16 August 2014

F1 Mid-season Driver Ratings 2014

With the F1 fraternity enjoying the last week of its summer break before returning to action at Spa-Francorchamps next weekend, it's time to reveal my mid-season driver ratings in what has so far been a spectacular season of racing:

Lewis Hamilton (GB, Mercedes) 2nd in Championship, 5 wins, 4 poles, 191pts              
Rating: A-

Had this post been written just after the Spanish Grand Prix, where Hamilton took a fourth successive win after another tight battle with Nico Rosberg, it would be hard to award the Briton anything other than full marks. But, since that infamous qualifying session in Monaco, it's the German who has gained the upper hand between the two Mercedes team-mates.

One particularly illuminating stat is that every time Hamilton hasn't been on pole, he has been outqualified by Rosberg - a poor reflection on a driver whose single lap pace is often regarded as his strongest suit. Admittedly, car troubles at Hockenheim and the Hungaroring have played their part, but then again so have crucial errors at the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone.

Hamilton was fortunate that gearbox failure for Rosberg at Silverstone allowed him to claw back precious ground in the championship, but his recovery drives at the following two races were both masterclasses in damage limitation. Beating his title adversary at Hungary despite his pitlane start in particular will have given the 2008 champion a vital psychological boost going into the latter half of the year.

Nico Rosberg (D, Mercedes) 1st in Championship, 4 wins, 6 poles, 202 pts
Rating: A 

After the Spanish Grand Prix, where Rosberg was beaten by Hamilton for a fourth time in succession, many were beginning to question whether the destiny of the title was already decided; whether the German could possibly mount a fight-back from such a position of weakness. But, since then, Rosberg has lived up to the title favourite billing with which many observers had assigned him pre-season.

Whatever your thoughts on the events of qualifying at Monaco, it was Rosberg who had set the quicker first run in Q3 - going on to outqualify Hamilton in the next three races. The points leader was also unfortunate to lose potential victories in both Canada and Britain to mechanical woes, while the timing of the safety car in Hungary was also unfortunate, though that doesn't fully excuse Rosberg from ultimately finishing behind his team-mate.

It's unlikely that Rosberg is going to have a better opportunity to win the title than the one he has this season, and so far he has proven he has both the speed and the mental fortitude to get the job done. Unreliability has had a part in tilting the scales in Nico's favour, but his sheer consistency and coolness in the face of adversity have played an equally important role.

Sebastian Vettel (D, Red Bull) 6th in Championship, 2 podiums, 88pts
Rating: 

A combination of Mercedes supremacy and the loss of the exhaust-blown diffuser meant that Vettel was always going to be in for a harder time in 2014 than he had become accustomed to in his championship years. But, few could have predicted the struggle the four-time champion has endured in his bid to get on top of the new regulations, as well as his ultra-quick new team-mate Daniel Ricciardo.

Indeed, on just one occasion when both Red Bull cars have finished has Vettel beaten Ricciardo, on home turf at Hockenheim, where the latter lost time avoiding the Massa-Magnussen collision, while the German has been soundly beaten in qualifying 7-4. That's not to say that Vettel has driven poorly, but he has clearly failed to extract the most from the RB10 this year.

Daniel Ricciardo (AU, Red Bull) 3rd in Championship, 2 wins, 131pts
Rating: A+ 

The only man not blessed with a Mercedes to have tasted victory this season, Ricciardo has started to deliver on the promise shown in his junior career and his two years at Toro Rosso, becoming a bona fide part of the sport's elite crop of drivers. In fact, he's been the revelation of the season, making his far more illustrious team-mate Vettel look rather average by comparison.

Finishing second in front of his home fans prior to his disqualification at Melbourne set the tone for a season that has been full of great drives, Ricciardo shaking off his previous reputation of being a strong qualifier but a mediocre racer. Both of his wins in Canada and Hungary may have owed something to good fortune, but on each occasion the Aussie made the most of the golden opportunity presented to him.

Fernando Alonso (E, Ferrari) 4th in Championship, 2 podiums, 115pts
Rating: A+

Despite the enormous frustration of Ferrari being yet again unable to provide him with a title contending car in 2014, Alonso has done nothing to dissuade his supporters of their view that he remains the best driver in the business. Indeed, while team-mate Kimi Raikkonen has finished inside the top six just once, the Spaniard has managed to finish in at least that position at every race bar one - at Bahrain, where he sarcastically celebrated a ninth place finish at a track where the F14 T's deficiencies were ruthlessly exposed.

The highlight undoubtedly came in Hungary, where a gamble on tyre strategy very nearly yielded the unlikeliest of victories. It was nevertheless refreshing to see Alonso back in the spotlight having finished a superb second, after so many races where similar heroics have gone rather unnoticed amid a backdrop of Mercedes domination.

