F1 2011: Sans Mr. Vettel

With five races remaining in this year's Formula One season, Sebastian Vettel needs to score one more point in order to successfully defend his championship crown. That being all but certain to happen, not to mention Jenson Button also having to win each of the remaining five rounds to be able to foil Vettel, the spotlight will inevitably turn towards the battle for second place between Button, Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton. But, what if Vettel was, say, mysteriously omitted from the championship table he so deservedly heads?

All of a sudden, we would have a thrilling four-way battle for honours on our hands. If one was to simply retrospectively discount Vettel from the results of the fourteen Grand Prix we have enjoyed so far this year, Button and Webber would be in a joint championship lead, Alonso would be just two points behind in third, while Hamilton would be far from out of the running being a further nineteen points adrift in fourth. What a tantalising prospect such a scenario would be as the season reached its climax...

1. J Button            McLaren      224

= M Webber         Red Bull      224

3. F Alonso           Ferrari         222

4. L Hamilton        McLaren      203

5. F Massa            Ferrari         107

6. N Rosberg        Mercedes     82      etc.

Button would not only be co-leader of the championship, but also the man with the most wins so far in 2011. His second places at Sepang, Monza and Singapore, combined with his actual wins at Canada and Hungary, would give him a total of five victories, including three out of the last four races. His McLaren teammate Hamilton would have one less win to his name, haven taken victory at the curtain-raiser at Melbourne in addition to China, Catalunya and the Nurburgring. 

Alonso would be third in the winning stakes with triumphs at Monaco, Valencia and Silverstone, whilst just the remaining two rounds at Turkey and Spa would've been won by Webber - a rather illuminating indictment perhaps as to the gulf in performance that has emerged between the Australian and his teammate during this year. Others to benefit significantly from Vettel's absence would be Renault drivers current and former Vitaly Petrov and Nick Heidfeld, whose early third places would both have become second places; Michael Schumacher's performance in Canada would also have warranted the German's first visit to the podium in five years.

Felipe Massa meanwhile would still be languishing almost a hundred points behind Hamilton in fifth place in the standings, with Nico Rosberg just twenty-five points in arrears of the Brazilian in sixth. Schumacher, Petrov and Heidfeld would all occupy the next three slots, with Adrian Sutil, Kamui Kobayashi and Paul Di Resta rounding out the top dozen, the lattermost leading closest rival Sergio Perez in the Rookie stakes by fourteen points.

There have of course been other, equally fearsome displays of dominance throughout F1 history, so let’s take a look at how some particularly one-sided seasons may have looked when the champion is excluded from the results...

2004 sans Michael Schumacher:

1. R Barrichello     Ferrari         136

2. J Button            BAR            106

3. F Alonso           Renault        71

4. JP Montoya      Williams       67

5. J Trulli               Renault        56

6. K Raikkonen    McLaren      52

2004 was the pinnacle of Ferrari-Schumacher domination – the German driver clinched world title number seven after securing a record thirteen wins of a possible eighteen. Remove Schumacher from the equation, and Ferrari’s peerless speed and bullet-proof reliability would still have resulted in Rubens Barrichello taking a relatively comfortable title from BAR’s Jenson Button, albeit with a rather paltry nine wins. Button would have had his first win two years sooner than he did in reality at the San Marino Grand Prix before adding a second success at Hockenheim. The Brit would have thus finished second in the championship ahead of Alonso (1 win), Juan Pablo Montoya (2 wins), Jarno Trulli (1 win) and Kimi Raikkonen (2 wins).  

1992 sans Nigel Mansell:

1. R Patrese           Williams      84

2. M Schumacher   Benetton     67

3. A Senna             McLaren     61

4. G Berger            McLaren     59

5. M Brundle          Benetton     48

6. J Alesi                Ferrari        22

After several near misses, 1992 was the year where things finally went Mansell’s way. The Williams was by far the best package on the grid, a fact reflected by the team’s second driver Riccardo Patrese being on top in a protracted Mansell-free 1992 season. He would have taken seven wins on to way to championship glory; Schumacher would have taken two during his first full season of F1, the first of which would have been at Catalunya rather than Spa-Francorchamps. Ayrton Senna would have only managed third in the standings despite having taken twice as many wins as Schumacher, just two points clear of McLaren teammate Gerhard Berger who would have had three wins to his name.

