Alonso and the Silly Season That Keeps On Giving

In all the 15 years I've been following Formula One, I cannot remember the driver market being as unsettled as it is currently at such a late stage of the season.

By this time last year, we knew that Kimi Raikkonen was on his way to Ferrari; the previous year, the world was aware by late September of the news that Lewis Hamilton had turned his back on McLaren in favour of Mercedes.

There seems to be a growing feeling in the paddock that there may yet be a silly season bombshell of comparable magnitude this year too, despite noises being made by the 'big four' teams to the contrary in recent weeks.

The key man is Fernando Alonso, whose future has been subject to all kinds of speculation for quite some time now despite the Spaniard having a contract to remain at Ferrari until the end of 2016.

Such lengthy deals always tend to have get-out clauses, and it appears that the Scuderia's lacklustre showing this year has triggered a performance clause that has led Alonso to start playing hardball with the newly-installed Ferrari management.

It has been said that Alonso wants a bonus payment for every point earned, not dissimilar to the ertswhile arrangement between Raikkonen and Lotus that almost bankrupted the Enstone outfit.

While Ferrari could undoubtedly afford such a deal, the Italian team is renowned for its dislike of drivers who see themselves as bigger than the collective - and the scent given by Alonso's negotiating tactics is hardly one of being a team player dedicated to the Maranello cause.

Still considered the sport's finest operator by many, Alonso has other options should Ferrari refuse to bow to their star driver's demands. McLaren have been making behind-the-scenes moves to try and lure the 33-year-old for getting on for a year now - so if Alonso's brinksmanship fails, he can be safe in the knowledge that Woking would welcome him back with open arms.

But, moving to McLaren in the first year of its new partnership with Honda - whose engines, it is easily forgotten, were far from the class of the field during the Japanese marque's most recent foray into F1 - would be a big risk, especially when 2015 will be the first full season for Ferrari's promising new regime headed by Sergio Marchionne, Marco Mattiacci and James Allison.

A switch to McLaren may not be Alonso's only option however. The big rumour doing the rounds in Singapore was that Alonso could be on the cusp of switching seats with Red Bull's Sebastian Vettel, an accusation denied by both.

But, that was before the full story of Alonso's negotiations with his team had come to light, and Vettel has long been believed to be at the top of Ferrari's shopping list in the event of Maranello needing a new lead driver.

The way he's been outperformed by new team-mate Daniel Ricciardo must have made the thought of dissolving what is currently the longest-standing team/driver partnership on the grid cross Vettel's mind, especially since his favoured race engineer Guillaume Rocquelin, who has steered the German to four world titles, will no longer be by his side next year. And that's before you consider Adrian Newey taking more of a hands-off role once he's laid the foundations for next year's Red Bull.

But, the prospect of joining a McLaren team seemingly incapable of manufacturing a winning chassis will have hardly tempted Vettel to fly the Red Bull nest. A seat at Ferrari may be a different matter, though - if nothing else, the German would conclude he would easily have the measure of Kimi Raikkonen as a team-mate, whereas being beaten by Danny Ric two years on the trot simply isn't an option.

Even if Vettel were to conclude that his interests are best served by staying put, there's always a chance that Ferrari could orchestrate a swap between Alonso and Ricciardo.

Deserting the team that gave him his big break might seem inadvisable for the Australian, but you can hardly underestimate the potential lure of being drafted in by Ferrari to lead a new era in the team's history. Such a move didn't work out too badly for a certain M. Schumacher, after all.

Then there's Mercedes, which would probably be the team Alonso (along with just about every other driver on the grid) would opt to join if he had free choice.

But, with Nico Rosberg having signed a two-year extension to his contract earlier this year, the only route to Brackley for Alonso would be, as has been suggested in some quarters, if the Spaniard were to exchange seats with Lewis Hamilton, who still has a year to run on his contract.

Such a scenario taking place means Hamilton would have to lose the title to Rosberg in particularly acrimonious style - far from impossible to imagine, but an unlikely prospect now that the Brit has taken the lead of the championship following a seventh victory of the season at Singapore last weekend.

An unlikelier prospect still, however, is the latest story to emerge from the rumour mill turning into reality - that Alonso is bound for the cash-strapped Lotus team.