Kimi Raikkonen (FIN, Ferrari) 12th in Championship, 27pts
Rating: D

Unquestionably the disappointment of the season, Raikkonen has for much of 2014 seemed a shadow of his former self, struggling to adapt to the handling characteristics of this year's new breed of machinery. Beating Alonso was always going to be a tall order, but nobody was expecting the Finn to be trounced quite so soundly by the two-time champion heading into the season.

The statistics in this regard speak for themselves: just twice this season has Raikkonen out-qualified Alonso in 11 races, while the Finn hasn't finished ahead once. The fact he was denied a likely podium by a collision with backmarker Max Chilton at Monaco - the one circuit where Raikkonen looked to truly have the measure of Alonso - just about summed up his year so far. Will it be his last in the sport? 

Jenson Button (GB, McLaren) 8th in Championship, 1 podium, 60pts
Rating: B+ 

Casual observers would be forgiven for thinking that, considering all the speculation surrounding his future, Button has suffered a rather mediocre season thus far. But, the reality is that the Brit has performed consistently well given the limitations of his machinery, responding positively to the threat of new team-mate Kevin Magnussen after the shock of being beaten first time out at Melbourne.

The qualifying battle between the pair stands at 6-5 in Button's favour, fourth places at Montreal and Silverstone ranking as the 34-year-old's best performances of the season. But, while he has had the measure of Magnussen at the vast majority of races this year, anything less would have been considered disastrous - you still can't help but wonder whether Button is the right man to lead McLaren going forward. 

Kevin Magnussen (DK, McLaren) 10th in Championship, 1 podium, 37pts
Rating: B

Hopes were already high for Magnussen when he arrived as the sport's new kid on the block at Melbourne, and after a phenomenal drive to second at the curtain-raiser, comparisons with Hamilton, the last rookie McLaren took a chance on, were being bandied about with eyebrow-raising frequency. That pressure might explain why Magnussen's subsequent performances were slightly more fraught, notwithstanding his machinery's competitive slump.

That he has the speed to challenge team-mate Button isn't in doubt; but his inexperience at stringing together complete race weekends had been evident. More recently however, Magnussen has begun to mature into a more consistent performer, his seventh place finish at Austria standing out as his most impressive post-Australia result. Expect him to give \Button a harder time from now until the end of the year.

Felipe Massa (BR, Williams) 9th in Championship, 1 pole, 40pts
Rating: B-

If Massa knew deep down during his time at Ferrari that matching the standard set by Alonso would be nigh-on impossible, he must have arrived at Williams this season confident of putting upstart team-mate Valtteri Bottas in his place. But, far from stamping his authority over the far less experienced Finn, the veteran Brazilian has been outscored by a ratio of two-to-one and outqualified 7-4.

True enough, plenty of points have gone begging thanks to incidents that weren't his fault and team blunders early in the year, but Massa hasn't made enough of the pace of the Williams when things have gone his way - Austria, where he took pole but lost out to Bottas to come home fourth, being a prime example. His self-inflicted retirement at Hockenheim was also inexcusable for a driver of Massa's experience.

Valtteri Bottas (FIN, Williams) 5th in Championship, 3 podiums, 95pts
Rating: 

If Ricciardo has been the stand-out young driver of 2014 so far, then Bottas has to come a close second, spearheading this year's Williams renaissance and convincingly shading stablemate Massa. The only major error the Finn has made all season was at Melbourne, where he threw away a likely second place, but he has atoned for that more recently with three consecutive podium visits.

The first of these came at Austria, Bottas beating polesitting teammate Massa in a straight fight to clinch the final podium spot behind the two Mercedes. His charge from 14th on the grid to second at Silverstone was one of the drives of the season, while holding off Hamilton to repeat the result two weeks later at Hockenheim was another measured performance by a driver who seems destined for big things.

Nico Hulkenberg (D, Force India), 7th in Championship, 69pts
Rating: B+ 

Returning to Force India after a season at Sauber, Hulkenberg has proven solid rather than spectacular this year so far. Where team-mate Sergio Perez took the team's most eye-catching result with third at Bahrain, Hulkenberg hasn't finished higher than fifth - though he has done so on four occasions, scoring the lion's share of Force India's constructors' points as a result.

The German has also outqualified his younger team-mate 9-2, and, prior to the Hungarian Grand Prix, he shared the honour with Alonso of being the only driver to have scored points in every race. His ill-judged overtaking move on Perez nonetheless left the Ferrari driver in a class of one in that respect, but that has been the sole blot on an otherwise very neat copybook.