1975 sans Niki Lauda:

1. E Fittipaldi        McLaren      53

2. C Reutemann    Brabham      46

3. J Hunt               Hesketh       42

4. J Mass              McLaren      32

5. C Regazzoni      Ferrari         31

6. C Pace             Brabham      27

Unlike the case for 2004 and 1992, the exclusion of title winner Lauda in 1975 would not have resulted in Ferrari teammate Clay Regazzoni being crowned champion. Instead, Brazil’s Emerson Fittipaldi would have secured his third title by a close margin from Argentine Carlos Reutemann. Interestingly, Lauda’s five wins of a possible fourteen would have been shared rather equitably: Fittipaldi would receive two to add to his existing pair, whilst Reutemann, James Hunt and Jody Scheckter would take one of the remaining three apiece. There is also an obvious beneficiary in the championship standings as the points are re-distributed in the form of Jochen Mass, who would gain three places in the standings to take fourth, surpassing Regazzoni, Carlos Pace and Scheckter.

1963 sans Jim Clark:

1. G Hill                BRM           40

2. R Ginther          BRM           37

3. D Gurney          Brabham     29

4. J Surtees            Ferrari        27

5. B McLaren        Cooper       23

6. J Brabham         Brabham     20

Without the Jim Clark hegemony of 1963, Graham Hill would have successfully defended the title that he took the previous year for BRM. This however was only made possible by the quirky points system of the time which stipulated that only a driver’s best six results over the course of the season counted for the championship (Clark in reality scored the theoretical maximum of 54). This meant that American driver Richie Ginther had to drop seven points, gifting the title to teammate Hill. Another American, Dan Gurney, would have also gained a place in the standings at the expense of Briton John Surtees. Bruce McLaren, who three years later would go on to found a rather successful team of his own, meanwhile claimed fifth place in the standings ahead of Jack Brabham, who had already become a driver-owner in 1962.

Next time out is the Japanese Grand Prix, so make sure you check back in a week's time to read about all the action as well as to discover whether Sebastian Vettel will be crowned world champion for the second time in succession.

Singapore Grand Prix 2011 - Race Report

Sebastian Vettel sailed serenely to his ninth win of the season under the night-time sky of Singapore. After converting a commanding pole position into an early lead, none of his rivals ever looked like troubling the German as he took another step towards what is now an inevitable second title. Jenson Button finished second by less than two seconds come the chequered flag thanks to a spirited late charge, but it was simply too little too late to truly threaten Vettel. Mark Webber completed the podium in third place, ahead of Fernando Alonso and an embattled Lewis Hamilton.

Red Bull continued their domination of this year’s qualifying sessions by securing the front row, Vettel three tenths faster than teammate Webber. The McLarens of Button and Hamilton occupied the second row, the latter not helped by suffering a puncture in Q2 that limited him to a single run in Q3, with the Ferraris of Alonso and Massa next in line from the Mercedes drivers Nico Rosberg and Michael Schumacher.

As the race began, Vettel made a smooth getaway which meant he lead the field as the twenty-four starters approached the first sequence of corners, but Webber was once more rather slower away. He lost places to Button and Alonso, whilst Hamilton abandoned an ambitious move up the inside of the Australian. This meant that he in turn was also passed by Massa and Rosberg, with Schumacher following suit on the initial run into turn 7; Hamilton thus found himself in a lowly eighth place at the end of the first lap. It took him just five laps to find his way back past the Mercedes twosome into sixth place, but passing former championship adversary Massa would prove more challenging.

Meanwhile, Vettel had already begun to speed away from his competitors at a rate of over a second per lap. Alonso seemed unable to either challenge Button for second or shake off Webber behind, with Massa and Hamilton also forming an orderly queue behind the Spaniard. Webber was able to take advantage of Alonso’s struggle for rear tyre grip as he forced his way past into third place at turn 15 on lap 10, Alonso pitting at the end of the lap to replace his worn super soft tyres. Massa and Hamilton did likewise one lap later, the pair emerging from the pit-lane the same order in which they entered.

Hamilton’s travails began as he attempted to execute an ill-judged pass around the outside of Massa with the help of DRS at turn 7 on lap 12. In an incident very similar to the one he experienced with Webber twelve months ago, Hamilton turned in too soon and shed half of his front wing on the rear of Massa’s car. Both men were thus forced to make an additional pit-stop, the former to replace his nose and the latter to replace a de-laminated rear-right tyre. They consequently ended up well down the field, Hamilton even more so after being given a drive-through penalty just to add insult to injury.