The disgraced former boss of the Enstone outfit, Flavio Briatore, is said to be trying to broker a deal for Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll (who has also been linked to purchasing Sauber and Marussia in recent weeks) to buy the team and pay for the services of Alonso, as well as the Mercedes engines that the team are ostensibly unable to afford under the current ownership.

Of all the options Alonso may or may not have, surely this one can be written off immediately. Finding a buyer would not miraculously transform Lotus's fortunes overnight; it would be a long-term project nurturing the team back to full competitiveness, probably at least three years - by which point, Alonso would be 36 years old and perhaps a little beyond his prime.

If joining McLaren would be a gamble, plumping for Lotus would be tantamount to re-mortgaging your house, flying out to Vegas and sticking the entire sum on zero at the roulette table.

So, where does all of that leave Alonso? Much depends on the outcome of the negotiations with Ferrari. A move to Mercedes (at least in 2015) looks to be a non-starter; perhaps it's not a surprise that those particular rumblings emerged from the Spanish press, who would no doubt love to see their darling cruise to a long overdue third world championship with a dominant car beneath him.

Of the remaining three options, Red Bull would be the only one worth deserting Ferrari in favour of at this stage. That would require one of the two incumbents at Milton Keynes to move in the opposite direction - a possibility, but only if a swap was arranged by the Scuderia.

Mattiacci's slightly cryptic response to the latest questions about Alonso's future at Singapore is telling. What it indicates is that Ferrari are no longer willing to bend over backwards to accommodate Alonso's every whim - after all, for a team that so famously values loyalty, what is a contract that allows the Spaniard to leave at the first sign of a vacancy emerging at a rival team really worth?

Of course, it's quite possible that Alonso and Ferrari will settle their differences and agree to continue for at least one more year, giving Maranello one final chance to finally rise to the challenge of producing the world-beating car its resources are capable of delivering after five seasons of falling short.

But, such a deal would almost certainly have to be written to allow Alonso to jump ship for 2016 if certain performance-related conditions are not met.

And, if Ferrari fails to come up with the goods again next year, we'll be left with more or less exactly the same scenario - except that Alonso will be one year closer to retirement, perhaps a little more desperate to find a way out of his long-term deal, and that a move to Mercedes or Red Bull may be a more viable prospect than it is currently.

Wherever Alonso moves next - if he does choose to depart Ferrari - is likely to be the place he sees out his F1 career; his decision consequently could well come to define his legacy.

Three titles have already slipped through his fingers, and no doubt several more will too if his choice, whatever it may be, turns out to be the wrong one.

The 2014 Silly Season Gets Underway

Speculation over which drivers are heading where for the following season seems to begin earlier and earlier each year in Formula One, and this year's silly season now appears to have kicked off in earnest following comments from McLaren boss Ron Dennis in the run-up to last weekend's British Grand Prix that Jenson Button needs to "try harder".

The Briton responded to this jibe in the best possible way at Silverstone, taking his best result since the season opener at Melbourne and coming within a second of breaking his podium duck at his home circuit, but it appears to be accepted wisdom that McLaren have been knocking on the door of potential replacements for Button in the form of both Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton.

While it would take a peculiar set of circumstances indeed to compel the latter to re-join the very team he spurned at the end of 2014 to join the now-dominant Mercedes outfit, a return to McLaren for Alonso is a somewhat more viable prospect, albeit not the near-certainty it seemed six months ago prior to Dennis' return to prominence at Woking.

Prior to his dismissal as McLaren team principal, Martin Whitmarsh is understood to have been angling for Alonso to return, travelling to Madrid late last year in a bid to arrange a pre-agreement of sorts with the Spaniard - who himself told the media last year that any lingering resentments towards the team over his tempestuous 2007 season were because of "one man", in whose absence he would have no problem returning.

The man to which Alonso was referring is of course Dennis, but if the two-time champion was to arrive at the conclusion that McLaren and Honda are more likely to provide him with a title-winning car than Ferrari, any personal disagreements would surely be cast aside; equally, it's difficult to see Dennis taking issue to welcoming back to his team the man that many still rate as the very best on the grid.

With Alonso staring down the barrel of his first win-free season since he joined Ferrari, the possibility of jumping ship at the end of the year must surely have crossed his mind on more than one occasion - but with Mercedes and Red Bull all but certain to retain their existing driver line-ups, returning to McLaren is the only other viable option besides staying put at the Scuderia.