Sergio Perez (MEX, Force India), 11th in Championship, 1 podium, 29pts
Rating: B-

While Perez was massively unlucky to join McLaren last season at the team's lowest ebb in over 30 years, the Mexican has equally proved fortunate to have arrived at Force India just as the Silverstone-based team has got itself in a position to fight for its best ever constructors' finish. Indeed, a superb podium finish at Bahrain by Perez immediately bettered his best finish of fifth achieved last season.

But, since then, things have been decidedly up-and-down for the 24-year-old. He cost himself potential strong finishes at both Monaco and Canada, where, in hindsight, Perez should have been more circumspect defending from Massa given his car's brake problems. A storming drive to sixth at Austria followed, but Perez needs to find more consistency if he's ever to put himself back in contention for a top-line drive.

The Rest

It would be fair to say that Jean-Eric Vergne (B) faced an impossible task this season this season having missed out on the promotion to Red Bull to Ricciardo, but it's one he has performed admirably in spite of Toro Rosso's poor reliability, picking up four points finishes and out-qualifying his team-mate 6-5.

Vergne's only problem is that his team-mate is Daniil Kvyat (B+), who became the sport's youngest ever points-scorer at Melbourne and has belied his inexperience with his consistent pace since. The Russian is already shaping up nicely as Red Bull's next star to slot alongside Ricciardo when Vettel decides to leave, leaving Vergne in a rather tricky situation.

Romain Grosjean (B)  has had to endure a trying season with Lotus after his heroics in the second half of 2013, squeezing just eight points out of what has been the worst car to come out of Enstone in more than a decade. Qualifying fifth at Spain was a particular highlight for the Frenchman, who has done more than enough to warrant better machinery for next year.

Indeed, Grosjean has hammered team-mate Pastor Maldonado (E), who despite now being in his fourth season in F1 continues to make errors that would be barely excusable for a novice. Worse still, he's been outqualified 10-1 by Grosjean - and qualifying is meant to be the Venezuelan's forté. He must be breathing a sigh of relief that his PDVSA backing has bought him at least one more season with Lotus.

Adrian Sutil (C) is hardly one to outperform the machinery at his disposal, so it shouldn't come as any real surprise that he's yet to get on the scoreboard in this year's dismal Sauber, a pair of 11th places standing as the German's best results. Whether he keeps his seat for next year will largely depend on money, though this year has arguably proved that the 31-year-old is past his sell-by date at this level.

The fate of Esteban Gutierrez (D) will also be determined primarily by what cash is available, but on merit the young Mexican has done little to suggest he deserves a third season at Sauber. He has outqualified Sutil 6-5, but his race performances have largely been scrappy, with his mistake at Monaco costing the Hinwil-based team its only realistic shot at points this season so far.

Jules Bianchi (A-) on the other hand was superb at Monaco, his reward being the first two points of his career and Marussia's existence. The Frenchman, who has also made two Q2 visits in the least three races, has predictably had the measure of team-mate Max Chilton (C-) and is surely set for greener pastures next year while the Brit's F1 career looks to be heading nowhere fast.

It's been a difficult return to the sport for Caterham's Kamui Kobayashi (C+), who has done about as well as could be expected, even making Q2 in Melbourne, but is nonetheless far from certain to see out the year. Marcus Ericsson (D) meanwhile has been singularly unspectacular, never qualifying higher than 20th; the Swede needs to do more relative to his team-mate if he ever wants to shake off his 'pay driver' tag.

29 July 2014

MotoGP Mid-season Rider Ratings

With nine races down and nine still to go in this year's MotoGP season, it's time to take stock and grade each of the riders on the grid for their performances so far. There are no prizes for guessing who has earned the best rating, but further down the order it's been a mixed bag. Read on for my verdicts:

Marc Marquez (E, Repsol Honda) - 1st in Championship, 9 wins, 7 poles, 225pts          
Rating: A+

What more is there to say about this Spanish sensation that hasn't already been said? Other riders have achieved similar dominance in the sport's history - John Surtees, Mike Hailwood, Giacomo Agostini, Mick Doohan and Valentino Rossi, to name a few - but none of them have done so in the face of such stiff opposition as that encountered by Marquez.

Two-time champion Jorge Lorenzo, Repsol Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa and a resurgent Rossi have all been made to look average this season by the 21-year-old, whose ability to carve his way through the field when out of position and to defend from the sternest of attacks has been utterly peerless this year.

With nine successive wins now under his belt, the only remaining question mark surrounding Marquez's season is just how long he can keep up this incredible streak; that bookmakers are offering odds as low as 9/2 for him to win each of the remaining races tells you all you need to know about the magnitude of his talent.

