Showing posts with label Sebastian Vettel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sebastian Vettel. Show all posts

31 December 2014

Concluding thoughts on the 2014 season

They say that hindsight is a wonderful thing, but, looking back, it seems obvious that 2014 was always going to be the year of the Silver Arrows. It may only have been last winter when the rumours materialised that Mercedes had stolen a march on fellow engine manufacturers Ferrari and Renault, but in reality the German marque's advantage was sealed a long time before that.

The introduction of a new generation of turbocharged hybrid power-units represented an opportunity for Mercedes, one that they had spotted long before anybody else. Under the stewardship of Ross Brawn, preparations for F1's new era were being made even before the new rules were announced, the team's technical department bolstered by the arrival of Bob Bell (who has since jumped ship to Ferrari), Aldo Costa and Geoff Willis in 2011.


Niki Lauda was brought on board the following year to lend the squad some political clout, helping to secure the team a better deal in Concorde Agreement negotiations and playing an instrumental role in convincing Lewis Hamilton to desert McLaren in favour of the three-pointed star. Paddy Lowe was the final piece of the puzzle, slotting alongside Toto Wolff as one of two 'executive directors' and effectively replacing Brawn, who was unable to continue in a role he found acceptable.

Combined with the vast resources at Mercedes' disposal - which dwarf those of the sport's other top teams when the headcount and budget of the High Performance Powertrains facility at Brixworth is taken into account - the inevitable result was a power-unit that was easily the class of the field, complemented by an equally capable chassis that was able to fully utilise its potency. What was more surprising than Mercedes' dominance was the way that its rivals dropped the ball.

From the outset, it was clear that the Adrian Newey-designed Red Bull RB10 was unlikely to carry Sebastian Vettel to a fifth consecutive title, but what wasn't so apparent was the extent to which Daniel Ricciardo would blossom in the environs of Milton Keynes following his two-year apprenticeship at Toro Rosso. Indeed, so accomplished were the Australian's performances - culminating in three victories, the only ones of the year that slipped through Mercedes' fingers - that he was acclaimed by many, including this writer, as the driver of the year.


Vettel's struggles to adapt to the new generation of car were seized upon by his critics as evidence that he isn't the driver his superlative record suggests. Being beaten by Ricciardo two years on the trot was simply not an option for the German, which was what led to him jumping ship to Ferrari to replace the McLaren-bound Fernando Alonso, safe in the knowledge that failure will likely be blamed upon the team rather than the driver. In any case, his new team-mate Kimi Raikkonen is unlikely to pose a great threat on the evidence of this year.

Like his compatriot Michael Schumacher before him, Vettel has the opportunity to mould the Scuderia around him, his arrival at Maranello co-inciding with a major upheaval within the team. Forming a close relationship with James Allison, whose grip over the technical department has been solidified by the departure of Pat Fry and Nicholas Tombazis, and Maurizio Arrivabene, the team's third team principal in nine months, will be key to future success for the four-time champion.

For a team that used to pride itself upon its engine-building prowess, 2014 was an embarrassment for Ferrari, the result being that long-time president Luca di Montezemelo finally fell on his sword. With Fiat-Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne now at the helm, the team must be patient and allow its new personnel to gel. It took Jean Todt four years to turn Ferrari into a championship-contending team in the 1990s, and a similar waiting period could well lie ahead under the new regime.


McLaren meanwhile may have had the choice power-unit, but for the second year in succession, the chassis produced by Woking wasn't up to the job. Alonso's gamble therefore is two-fold - not only will the Spaniard be praying for Honda's power-units to be of similar quality to their late 1980s offerings, but also that McLaren will rediscover how to construct a world-beating chassis. It's certainly not for want of resources or brainpower that the team has fallen short in that department.

Ron Dennis' return at the start of the year, with Eric Boullier drafted as his main lieutenant, promised to rectify the situation, with the return of Peter Prodromou from Red Bull aimed at bolstering a technical department that had leaked several big names to rival teams in recent years. But, if the way McLaren dithered over its choice to partner Jenson Button with Alonso is reflective of the speed that other key decisions are reached, it's doesn't bode well for a swift return to competitiveness.

Indeed, it appears that the two 'grandee' teams have been eclipsed by the leaner, more efficient operations of Red Bull and Brawn/Mercedes since the sport's previous major regulation change in 2009. Further evidence of this is the way that both McLaren and Ferrari were outflanked this year by Williams, who bounced back in spectacular style from their dismal 2013 with the help of Mercedes engines, Martini sponsorship, and the arrival of Felipe Massa alongside rising star Valtteri Bottas.


Third place in the constructors' standings is a remarkable achievement any way you cut it, but it says a lot about how quickly the team have progressed that Williams can feel aggrieved at not being closer to runner-up Red Bull. The FW36, the first to bear Pat Symonds' influence, was often the second-quickest car, but numerous points were squandered through simple operational and strategic errors of the sort the team's better-heeled rivals tend not to make.

While Williams' revival was one of the feel-good stories of the year, the battle between Mercedes team-mates Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg will be how the season is primarily remembered. An additional layer of intrigue to proceedings was provided by the duo's pre-existing friendship, which was stretched to the limit at Monaco after two fierce but ultimately good-natured wheel-to-wheel battles at Bahrain and Spain, both of which were won by Hamilton.

Rosberg's treachery or luck, depending on your viewpoint, at Monaco effectively brought down the curtain on the first 'act' of the season, in which Hamilton had the upper hand. The Brit could seemingly do nothing right for the next few races, only taking one (somewhat fortuitous) win at Silverstone during a mid-season purple patch for Rosberg. That came to an end in Belgium as the Mercedes pair made contact at Les Combes, which, in retrospect, was where Rosberg lost the title.


While he left Spa with an extra 18 points in his pocket over Hamilton, the ensuing recriminations within the team appeared to severely dent Rosberg's confidence, leading to his critical errors at Monza and Sochi as well as his lapse in the heat of battle at Austin. This handed the impetus back to Lewis, who is at his brilliant best in the role of the hunter rather than the hunted, Nico's fate sealed even without those costly car failures at Singapore and at the double-points Abu Dhabi finale.

The paddock must have sighed a collective breath of relief after the latter event, as the sport avoided the massive PR own-goal that would have been Rosberg taking the title on double points. The German himself surely would not have wanted that particular asterisk to taint his success in any case - far better to come back stronger next year now that the rule has thankfully been consigned to the scrapheap, along with the frankly ludicrous proposal to introduce standing restarts at the end of every safety car period.

That was just one talking point in one of the most politically eventful seasons in recent memory. At the centre of much of the controversy was, as ever, Bernie Ecclestone - from his criticism of the sound of the new power-units at the start of the year to the questionable way his Bavarian court case was resolved; from cosying up to Vladimir Putin at Sochi to claiming that the sport doesn't need to worry about attracting young fans, the 84-year-old was rarely out of the headlines all year.


All of that made it a rather surprising revelation when Ecclestone accepted blame for F1's financial problems - a perfect storm of ever-rising costs and an extremely inequitable distribution of the sport's income. This admission came after the two smallest outfits, Caterham and Marussia, both went into administration, finally buckling under the immense strain of competing at the highest level with so few resources. The latter had even managed to score two points at Monaco thanks to the exploits of Jules Bianchi, whose tragic accident at Suzuka left a black mark against the entire season.

The result was that only 18 cars took to the starting grid at Austin, the lowest number since early 2005. While the diminished field did little to undermine the spectacle, it meant that Sauber, who along with fellow cash-strapped outfits Force India and Lotus threatened to boycott the race, found itself at the very rear of the grid. While losing two relatively new and unsuccessful teams could be described as a shame rather than a disaster, shedding a team with a race-winning pedigree would be inexcusable for a sport that generates almost $2bn annually.

A cost cap was mooted by FIA President Jean Todt at the start of the year, but lacked the crucial support of Ecclestone and the top teams, and when Caterham and Marussia disappeared (the former successfully crowd-funding what is likely to prove a one-off return at Abu Dhabi), the spectre of the biggest teams fielding third cars loomed - the answer to a question that virtually nobody was asking, least of all the teams who would be hard-pressed to score any points at all if they were introduced.


When this suggestion was put to bed by Todt, the debate shifted to the wisdom of introducing such complex and costly new engines at a time when many teams were already struggling financially, and it's now thought that Bernie is pushing for a return to a simpler, cheaper and louder formula for 2016. This would inevitably put him on a collision course with Mercedes, who will argue that the true intention of such a change of direction is to prevent the Silver Arrows dominating for years to come.

The fact of the matter is however that, for all of the complaining and behind-the-scenes politicking, the new regulations have proved a hit, providing excellent racing at all but a small handful of Grands Prix, even if one team has done a much better job than anybody else. The question F1 must ask itself is whether such excellence should be penalised in the name of 'the show' - and if the answer is yes, there are surely more transparent ways of doing so than messing with what has so far proven a successful formula and risk driving out one of the sport's most prestigious names.

Even if the regulations could be amended in a way that Mercedes found acceptable in the name of cost reduction, it wouldn't address the fundamental problem that the top teams receive such exorbitant sums from the commercial rights holder. With the bigger operations understandably unwilling to shell out on shoring up the minnows, and the governing body powerless to overrule the will of the majority, the onus is on the CRH to sacrifice a small portion of its immediate profits in the interest of the sport - or risk that its precious cash cow stops producing milk altogether.