But, it's a risky choice: Honda's past success is by no means a guarantee that the Japanese firm's 2015 engine will be of similar quality to their offerings of the late 1980s, while McLaren, despite the vast resources at their disposal, as of late seem to have forgotten how to produce a chassis worthy of contending for the title.

It may thus be a case of better the devil you know for Alonso, who would be well-advised to give Ferrari, now under the stewardship of Marco Mattiacci, one final chance to deliver the goods next season whilst simultaneously keeping a close eye on the progress of the renewed McLaren-Honda alliance as well investigating the possibilities of any vacancies arising at either Mercedes or Red Bull.

Such a scenario gives Button one final chance to end his career on a high note after two seasons saddled with substandard machinery. Coming into this season, it seemed conceivable that this season may have proven the last in the sport for the 34-year-old, but the way he has responded to the challenge of fending off young Kevin Magnussen in the other side of the garage has been admirable.

But, if the second most senior driver on the grid looks to have done enough to prolong his career, things look a great deal less certain for the elder statesman. Kimi Raikkonen has endured an utterly torrid season, having been out-qualified 7-2 by teammate Alonso so far this year and having finished no higher than seventh place. The Finn languishes down in 12th in the drivers' standings on 19 points, versus 87 for the Spaniard.

On only two occasions this year has Raikkonen appeared even vaguely like the driver who won Ferrari's last drivers' title back in 2007 - at Spain, where he out-qualified Alonso and kept the home favourite at bay until the dying stages of the race, and at Monaco, where a likely podium finish went begging after Max Chilton contrived to give him a puncture during a Safety Car period.

Clearly, this isn't what Ferrari had in mind when they selected Raikkonen to replace Felipe Massa, much less when they agreed to remunerate the Iceman to the tune of a reputed $14m per year. Raikkonen's return to Ferrari was supposed to serve as a reminder to Alonso that no one man is bigger than the team; if he can't regularly challenge the Spaniard, what purpose does his presence at the team serve?

Then there's the question of motivation. Only Kimi himself knows exactly how motivated he is at this late stage in his career, though the fact he has recently gone on record to say that he will probably retire from the sport at the end of his existing contract with Ferrari, which expires at the end of 2015, is hardly the sign of somebody desperate to add a second world title to his resumé.

So, is history destined to repeat itself? Will Raikkonen and Ferrari once again agree to part ways with a year still to run on their contract? The reason the Finn was forced out of the picture last time around in 2010 was because of Ferrari's eagerness to begin their partnership with Alonso, but there appears to be no equivalent on the scene this time around as long as Mercedes and Red Bull maintain their current line-ups.

#450938480 / gettyimages.com

The likes of Nico Hulkenberg and Romain Grosjean would be available; both are ready to step up to a top team and would probably push Alonso harder than an out-of-sorts Raikkonen. But the real question is whether Ferrari are sufficiently desperate to get a younger, hungrier driver in their second car to atone for the embarrassment of effectively announcing that they were wrong to re-sign Kimi in the first place.

Assuming Raikkonen wishes to continue for one more year, therefore, there is likely to be a place for him at Ferrari, all the more so because the team have a ready-made replacement in the form of Ferrari Academy member Jules Bianchi ready to fill the breach in 2016 - who could be stationed at a midfield outfit next year to serve the final year of his apprenticeship after two assured seasons at Marussia.

In the event Raikkonen does decide to hang up his helmet come November, Ferrari could decide to fast-track Bianchi to the seat alongside Alonso next year, which would have the benefit of providing continuity heading into 2016 should Fernando indeed opt to depart Maranello at that stage. Alternatively, the Scuderia could sign either Hulkenberg or Grosjean on a one-year deal before re-assessing their options for 2016.

Elsewhere, Williams and Force India are likely to retain their existing line-ups, although Bianchi, the team's third driver in 2012, would be the obvious option to fill the void at the latter team left by Hulkenberg were the German to be given the call-up by Ferrari. Bianchi could also end up at Lotus in place of compatriot Grosjean if the Franco-Swiss was selected to replace Raikkonen.

