Belgian Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

The Formula One fraternity’s summer break of five weeks is almost at an end, with races lined up for this weekend and the next at two classic, high-speed circuits that mark the conclusion of this season’s European leg.

The first of these is the legendary Spa-Francorchamps circuit. Nestled deep in the Belgian Ardennes Forest, this hallowed (albeit shortened) 4.3 mile strip of tarmac has provided us with some truly memorable moments in recent history – think Damon Hill taking Jordan’s maiden victory in torrential conditions in 1998, Mika Hakkinen’s masterful pass on Michael Schumacher at Les Combes in 2000, and Giancarlo Fisichella’s rather unexpected pole position for Force India three years ago.

The track itself is literally dripping with some of the finest corners on the F1 calendar – Les Combes, Pouhon, Stavelot, Blanchimont, and, of course, the fearsome Eau Rouge. The fast, flowing nature of the Spa track makes it one of the best circuits for overtaking on the calendar, and more importantly it means that the driver is able to make more of a difference here than at most tracks. Combined with an infamously unpredictable weather system and one of the closest F1 seasons in history, all the ingredients for a truly classic race are here.

Small wonder then, that Spa is often cited as a favourite among drivers and fans alike, who will no doubt be relieved to hear that the Walloon government has struck a deal for the track to remain on the calendar until at least 2015. The frankly unnecessary DRS zone will be, as per last year, located along the Kemmel Straight between Eau Rouge and Les Combes, whilst the tyre compounds on offer will be the hard and the medium.

If one man has made Spa his own in recent years, it’s Kimi Raikkonen. The Finn has triumphed four times here in the past, for both McLaren and Ferrari, and on the evidence of his performance at Hungary, there’s a distinct possibility of a fifth Belgian Grand Prix win this weekend. However, the most obvious potential sticking point is the weather – all of Raikkonen’s podiums so far this year have come in relatively warm conditions, with his best performances (Hungary and Bahrain) coming in particularly searing heat.

With Spa being renowned for being cool and occasionally wet, it is unclear how the Lotus will perform. Raikkonen, along with teammate Romain Grosjean, should nonetheless be in the running, but it’s unlikely that the Enstone-built cars will prove to be the strongest package. Whether Raikkonen’s affinity with the track will allow him to overcome that fact remains to be seen.

The McLaren is likely to be right in the hunt, as it has been in both warm and cool conditions this year. Lewis Hamilton has a single win to his name at Spa, which he secured two years ago, and clinching another this weekend would serve to put the Brit back in the thick of the title battle. A victory would furthermore help dispel sour memories of last year’s race, where Hamilton was the subject of much criticism after clumsily colliding with a lapped Kamui Kobayashi and subsequently finding himself in the barriers.

Teammate Jenson Button will likewise be eager to get himself back on the top step of the podium for the first time since Melbourne at a circuit at which he’s never won. With nine races to go, he seems unwilling to get behind Hamilton’s title bid just yet, despite himself being no fewer than 88 points in arrears of championship leader Fernando Alonso.

Alonso would probably be glad to see the Belgian weather gods do their worst, having bagged two pole positions in wet conditions in the last three events. Though Hungary suggests that the Ferrari is now not as quick as the Lotus, McLaren or the Red Bull, Spa could scarcely be more different, with regards to both the track layout and the likely weather conditions. Like Button, Alonso has never tasted victory at Spa, a statistic he has every chance of putting right this weekend.

Ferrari have won three of the last five races at the circuit, one of which came courtesy of Felipe Massa in somewhat controversial style – he finished second on the road behind Hamilton, who was later penalised for being deemed to have overtaken Raikkonen illegally. Massa has nine races left this year to prove he deserves to keep his Ferrari seat, with Heikki Kovalainen, Sergio Perez, Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg all among the potential replacements. His goal this weekend has to be to finish as close to Alonso as possible and deprive several of his title rivals precious points.