While F1 threatened to tear itself apart, other forms of motorsport quietly made steady progress in 2014. The World Endurance Championship went from strength to strength, with returnee Porsche winning the final race of a season that largely belonged to Toyota. Securing both the drivers' and manufacturers' crowns courtesy of Anthony Davidson and Sebastien Buemi, the only prize the Japanese auto giant missed out on was the big one: victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans.

Instead, Audi scooped a 13th triumph at the French endurance classic, on virtue of reliability rather than outright pace, but enjoyed little success elsewhere - and the competition is only going to get tougher in 2015 as Nissan makes it a four-way fight in the top division. Rumours of the Ingolstadt marque throwing its hat into the F1 ring were rife in the autumn; the tougher the going gets in the WEC, the more attractive a proposal that could seem, particularly if Porsche takes over as the VW-Audi Group's standard-bearer at Le Mans.

Interest in the WEC was boosted by Porsche's return, its driver line-up spearheaded by F1 convert Mark Webber. Next year, Nico Hulkenberg will race for the team at Le Mans alongside his Force India commitments, and it will be fascinating to see how many other Grand Prix regulars attempt a similar balancing act in years to come. Alonso, who conspicuously visited the WEC paddock at Bahrain, has made little attempt to disguise his desire to race at Le Mans in the not-too-distant future, a move that would surely send interest in endurance racing through the roof.


Across the pond, IndyCar was bolstered by the return of Juan Pablo Montoya after a largely fruitless seven-year spell in NASCAR, but it was the Colombian's Penske team-mates Will Power and Helio Castroneves who were the main stars of the show - the former taking an overdue maiden title and the latter narrowly missing out on a fourth Indy 500 victory to Ryan Hunter-Reay in a thrilling climax. The introduction of aero kits next year to differentiate the spec Dallara cars that make up the field is the series' next step on its long and arduous road to recovery.

NASCAR meanwhile courted controversy with the introduction of an all-new Chase for the Cup format, which sought to place a greater emphasis on winning races. How ironic it was, then, that Ryan Newman, who failed to win all year, came perilously close to making a mockery of the entire season at the Homestead finale - luckily, the rightful champion by any metric, Kevin Harvick, was not to be denied that day. While not universally popular, the revamped Chase certainly injected some vigour into a series that has been struggling to captivate a new audience in recent years.

Speaking of new audiences, Formula E enjoyed an auspicious start at Beijing, where a last-lap, last-corner clash between Nico Prost and Nick Heidfeld ensured that the all-electric championship's first race made the headlines the next day. The two subsequent rounds may not have been as dramatic, but it seems the championship has done as well as could be hoped in capturing the imagination of the public. Whether it can become a genuine rival to F1 in the future is another question altogether, though.


Indeed, for all of its ongoing political strife, F1 remains the focal point of motorsport, boasting as it does the world's best known drivers and teams - which is precisely the point of those contentious bonus payments to the biggest outfits. What Ecclestone and his paymasters seemingly fail to grasp is that the mid-size and smaller concerns are equally crucial to the sport's health, a lesson they may end up learning the hard way if 2015 doesn't herald a radical change of direction.

24 September 2014

Alonso and the Silly Season That Keeps On Giving

In all the 15 years I've been following Formula One, I cannot remember the driver market being as unsettled as it is currently at such a late stage of the season.

By this time last year, we knew that Kimi Raikkonen was on his way to Ferrari; the previous year, the world was aware by late September of the news that Lewis Hamilton had turned his back on McLaren in favour of Mercedes.

There seems to be a growing feeling in the paddock that there may yet be a silly season bombshell of comparable magnitude this year too, despite noises being made by the 'big four' teams to the contrary in recent weeks.

The key man is Fernando Alonso, whose future has been subject to all kinds of speculation for quite some time now despite the Spaniard having a contract to remain at Ferrari until the end of 2016.

Such lengthy deals always tend to have get-out clauses, and it appears that the Scuderia's lacklustre showing this year has triggered a performance clause that has led Alonso to start playing hardball with the newly-installed Ferrari management.


It has been said that Alonso wants a bonus payment for every point earned, not dissimilar to the ertswhile arrangement between Raikkonen and Lotus that almost bankrupted the Enstone outfit.

While Ferrari could undoubtedly afford such a deal, the Italian team is renowned for its dislike of drivers who see themselves as bigger than the collective - and the scent given by Alonso's negotiating tactics is hardly one of being a team player dedicated to the Maranello cause.

Still considered the sport's finest operator by many, Alonso has other options should Ferrari refuse to bow to their star driver's demands. McLaren have been making behind-the-scenes moves to try and lure the 33-year-old for getting on for a year now - so if Alonso's brinksmanship fails, he can be safe in the knowledge that Woking would welcome him back with open arms.

But, moving to McLaren in the first year of its new partnership with Honda - whose engines, it is easily forgotten, were far from the class of the field during the Japanese marque's most recent foray into F1 - would be a big risk, especially when 2015 will be the first full season for Ferrari's promising new regime headed by Sergio Marchionne, Marco Mattiacci and James Allison.

A switch to McLaren may not be Alonso's only option however. The big rumour doing the rounds in Singapore was that Alonso could be on the cusp of switching seats with Red Bull's Sebastian Vettel, an accusation denied by both.

But, that was before the full story of Alonso's negotiations with his team had come to light, and Vettel has long been believed to be at the top of Ferrari's shopping list in the event of Maranello needing a new lead driver.


The way he's been outperformed by new team-mate Daniel Ricciardo must have made the thought of dissolving what is currently the longest-standing team/driver partnership on the grid cross Vettel's mind, especially since his favoured race engineer Guillaume Rocquelin, who has steered the German to four world titles, will no longer be by his side next year. And that's before you consider Adrian Newey taking more of a hands-off role once he's laid the foundations for next year's Red Bull.

But, the prospect of joining a McLaren team seemingly incapable of manufacturing a winning chassis will have hardly tempted Vettel to fly the Red Bull nest. A seat at Ferrari may be a different matter, though - if nothing else, the German would conclude he would easily have the measure of Kimi Raikkonen as a team-mate, whereas being beaten by Danny Ric two years on the trot simply isn't an option.

Even if Vettel were to conclude that his interests are best served by staying put, there's always a chance that Ferrari could orchestrate a swap between Alonso and Ricciardo.

Deserting the team that gave him his big break might seem inadvisable for the Australian, but you can hardly underestimate the potential lure of being drafted in by Ferrari to lead a new era in the team's history. Such a move didn't work out too badly for a certain M. Schumacher, after all.

Then there's Mercedes, which would probably be the team Alonso (along with just about every other driver on the grid) would opt to join if he had free choice.

But, with Nico Rosberg having signed a two-year extension to his contract earlier this year, the only route to Brackley for Alonso would be, as has been suggested in some quarters, if the Spaniard were to exchange seats with Lewis Hamilton, who still has a year to run on his contract.

Such a scenario taking place means Hamilton would have to lose the title to Rosberg in particularly acrimonious style - far from impossible to imagine, but an unlikely prospect now that the Brit has taken the lead of the championship following a seventh victory of the season at Singapore last weekend.

An unlikelier prospect still, however, is the latest story to emerge from the rumour mill turning into reality - that Alonso is bound for the cash-strapped Lotus team.

The disgraced former boss of the Enstone outfit, Flavio Briatore, is said to be trying to broker a deal for Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll (who has also been linked to purchasing Sauber and Marussia in recent weeks) to buy the team and pay for the services of Alonso, as well as the Mercedes engines that the team are ostensibly unable to afford under the current ownership.


Of all the options Alonso may or may not have, surely this one can be written off immediately. Finding a buyer would not miraculously transform Lotus's fortunes overnight; it would be a long-term project nurturing the team back to full competitiveness, probably at least three years - by which point, Alonso would be 36 years old and perhaps a little beyond his prime.

If joining McLaren would be a gamble, plumping for Lotus would be tantamount to re-mortgaging your house, flying out to Vegas and sticking the entire sum on zero at the roulette table.

So, where does all of that leave Alonso? Much depends on the outcome of the negotiations with Ferrari. A move to Mercedes (at least in 2015) looks to be a non-starter; perhaps it's not a surprise that those particular rumblings emerged from the Spanish press, who would no doubt love to see their darling cruise to a long overdue third world championship with a dominant car beneath him.

Of the remaining three options, Red Bull would be the only one worth deserting Ferrari in favour of at this stage. That would require one of the two incumbents at Milton Keynes to move in the opposite direction - a possibility, but only if a swap was arranged by the Scuderia.

Mattiacci's slightly cryptic response to the latest questions about Alonso's future at Singapore is telling. What it indicates is that Ferrari are no longer willing to bend over backwards to accommodate Alonso's every whim - after all, for a team that so famously values loyalty, what is a contract that allows the Spaniard to leave at the first sign of a vacancy emerging at a rival team really worth?

Of course, it's quite possible that Alonso and Ferrari will settle their differences and agree to continue for at least one more year, giving Maranello one final chance to finally rise to the challenge of producing the world-beating car its resources are capable of delivering after five seasons of falling short.

But, such a deal would almost certainly have to be written to allow Alonso to jump ship for 2016 if certain performance-related conditions are not met.