Grosjean has expressed his desire to step up to a regular race-winning outfit next year, but Ferrari isn't the only potential destination in that regard. Eric Boullier's appointment by McLaren at the start of the year sparked rumours that Grosjean could be destined for a drive at Woking in 2015, and such a move remains a possibility. But, of the team's existing drivers, it would probably be Magnussen who would have to make way.

That may seem harsh given that the young Dane has done a solid job in a less-than-competitive car this year, but having such an inexperienced driver on board has clearly hindered development of the recalcitrant MP4-29. Loaning Magnussen out to a rival outfit before bringing him back to the fold a couple of years down the line, when the team has returned to winning ways, is an option, much as Williams did with Button in spite of a strong debut season back in 2000.

Either way, it looks as if Grosjean's time at Lotus is coming to an end now that the Enstone outfit have announced a switch to Mercedes power for 2015, which is almost certain to herald the departure of fuel company Total, Grosjean's main backer. Should no vacancies emerge at either Ferrari or McLaren, Force India may be able to offer refuge to the 28-year-old.

Pastor Maldonado, meanwhile, seems certain to remain on board at Lotus as long as his PDVSA cash doesn't dry up - although the Venezuelan state oil concern, in this writer's opinion, should look carefully at the possibility of switching their backing to promising GP2 racer Johnny Cecotto Jr. in the wake of what has been an unacceptably scrappy first half of the season for Maldonado.

One driver set to make his F1 debut next season is Carlos Sainz Jr., championship leader in Formula Renault 3.5, who would replace Jean-Eric Vergne alongside Daniil Kvyat at Toro Rosso. The Russian now has to be regarded as odds-on favourite to ultimately step up to Red Bull ahead of Vergne, which leaves no place for the Frenchman at a team whose raison d'être is to prepare young talents for the senior squad; a third driver role at Red Bull for Vergne could beckon.

Things are looking more fluid over at the cash-strapped Sauber team. The Swiss outfit will be reluctant to drop Adrian Sutil after a single season, but key to the German's fate - along with the somewhat underwhelming Esteban Gutierrez - will be money. Ex-Caterham driver Giedo van der Garde, the team's third driver, could well make his race return next year at Hinwil on that basis, while Sergey Sirotkin and Simona de Silvestro are also options for the team, albeit much riskier ones.

It's a similar story at Marussia, where there is set to be at least one seat up for grabs as Bianchi moves up the pecking order. Chilton could yet remain for a third season depending on the state of his finances, with last year's GP2 champion Fabio Leimer a prime contender to join the Banbury outfit. Jolyon Palmer, who currently leads the points in the official feeder series, could also be in contention if the requisite money can be found.

It's unclear whether Caterham will be on the grid next year, let alone who will be driving for the team recently sold by a disillusioned Tony Fernandes. Colin Kolles' involvement in the beleaguered squad's sale to a group of Arab investors has also raised questions of whether the squad will be merged with the Romanian-backed Forza Rossa outfit, which has been granted an entry by the FIA for 2015.

Assuming there is an 11th team, Marcus Ericsson is likely to stick around, although he could take his cash to Marussia if the Leafield-based team don't resurface next year. On the other hand, Kamui Kobayashi surely doesn't have the money to remain on board for a second year and would probably be replaced by a well-funded GP2 racer; Julian Leal and Rio Haryanto have driven for the team in testing, while Nathanael Berthon has recently been announced as a junior driver for the squad.

Brazilian Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend's race at the legendary Interlagos circuit in the Brazilian city of Sao Paulo will bring down the curtain on what has been a memorable, if not always thrilling season of Grand Prix racing.

After a string of fairly tame races in which Sebastian Vettel has utterly crushed his adversaries, Formula One fans will be looking to Interlagos, which has a history of throwing up unpredictable results, to provide a sorely needed dramatic finale to the 2013 season.

Many a title has been decided at Interlagos - not least of all last year, when Vettel fought his way through the pack to secure the points needed for his third title crown after an early spin. Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso also know what it's like to win titles in Brazil, as does Felipe Massa - even if it was only for 30 seconds for the undoubted home crowd hero at that unforgettable finale five years ago.