Dani Pedrosa (E, Repsol Honda) - 2nd in Championship, 7 podiums, 1 pole, 148pts                      
Rating: B+

With Marquez running rampant in the other side of the Repsol Honda garage, it's impossible not to feel some pity for Pedrosa. Arguably, the 28-year-old has missed his best chances of shaking off the tag of being the greatest rider in MotoGP history without a premier-class title to his name - especially now he has committed himself to Honda for a further two seasons alongside Marquez.

That said, there has been some cause for optimism in recent races: after two particularly subdued outings at Le Mans and Mugello, Catalunya saw Pedrosa only narrowly lose out to Marquez in a close duel for supremacy, whilst Dani kept his younger teammate honest at the Sachsenring despite never getting quite close enough to mount a veritable challenge.

The title is of course now out of the question, but if Pedrosa can continue to make life as hard for Marquez as he has managed to in recent rounds, the chances are that he'll be able to best the reigning champion on at least one occasion before the year is out. Doing so will be vital to rebuilding the confidence needed to mount a renewed title assault next year.

Jorge Lorenzo (Movistar Yamaha) - 5th in Championship, 3 podiums, 97pts
Rating: B-

Having lost out to Marquez in last year's title race by such a narrow margin, it seemed that 2014 could well have proved to be the second chapter in a compelling rivalry between he and Lorenzo for supremacy. But, some crucial errors combined with a failure to adapt to the new generation of Bridgestone tyres has left Lorenzo lagging badly behind his main rivals in the points standings.

An early fall from the lead at Qatar and a jump start at Austin marked a downright dreadful start to the year for the Mallorcan, though the nadir of his year was unquestionably his tentative ride to 13th in the wet at Assen, the scene of his collarbone-breaking incident last year.

That said, Lorenzo's nail-biting dice with Marquez at Mugello served as a timely reminder of just what the two-time champion is capable of when he's fully in sync with his bike, whilst his third place last time out in Germany ahead of teammate Rossi will come as a much-needed confidence booster heading into the latter half of the year. He'll certainly need to build some momentum heading into 2015 if he is to have any chance of halting the Marquez juggernaut.

Valentino Rossi (I, Movistar Yamaha) - 3rd in Championship, 5 podiums, 141pts              
Rating: A

Coming into the season, aged 35 and having made the unpopular decision of jettisoning long-time crew chief Jerry Burgess at the end of 2013, Rossi was in last-chance saloon. His contract was up for renewal at the end of the year, the Italian giving himself just six races to decide whether or not to call it a day at the end of the year.

But, if the story of 2014 so far has been Marquez's domination, then Rossi's rejuvenation has to rank as the main subplot. Losing out to the Spaniard by the narrowest margins at Qatar set the tone, the Yamaha rider backing this result up with further second places at Jerez, Le Mans and Catalunya, as well as a spirited recovery to fifth at Assen from a pit-lane start in the sort of conditions in which 'The Doctor' so often revels.

Indeed, Rossi has more often than not had the measure of his teammate Lorenzo, his reward being a contract extension that will see him remain in the sport for a further two years - which is excellent news for all MotoGP fans. You'd be brave to bet against the seven-time champion adding to his already incredible haul of 80 premier class victories in that time.

Andrea Dovizioso (I, Ducati Team) - 4th in Championship, 2 podiums, 99pts
Rating: A

Transcending the limits of your bike is always the mark of a great rider, and that's precisely what Dovizioso has done so far this season in his second year aboard the recalcitrant Ducati. And while it's unfortunate that the talented 28-year-old doesn't have a faster bike with which to ply his trade, at least the Italian manufacturer, now under the stewardship of Gigi Dall'Igna, looks to be making tangible progress.

After a year devoid of podium finishes in 2013, Dovizioso has already made two visits to the rostrum this season, finishing a strong third at Austin behind the two Repsol Honda riders before making a return visit in Assen in the wet - always an ideal opportunity to show what you're truly made of. In between, the Italian has maximised his points-scoring opportunities at just about every race to lie fourth in the standings heading into the summer break.

Having been fairly evenly matched with teammate Nicky Hayden last year, Dovizioso has firmly stamped his authority on new arrival Cal Crutchlow, with whom he was paired at Tech 3 in 2012. The benefit of a year's experience of the Ducati modus operandi has helped, but then so has the fact that 'Dovi' is riding as well as any previous stage in his career right now - or indeed as well as anyone else on the grid bar Marquez.

Cal Crutchlow (GB, Ducati Team) - 14th in Championship, 28pts
Rating: C-

History shows that, unless your name is Casey Stoner, your first season with Ducati tends to be a fairly bruising experience. And, in Crutchlow's case, such has been the case quite literally, the popular Coventry rider having had to miss the third round of the year in Argentina after injuring his hand in a crash during the previous race in Austin.