Sebastian Vettel was the man who was victorious at Spa last year, and will be hungry to add to the single win he has claimed so far this year at Bahrain. He has appeared to re-establish the upper hand over teammate Mark Webber during the last two races, and continuing to do so will be imperative to his title aspirations. Webber meanwhile needs to rediscover the spark he had at Silverstone to ensure his own challenge doesn’t stall; he can’t really afford to be languishing behind Vettel by more than a handful of points as the championship reaches its climax.

The Spa circuit should, at least on paper, be kind to Mercedes, whose double-DRS system will make it one of the most formidable machines down the long Kemmel Straight. Michael Schumacher will be aiming high on his 300^th Grand Prix outing at the track where he debuted back in 1991; with six Belgian Grand Prix wins to his credit, the German could be the surprise package of the weekend. Teammate Nico Rosberg will be hoping the double-DRS helps reverse his fortunes, having taken just two points in the last three races to Schumacher’s twelve.

Cool conditions tend to favour Sauber, so expect Perez and Kobayashi to make some serious inroads in the top ten as the race progresses. Pastor Maldonado meanwhile needs to get himself back on the scoreboard for the first time since his Barcelona win, having been out-raced by fellow Williams driver Bruno Senna at Hungary for the first time since the early-season flyaways. Force India could do with some extra speed to be in contention for points, whilst Toro Rosso have switched their focus to next season already after nine straight points-free weekends.

Qualifying Prediction:

1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Rosberg, 4. Alonso, 5. Grosjean, 6. Raikkonen 7. Schumacher, 8. Webber, 9. Button, 10. Maldonado

Race Prediction

1. Alonso, 2. Hamilton, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Vettel, 5. Grosjean, 6. Rosberg, 7. Webber, 8. Perez, 9. Schumacher, 10. Kobayashi

Although Hamilton will have the one-lap pace to take pole position, the cool and possibly wet conditions make Alonso a safer bet for the win. Raikkonen will have to hang on somewhat for his first post-comeback victory, just coming out on top in a fierce battle with Vettel. Rosberg will slip somewhat from his lofty grid position without the help of double-DRS in the race, coming home behind Grosjean who stands to complete his first race lap around the Spa circuit (remember his collision with Button on lap one in 2009?).  Webber will endure a somewhat disappointing weekend, as will Button, who will fail to score with the cool track preventing him from warming his tyres effectively. Perez and Kobayashi will both break into the top ten either side of Schumacher with the Sauber showing strongly.

Ones to Watch 2012

In this post, allow me to introduce you to another group of young drivers who could be making their way to Formula One in the next few years.

Robin Frijns (21, Netherlands)

With ambitions of being the first Dutch driver in F1 since Christijan Albers in 2007, Frijns enjoyed early success in Formula BMW Europe and the Formula Renault 2.0 Eurocup before graduating to the Formula Renault 3.5 (aka World Series by Renault) championship for this year with the Fortec team. In spite of his relative inexperience, Frijns has made himself a surprise title favourite at the half-way mark of the championship following wins at Aragon and Moscow. Should he hang on to win the title, which would involve holding off stiff opposition from the likes of Sam Bird, Jules Bianchi and others, a third driver role with a midfield F1 team would appear the next logical option with a potential graduation to a race seat in 2014. If he doesn’t, then another season of racing either in World Series or GP2 will probably beckon before an F1 race seat comes his direction.

Antonio Felix da Costa (20, Portugal)

Da Costa is another driver to have made his name in Formula Renault 2.0, and following a solid season in the Formula Three Euroseries secured a full-time GP3 seat for 2011. He may only have come thirteenth in the championship that year with a sole win to his name, but he jumped ship to Carlin for this season and has proved one of the men to beat – da Costa would have likely won the first race of the season if not for a jump start, but made up for this mishap by winning at Silverstone in the damp and then twice in changing conditions at Hungary in spite of a reverse grid second race. It’s this kind of form that has led him to sign with the Red Bull Junior Team this year, and a full assault on Formula Renault 3.5 next year could potentially lead to some seat time with the Toro Rosso F1 team if he keeps up his current form.