The track itself is a far cry from the series of 'Tilkedromes' F1 has visited in recent months, featuring fast, flowing corners and myriad overtaking opportunities. Despite having been shortened from eight to 4.3 kilometres, Interlagos remains one of the most physically demanding circuits for the drivers; its bumpy nature and high altitude also make it one of the more testing races on the calendar for the cars.

Pirelli have opted for the same tyre allocation seen a week ago in Texas - the medium and hard compounds - as well as some experimental rubber for next year to be used in practice. However, the weather forecast firmly suggests that the intermediate and wet tyres will be getting a fair bit of mileage this weekend, and a long overdue first wet race of the year would certainly do much to spice up the action.

After all, it's probably only the weather that will be able to stand between Vettel and a ninth consecutive win that would see him match Alberto Ascari's 60-year-old record and Michael Schumacher's benchmark of 13 wins in a season, set in 2004. Vettel was just untouchable at Austin, and although the Interlagos circuit is quite a different kettle of fish, the Red Bull's degree of superiority over the rest will undoubtedly tell in dry conditions.

In the wet, however, all bets would be off - and there is no shortage of drivers who will have their eye on the top step of the podium should the heavens open on Sunday morning. Chief among them will be a certain Mark Webber, who will be participating in his 215th and final Grand Prix on Sunday.

His career started with a fairytale result at Melbourne in 2002, when he finished an improbable fifth place for Minardi in a race of extreme attrition, so why can't it end with a fairytale victory too? A 10th and final victory would be a fitting tribute to the career to perhaps the most popular man in the paddock in recent years - his honesty, dry sense of humour and integrity will be sorely missed.

Equally fitting would be for Romain Grosjean to take the first win of his career, which would be the icing on the cake of what has been a superb latter half of the season for the Frenchman. This time a year ago, Grosjean's future was looking decidedly uncertain, but after some tremendous performances, most notably his flawless run to second place a week ago, he is rightly being hailed as a likely future world champion.

Fernando Alonso won't have a prayer of winning the race without the help of the weather gods, but if the rain does indeed arrive he'll be eager to erase the memories of a fairly dismal run of form, equally laying down a marker for incoming teammate Kimi Raikkonen. Lewis Hamilton meanwhile, having won only the one race at Hungary to Nico Rosberg's two, will be determined to deploy his wet weather skills to even the score at Mercedes.

Not only that, but positions in both the drivers' and constructors' tables are still up for grabs. Just six points separate Hamilton and Webber in the battle for third place behind Vettel and Alonso, who is now safe in second, whilst the runner-up spot in the constructors' - and all the cash that comes with it - is still just about within reach for Ferrari, who lie 15 points adrift of Mercedes, as well as Lotus, who are a further 18 points down.

Looking further down the order, there are several men in the midfield fighting for their careers as the driver market continues to take shape. With the Quantum money still not forthcoming at Lotus, it appears the well-heeled Pastor Maldonado is destined for the vacant seat alongside Grosjean at Enstone next season instead of Nico Hulkenberg, who is now believed to be closing on a deal to return to Force India.

With Adrian Sutil dropping a particularly unsubtle hint that he has already signed a fresh deal to remain at Force India next season, that could leave Paul Di Resta in the cold. The Scot has been linked with an IndyCar drive, particularly as cousin and four-time series champion Dario Franchitti has recently been forced to retire from injury, but nonetheless insists his main focus is on remaining in F1.

If Force India do indeed plump for an all-German line up of Hulkenberg and Sutil, that will leave little option for Sergio Perez, who was recently dumped by McLaren in favour of newcomer Kevin Magnussen, but to return to Sauber. His team-mate, depending on all sorts of financial complexities, would either be fellow Mexican Esteban Gutierrez, who looks to have done enough to warrant a second year subject to funding, or Russian novice Sergey Sirotkin - though paddock gossip suggests this deal may have now fallen through.

Brazil is also the last chance for Caterham to wrest back 10th place in the constructors' from arch-rivals Marussia, just as they did this time last year in a drama-filled wet finale at Interlagos. To do so, either Charles Pic or Giedo van der Garde must finish in 13th place, which would be virtually impossible without some major assistance from the weather.

Were either to manage the feat, however, it would do their chances of staying with the team next year no end of good, particularly as Heikki Kovalainen continues to advertise his services at the wheel of the second Lotus this weekend. Over at Marussia, the signs are pointing to an unchanged line-up now that, Magnussen, who had been thought of as a potential replacement for Max Chilton, has been given the nod at McLaren.