The year started well enough with a solid ride to sixth place at Qatar (albeit a full 16 seconds shy of teammate Dovizioso) on an evening when many of his rivals contrived to throw their bikes into the scenery, but thereafter Crutchlow has garnered a rather meagre 18 points - thanks partially to unreliability at Jerez and Catalunya, but also to his alleged struggles to adapt to the riding position of his Ducati mount.

Such has been the degree of the Brit's struggles that he's been eclipsed not only by Dovizioso but also by Pramac rider Andrea Iannone, who would surely have been promoted to the factory team if not for the fact that Crutchlow is contracted to remain at Ducati for one more year. Let's hope, then, as has been the case for Dovizioso, Cal's second season with the Bologna marque is a far happier one.

Stefan Bradl (D, LCR Honda) - 9th in Championship, 56pts
Rating: B-

Now in his third season at MotoGP level, it seems Bradl is in danger of being eclipsed by a new generation of young riders. After an explosive start to the season at Qatar, where the LCR Honda man led before undoing all his hard work with a crash at one-third distance, Bradl has struggled to be a regular fixture at the very sharp end of the grid.

He finished a strong fourth at Austin, and banked top-five finishes at Argentina and Catalunya, but has been anonymous elsewhere. He of course led the opening laps of his home race at the Sachsenring as every other factory rider opted for a pit-lane start, but was on a hiding to nothing with a bike set up for the wet on a rapidly drying track, plummeting down the order before eventually trailing home 16th.

It was a shame the gamble squandered his first front-row grid slot since Austin, especially at a time when his future hangs in the balance. Team boss Lucio Cecchinello is said to be keen on retaining Bradl, but rumour has it that HRC wants Moto3 points leader Jack Miller to take over the seat. Whether or not LCR is able to expand to a two-bike line-up is therefore likely to be key to the former Moto2 champion's fate.

Alvaro Bautista (E, Gresini Honda) - 10th in Championship, 1 podium, 50pts
Rating: C+

You could say that Bautista's season has been fairly similar to that of his fellow satellite Honda rider Bradl, only with higher peaks and deeper troughs. Where the German's best result of the year thus far has been fourth place, Bautista was able to clinch an impressive third place at Le Mans; equally, while Bradl has made just one trip to the gravel that could be described as his fault, the Spaniard has had three.

That's an unacceptable number of points squandered for a rider of Bautista's experience, and rather a surprise after a remarkably consistent latter half of 2013. There have been times when he's had the clear measure of Bradl, notably at Jerez and Le Mans, but direct comparisons between the pair are misleading given that the Gresini man is the sole factory rider in the field using Showa suspension and Nissin brakes.

It seems all but certain Bautista will have to make way for Open class teammate Scott Redding next season, which means that the 29-year-old will be relying on Aprilia to push forward their planned MotoGP return by one year if he's to remain aboard factory machinery. Otherwise, there could be an opening at Aspar, which may not be a bad place to be next year ahead of standard ECUs being introduced across the board in 2016.

Bradley Smith (GB, Tech 3 Yamaha) - 11th in Championship, 48pts
Rating: C

"I have to give them no option," Smith said coming into the season, referring to his mission to secure a factory seat in 2015. But, such has been the mediocrity of his sophomore campaign so far, it appears he is giving his current Tech 3 squad little option but to leave the young Oxfordshire rider in search of alternative employment next year.

It all started so promisingly for Smith at Qatar, taking his best-ever grid slot with third place and sticking with the lead bunch until a late fall cost him the chance of a top-five finish. He redeemed himself with a feisty ride to fifth at Austin, but has failed to crack the top half-dozen since, having been soundly outpaced by rookie teammate Pol Espargaro at just about every race since his team's home round at Le Mans.

Consistency was perhaps Smith's biggest virtue last season, but even that seems to have deserted the 23-year-old, who has crashed three times in nine races in his desperation to impress the factory teams. Now the most coveted rides look to be locked down for another two seasons, Smith can shift his focus to convincing Tech 3 to keep him for a third season, though he'll need to up his game considerably to do so.

Pol Espargaro (E, Tech 3 Yamaha) - 7th in Championship, 67pts
Rating: B

Of all the riders in MotoGP currently, Espargaro is arguably under the most under pressure of all. Why? Because, with Rossi in the twilight of his career and Lorenzo struggling to recapture his best form, Yamaha need an answer to the phenomenon that is Marquez, and the reigning Moto2 champion may well prove to be the best response they have in the medium-term.

Bearing that in mind, it's perhaps understandable that the first few rounds for the younger of the two Espargaro brothers were somewhat low-key, but glimpses of his future potential have started to show. The turning point was at Le Mans, where, after qualifying second, he was tantalisingly close to his maiden podium finish before being pipped at the last by Bautista - on a day where teammate Smith struggled home to 10th.

