United States Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend’s United States Grand Prix, Formula One’s second visit to the state-of-the-art Circuit of the Americas facility, marks the penultimate round of this year’s championship.

Though the widespread consensus is that the inaugural trip to the Texan city of Austin last year was a success, the F1 fraternity is under no illusions that cracking the US market is anything other than a long-term project. The commercial benefits of doing so are obvious, but the acid test will be whether the same enthusiasm for the sport we saw in 2012 exists five or 10 years down the line.

The circuit itself was also given rave reviews by drivers and fans alike. The flowing first sector, ultra-long back straight and technical final sector make it one of the most varied circuits on the calendar, as well as one of the most demanding on the cars, while the steep approach to the first corner makes the venue immediately recognisable, unlike some of the other ‘Tilkedromes’ on the F1 calendar.

Tyre wear is unlikely to be too great a concern as Pirelli have chosen to bring their two hardest tyre compounds, the medium and hard, whilst the presence of two DRS zones – one along the back straight and the other along the start/finish straight – should ensure overtaking doesn’t prove too difficult either.

This week has been a roller-coaster ride of driver market speculation and announcements for both this year and next. The most shocking news, revealed on Monday evening and confirmed by the team on Thursday, was that Kevin Magnussen will be making his F1 debut next season alongside Jenson Button at McLaren, with Sergio Perez being ditched after just a single season at Woking.

It’s been a difficult year for Perez, but I can’t help feel dispensing of his services after such little opportunity to show what he’s made of is a tad unfair. While he hasn’t beaten Button as regularly as he would have liked, the Mexican has turned in some rather impressive performances this year – most notably at India, where he battled his way up to fifth.

I wrote a couple of weeks ago for The Sideline Agenda on why I felt the beleaguered Perez should be given another season to prove his worth, but clearly McLaren believe Magnussen to be a better long-term prospect. With next year likely to be a transitional year for the team before they re-join forces with engine suppliers Honda in 2015, they clearly feel the time is right to give the Dane some mileage.

It will nevertheless be a baptism of fire for Magnussen, this year’s Formula Renault 3.5 champion and a member of McLaren’s young driver programme. With McLaren eyeing up Fernando Alonso for 2015, there’s every chance Magnussen could find himself out of favour this time next year if the results aren’t up to scratch. Proving himself at a lower team may have been a more sensible option, but you can hardly blame him for accepting the offer he’s been made.

Perez meanwhile stands a good chance of remaining on the grid for next season thanks to his Telmex backing; his options include a return to Sauber, Force India and Lotus, who are still yet to confirm who will be driving alongside Romain Grosjean next season. The fact that Kimi Raikkonen has opted to miss the final two races of the year to undergo back surgery is the latest twist in this long-running saga.

It had been thought, after the previous race at Abu Dhabi, that an agreement between Raikkonen and incoming investors Quantum Motorsports had been struck that would pay the Finn the salary he was owed and guarantee his attendance at the final two races. You could therefore infer that, as Raikkonen has opted to have surgery now rather than after the end of the season, the promised money never showed.

That in turn would suggest that the Quantum deal that would put Nico Hulkenberg in the second Lotus next year is still far from a foregone conclusion. In fact, the German turned down the opportunity to replace Raikkonen for the last two races as he felt that, without a guarantee of a 2014 race seat, leaving Sauber early was too big a risk to take.

Instead, Lotus have recruited Heikki Kovalainen as Raikkonen’s stand-in, though only after Michael Schumacher turned down an offer from the team to temporarily come out retirement. This means Kovalainen gets his first race outing since being dropped by Caterham, for whom he has done several Friday practice sessions this year, at the end of last season.

This comes a major snub for Lotus reserve Davide Valsecchi, who would have the chance to set the record straight about being the only GP2 champion (besides the recently crowned Fabio Leimer) to have never started an F1 race. Lotus justified their choice by saying they needed somebody experienced to help the team during a crucial battle for constructors’ points, but it does rather throw into question the point of bothering to have a reserve driver.

The other news from the week was the confirmation of what had already been suspected by the F1 paddock for some time – that Felipe Massa is going to Williams to replace Pastor Maldonado. It’s a move that makes sense for both parties: Williams has the biggest potential of the smaller teams to allow Massa to land some big results, whilst the Grove-based outfit need an experienced hand to help them claw their way back up the field next year.

Understandably, little attention has been paid in the build-up to this weekend’s race to what actually might happen on-track, but Sebastian Vettel has to be regarded as favourite to make it eight wins in a row. It’s also worth noting that Austin is one of the few circuits at which he has not yet won a race (Lewis Hamilton beat him in a straight contest last year), something the German will be eager to put right.

As for the fight for the remaining steps on the podium, expect Mark Webber to be right in the mix, as well as de facto Lotus number one Grosjean and one or both of the Mercedes drivers. Hamilton has been rather outgunned by teammate Nico Rosberg at the last two races, but it emerged yesterday that the Brit’s chassis had cracks in it, which undoubtedly will have hindered his performance. It will be interesting to see if he can regain the initiative with a fresh chassis this weekend.

Ferrari have failed to take a podium since Fernando Alonso finished a distant second to Vettel at Singapore, and the chances of them doing so this weekend appear slim unless several of their competitors hit trouble. The team’s main focus is likely to be on holding rivals Lotus at bay in the fight for third place in the constructors’ standings, though they remain within shouting distance of Mercedes, who currently hold second place.

In light of the recent deluge of driver market news, several men arrive at Austin with something of a point to prove, not least of all Perez at what is in essence his home race. Others under pressure include Perez’s countryman Esteban Gutierrez and both Force India drivers, with not one but two well-funded Latin Americans now linked to a drive at Silverstone next year.

Kovalainen meanwhile will be keen to take advantage of this rare opportunity in the limelight and put himself in contention for a full-time return to Caterham next year; both Charles Pic and Giedo van der Garde will be feeling the heat if the Finn is able to exceed expectations this weekend and at the season finale at Interlagos a week later.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Hamilton, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Massa, 7. Hulkenberg, 8. Alonso, 9. Kovalainen, 10. Perez

Race Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Grosjean, 3. Webber, 4. Hamilton, 5. Alonso, 6. Hulkenberg, 7. Massa, 8. Kovalainen, 9. Perez, 10. Sutil

I know, I know, I’ve put Vettel for the win yet again – but can you really blame me? He has been doing rather a lot of winning lately, after all. Joining #DerFinger (as the Mercedes official Twitter account refers to him) on the podium will be Grosjean and Webber, with Hamilton having his best result for a while thanks to his new chassis but still missing out on his first visit to the rostrum since Spa. Alonso meanwhile will come home in fifth place, once again being out-qualified by teammate Massa but making up for it in the race, Hulkenberg separating the pair at the finish.

Kovalainen will give Lotus four valuable points for finishing a solid eighth in his first outing for Enstone since 2007, with the out-of-favour Perez and the dependable Sutil rounding out the point-scorers. No sign of Rosberg, who is due some bad luck after two consecutive podiums, while Button will have another first-lap altercation with one his competitors which will prevent him from scoring points.