Mitch Evans (18, New Zealand)

Perhaps the most promising Antipodean F1 prospect since his mentor Mark Webber, Evans gained recognition in his native New Zealand by taking titles in both Formula Ford and the Toyota Racing Series before moving to Europe. Joining the well-established Arden team, he made an immediate impact in the GP3 Series in 2011, winning the feature race at Barcelona early in the year and finding himself atop the standings after three rounds. Although he was unable to maintain this level of performance for the remainder of the season, Evans began 2012 as title favourite in GP3, and has lived up to such a reputation - with three more wins to his name so far this year, he leads the title chase with just two rounds to go. A graduation to either GP2 or Formula Renault 3.5 seems likely for next year, and Webber will no doubt be lobbying numerous F1 teams for some seat time for his protégé this winter and next year.

Carlos Sainz Jr. (17, Spain)

Son of the legendary two-time World Rally champion, Carlos Sainz Jr. not only bears an uncanny likeness to his father in the looks department but on the track as well. He got himself noticed last season by finishing runner-up to Frijns in the Formula Renault 2.0 Eurocup, and with the help of his Red Bull backing has embarked on a twin assault of both the British and Euroseries Formula Three championships for this year with the renowned Carlin squad. The Spaniard has established himself as something of a wet-weather ace in the British category, having taken all four of his wins so far in rainy conditions. Although a spate of non-scores in the middle of the season has ruled him out of championship contention, Sainz Jr. has shown enough promise to warrant Red Bull placing him in a higher category for next year, with some outings in Toro Rosso machinery far from out of the question.

Felix Serralles (20, Puerto Rico)

With a real chance of becoming F1’s first representative from Puerto Rico, Serralles first cut his teeth in the US-based Skip Barber National series before moving to Europe to compete in Formula Renault 2.0 last season for the Fortec team. Despite finishing only placing 12^th in the Eurocup championship, the team were sufficiently impressed with Serralles to offer him a seat in British Formula Three for 2012. Against all expectations, with two rounds to go the Puerto Rican is firmly in the title hunt with three wins to his name, and will vie for glory with the more experienced Carlin drivers Jack Harvey and Jazeman Jaafar. Like Frijns, Serralles is not currently affiliated with a F1 team, but his F3 performances cannot have gone unnoticed. In the meantime, GP3, GP2 and Formula Renault 3.5 are all viable options for the Fortec driver next year whether or not he wins the British F3 title.

Raffaele Marciello (17, Italy)

Snapped up by Ferrari after just a single season of car racing, Marciello could transpire to become Italy’s next big F1 star. Coming third in the Formula Abarth series at the age of just 15 was what brought him to the attention of Ferrari, who hastily signed the young Italo-Swiss for their Young Driver Academy. After placing third in Italian Formula Three with Prema Powerteam last year, Marciello graduated to the Euroseries, and has taken no fewer than five wins, not to mention an extra two at the non-scoring Pau event, in a mightily impressive maiden campaign. Being so young, Marciello has time on his side, and may benefit from an extra season at F3 level before he makes the inevitable step up to Formula Renault 3.5 or GP2. Should he continue his remarkable rate of development, some testing with Ferrari and an F1 race seat could all loom on the horizon two or three years from now.