Since then, it's not been much of a contest between the Tech 3 riders, with Espargaro seemingly first in line for a promotion to the works Yamaha squad when Lorenzo departs. That's highly unlikely to happen next year, with all the other factory seats ostensibly decided (bar Aprilia, who may or may not be present), but seeing Pol take the fight to Marquez on a works bike in 2016 is far from beyond the realms of possibility.

Andrea Iannone (I, Pramac Ducati) - 8th in Championship, 62pts
Rating: A-

After a fairly quiet debut season aboard the Pramac Ducati last year, Iannone has started to come of age as a MotoGP rider in 2014, establishing himself as one of the brightest future prospects in the series with a series of eye-catching rides. The first of these came at the second round in Austin, where he incredibly ran third, ahead of Dovizioso's factory-spec machine, for around two thirds of the race.

But his best performance of all was on home soil at Mugello. Having qualified an outstanding second, less than two tenths adrift of pole-sitter Marquez, he led briefly and ran inside the top five for the majority of the race before slumping to seventh in the closing laps. There have been one or two blots on his copybook, such as his clash with Nicky Hayden at Le Mans, but that's to be expected for a rider of his level of experience.

Iannone had been angling for a promotion to the full works squad, which seemed inevitable before Ducati announced it would be retaining its existing line-up. Rather than take the risk of signing with series returnees Suzuki, the 24-year-old will now remain at Pramac next year, albeit with the same specification bike as the factory boys - don't be surprised if the rider they call 'Crazy Joe' proves quicker than either in 2015.

Aleix Espargaro (E, Forward Racing) - 6th in Championship, 1 pole, 77pts
Rating: A

If Espargaro's decision to spurn Aspar in favour of Forward Racing ahead of this season was regarded as something of a risk by the MotoGP fraternity, it's one that has certainly paid dividends for the rider who has consistently proven the outstanding rider of the Open (née CRT) class since its inception in 2012.

This year's Forward machine may amount to little more than a two-year-old Yamaha M1 with standard electronics, but Espargaro has made considerably better use of such machinery than his struggling teammate Colin Edwards, having been the first Open class rider across the line at every race bar Argentina. An outright pole position achieved in the wet of Assen served to further underline the 24-year-old's sheer class.

Such heroics make one wonder what Espargaro might be capable of with a more competitive bike at his disposal. There was talk of Aleix heading to Tech 3 to join brother Pol, but it now appears that the elder of the Espargaro brothers is Suzuki-bound for 2015. Having done more than enough to deserve a shot on a winning bike, he'll be hoping the Japanese manufacturer can supply exactly that in the next couple of seasons.

The Rest:

The lack of the Honda RCV1000R's competitiveness this season will have come as a disappointment to Scott Redding (B+), but the Gresini rider has been the first of the Open Honda quartet home on four of a possible nine occasions despite his class rookie status - with a promotion to the factory machine next season in place of Bautista looking very likely.

The Gloucestershire rider's main opposition has come in the form of Aspar's Nicky Hayden (B), who has struggled somewhat with wrist pain since his crash at Le Mans; fingers crossed that the surgery the 2006 champion recently underwent will allow him to return to peak form in time for his next home race at Indianapolis.

Hiroshi Aoyama (C), aboard the second Aspar bike, has only beat his teammate twice when they've both finished and needs to be doing more in order to be sure of retaining his seat, while Karel Abraham (C) has largely been similarly unspectacular aboard the Cardion Honda - although his ride is decidedly more secure.

Yonny Hernandez (B-) seems to have tamed his wild streak of 2013 somewhat, having finished every race, but as the sole Open class Ducati representative it is very difficult to pass accurate judgement on the Colombian, who is hoping to be given the latest-spec machinery by the Italian manufacturer next season.

The same cannot be said for the elder statesman of the grid, Colin Edwards (D-), who has scored just eight points all year while his Forward Racing teammate Aleix Espargaro has regularly mixed it with the factory bikes - it's a crying shame that the popular Texan's career is set to come to a close in such ignominious fashion.

Hector Barbera (B) has done well to squeeze two points out of a hopelessly uncompetitive Avintia-Kawasaki, and will be hoping that the team's switch to Open class Ducati machinery heralds a rise up the pecking order next year. The Spaniard has easily had the measure of teammate and class rookie Mike Di Meglio (C-). 

Ioda Racing's Danilo Petrucci (B-) has performed admirably in spite of missing four races due to wrist injury, while Broc Parkes (C) earns a superior grade to teammate Michael Laverty (C-) solely for the best underdog ride of the year yet which yielded an 11th place at Assen aboard the unfancied PBM machine.