And, if Ferrari fails to come up with the goods again next year, we'll be left with more or less exactly the same scenario - except that Alonso will be one year closer to retirement, perhaps a little more desperate to find a way out of his long-term deal, and that a move to Mercedes or Red Bull may be a more viable prospect than it is currently.

Wherever Alonso moves next - if he does choose to depart Ferrari - is likely to be the place he sees out his F1 career; his decision consequently could well come to define his legacy.

Three titles have already slipped through his fingers, and no doubt several more will too if his choice, whatever it may be, turns out to be the wrong one.

16 August 2014

F1 Mid-season Driver Ratings 2014

With the F1 fraternity enjoying the last week of its summer break before returning to action at Spa-Francorchamps next weekend, it's time to reveal my mid-season driver ratings in what has so far been a spectacular season of racing:

Lewis Hamilton (GB, Mercedes) 2nd in Championship, 5 wins, 4 poles, 191pts              
Rating: A-

Had this post been written just after the Spanish Grand Prix, where Hamilton took a fourth successive win after another tight battle with Nico Rosberg, it would be hard to award the Briton anything other than full marks. But, since that infamous qualifying session in Monaco, it's the German who has gained the upper hand between the two Mercedes team-mates.

One particularly illuminating stat is that every time Hamilton hasn't been on pole, he has been outqualified by Rosberg - a poor reflection on a driver whose single lap pace is often regarded as his strongest suit. Admittedly, car troubles at Hockenheim and the Hungaroring have played their part, but then again so have crucial errors at the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone.

Hamilton was fortunate that gearbox failure for Rosberg at Silverstone allowed him to claw back precious ground in the championship, but his recovery drives at the following two races were both masterclasses in damage limitation. Beating his title adversary at Hungary despite his pitlane start in particular will have given the 2008 champion a vital psychological boost going into the latter half of the year.

Nico Rosberg (D, Mercedes) 1st in Championship, 4 wins, 6 poles, 202 pts
Rating: A 

After the Spanish Grand Prix, where Rosberg was beaten by Hamilton for a fourth time in succession, many were beginning to question whether the destiny of the title was already decided; whether the German could possibly mount a fight-back from such a position of weakness. But, since then, Rosberg has lived up to the title favourite billing with which many observers had assigned him pre-season.

Whatever your thoughts on the events of qualifying at Monaco, it was Rosberg who had set the quicker first run in Q3 - going on to outqualify Hamilton in the next three races. The points leader was also unfortunate to lose potential victories in both Canada and Britain to mechanical woes, while the timing of the safety car in Hungary was also unfortunate, though that doesn't fully excuse Rosberg from ultimately finishing behind his team-mate.

It's unlikely that Rosberg is going to have a better opportunity to win the title than the one he has this season, and so far he has proven he has both the speed and the mental fortitude to get the job done. Unreliability has had a part in tilting the scales in Nico's favour, but his sheer consistency and coolness in the face of adversity have played an equally important role.

Sebastian Vettel (D, Red Bull) 6th in Championship, 2 podiums, 88pts
Rating: 

A combination of Mercedes supremacy and the loss of the exhaust-blown diffuser meant that Vettel was always going to be in for a harder time in 2014 than he had become accustomed to in his championship years. But, few could have predicted the struggle the four-time champion has endured in his bid to get on top of the new regulations, as well as his ultra-quick new team-mate Daniel Ricciardo.

Indeed, on just one occasion when both Red Bull cars have finished has Vettel beaten Ricciardo, on home turf at Hockenheim, where the latter lost time avoiding the Massa-Magnussen collision, while the German has been soundly beaten in qualifying 7-4. That's not to say that Vettel has driven poorly, but he has clearly failed to extract the most from the RB10 this year.

Daniel Ricciardo (AU, Red Bull) 3rd in Championship, 2 wins, 131pts
Rating: A+ 

The only man not blessed with a Mercedes to have tasted victory this season, Ricciardo has started to deliver on the promise shown in his junior career and his two years at Toro Rosso, becoming a bona fide part of the sport's elite crop of drivers. In fact, he's been the revelation of the season, making his far more illustrious team-mate Vettel look rather average by comparison.

Finishing second in front of his home fans prior to his disqualification at Melbourne set the tone for a season that has been full of great drives, Ricciardo shaking off his previous reputation of being a strong qualifier but a mediocre racer. Both of his wins in Canada and Hungary may have owed something to good fortune, but on each occasion the Aussie made the most of the golden opportunity presented to him.

Fernando Alonso (E, Ferrari) 4th in Championship, 2 podiums, 115pts
Rating: A+

Despite the enormous frustration of Ferrari being yet again unable to provide him with a title contending car in 2014, Alonso has done nothing to dissuade his supporters of their view that he remains the best driver in the business. Indeed, while team-mate Kimi Raikkonen has finished inside the top six just once, the Spaniard has managed to finish in at least that position at every race bar one - at Bahrain, where he sarcastically celebrated a ninth place finish at a track where the F14 T's deficiencies were ruthlessly exposed.

The highlight undoubtedly came in Hungary, where a gamble on tyre strategy very nearly yielded the unlikeliest of victories. It was nevertheless refreshing to see Alonso back in the spotlight having finished a superb second, after so many races where similar heroics have gone rather unnoticed amid a backdrop of Mercedes domination.

Kimi Raikkonen (FIN, Ferrari) 12th in Championship, 27pts
Rating: D

Unquestionably the disappointment of the season, Raikkonen has for much of 2014 seemed a shadow of his former self, struggling to adapt to the handling characteristics of this year's new breed of machinery. Beating Alonso was always going to be a tall order, but nobody was expecting the Finn to be trounced quite so soundly by the two-time champion heading into the season.

The statistics in this regard speak for themselves: just twice this season has Raikkonen out-qualified Alonso in 11 races, while the Finn hasn't finished ahead once. The fact he was denied a likely podium by a collision with backmarker Max Chilton at Monaco - the one circuit where Raikkonen looked to truly have the measure of Alonso - just about summed up his year so far. Will it be his last in the sport? 

Jenson Button (GB, McLaren) 8th in Championship, 1 podium, 60pts
Rating: B+ 

Casual observers would be forgiven for thinking that, considering all the speculation surrounding his future, Button has suffered a rather mediocre season thus far. But, the reality is that the Brit has performed consistently well given the limitations of his machinery, responding positively to the threat of new team-mate Kevin Magnussen after the shock of being beaten first time out at Melbourne.

The qualifying battle between the pair stands at 6-5 in Button's favour, fourth places at Montreal and Silverstone ranking as the 34-year-old's best performances of the season. But, while he has had the measure of Magnussen at the vast majority of races this year, anything less would have been considered disastrous - you still can't help but wonder whether Button is the right man to lead McLaren going forward. 

Kevin Magnussen (DK, McLaren) 10th in Championship, 1 podium, 37pts
Rating: B

Hopes were already high for Magnussen when he arrived as the sport's new kid on the block at Melbourne, and after a phenomenal drive to second at the curtain-raiser, comparisons with Hamilton, the last rookie McLaren took a chance on, were being bandied about with eyebrow-raising frequency. That pressure might explain why Magnussen's subsequent performances were slightly more fraught, notwithstanding his machinery's competitive slump.

That he has the speed to challenge team-mate Button isn't in doubt; but his inexperience at stringing together complete race weekends had been evident. More recently however, Magnussen has begun to mature into a more consistent performer, his seventh place finish at Austria standing out as his most impressive post-Australia result. Expect him to give \Button a harder time from now until the end of the year.

Felipe Massa (BR, Williams) 9th in Championship, 1 pole, 40pts
Rating: B-

If Massa knew deep down during his time at Ferrari that matching the standard set by Alonso would be nigh-on impossible, he must have arrived at Williams this season confident of putting upstart team-mate Valtteri Bottas in his place. But, far from stamping his authority over the far less experienced Finn, the veteran Brazilian has been outscored by a ratio of two-to-one and outqualified 7-4.

True enough, plenty of points have gone begging thanks to incidents that weren't his fault and team blunders early in the year, but Massa hasn't made enough of the pace of the Williams when things have gone his way - Austria, where he took pole but lost out to Bottas to come home fourth, being a prime example. His self-inflicted retirement at Hockenheim was also inexcusable for a driver of Massa's experience.

Valtteri Bottas (FIN, Williams) 5th in Championship, 3 podiums, 95pts
Rating: 

If Ricciardo has been the stand-out young driver of 2014 so far, then Bottas has to come a close second, spearheading this year's Williams renaissance and convincingly shading stablemate Massa. The only major error the Finn has made all season was at Melbourne, where he threw away a likely second place, but he has atoned for that more recently with three consecutive podium visits.

The first of these came at Austria, Bottas beating polesitting teammate Massa in a straight fight to clinch the final podium spot behind the two Mercedes. His charge from 14th on the grid to second at Silverstone was one of the drives of the season, while holding off Hamilton to repeat the result two weeks later at Hockenheim was another measured performance by a driver who seems destined for big things.

Nico Hulkenberg (D, Force India), 7th in Championship, 69pts
Rating: B+ 

Returning to Force India after a season at Sauber, Hulkenberg has proven solid rather than spectacular this year so far. Where team-mate Sergio Perez took the team's most eye-catching result with third at Bahrain, Hulkenberg hasn't finished higher than fifth - though he has done so on four occasions, scoring the lion's share of Force India's constructors' points as a result.