By the time the other leading cars had all made their first stops by the end of lap 19, the order was Vettel from Button, Alonso and Webber, the Ferrari driver having successfully ‘undercut’ the Red Bull thanks to stopping two laps sooner. Rosberg and Schumacher held fifth and sixth places briefly before having to stop again on laps 22 and 24 respectively, during which time they fell behind the Force Indias of Paul Di Resta and Adrian Sutil as well as Sauber’s Sergio Perez. Rosberg wasted little time dispatching Perez for seventh, but undid his hard work after running wide on to an ocean of marbles at the final corner a lap later. Perez slipped back past, but Rosberg wasn’t prepared to let the Mexican regain the place so easily – he immediately darted to the inside, braked late and forced Perez wide at the first corner to avoid a collision.

Schumacher was running just behind this battle, and was clearly eager to keep up with teammate Rosberg ahead. On lap 30, he attempted to overtake Perez’s Sauber up the inside at the rather unconventional location of turn 8. However, the young rookie was unsighted and took his usual line, while Schumacher out-braked himself, launching over the back of Perez’s rear wheel and hitting the barrier with considerable force. Needless to say that this incident marked the end of the road for the seven-time champion, but surprisingly Perez’s car escaped any notable damage save for a punctured tyre which he was able to have replaced without losing any positions.

This was because the ensuing Safety Car prompted everybody who hadn’t stopped in the last five or so laps to do so again whilst the pack was slowed up, including Vettel, Button, Webber, the two Force Indias and Rosberg. The Safety Car remained on track for three laps, though unfortunately for Vettel’s pursuers, several backmarkers lay between the race leader and the chasing pack. This allowed Vettel to build up his advantage over Button once more as the Safety Car retired to the pits, though Webber was now right on the tail of third-placed Alonso. Benefitting from fresher tyres, Webber was able to take back the final podium place at the notorious turn 10 on lap 34, but lacked the pace to close the gap to Button ahead.

In the meantime, a train of cars had formed from fifth-placed Di Resta all the way back to Hamilton, who had by now recovered to ninth. The former champion’s impressive comeback continued as he was able to make his way to the head of the group in the space of just five laps, but by this time he had lost considerable ground to Alonso in fourth. He would have to repeat his hard work some laps later after making his fifth and final pit-stop of the evening, as the cars he had just passed were all on two-stop strategies and were hence not counting on replacing their tyres again for the remainder of the race.

The order of the top four never particularly seemed as if would change after Webber moved into third until Button suddenly found a late turn of speed with around ten laps to go. He was able to cut the deficit to Vettel from a peak of over fifteen seconds to around half that with five laps to go and less than four seconds with three laps to go. Those who were hoping for a repeat of the final lap of the Canadian Grand Prix however would be apparently denied due to back-marking traffic that cost the McLaren driver dearly, but in reality it seemed nobody was ever truly in the position to deny Vettel a deserved nineteenth career victory.

Button’s second place and Webber’s third place marked both men’s eighth visit to the podium this year, the former moving ahead of Alonso in the championship standings after the Ferrari number one could do no more than fourth place. Hamilton lost further ground in the battle for championship runner-up by finishing behind his rivals in fifth, ahead of fellow Brit Di Resta who drove excellently to a creditable sixth place. Rosberg came home seventh in rather a weekend to forget for Mercedes, ahead of compatriot Sutil who further consolidated Force India’s sixth place in the constructors’ standings with eighth place.

Massa trailed home in ninth after an eventful afternoon, one place ahead Perez whose recent test for Ferrari as part of the team’s young driver programme has confirmed him as a possible successor of the Brazilian’s alongside Alonso at the famed Italian squad in 2013. Pastor Maldonado just missed out on a points-finish in eleventh place, with his Williams teammate Rubens Barrichello coming home thirteenth behind Toro Rosso’s Sebastien Buemi and ahead of Kamui Kobayashi in the second Sauber, who eventually wound up fourteenth after being awarded a drive-through penalty for ignoring blue flags.