Qualifying Predictions
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Grosjean, 4. Hamilton, 5. Rosberg, 6. Hulkenberg, 7. Massa, 8. Alonso, 9. Kovalainen, 10. Bottas

Race Predictions
1. Grosjean, 2. Alonso, 3. Hamilton, 4. Hulkenberg, 5. Massa, 6. Kovalainen, 7. Button, 8. Sutil, 9. Bottas, 10. Vergne

After weeks of boring predictions, I've decided that, this weekend, rain is going to wreak carnage, hence my rather left-field prediction. After both Red Bulls collide with each other whilst dicing for the lead, Grosjean will come through to take a popular first win, with Alonso and Hamilton joining the Frenchman on the podium. Hulkenberg will star once again, just missing out on his first podium finish, with Massa coming home fifth in his final outing for Ferrari.

Kovalainen will bank a very handy 8 points for Lotus to go with Grosjean's bumper haul of 25, with Jenson Button rounding off a miserable season with an steady run to seventh. The remaining points finishers will be made up of Sutil, Bottas and Vergne, with numerous other casualties during the race including Rosberg, Perez, Maldonado, Di Resta and Gutierrez. Well, I can hope, can't I?

United States Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend’s United States Grand Prix, Formula One’s second visit to the state-of-the-art Circuit of the Americas facility, marks the penultimate round of this year’s championship.

Though the widespread consensus is that the inaugural trip to the Texan city of Austin last year was a success, the F1 fraternity is under no illusions that cracking the US market is anything other than a long-term project. The commercial benefits of doing so are obvious, but the acid test will be whether the same enthusiasm for the sport we saw in 2012 exists five or 10 years down the line.

The circuit itself was also given rave reviews by drivers and fans alike. The flowing first sector, ultra-long back straight and technical final sector make it one of the most varied circuits on the calendar, as well as one of the most demanding on the cars, while the steep approach to the first corner makes the venue immediately recognisable, unlike some of the other ‘Tilkedromes’ on the F1 calendar.

Tyre wear is unlikely to be too great a concern as Pirelli have chosen to bring their two hardest tyre compounds, the medium and hard, whilst the presence of two DRS zones – one along the back straight and the other along the start/finish straight – should ensure overtaking doesn’t prove too difficult either.

This week has been a roller-coaster ride of driver market speculation and announcements for both this year and next. The most shocking news, revealed on Monday evening and confirmed by the team on Thursday, was that Kevin Magnussen will be making his F1 debut next season alongside Jenson Button at McLaren, with Sergio Perez being ditched after just a single season at Woking.

It’s been a difficult year for Perez, but I can’t help feel dispensing of his services after such little opportunity to show what he’s made of is a tad unfair. While he hasn’t beaten Button as regularly as he would have liked, the Mexican has turned in some rather impressive performances this year – most notably at India, where he battled his way up to fifth.

I wrote a couple of weeks ago for The Sideline Agenda on why I felt the beleaguered Perez should be given another season to prove his worth, but clearly McLaren believe Magnussen to be a better long-term prospect. With next year likely to be a transitional year for the team before they re-join forces with engine suppliers Honda in 2015, they clearly feel the time is right to give the Dane some mileage.

It will nevertheless be a baptism of fire for Magnussen, this year’s Formula Renault 3.5 champion and a member of McLaren’s young driver programme. With McLaren eyeing up Fernando Alonso for 2015, there’s every chance Magnussen could find himself out of favour this time next year if the results aren’t up to scratch. Proving himself at a lower team may have been a more sensible option, but you can hardly blame him for accepting the offer he’s been made.

Perez meanwhile stands a good chance of remaining on the grid for next season thanks to his Telmex backing; his options include a return to Sauber, Force India and Lotus, who are still yet to confirm who will be driving alongside Romain Grosjean next season. The fact that Kimi Raikkonen has opted to miss the final two races of the year to undergo back surgery is the latest twist in this long-running saga.

It had been thought, after the previous race at Abu Dhabi, that an agreement between Raikkonen and incoming investors Quantum Motorsports had been struck that would pay the Finn the salary he was owed and guarantee his attendance at the final two races. You could therefore infer that, as Raikkonen has opted to have surgery now rather than after the end of the season, the promised money never showed.