The German has also outqualified his younger team-mate 9-2, and, prior to the Hungarian Grand Prix, he shared the honour with Alonso of being the only driver to have scored points in every race. His ill-judged overtaking move on Perez nonetheless left the Ferrari driver in a class of one in that respect, but that has been the sole blot on an otherwise very neat copybook.

Sergio Perez (MEX, Force India), 11th in Championship, 1 podium, 29pts
Rating: B-

While Perez was massively unlucky to join McLaren last season at the team's lowest ebb in over 30 years, the Mexican has equally proved fortunate to have arrived at Force India just as the Silverstone-based team has got itself in a position to fight for its best ever constructors' finish. Indeed, a superb podium finish at Bahrain by Perez immediately bettered his best finish of fifth achieved last season.

But, since then, things have been decidedly up-and-down for the 24-year-old. He cost himself potential strong finishes at both Monaco and Canada, where, in hindsight, Perez should have been more circumspect defending from Massa given his car's brake problems. A storming drive to sixth at Austria followed, but Perez needs to find more consistency if he's ever to put himself back in contention for a top-line drive.

The Rest

It would be fair to say that Jean-Eric Vergne (B) faced an impossible task this season this season having missed out on the promotion to Red Bull to Ricciardo, but it's one he has performed admirably in spite of Toro Rosso's poor reliability, picking up four points finishes and out-qualifying his team-mate 6-5.

Vergne's only problem is that his team-mate is Daniil Kvyat (B+), who became the sport's youngest ever points-scorer at Melbourne and has belied his inexperience with his consistent pace since. The Russian is already shaping up nicely as Red Bull's next star to slot alongside Ricciardo when Vettel decides to leave, leaving Vergne in a rather tricky situation.

Romain Grosjean (B)  has had to endure a trying season with Lotus after his heroics in the second half of 2013, squeezing just eight points out of what has been the worst car to come out of Enstone in more than a decade. Qualifying fifth at Spain was a particular highlight for the Frenchman, who has done more than enough to warrant better machinery for next year.

Indeed, Grosjean has hammered team-mate Pastor Maldonado (E), who despite now being in his fourth season in F1 continues to make errors that would be barely excusable for a novice. Worse still, he's been outqualified 10-1 by Grosjean - and qualifying is meant to be the Venezuelan's forté. He must be breathing a sigh of relief that his PDVSA backing has bought him at least one more season with Lotus.

Adrian Sutil (C) is hardly one to outperform the machinery at his disposal, so it shouldn't come as any real surprise that he's yet to get on the scoreboard in this year's dismal Sauber, a pair of 11th places standing as the German's best results. Whether he keeps his seat for next year will largely depend on money, though this year has arguably proved that the 31-year-old is past his sell-by date at this level.

The fate of Esteban Gutierrez (D) will also be determined primarily by what cash is available, but on merit the young Mexican has done little to suggest he deserves a third season at Sauber. He has outqualified Sutil 6-5, but his race performances have largely been scrappy, with his mistake at Monaco costing the Hinwil-based team its only realistic shot at points this season so far.

Jules Bianchi (A-) on the other hand was superb at Monaco, his reward being the first two points of his career and Marussia's existence. The Frenchman, who has also made two Q2 visits in the least three races, has predictably had the measure of team-mate Max Chilton (C-) and is surely set for greener pastures next year while the Brit's F1 career looks to be heading nowhere fast.

It's been a difficult return to the sport for Caterham's Kamui Kobayashi (C+), who has done about as well as could be expected, even making Q2 in Melbourne, but is nonetheless far from certain to see out the year. Marcus Ericsson (D) meanwhile has been singularly unspectacular, never qualifying higher than 20th; the Swede needs to do more relative to his team-mate if he ever wants to shake off his 'pay driver' tag.

18 June 2014

From Melbourne to Montreal: The Story of 2014 So Far

First of all, allow me to apologise for my lack of activity since my last post on this blog some two-and-a-half months ago. In that time, I have finished my degree and the other site for which I have been busy writing, Sportontap.com, has become non-operational for the time being – so I should have more time to devote to updating this blog for at least the next few months. Now we’re (roughly) a third of the way through the 2014 season, a review of the year so far seems as appropriate a way as any to resume my blogging career.

The defining feature of the season so far has of course been the emergence of Mercedes as a hegemonic force to rival any other seen throughout F1 history. Winning the first six races of the year in a row has given the Brackley-based team a record surpassed only by McLaren in their all-conquering 1988 season, and such was their degree of dominance at supposedly non-Mercedes friendly tracks such as Catalunya and Monaco that many had begun to predict a Silver Arrows clean sweep of wins this year. 

Alas, more or less simultaneous MGU-K failures for both cars at Montreal put paid to any such aspirations, although beating the record of 15 wins in a season remains a distinct possibility for Mercedes.

But, while Mercedes has the constructors’ championship in the bag already, calling the outcome of the drivers’ championship is a far more difficult task. Following his fourth successive triumph in Spain, it seemed as if Hamilton had gathered unstoppable momentum – but then came Monaco. 

In many ways, it was a race Rosberg really could not afford to lose, and regardless of whether you believe his incident in qualifying was a nefarious ploy to prevent Hamilton from taking the all-important pole position (for the record, I do not), the German drove an immaculate race under immense pressure to re-ignite a title challenge that had hitherto seemed in danger of wilting.

Rosberg followed this up with a dogged run to second place behind the victorious Ricciardo at Montreal two weeks later despite being hobbled by a loss of some 160 horsepower, which arguably was an even more impressive display than victory at his 'home' race.

Much like at China, where Rosberg suffered from a loss of telemetry, damage limitation became the name of the game once the energy recovery problems struck – one which he played to perfection, keeping Sergio Perez’s Force India (which, admittedly, had issues of its own) at bay lap after lap in spite of his Mercedes’ considerable power loss. 

Though Rosberg was unlikely to ever hang on to the victory once Ricciardo found a way past Perez, the 18 points the German picked up on Sunday could prove crucial when the title fight reaches its climax in November.

Just as was the case following Melbourne, Hamilton now has to win the next four races on the trot, assuming Rosberg were to come second each time, in order to wrest back the championship lead. But, this will be a considerably taller order now that Rosberg has proven he can just about match Hamilton’s pace in qualifying and that, by the time we reach the summer break, Red Bull may well have just about hauled themselves into contention for wins on merit.

It may be through no fault of his own that Hamilton finds himself in arrears of Rosberg, but, then again, were the Englishman to eventually triumph regardless, his achievement would arguably be all the greater for it.

Speaking of luck, Ricciardo’s maiden Grand Prix victory on Sunday may have been more than a little fortuitous, but it was nonetheless a just reward for what has been an utterly stellar season for the Australian so far. 

Few pundits were giving Ricciardo any hope of matching his more illustrious teammate Sebastian Vettel coming into the season, but on the four occasions this year that both Red Bull RB10s have made it as far as the chequered flag, car #3 has beaten #1 every time. In fact, if not for his disqualification at Melbourne and his mechanical maladies at Malaysia, Ricciardo would now be just 31 points of shy of Rosberg in the drivers’ standings. 

It’s always refreshing to see a driver whose talent had been masked by a lack of adequate machinery finally show the world what he’s made of, but the sense of satisfaction at seeing Ricciardo standing atop the podium in Canada was made all the larger by the 24-year-old’s warm demeanour, easy-going charm and winning smile which make him an ideal ambassador of the sport. 

Not only that, but Ricciardo has succeeded in shaking off the reputation he acquired during his time at Toro Rosso – that of being a good qualifier but an average racer – as well as confounding those who were sceptical of Red Bull’s decision to select him to replace outgoing countryman Mark Webber last autumn.

In fact, based on the evidence of this year, Ricciardo looks the more likely man to spearhead a potential Red Bull title challenge in 2015 of the Anglo-Austrian team’s two drivers. That’s bad news for Vettel, who clearly is yet to fully get to grips with the loss of the exhaust-blown diffuser that was so crucial to his dominance last season. 

With this year’s title clearly out of reach already, the four-time champion would be well advised to focus on using the remaining 12 race weekends of this year to refine his driving style to suit the nuances of the new regulations in the way that others, not least of all Ricciardo, have clearly been able to. Should he fail to do so, it may be that history comes to look upon his four world titles a little less favourably than would otherwise have been the case.

At least Vettel can take comfort in the fact that Red Bull’s star designer Adrian Newey is going nowhere fast, even if, as was recently confirmed, he plans to take something of a back seat once he has laid the foundations for the team’s 2015 challenger. 

There has even been suggestion that Newey could switch his attentions to designing a bespoke Red Bull engine to replace the Renault unit, which, while much improved compared to the start of the year, continues to lag behind its Mercedes counterpart in terms of power and the efficiency of its energy recovery systems. 

Rumours were abound that Red Bull might try to lure a new engine manufacturer such as VW into the sport, but the fact that the Hanover marque has recently re-iterated its commitment to rallying until 2019 makes an alliance with the German auto giant an unlikely prospect.

Ferrari reputedly offered Newey a salary of $30m to depart Red Bull and join the ranks of Maranello, which would have put him behind only Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton among the drivers in terms of remuneration, but even that wasn’t enough to convince the 55-year-old to leave a team whose success in which he has played a central role.