In a wretched weekend for the Renault team, Bruno Senna finished a disappointing fifteenth, though this was still enough to beat more experienced teammate Vitaly Petrov who somewhat embarrassingly finished behind the Lotus of Heikki Kovalainen in seventeenth. Jerome D’Ambrosio crossed the line for Virgin in eighteenth, with the finishers being rounded off the by the Hispania duo of Daniel Ricciardo and Vitantonio Liuzzi. Joining Schumacher in the list of retirees was the other Lotus of Jarno Trulli, who succumbed to gearbox failure, while Jaime Alguersauri and Timo Glock both suffered near-identical encounters with the barriers at turn 18 that brought an abrupt end to both of their races.

Vettel is now in need of just one point to clinch the championship, with Jenson Button now the only man who can mathematically stop him. He would however have to win all five of the remaining races with Vettel failing to score a single point, making such an outcome hardly a punter’s delight – although one bookmaker is still offering odds of 569 to 1 if you’re feeling particularly optimistic. The only thing that Button, Alonso, Hamilton and Webber now have about which to be optimistic are their chances of taking second place in the championship, which should provide some useful momentum headed into 2012. It will take more than momentum if any of them are planning to prevent Vettel from taking a third consecutive title, mind.

Singapore Grand Prix 2011 – Qualifying Report

Sebastian Vettel stormed to yet another pole position in the latest dominant display by his Red Bull team around the streets of Singapore. Vettel has the opportunity to be crowned the sport’s youngest ever double champion if things go his way during tomorrow’s race, and his eleventh pole position of the season will put him in the best possible place to wrap things up. But, teammate Mark Webber as well as the hungry McLaren duo of Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton will be determined to make Vettel work for it as they line up just behind the German.

Q1

The technical nature of the Marina Bay street circuit meant that tyre suppliers Pirelli opted to bring the soft and super-soft compounds to the tiny South-East Asian city-state for the teams to make use of this weekend. The leading contenders all began the first qualifying session of the evening on the soft compound, the first of whom to set a time was none other than champion-in-waiting Vettel with a 1’47.1. Webber’s first attempt was an entire second adrift of that of his teammate, but more encouraging was Hamilton’s opening run which was a tenth of a second quicker than Vettel. The other McLaren of Button was then able to shave a few more hundredths off the benchmark, but it didn’t take too long for normal service to be resumed – Vettel’s second lap was a lightning fast 1’46.4. Fernando Alonso failed to translate his impressive practice form into qualifying form, initially at least, as his first lap was only good enough to slot himself into fourth place behind Vettel and the two McLarens. Webber’s second lap left him trailing in fifth, still the better part of a second slower than the pacesetter at the wheel of the other Red Bull, ahead of Nico Rosberg, Felipe Massa and Michael Schumacher. By way of using the super-softs, both Sergio Perez and Adrian Sutil were able to haul themselves into the top ten during the closing stages of the session, but one driver unable to make them count was Renault’s Vitaly Petrov. After the team’s planned upgrade package was canned after practice due to overheating issues, the black-and-gold cars were rather off the pace. On the soft tyres, Petrov could muster only a lowly nineteenth (putting him behind the Lotus of Heikki Kovalainen on super softs), and could only improve by two positions after equipping the options. This put teammate Bruno Senna on the brink of elimination, but the inexperienced Brazilian responded well enough to secure his place in Q2 at the expense of Petrov, who consequently slipped back into the drop zone along with the six Lotuses, Virgins and Hispanias.

Eliminated – Vitaly Petrov (Renault), Heikki Kovalainen (Lotus), Jarno Trulli (Lotus), Timo Glock (Virgin), Jerome D’Ambrosio (Virgin), Daniel Ricciardo (Hispania), Vitantonio Liuzzi (Hispania)