CLASS OF 2011

Of the seven young talents I identified in last year’s ‘Ones to Watch’ post, two are now in F1 – Charles Pic and Jean-Eric Vergne. After two years of success in GP2, Jules Bianchi has switched his attention to Formula Renault 3.5, in which he currently lies third behind Frijns and fellow GP2 convert Sam Bird, in conjunction with some Friday running for Force India. Whether this will lead to a race seat with the Silverstone-based team for next year is unclear, although Sauber is another potential destination for the Frenchman. Alexander Rossi is also currently driving in the World Series, although he languishes in the points largely due to the inexperience of his Caterham team. Like Bianchi, the American has done Friday running with the team and has a chance of a promotion to a race drive if Heikki Kovalainen leaves. McLaren junior driver Kevin Magnussen is also running in the same series as Rossi and Bianchi, and has impressed with his speed even if some bad luck has left him out of the title running. The Dane however will need more experience in the category before an F1 seat becomes a possibility. The two remaining drivers – Felipe Nasr and Esteban Gutierrez – are currently running in GP2. The former drives for DAMS and is ninth in the standings, whilst the latter is in his second season in the series with the crack Lotus-backed ART and sits third in the championship behind veterans Luiz Razia and Davide Valsecchi. Nasr looks set to have to do another year in GP2 before any F1 teams come knocking, but Gutierrez could be in with a shout of a Sauber seat next year if countryman Sergio Perez departs for Ferrari.

The Greatest Non-Champions

The history of Formula One is littered with drivers who, for one reason or another, were supremely talented but nonetheless failed to secure a world championship. For some, the right opportunities simply didn’t come their way; for others, their careers were curtailed by injury or even death before they had a chance to fulfil their talents; for others, it was a case of simple bad luck.

In this post, I’m going to rate the top five drivers in what I consider to be two highly distinct categories of non-champions – those that enjoyed a full career, and left the sport through choice, and those whose injuries or fatalities cut their career short.

So, here we go, beginning with the former category:

5. Jacky Ickx (B, 1966-79, 8 wins)

Although more famous for his exploits in endurance racing, motor racing fans sometimes have a habit of forgetting what a formidable F1 driver Ickx was during the late 60s and early 70s. His first full season came with Ferrari in 1968, where he showed well against more experienced teammate Chris Amon. He secured a (admittedly distant) runner-up position in the championship to Jackie Stewart whilst driving for Brabham the following season, and a return to Ferrari in 1970 yielded more success: after Jochen Rindt’s fatal accident at Monza that season, Ickx came within five points of denying the Austrian a posthumous title, a feat he may have achieved if not for a mechanical failure whilst vying for the lead at the same race. That season proved to be the zenith of his single-sater career, taking just two more wins for Ferrari before establishing himself as an endurance racing powerhouse.

4. Gerhard Berger (A, 1984-97, 10 wins)

One of the best-loved figures in the paddock and a member of the exclusive ‘200 starts’ club, Berger was able to compete with the best of them on his day. He is perhaps best remembered for being Ayrton Senna’s wingman during their years as McLaren teammates, and although he was usually outclassed by the Brazilian, he was still able to register three wins and four pole positions during his tenure at the Woking outfit. Prior to that, he took the Benetton team’s first ever Grand Prix win in 1986, and was able to firmly establish the upper hand over Ferrari teammate Michele Alboreto over the course of the next two seasons. After his foray into McLaren, he often outperformed the highly-rated Jean Alesi during their time as teammates at Ferrari and Benetton, taking two memorable wins at Hockenheim in 1994 and 1997 – the latter of which he achieved in spite of the recent death of his father.

3. Dan Gurney (US, 1959-70, 4 wins)

Often hailed as the only driver that Jim Clark truly feared, Gurney was perhaps the most dangerous of the breed of US drivers that surfaced in the sport in the early 60s despite never finishing in the top three of the championship. His breakthrough came in 1961 when he was selected to drive for the new works Porsche team, and he was close to securing the marque’s first win at Reims before sealing the deal the following year at Rouen. Porsche’s subsequent withdrawal from the sport saw Gurney defect to Brabham, and the American secured that team’s first win too in 1964, again at Rouen. Two years later, Gurney founded his own team – Anglo-American Racers – and took the breathtaking Eagle chassis to a famous victory at Spa in 1967. Perhaps his biggest contribution to the sport however was, upon his Le Mans victory the same year, establishing the now-ubiquitous ritual of spraying champagne on the podium.