Then again, you have to question the extent to which Newey’s presence would actually help a team whose technical department can already boast such renowned names as James Allison, Pat Fry, Nicholas Tombazis and Loic Bigois. 

As Allison recently alluded to, Ferrari’s biggest problem is that their engineers are not given the breathing space they need by the management to deliver the best results. Whether this will occur under the stewardship of Marco Mattiacci, the successor to the now-departed Stefano Domenicali as Ferrari team principal, remains to be seen.

It has certainly been a testing year so far for the Scuderia, whose best result so far in 2014 has been a distant third place behind the two Mercedes drivers at China courtesy of Alonso. 

Indeed, unless the team are able to make some serious performance gains with the troublesome F14 T, Ferrari could well end the year winless for the first time in 20 years – a state of affairs that will no doubt be leaving Alonso wondering whether he can afford to wait much longer for the team to get its house in order if he is to finally take that third world title he so badly craves. 

Overtures to Mercedes were reportedly made, but there’s no room in the Brackley inn for the Spaniard in the short term; ditto at Red Bull, who are said to have taken up their option to retain Ricciardo for 2015 after his Canadian victory. 

A return to McLaren can’t be ruled out for Alonso, but their performances this season, combined with the return of Ron Dennis, make such a move a considerably less attractive prospect than it was six months ago.

Since the first race of the season, after which McLaren led the constructors’ standings thanks to Kevin Magnussen and Jenson Button finishing second and third respectively, it’s been mostly downhill for the Woking équipe, who have somehow managed to translate the vast resources at their disposal into a fundamentally flawed car for the second year in succession. 

McLaren certainly cannot afford to drop the ball for a third year running if they are to please their new engine partners Honda, although the potential early arrival of former Red Bull chief aerodynamicist Peter Prodromou (in exchange for Red Bull's Dan Fallows staying put despite supposedly having signed to join McLaren) should help to ensure that this isn’t the case. 

Securing the services of Alonso would be another huge coup for a team which would appear to lack the driving strength for a full-blown assault on the championship, with Button surely now past his prime and Magnussen ostensibly struggling to re-capture the dazzling form he displayed during his F1 debut at Melbourne. 

On race pace, McLaren have been by far the least impressive of the Mercedes-powered teams so far this year. Williams have been consistently quick, even if errors by both team and driver have served to cost them a considerable number of points – not least of all at Canada where, a slow pit-stop for Felipe Massa deprived the team of a possible win. 

Instead, the Brazilian ended his race in the barrier after a coming together with Sergio Perez’s Force India, who himself may have triumphed if not for brake failure late in the race.

It’s been an up-and-down season so far for the Mexican, who has outshone teammate Nico Hulkenberg more often than was perhaps expected but has predictably lacked the metronomic consistency of the German, who has scored points at every single race (only Rosberg and Alonso have managed likewise). Indeed, Force India have a very solid chance of gaining their best ever constructors’ placing if McLaren can’t get their act together in fairly short order.

Elsewhere, Lotus has made significant progress, going from being barely able to string 10 laps together in testing to qualifying fifth on merit at Spain courtesy of Romain Grosjean in the space of just over two months. 

Although the Frenchman has not had the machinery at his disposal needed to continue where he left off at the end of his remarkable 2013 campaign, he can take solace in the fact that the contrast between he and his older, more experienced and (on paper, at least) more illustrious teammate Pastor Maldonado could scarcely be greater. 

Such has been the frequency of the 29-year-old’s mistakes this year that you would have a hard time convincing someone new to the sport that this is Maldonado’s fourth year at this level. Should the Venezuelan state oil cash dry up, there’s no way he would retain his seat at Lotus on merit as things stand, especially when there have been so many youngsters showing great promise this year.

Chief among these is 20-year-old Toro Rosso driver Daniil Kvyat, who has been seriously impressive during the first seven races of what is already shaping up to be a long and successful career at the highest level – further evidence, were it required, that Red Bull know what they’re doing when it comes to driver choices. 

Also worthy of mention is Valtteri Bottas, who, despite not having had any more opportunities to ascend the podium since his brush with the barriers at Melbourne, has been in the points every race so far bar one. 

That race was Monaco, where another precocious talent by the name of Jules Bianchi turned in one of the performances of the year so far to record his and his Marussia team’s first ever points with a sublime ninth place finish.

Should a vacancy emerge at Ferrari next year, they could do far worse than take a chance on the young Frenchman, who is, after all, the most senior member of the Ferrari Driver Academy scheme.

Bianchi’s result puts Marussia up in a dizzying ninth place in the constructors’ standings, ahead of not only perennial rivals Caterham, who could now well end up being sold to the new Forza Rossa outfit, (thus keeping the 2015 entry at 22 cars now that Gene Haas has wisely deferred his entry into the sport to 2016), but also Sauber. 

The Swiss team have struggled with an overweight Ferrari customer power-train, which required a major overhaul of the Sauber chassis for the start of the European season to bring it closer to the minimum weight limit, and a driver line-up frankly incapable of producing the heroics seen during the last two seasons courtesy of Messrs Hulkenberg and Perez. 

Indeed, both Adrian Sutil and Esteban Gutierrez threw away the chance to finally get some points on the board at Monaco, both having appeared to have fallen into the trap of over-driving what has to be one of the worst cars (if not the worst) to have come out of Hinwil in the team’s history. And, with the team already in a desperate financial situation, Sauber’s potential lowest ever constructors’ position could hardly come at a worse time.

This weekend sees the circus return to the Red Bull Ring (née A1 Ring) for the first time in 11 years, where, barring a repeat of the problems seen last time out at Canada, the thrilling battle for supremacy between Mercedes teammates Hamilton and Rosberg looks set to recommence.

There’ll be no F1 posts for a little while as I’m off to France for a holiday next week, but look out later in the week for my thoughts on last weekend’s 24 Hours of Le Mans endurance classic, which I was fortunate enough to attend for a fifth time this year. 

21 December 2013

Concluding thoughts on 2013

If I were to sum up the 2013 Formula One season in one word, it would probably be "disappointing". Off the back of 2012, most fans were expecting another ultra-close contest, but, in the event, however, nobody could truly compete with the irresistible combination of Sebastian Vettel and the Adrian Newey-designed Red Bull RB9.

It took until Pirelli's mid-season revision of its tyres, prompted by the spectacular series of tyre failures that threatened to reduce the British Grand Prix to a level of farce comparable to the 2005 United States Grand Prix, before the Red Bull could truly stretch its legs. The fact the tyres were made more durable allowed Vettel to fully express the superiority of the package beneath him which had previously been disguised to a degree by the rapid tyre degradation that characterised many of the early races.

The key to Red Bull's success was their relentless rate of development. Every modification they brought to the track made a tangible difference to their car's pace, whilst certain other teams - notably Ferrari - struggled to consistently make forward steps. The Italian team's technical director Pat Fry admitted that the title began to slip from Fernando Alonso's grasp around the time of the Canadian Grand Prix, when a major update package failed to deliver the expected progress.

The tyre changes didn't help either, rendering moot the Ferrari's best characteristic, its tendency to preserve its rubber during the race. But, even by the time the revised tyres were introduced in earnest in Hungary, Alonso was already all but out of the running for the title. The fact he still managed to finish a clear second in the championship despite having only the fourth best car by season's end is testament to the Spaniard's uncanny ability to maximise his (often limited) scoring opportunities at virtually every race.

The debate as to whether Vettel or Alonso is the better driver rages on, the 2013 season doing little to provide a conclusive judgement one way or the other. Whilst I rated the former as the best driver of the season in my recent top 10, that largely boils down to his ostensibly unrivaled ability to adapt his driving technique to the rigours of the Coanda-assisted cars. Put the pair in a midfield car, and I would expect Alonso to perhaps squeeze out a couple more points than Vettel over the course of a season.

The contention that Vettel must prove himself with a team other than Red Bull in order to cement his place among the greats is nonetheless a somewhat churlish one. After all, Ayrton Senna's failure to win titles for any team besides McLaren is not counted against him, whilst had Michael Schumacher won all seven of his titles at Ferrari, it's doubtful, looking back, fans would think any the less of him for it. Jim Clark, meanwhile, never even drove for any team besides Lotus, let alone win titles for a rival outfit.

That said, sooner or later, Vettel will have to accept not having the best car in the field at his disposal - perhaps as soon as next year if the widespread prediction that Mercedes have produced the best power-train proves correct. But, chances are, should Red Bull experience a fall from grace, it won't take long for Vettel to re-align himself with whichever team are setting the standard. Schumacher's record of seven titles, it must be said, looks vulnerable at this stage.

The realisation that Vettel won't be around forever is what informed Red Bull's decision to recruit Daniel Ricciardo as Mark Webber's replacement off the back of an assured second season at Toro Rosso. Whilst the wide-smiling Aussie is hardly likely to deprive his new teammate of much sleep next season, he has the chance to establish himself as the team's main hope if and when Vettel decides the time is right to forsake the organisation that has helped him to so much success.

When that day arrives, my money would be firmly on Daniil Kvyat, who will be making his F1 debut in place of Ricciardo at Toro Rosso next season, making the step up to the senior Red Bull team. Whilst the young Russian could probably have used a season of Friday test sessions, his rate of improvement in GP3 - of which he was the undisputed king for the final three race weekends - suggests he should be able to find his feet at the highest level quickly. Jean-Eric Vergne best have his wits about him next season.