Q2

Lewis Hamilton was the man who set the Q2 ball rolling, but unlike his competitors he posted his first, and what would later transpire to be his only, lap time of the session using the soft tyres. He did eventually attempt to set a time on the super softs, but was prevented from completing his lap after he sustained a puncture on his right-rear tyre. Despite this mishap, he still finished the session in eighth which still allowed him to compete for pole position later on. His 1’46.8 was topped first by Webber, Button and then Vettel, who were all benefitting from the extra grip of the super softs, Vettel holding P1 with an astonishing 1’44.9 when the session was red-flagged with just over nine minutes left on the clock. This was due to Kamui Kobayashi’s Sauber clouting the barriers at the infamous double chicane of turn 10 having been airborne thanks to the Japanese hot-shoe mounting the particularly high kerbs in a rather over-enthusiastic manner. When the session resumed, everybody bar Vettel, Button, Webber and Alonso (who had set the fourth fastest time prior to the red flags) immediately made a beeline for the track, with Massa, Rosberg and Schumacher all besting Hamilton’s previous time set on softs. Behind the Briton, the battle for the final two Q3 slots boiled down to the two Force Indias of Sutil and Paul Di Resta along with the sole remaining Sauber of Perez. Ultimately, it was the Mexican that lost out by just a tenth, meaning that he would line up ahead of the two Williams drivers, as well as the young charges of Toro Rosso who qualified either side of Senna’s Renault and ahead of the stricken Kobayashi.

Eliminated – Sergio Perez (Sauber), Rubens Barrichello (Williams), Pastor Maldonado (Williams), Sebastien Buemi (Toro Rosso), Bruno Senna (Renault), Jaime Alguersauri (Toro Rosso), Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber)

Q3

Usually, Q3 is a tale of two halves, with the established top six runners going for two runs, and the remaining drivers choosing to preserve tyres by making just one. While the established top six runners did go out on their customary first laps at the very start of the session, no less than three of the other four decided that setting a time in Q3 simply wasn’t worth the bother. Thus, Rosberg cruised to an easy P7 on the grid, whilst Schumacher, Sutil and Di Resta all lined up in numerical order in eighth, ninth and tenth (which, incidentally, was the order in which they would have probably qualified anyway). Hamilton too did only one run, albeit at the start of the session, as the team wanted to claw back the set of tyres lost through the earlier puncture. This one lap was compromised by Hamilton trying to pass Massa, who was running ahead, in the final few corners of his out-lap; this impatience cost the McLaren driver momentum which would ultimately limit him to fourth on the grid. This would be enough to trump both Ferraris, Massa looking particularly lacklustre after qualifying almost a full second shy of fifth-placed Alonso. In the race for pole position, Button began promisingly enough after matching Vettel’s excellent Q2 time on his first run, but this perhaps unsurprisingly wouldn’t be enough to deny Vettel. The reigning champion was in no mood to relinquish the Red Bull stranglehold on pole positions in 2011, lucidly demonstrated by a barnstorming lap time of 1’44.4, an entire second clear of Webber’s disappointing first outing. The Australian’s second crack of the whip was however seven-tenths faster which was sufficient to overhaul Button to reach the front row – the Brit could only improve by one tenth at his second attempt, meaning that Vettel could afford to abandon his second lap safe in the knowledge that a twenty-sixth career pole was his.

Top Ten – Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull), Mark Webber (Red Bull), Jenson Button (McLaren), Lewis Hamilton (McLaren), Fernando Alonso (Ferrari), Felipe Massa (Ferrari), Nico Rosberg (Mercedes), Michael Schumacher (Mercedes), Adrian Sutil (Force India), Paul Di Resta (Force India)

My Prediction

Weather is yet to be a factor at Singapore, but with the race being nearly two hours long, tyre degradation certain will be. That said, it will take some rather more unpredictable variables to derail Vettel’s bid to take a ninth victory of the season:

1. Vettel, 2. Button, 3. Alonso, 4. Webber, 5. Massa, 6. Schumacher, 7. Rosberg, 8. Perez, 9. Sutil, 10. Di Resta

Button’s hitherto impressive race pace will see him take second place behind the all-conquering Vettel, ahead of Alonso whose often-improved race pace combined with Ferrari’s superior tyre preservation will just about get the nod over Webber, whose speed has recently been below par on Sundays. McLaren team principal Martin Whitmarsh’s recent call to arms for more aggression on the part of Hamilton will inevitably end in disaster, leaving Massa to take an uneventful fifth ahead of the Mercedes pair, Schumacher again getting the better of Rosberg. Perez will get by on just two pit-stops which will allow him to overhaul both Force India men who will sew up the final points positions finishing in the order in which they began.

However, the nature of the Singapore street circuit lends itself to an elevated degree of unpredictability as the safety car is an ever-present possibility – a Monza-esque cruise to victory for Vettel is far from guaranteed. Whatever happens, don’t forget to report back here tomorrow evening to read all about the night-time action.