That in turn would suggest that the Quantum deal that would put Nico Hulkenberg in the second Lotus next year is still far from a foregone conclusion. In fact, the German turned down the opportunity to replace Raikkonen for the last two races as he felt that, without a guarantee of a 2014 race seat, leaving Sauber early was too big a risk to take.

Instead, Lotus have recruited Heikki Kovalainen as Raikkonen’s stand-in, though only after Michael Schumacher turned down an offer from the team to temporarily come out retirement. This means Kovalainen gets his first race outing since being dropped by Caterham, for whom he has done several Friday practice sessions this year, at the end of last season.

This comes a major snub for Lotus reserve Davide Valsecchi, who would have the chance to set the record straight about being the only GP2 champion (besides the recently crowned Fabio Leimer) to have never started an F1 race. Lotus justified their choice by saying they needed somebody experienced to help the team during a crucial battle for constructors’ points, but it does rather throw into question the point of bothering to have a reserve driver.

The other news from the week was the confirmation of what had already been suspected by the F1 paddock for some time – that Felipe Massa is going to Williams to replace Pastor Maldonado. It’s a move that makes sense for both parties: Williams has the biggest potential of the smaller teams to allow Massa to land some big results, whilst the Grove-based outfit need an experienced hand to help them claw their way back up the field next year.

Understandably, little attention has been paid in the build-up to this weekend’s race to what actually might happen on-track, but Sebastian Vettel has to be regarded as favourite to make it eight wins in a row. It’s also worth noting that Austin is one of the few circuits at which he has not yet won a race (Lewis Hamilton beat him in a straight contest last year), something the German will be eager to put right.

As for the fight for the remaining steps on the podium, expect Mark Webber to be right in the mix, as well as de facto Lotus number one Grosjean and one or both of the Mercedes drivers. Hamilton has been rather outgunned by teammate Nico Rosberg at the last two races, but it emerged yesterday that the Brit’s chassis had cracks in it, which undoubtedly will have hindered his performance. It will be interesting to see if he can regain the initiative with a fresh chassis this weekend.

Ferrari have failed to take a podium since Fernando Alonso finished a distant second to Vettel at Singapore, and the chances of them doing so this weekend appear slim unless several of their competitors hit trouble. The team’s main focus is likely to be on holding rivals Lotus at bay in the fight for third place in the constructors’ standings, though they remain within shouting distance of Mercedes, who currently hold second place.

In light of the recent deluge of driver market news, several men arrive at Austin with something of a point to prove, not least of all Perez at what is in essence his home race. Others under pressure include Perez’s countryman Esteban Gutierrez and both Force India drivers, with not one but two well-funded Latin Americans now linked to a drive at Silverstone next year.

Kovalainen meanwhile will be keen to take advantage of this rare opportunity in the limelight and put himself in contention for a full-time return to Caterham next year; both Charles Pic and Giedo van der Garde will be feeling the heat if the Finn is able to exceed expectations this weekend and at the season finale at Interlagos a week later.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Hamilton, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Massa, 7. Hulkenberg, 8. Alonso, 9. Kovalainen, 10. Perez

Race Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Grosjean, 3. Webber, 4. Hamilton, 5. Alonso, 6. Hulkenberg, 7. Massa, 8. Kovalainen, 9. Perez, 10. Sutil

I know, I know, I’ve put Vettel for the win yet again – but can you really blame me? He has been doing rather a lot of winning lately, after all. Joining #DerFinger (as the Mercedes official Twitter account refers to him) on the podium will be Grosjean and Webber, with Hamilton having his best result for a while thanks to his new chassis but still missing out on his first visit to the rostrum since Spa. Alonso meanwhile will come home in fifth place, once again being out-qualified by teammate Massa but making up for it in the race, Hulkenberg separating the pair at the finish.

Kovalainen will give Lotus four valuable points for finishing a solid eighth in his first outing for Enstone since 2007, with the out-of-favour Perez and the dependable Sutil rounding out the point-scorers. No sign of Rosberg, who is due some bad luck after two consecutive podiums, while Button will have another first-lap altercation with one his competitors which will prevent him from scoring points.