In a year of disappointments, Mercedes' performance this season was one of the few positive surprises. Vaulting from fifth in the constructors' standings in 2012 to second this year, the W04 was the only car over a single lap that could hold a candle to the Red Bull. Though it almost invariably chewed its tyres during the races, three race wins and eight pole positions is a level of achievement few would have foreseen the Silver Arrows reaching before the start of the year after three largely average seasons beforehand.

Indeed, for what was supposed to be an interim season, Lewis Hamilton must be delighted with his decision to jump ship from McLaren this year, especially after the extent of his former team's troubles became clear. Nico Rosberg also gave his teammate a harder time than many had anticipated, to the extent that many are now tipping the German as next year's title favourite ahead of Hamilton. Whether he can live up to this new-found level of expectation remains to be seen, however.

As for McLaren, nothing could have prepared them for the catastrophe they endured in 2013, the first season during which the Woking-based team failed to secure a podium since 1980. That was the final year of the ancien regime led by Teddy Mayer at McLaren before Ron Dennis took over at the behest of sponsors Marlboro, and there have been reports lately that Dennis could be looking to make a comeback as team principal in the wake of their dreadful performances this year.

Martin Whitmarsh meanwhile has made a bold decision indeed by signing young Danish talent Kevin Magnussen, who will be making his F1 bow next year alongside Jenson Button. The decision to drop Sergio Perez after a single, solid - if not spectacular - season was undeniably harsh, but it indicates no shortage of faith in Magnussen's talent, McLaren being unable to find the young Dane a suitable apprenticeship further down the grid. Perhaps, though, it was Button who should have made way.

This may seem an odd contention, but bear with me. 2014 will be an interim season for McLaren before they join forces once more with Honda the following year, and Whitmarsh has made little secret of his desire to lure Alonso into the fold in 2015 - even going so far as to travelling to the opening of the Spaniard's personal museum in Madrid a few weeks ago. Assuming such a move comes off, next year could have acted as a shootout between two, hungry young guns to partner Alonso at the dawn of McLaren's new era.

Instead, Button doesn't just have to prove himself against Magnussen, he has to prove to McLaren that he can still spearhead future title assaults - but the fact that Whitmarsh is so hungry to have Alonso on board suggests that the 33-year-old has a lot of work ahead to prove that is the case. What's more, if Magnussen comes out of the blocks and beats his teammate in year one, it would be fair to assume that would bring down the curtain on the Brit's long and distinguished F1 career.

Whilst things look as if they can only get better for McLaren, Lotus is one team who could be set for something of a slump when you consider their precarious financial situation. The long-running saga of the elusive investment deal from Quantum Motorsports ultimately failed to come to fruition, leaving the team little choice other than to accept the millions on offer from Pastor Maldonado and his native Venezuela's state oil concern PDVSA to fill the cockpit vacated by the Ferrari-bound Kimi Raikkonen.

2013 proved the "Iceman" can still compete with the best of them when the car beneath him is working well and he is fully committed to the cause, but, as was the case during his Ferrari days, his performances wane at an alarming rate if the above criteria are not satisfied. This was the case after the summer break, as the Lotus dropped further behind the Red Bull and speculation over Raikkonen's future intensified. Missing the final two races was arguably nothing short of expected given the circumstances.

Raikkonen's tendency to go off the boil was what allowed Romain Grosjean to build his confidence and assert himself as Vettel's most consistent rival in the latter half of the year. The Frenchman was unlucky to miss out on a maiden win at Germany, but that first trip to the top step of the podium will come in due course. Whether it's with Lotus is another matter; perhaps Grosjean will need to one day leave the comfortable surroundings of Enstone in order to fully thrive as a Grand Prix driver.

The question is now whether Lotus can do to Maldonado what they did with Grosjean - turn a fast driver with a propensity to make frequent errors into a consistently convincing performer. That win at Catalunya last year offered a glimpse into what the erratic Venezuelan can do when everything's going his way, but a final season with Williams marked by over-driving and petulance suggests Maldonado may struggle if Lotus do indeed take a backwards step.

Considering the two teams behind them in this year's constructors' battle, McLaren and Force India, will be using the seemingly favoured Mercedes engine next year, as well as the fact that Lotus have effectively had to almost bankrupt themselves in order to be a front-running outfit for the past two seasons, it's more than possible that the black-and-gold cars could frequently be mired in the midfield ruck next season - hardly conditions in which Maldonado is likely to thrive.

While the consensus in the paddock was that Nico Hulkenberg deserved the vacant seat at Lotus, it could be that Force India transpires to be the better bet in 2014 thanks to its Mercedes powerplant; based on his sparkling form in the Sauber this season, early season podiums for the lanky German next year are a distinct possibility. Having been turned down by Ferrari this year, one would expect Hulkenberg to be in pole position to slot into any vacancy that may have arisen at Maranello this time next year.

Similarly, landing a Force India seat is about the best outcome Perez may have hoped for once it became clear that McLaren would be dispensing of his services, but beating Hulkenberg over the course of a season will be extremely tough. That is precisely what the Mexican will have to do if he harbours ambitions of returning to a top-line drive, however, whilst competition from the likes of Valtteri Bottas and Jules Bianchi for such seats in the coming seasons will be stern.

At the end of 1997, predictions that McLaren would start the following year, which saw a whole raft of technical rule changes, as the pace-setters proved bang on the money, whilst the dominant force of the past few seasons, Williams, suffered a nose-dive in form. It doesn't require too much imagination to foresee a similar scenario unfolding next year, with Mercedes coming out of the traps fastest and Red Bull being demoted a couple of positions in the competitive pecking order.

In fact, the first half of next year could well see the performances of the teams fluctuating wildly as they learn how to get the best from their all-new packages at differing rates, whilst unreliability is likely to prove a decisive factor early in the season. This unpredictability is precisely what F1 needs after an exceptionally dull second half of last year, when viewers knew well in advance that, barring catastrophe, they would be hearing the Deutschlandlied and seeing that famous index finger at the end of each race.

This will be my last blog post until my 2014 season preview in March, so all that remains for me to do is to extend my gratitude to everyone who has read my scribblings this year. I will of course be back to cover all of next year's on-track and off-track action next year, but in the meantime, you can keep up to date with all the F1 news that matters by following @KleinonF1 on Twitter and by reading my ramblings on the soon-to-launch sports website sportontap.com. Until then, have a great Christmas and see you in the new year!

2 December 2013

The Top 10 Drivers of 2013

Now the 2013 season has come to a close, it's time to cast our eyes back over the events of the past eight months and pick out the ten most outstanding Formula One drivers of the year.

The 2013 season may have been dominated by a certain German driver behind the wheel of a blue and purple car, but many other drivers have caught the eye at various stages throughout the year. It was extremely difficult to pick an order, especially for the lower half, but after much careful consideration, this is the list I have come up with:

10. Jenson Button 
Vodafone McLaren Mercedes, 9th in Championship (0 wins, 0 poles, 73pts) - Down 5

With Hamilton moving on from what was a highly competitive McLaren at the back end of 2012 to Mercedes for the 2013 season, Button would have had every reason to be feeling confident back in March. But, it didn't take long before it became obvious that the Woking outfit's design gamble was not going to pay dividends, Button becoming increasingly resigned to scrapping for the minor positions. A solid drive to fifth place in China stood as the Briton's best result until the end of the season at Brazil, where Button stormed his way from 14th on the grid to take fourth, making amends for a string of poor results in the preceding three races.

Whilst Button is hardly renowned for being a one-lap specialist, he will have been disappointed at losing out to teammate Perez in the qualifying stakes, and perhaps, considering his world champion status, that there wasn't more daylight between he and the Mexican in terms of race pace. That said, Button was the more consistent across the course of the year of the two McLaren drivers; the fact he failed to score only five times all year in a car often flirting with the fringes of the top 10 is certainly no mean feat. If the team are able to bounce back in 2014, there's still time for Button to add to his tally of 15 race victories yet.

9. Daniel Ricciardo
Scuderia Toro Rosso, 14th in Championship (0 wins, 0 poles, 20pts) - New Entry

Webber's advancing years meant that there was an awful lot at stake in 2013 for Ricciardo and his teammate Jean-Eric Vergne, both of whom stood a strong chance of promotion to Red Bull if they managed establish superiority over the other at Toro Rosso. Though there was one stage at which it appeared the latter may have been starting to get the better of Ricciardo, the gregarious Aussie upped the ante at precisely the right time, booking his seat at Red Bull with a series of convincing qualifying and race performances as Vergne faded into anonymity in the latter half of the year.

Indeed, Ricciardo was out-qualified by Vergne only four times all year, and made seven appearances in the points versus just three for the Frenchman - including a pair of superb seventh place finishes at China and Italy. However, street circuits proved something of an Achilles' heel for the 24-year-old, retiring from both Monaco (where he was thoroughly eclipsed by Vergne before being rear-ended by Grosjean) and Singapore, whilst poor starts, like his fellow countryman Webber, also occasionally served to undo his hard work during qualifying. These are weaknesses he'll have to eradicate to have any hope of matching up to Vettel at Red Bull next season.