10 July 2014

The 2014 Silly Season Gets Underway

Speculation over which drivers are heading where for the following season seems to begin earlier and earlier each year in Formula One, and this year's silly season now appears to have kicked off in earnest following comments from McLaren boss Ron Dennis in the run-up to last weekend's British Grand Prix that Jenson Button needs to "try harder".

The Briton responded to this jibe in the best possible way at Silverstone, taking his best result since the season opener at Melbourne and coming within a second of breaking his podium duck at his home circuit, but it appears to be accepted wisdom that McLaren have been knocking on the door of potential replacements for Button in the form of both Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton.





While it would take a peculiar set of circumstances indeed to compel the latter to re-join the very team he spurned at the end of 2014 to join the now-dominant Mercedes outfit, a return to McLaren for Alonso is a somewhat more viable prospect, albeit not the near-certainty it seemed six months ago prior to Dennis' return to prominence at Woking.

Prior to his dismissal as McLaren team principal, Martin Whitmarsh is understood to have been angling for Alonso to return, travelling to Madrid late last year in a bid to arrange a pre-agreement of sorts with the Spaniard - who himself told the media last year that any lingering resentments towards the team over his tempestuous 2007 season were because of "one man", in whose absence he would have no problem returning.

The man to which Alonso was referring is of course Dennis, but if the two-time champion was to arrive at the conclusion that McLaren and Honda are more likely to provide him with a title-winning car than Ferrari, any personal disagreements would surely be cast aside; equally, it's difficult to see Dennis taking issue to welcoming back to his team the man that many still rate as the very best on the grid.

With Alonso staring down the barrel of his first win-free season since he joined Ferrari, the possibility of jumping ship at the end of the year must surely have crossed his mind on more than one occasion - but with Mercedes and Red Bull all but certain to retain their existing driver line-ups, returning to McLaren is the only other viable option besides staying put at the Scuderia.




But, it's a risky choice: Honda's past success is by no means a guarantee that the Japanese firm's 2015 engine will be of similar quality to their offerings of the late 1980s, while McLaren, despite the vast resources at their disposal, as of late seem to have forgotten how to produce a chassis worthy of contending for the title.

It may thus be a case of better the devil you know for Alonso, who would be well-advised to give Ferrari, now under the stewardship of Marco Mattiacci, one final chance to deliver the goods next season whilst simultaneously keeping a close eye on the progress of the renewed McLaren-Honda alliance as well investigating the possibilities of any vacancies arising at either Mercedes or Red Bull.

Such a scenario gives Button one final chance to end his career on a high note after two seasons saddled with substandard machinery. Coming into this season, it seemed conceivable that this season may have proven the last in the sport for the 34-year-old, but the way he has responded to the challenge of fending off young Kevin Magnussen in the other side of the garage has been admirable.

But, if the second most senior driver on the grid looks to have done enough to prolong his career, things look a great deal less certain for the elder statesman. Kimi Raikkonen has endured an utterly torrid season, having been out-qualified 7-2 by teammate Alonso so far this year and having finished no higher than seventh place. The Finn languishes down in 12th in the drivers' standings on 19 points, versus 87 for the Spaniard.




On only two occasions this year has Raikkonen appeared even vaguely like the driver who won Ferrari's last drivers' title back in 2007 - at Spain, where he out-qualified Alonso and kept the home favourite at bay until the dying stages of the race, and at Monaco, where a likely podium finish went begging after Max Chilton contrived to give him a puncture during a Safety Car period.

Clearly, this isn't what Ferrari had in mind when they selected Raikkonen to replace Felipe Massa, much less when they agreed to remunerate the Iceman to the tune of a reputed $14m per year. Raikkonen's return to Ferrari was supposed to serve as a reminder to Alonso that no one man is bigger than the team; if he can't regularly challenge the Spaniard, what purpose does his presence at the team serve?

Then there's the question of motivation. Only Kimi himself knows exactly how motivated he is at this late stage in his career, though the fact he has recently gone on record to say that he will probably retire from the sport at the end of his existing contract with Ferrari, which expires at the end of 2015, is hardly the sign of somebody desperate to add a second world title to his resumé.

So, is history destined to repeat itself? Will Raikkonen and Ferrari once again agree to part ways with a year still to run on their contract? The reason the Finn was forced out of the picture last time around in 2010 was because of Ferrari's eagerness to begin their partnership with Alonso, but there appears to be no equivalent on the scene this time around as long as Mercedes and Red Bull maintain their current line-ups.