8. Mark Webber
Infiniti Red Bull Racing, 3rd in Championship (0 wins, 2 poles, 199pts) - Down 2

Regrettably for Webber, his final season in F1 has inevitably been defined by events at Malaysia, where Vettel ignored the instruction issued by Red Bull to remain behind his teammate, instead snatching away what most perceived to be Webber's rightful victory. Even more disappointing was the fact that the Australian thereafter failed to register a win all year, whilst his German teammate proceeded to sweep all before him. Two late pole positions demonstrated the one-lap pace was still there, but Webber's apparent inability to adapt his driving style to the demands of the modern breed of Coanda effect-assisted cars proved his undoing.

Nevertheless, there were some fine drivers by Webber over the course of the year, such as at Silverstone, where he lost out on what would have been a fitting retribution for "Multi 21" by the narrowest of a margins to Rosberg. The Red Bull driver was also plagued by bad luck throughout the year, most notably at India, where an alternator problem denied him what would have been a straightforward second place; without such misfortune, he would probably have clinched the runner-up spot in the championship his machinery warranted. Webber's final year in F1 hasn't been his best by a long shot, but nonetheless marks a solid end to a distinguished career at the highest level.

7. Nico Hulkenberg
Sauber F1 Team, 10th in Championship (0 wins, 0 poles, 51pts) - Up 1

During the first half of the season, prior to Pirelli's decision to make its tyres more durable after the fiasco that was the British Grand Prix, it looked as if Hulkenberg had made the wrong decision to jump ship from Force India to Sauber, having racked up only half a dozen points by that stage versus 36 for his former teammate Paul Di Resta. But, as the Force India suffered a competitive nosedive in the advent of the revised tyres, Sauber's improving fortunes allowed Hulkenberg to really begin to shine and cement his reputation as a star of the future.

Monza, where Hulkenberg made full use of the Sauber's strong straight-line speed to qualify a superb third, was the start of this late season flourish, more than doubling his points tally for the year at a stroke by finishing in fifth. After that, the mild-mannered German was never out of the points, save for two occasions when he was not at fault; his drive to fourth at Korea, where he held off the advances of Hamilton for a significant chunk of the race, stood out in particular. Hulkenberg may have been unfortunate to lose out on a seat at the cash-strapped Lotus team for next season, but, with Mercedes engines, it could be that Force India, where he is set to return in 2014, could turn out to be a better bet regardless.

6. Nico Rosberg
Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team, 6th in Championship (2 wins, 3 poles, 171pts) - Re-Entry

It may have been the first time that Rosberg has been out-scored by a teammate in F1 since his maiden season in 2006, but it's also been the first time the German has been partnered with a teammate as well regarded as Hamilton. And, few would have anticipated back in March that Rosberg would end the season quite so close to the former champion in the drivers' standings, with just 18 points separating the pair when the dust settled on the season. Out-qualifying Hamilton, regarded by some as the best qualifier in the business, eight times over the course of the year, including taking a hat-trick of pole positions, is another achievement by Rosberg that few would have foreseen.

Whilst Rosberg was able to rack up two race victories at Monaco and Silverstone this year to Hamilton's sole triumph at Hungary, it's worth remembering that the second of those wins was somewhat fortuitous, the 28-year-old benefiting from a puncture for Hamilton and a gearbox failure for Vettel. And, whilst Rosberg's only non-appearances in the points can be pinned on mechanical maladies of one sort or another, there were perhaps a couple too many occasions where he was simply out-raced by Hamilton - a man he will have to overcome more regularly to put himself in genuine contention for the title next year, as some have tipped him to.

5. Kimi Raikkonen
Lotus F1 Team, 5th in Championship (1 win, 0 poles, 183pts) - Down 1

It's fair to say that Raikkonen's second season of his comeback for Lotus peaked rather too soon - at the very first race, where he took a convincing victory at Melbourne, in fact. The car was undoubtedly capable of more, remaining competitive even after the mid-season revision of the Pirelli tyres, and there were quite a few subsequent near misses for "The Iceman" in his quest to add to his Australian win. Indeed, Raikkonen featured on the second step of the podium more often than anyone else all year, with Bahrain and Hungary standing out as occasions where a lacklustre qualifying performances held the Finn back.

As the second half of the year progressed, and the severity of Lotus's financial woes became clear, Raikkonen's performances appeared to decline accordingly as teammate Grosjean increasingly took over from Kimi as the team's "go-to guy". From Spa onwards, he was out-done by the Franco-Swiss at every race (the Safety Car played an instrumental role in allowing Raikkonen to beat Grosjean at Korea), but perhaps his motivation to perform was flagging once his move to Ferrari for next season was sealed. If this was the case, he'll need to show a far sterner resolve if he's going to get on terms with Alonso at the political hot-house that is the Scuderia.

4. Lewis Hamilton
Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team, 4th in Championship (1 win, 5 poles, 189pts) - Down 2

Considering McLaren's woes this season, it didn't take long for Hamilton to convince the doubters that his move to Mercedes was the right one. Up to the summer break, with the sole exception of an inexplicably poor showing in Spain, the Brit was a constant presence in the top five, and was unfortunate to lose a potential victory at Silverstone to tyre failure. A first win with his new employers finally came with an imperious drive in the sweltering heat of Hungary, after which many observers believed Hamilton may have been on the cusp of launching some kind of title challenge.

This was not to be however, and Hamilton losing out to Vettel along the Kemmel Straight at Spa on the first lap perfectly symbolised the point at which the hopes of everyone else were dashed. Hamilton was not quite as convincing from the next race at Monza onwards - though how much of this was down to cracks in the former champion's chassis, which weren't spotted until after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, isn't clear. But, five pole positions and as many trips to the podium certainly constitutes a record Hamilton can look back upon with satisfaction as he readies himself for what ought to be his best shot at the title since he made history back in 2008.

3. Romain Grosjean
Lotus F1 Team, 7th in Championship (0 wins, 0 poles, 132pts) - New Entry

From "first-lap nutcase" to one of the undoubted class acts of the season,  the last 12 months have seen quite a turnaround for Grosjean. Warned that his drive may be at risk following a dismal weekend at Monaco, where he briefly reverted to type after taking out Ricciardo mid-race, you can't give the Frenchman enough credit for the way he knuckled down and found a way to cut out the errors that had so far held back his career. Whether it was down to the change in mentality that comes with being a father, or simply overcoming a set-up hurdle in optimising his brake balance, something undoubtedly clicked for Grosjean in the summer.

Germany, where a Safety Car cost him a very realistic shot at a maiden victory, proved the springboard to a phenomenal second half of the year during which Grosjean was often Vettel's strongest adversary, and as Raikkonen progressively went off the boil as speculation over his future intensified, the man from Geneva was always in the podium mix once the second flyaway leg of the calendar got underway. Leading the first stint at Suzuka and his defence of second from a hard-charging Webber at Austin were both feats worthy of the champion-in-waiting status that some pundits have now begun to attribute to Grosjean; only time will tell if he can live up to this new tag.

2. Fernando Alonso
Scuderia Ferrari, 2nd in Championship (2 wins, 0 poles, 242pts) - Down 1

If there was a nagging feeling that, perhaps, the wrong person came out on top of last year's championship battle, Alonso's heroics behind the wheel of a largely recalcitrant Ferrari have done nothing to alter a perception which exists among many F1 fans that the two-time champion remains the cream of the crop. Five podiums, including two convincing victories in the first eight races before Pirelli revamped their tyres, laid what appeared to be a solid foundation for another title tilt, even if numerous points went begging for reasons both within and outside of Alonso's control. In the second half of the year however, with Ferrari one of the worst affected teams by the tyre changes, Alonso's performances became all the more impressive.

In particular, three successive second place finishes at Spa, Monza and Singapore kept the title fight alive longer than otherwise would have been the case, and, though the Spaniard was out-qualified by Massa eight times, there was only one occasion all year, India, where Alonso failed to finish ahead of his team-mate, excluding his retirement at Malaysia. In fact, the Brazilian was the only driver among the top five teams to score less than half of his teammate's points, reflecting the overwhelming degree to which Alonso was able to out-perform his car once again. Ferrari owe their star driver nothing less than the near-perfection he has delivered for the past four seasons in 2014.

1. Sebastian Vettel
Infiniti Red Bull Racing, World Champion (13 wins, 9 poles, 397pts) - Up 2

Even if Vettel's record-matching achievements this year have failed to convince you that he is the best driver in the field, this year proved beyond doubt that he is head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to getting the most out of the modern breed of Formula One car. Save for when he didn't run in Q3 at China, the German was never out of the top three in qualifying, and was rarely off the podium in races - only missing out after a gearbox failure robbed him of victory at Silverstone and during two of the early season tyre wear bonanzas at China and Spain (incidentally, both races Alonso won). And, unlike the case for all of his rivals, there wasn't a single event all year you could describe as an "off-race" for the irrepressible Vettel.

His actions at Malaysia, whilst perhaps questionable from a standpoint of sporting ethics, unveiled the same ruthless streak and sheer determination to win that have elevated Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher to such legendary status, and now that Vettel has sealed a fourth title on the trot, it seems hard to believe that he won't be held in similar esteem by the time he decides to hang up his helmet in eight or 10 years' time. The only solace for the 26-year-old's competitors is the promise of a major shuffle in the competitive order that's likely to come with next year's regulation changes - but if Vettel remains on top, then expect the few remaining records he is yet to clinch to tumble sooner or later.

Honourable Mentions

Sergio Perez's season may look fairly lacklustre on paper, but the decision on the part of McLaren to drop him after a single season is extremely harsh. Though errors were certainly more common for the Mexican than for his vastly more experienced teammate Button, Perez was a broad match for the Brit's pace during the races - his drive to fifth place at India and to sixth at Brazil standing out as particular highlights - and out-qualified Button more often than not. Kevin Magnussen has a tough job on his hands if he is to avoid the same fate as Perez, particularly as McLaren continue to court Alonso for 2015.

Valtteri Bottas did a fine job carving out a reputation for himself in his debut season at the wheel of a dreadful Williams car, often shading teammate Pastor Maldonado, whose frustration with the team at failing to build on the progress of 2012 led to far too many cases of over-driving by the fiery Venezuelan. Meanwhile, Bottas kept his head, and when the opportunities to impress came along, namely at Canada in qualifying and at Austin in the race, he seized them perfectly. Ironically, it will be his new teammate Felipe Massa who will have to prove himself against Bottas next year, not vice versa.

Jules Bianchi was the other outstanding rookie of the year, his 13th place at the Malaysian Grand Prix proving sufficient for Marussia to overhaul arch-rivals Caterham in the constructors' standings in the final reckoning. Despite having far less time to acclimatise himself to the car during pre-season testing, Bianchi was rarely troubled by fellow debutant and teammate Max Chilton in both qualifying and the races, and, despite the limitations of the Marussia, successfully translated the potential he has shown in the junior formulae into some solid promise for a bright future in F1. It's just a shame that he won't be able to ply his trade with a more competitive car next year.

To see my list from last season, click here.

26 November 2013

Brazilian Grand Prix 2013 - Report

If Sunday's Brazilian Grand Prix can be summarised in one word, it would be 'anti-climax'. The combination of an 'old-school' venue and the threat of rain seemed to offer the greatest prospect of a winner other than the all-conquering Sebastian Vettel for quite some time, but, in the event, nobody else was strong enough to deny the quadruple world champion an incredible 13th race victory of the season and a ninth in succession.

It's been the story of the entire year. As late as July's Hungarian Grand Prix, the last time somebody other than Vettel won a race, the majority of pundits (including myself) were still predicting a close title battle. But, just as the rain failed to fall on Sunday, at the right time at least, Red Bull's rivals have failed to make a contest of the latter half of the year and thus have left the way clear for Vettel to equal the historic achievements of Michael Schumacher and Alberto Ascari.

At least the first few laps of the grand finale were entertaining as Nico Rosberg, who shared the front row with pole-sitter Vettel, managed to vault into the lead at the first corner. Meanwhile, the second Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton managed to move up into third place ahead of a fast-starting Fernando Alonso, who found his path blocked by an uncharacteristically tardy Vettel.

Rosberg's reign at the front of the field was to be short-lived, however, as Vettel managed to get a far better exit from the final corner on the first lap and had already edged ahead of his compatriot by the time the pair had crossed the start/finish line. Rosberg was forced to concede the position as they headed into the Senna 'S', and, by the time Vettel completed the second lap, he was already 1.4 seconds clear.

After another lap, Rosberg had dropped a further 1.2 seconds to Vettel and now had Alonso, who dispatched Hamilton at the same point at which Vettel grabbed the lead, looming large in his mirrors. By this stage, Mark Webber had already relieved Hamilton of fourth place with a bold manoeuvre around the outside of the Ferradura corner.

Rosberg, whose car was ostensibly set up for the wet of qualifying rather than the dry conditions prevailing on Sunday, then began to quickly fall backwards - Alonso charged past the ailing Mercedes driver into second place at the Descida do Lago corner on lap four, followed by Webber at the start of lap seven, Hamilton on lap 11 and Felipe Massa on lap 15.

Once clear of Rosberg, Webber wasted no time whatsoever cruising towards Alonso, who had no answer to the pace of the Australian and found himself demoted to third place at the start of lap 13. At the first round of pit-stops, however, Alonso managed to get second place back, forcing the Red Bull driver to repeat his earlier pass on lap 26 before pulling away and securing another Red Bull one-two.

By this stage, Vettel had already made his first stop and was a little over 10 seconds clear of his teammate. With no rain forthcoming, that was essentially it as far as the battle for the lead was concerned, although a slow second stop for Vettel, caused by the Red Bull mechanics not having his tyres ready when he arrived at his pit box, did erode his advantage to a degree.

Team principal Christian Horner later explained that the mix-up was due to Vettel stopping earlier than planned to cover himself in the event of an appearance by the Safety Car. This was a genuine concern after a rather strange collision between Lewis Hamilton and a lapped Valtteri Bottas on lap 47 at the Descida do Lago corner, the pair clashing under braking as the latter tried to un-lap himself.

The net result was instant retirement for Bottas and a puncture for Hamilton, who had been running comfortably in fourth place. The Briton managed to return to the pits with relatively little damage, but was later handed a drive-through penalty for being deemed to have caused the incident, costing him even more time and dropping him outside of the points.

Another man to experience the wrath of the stewards was Felipe Massa, who had been battling Hamilton hard for fourth during the second stint prior to serving a drive-through penalty on lap 34. The Brazilian had repeatedly crossed a white line at the final, flat-out corner marking the pit-lane entry, something which the drivers had reportedly been warned against doing prior to the race. 

Without the penalty, Massa would have stood on the podium at his home Grand Prix as Alonso admitted after the race that he would have pulled over to let his teammate taste the champagne for the final time as a Ferrari driver had he been in a position to do so. What's more, Ferrari would have snatched the runner-up spot in the constructors' standings, but in the event Mercedes hung on by six points.

These mishaps allowed Jenson Button to come through and take an unlikely fourth place, a superb effort from an unpromising grid slot of 14th. The McLaren driver had already climbed up to seventh by the time of his first pit-stop, at which stage he was able to leapfrog a struggling Rosberg before capitalising on the misfortunes of Hamilton and Massa to secure McLaren's best finishing position of what has proven to be an embarrassingly poor season for the Woking-based team.

Rosberg wasn't far behind the Brit at the finish in fifth place, ahead of Sergio Perez, who came home an excellent sixth place in his last outing for McLaren. The Mexican had started all the way down in 19th after a shunt in qualifying, but made up no fewer than 13 positions during the race in another drive that leads one to question whether McLaren were right to drop him for next year.

An irate Massa was next up in seventh place after his penalty, ahead of Sauber's Nico Hulkenberg, who had a fairly uneventful run to eighth place, and a recovering Hamilton. Daniel Ricciardo took the final point of the season in his final race with Toro Rosso before stepping up to join Vettel at Red Bull, staving off a marauding pack consisting of Paul Di Resta, in what may be his last F1 race, Esteban Gutierrez and Adrian Sutil.

In a decidedly sub-par showing, Heikki Kovalainen finished only 14th in his second appearance for Lotus as a stand-in for the absent Kimi Raikkonen. The fact Kovalainen failed to make any contribution whatsoever to the Enstone-based team's points tally must be a bitter pill to swallow for Lotus reserve Davide Valsecchi, who was spurned precisely because the team wanted an experienced hand to help them in the crucial battle for constructors' points.

Ultimately, any hopes of Lotus overhauling Ferrari or even Mercedes in the constructors' standings went up in smoke along with Romain Grosjean's engine at the end of the third lap, a disappointing end to what has been an extraordinary season for the Frenchman.

Further back, Pastor Maldonado spun after making contact with Jean-Eric Vergne in the closing stages, the Frenchman taking 15th place ahead of the Venezuelan in his final outing for Williams before a widely anticipated move to Lotus. Rounding off the finishers were Jules Bianchi, Giedo van der Garde and Max Chilton, who holds the distinction of being the only driver to finish every single race this year, whilst Charles Pic, who suffered a late suspension failure, was the only other retirement of the race.

Without the assistance of the weather, neither Pic nor van der Garde had any realistic hope of taking the pivotal 13th place that would have seen Caterham surpass rivals Marussia, who are set to receive a welcome cash bonus for finishing in the top 10 constructors' standings for the first time in their history thanks to Bianchi's 13th place finish all the way back in Malaysia.

Sunday's race was undoubtedly a race of 'lasts': it was the last race for Webber as an F1 driver before he moves on to Porsche's endurance racing programme; for Massa as a Ferrari driver before he joins Williams; for Vodafone as a major sponsor, for Cosworth as an engine supplier (again), and, of course, for the current breed of 2.4 litre normally aspirated V8 engines.

The end of the V8 era that commenced back in 2006 also marks the close of an era where aerodynamic efficiency has been the main determinant of a team's competitiveness. Next year, engine performance, much as it was during the V10 era, will be a far more significant differentiating factor - not even Adrian Newey's design genius will rescue Red Bull if Renault's power-train isn't up to scratch.

Unreliability, which has played very little part in F1 in recent years, could influence proceedings far more often next year, too, whilst the fact next year's cars are said to be tougher to drive could also help to shake things up. In short, 2014 is very much a step into the unknown, and a shuffling of the competitive order would come as a huge breath of fresh air to the many fans who have grown weary of Vettel re-writing the record books this year.