The likes of Nico Hulkenberg and Romain Grosjean would be available; both are ready to step up to a top team and would probably push Alonso harder than an out-of-sorts Raikkonen. But the real question is whether Ferrari are sufficiently desperate to get a younger, hungrier driver in their second car to atone for the embarrassment of effectively announcing that they were wrong to re-sign Kimi in the first place.

Assuming Raikkonen wishes to continue for one more year, therefore, there is likely to be a place for him at Ferrari, all the more so because the team have a ready-made replacement in the form of Ferrari Academy member Jules Bianchi ready to fill the breach in 2016 - who could be stationed at a midfield outfit next year to serve the final year of his apprenticeship after two assured seasons at Marussia.

In the event Raikkonen does decide to hang up his helmet come November, Ferrari could decide to fast-track Bianchi to the seat alongside Alonso next year, which would have the benefit of providing continuity heading into 2016 should Fernando indeed opt to depart Maranello at that stage. Alternatively, the Scuderia could sign either Hulkenberg or Grosjean on a one-year deal before re-assessing their options for 2016.

Elsewhere, Williams and Force India are likely to retain their existing line-ups, although Bianchi, the team's third driver in 2012, would be the obvious option to fill the void at the latter team left by Hulkenberg were the German to be given the call-up by Ferrari. Bianchi could also end up at Lotus in place of compatriot Grosjean if the Franco-Swiss was selected to replace Raikkonen.




Grosjean has expressed his desire to step up to a regular race-winning outfit next year, but Ferrari isn't the only potential destination in that regard. Eric Boullier's appointment by McLaren at the start of the year sparked rumours that Grosjean could be destined for a drive at Woking in 2015, and such a move remains a possibility. But, of the team's existing drivers, it would probably be Magnussen who would have to make way.

That may seem harsh given that the young Dane has done a solid job in a less-than-competitive car this year, but having such an inexperienced driver on board has clearly hindered development of the recalcitrant MP4-29. Loaning Magnussen out to a rival outfit before bringing him back to the fold a couple of years down the line, when the team has returned to winning ways, is an option, much as Williams did with Button in spite of a strong debut season back in 2000.

Either way, it looks as if Grosjean's time at Lotus is coming to an end now that the Enstone outfit have announced a switch to Mercedes power for 2015, which is almost certain to herald the departure of fuel company Total, Grosjean's main backer. Should no vacancies emerge at either Ferrari or McLaren, Force India may be able to offer refuge to the 28-year-old.

Pastor Maldonado, meanwhile, seems certain to remain on board at Lotus as long as his PDVSA cash doesn't dry up - although the Venezuelan state oil concern, in this writer's opinion, should look carefully at the possibility of switching their backing to promising GP2 racer Johnny Cecotto Jr. in the wake of what has been an unacceptably scrappy first half of the season for Maldonado.

One driver set to make his F1 debut next season is Carlos Sainz Jr., championship leader in Formula Renault 3.5, who would replace Jean-Eric Vergne alongside Daniil Kvyat at Toro Rosso. The Russian now has to be regarded as odds-on favourite to ultimately step up to Red Bull ahead of Vergne, which leaves no place for the Frenchman at a team whose raison d'être is to prepare young talents for the senior squad; a third driver role at Red Bull for Vergne could beckon.



Things are looking more fluid over at the cash-strapped Sauber team. The Swiss outfit will be reluctant to drop Adrian Sutil after a single season, but key to the German's fate - along with the somewhat underwhelming Esteban Gutierrez - will be money. Ex-Caterham driver Giedo van der Garde, the team's third driver, could well make his race return next year at Hinwil on that basis, while Sergey Sirotkin and Simona de Silvestro are also options for the team, albeit much riskier ones.

It's a similar story at Marussia, where there is set to be at least one seat up for grabs as Bianchi moves up the pecking order. Chilton could yet remain for a third season depending on the state of his finances, with last year's GP2 champion Fabio Leimer a prime contender to join the Banbury outfit. Jolyon Palmer, who currently leads the points in the official feeder series, could also be in contention if the requisite money can be found.

It's unclear whether Caterham will be on the grid next year, let alone who will be driving for the team recently sold by a disillusioned Tony Fernandes. Colin Kolles' involvement in the beleaguered squad's sale to a group of Arab investors has also raised questions of whether the squad will be merged with the Romanian-backed Forza Rossa outfit, which has been granted an entry by the FIA for 2015.

Assuming there is an 11th team, Marcus Ericsson is likely to stick around, although he could take his cash to Marussia if the Leafield-based team don't resurface next year. On the other hand, Kamui Kobayashi surely doesn't have the money to remain on board for a second year and would probably be replaced by a well-funded GP2 racer; Julian Leal and Rio Haryanto have driven for the team in testing, while Nathanael Berthon has recently been announced as a junior driver for the squad.