2. Carlos Reutemann (RA, 1972-82, 12 wins)

One of the sport’s leading lights of the 70s and early 80s, Reutemann’s failure to win the F1 title remains a great mystery of the sport. The Argentine made his title credentials immediately obvious by taking pole position in front of his home crowd at Buenos Aires on his debut for Brabham in 1972, although it would be another two years before he took his first win at Kyalami. Further victories for Brabham and Ferrari followed, but it was his stint with Williams for which Reutemann is best remembered. His relationship with teammate Alan Jones broke down in 1981 when Reutemann disobeyed team orders at Brazil to win from Jones, who therefore refused to support his teammate’s title tilt at the season finale in Vegas. Starting from pole, Reutemann inexplicably had a terrible race, finishing a lap down and thus losing the title to Nelson Piquet by a single point whilst Jones won the race. Reutemann quit the sport just two races into the 1982 season following a dispute with Frank Williams.

1. Stirling Moss (GB, 1951-61, 16 wins)

Moss is living proof that you don’t necessarily need to have a world championship to your name to be considered the greatest of your era. This was a mantle bestowed upon him after the retirement of Juan Manuel Fangio, having already established himself as the biggest threat to ‘El Maestro’. Driving for Vanwall, with whom he had won three races the previous year, Moss duly won a further four races in 1958 but nonetheless conceded the title to Mike Hawthorn, in part due to his sportsmanlike defence of a rules trangression at Porto on the part of the Ferrari driver. That would be the last time Moss would find himself in championship contention, but he still scored a number of memorable victories thereafter for the privateer Rob Walker concern, the last of which came at the Nurburgring in 1961 before a testing crash brought a temporary halt to a glittering, multi-discipline career that officially lasted all the way until last year.

Other drivers I considered in this category included Riccardo Patrese, Jean Alesi, David Coulthard, Rubens Barrichello, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Brooks, Jose Froilan Gonzalez and Michele Alboreto.

Without further ado, let’s move on to the category for those whose careers were tragically cut short:

5. Stefan Bellof (D, 1984-85, 0 wins)

He may have started just 20 Grand Prix, but the speed and flair he showed in them prior to his death in a sports car race at Spa in 1985 suggests that Bellof would have been Germany’s first world champion had he lived. The 1984 Monaco Grand Prix is best remembered for a then-rookie  Ayrton Senna’s rapid pursuit of Alain Prost in torrential conditions, but it’s all too easy to overlook the fact that Bellof was quickly catching both as the red flags were shown. Although that particular result along with numerous other points finishes were removed from the record books after his Tyrrell team was disqualifed from the entire 1984 season for using lead ballast in their fuel,  the talent he had demonstrated that year as well as in 1985, most notably at Detroit, attracted an offer from Ferrari for the 1986 season. Had this move come off, who knows what Bellof may have achieved during the remainder of his career?

4. Didier Pironi (F, 1978-82, 3 wins)

Whilst Gilles Villeneuve is understandably billed as the man who should have won the 1982 championship, his Ferrari teammate Pironi is the man who would have won that year’s title if not for a career-ending incident at Hockenheim. The Frenchman showed sufficient promise in two seasons with Tyrrell, which included two podium finishes, for Guy Ligier to sign him for the 1980 season; Pironi took his maiden win that year at Spa in commanding fashion, prompting Ferrari to snap him up for 1981. After playing a suborbinate role to Villeneuve that year, the Canadian was furious with Pironi at Imola in 1982 when, in a race that was handed to Ferrari thanks to a FOCA boycott and Renault unreliability, the latter broke what Villeneuve perceived to be team instructions to hold position. Pironi became title favourite after his teammate’s untimely death two weeks later at Zolder, and surely would have beaten Alain Prost to the mantle of France’s first F1 champion before fate intervened at Hockenheim.

3. François Cevert (F, 1970-73, 1 win)

Remembered primarily as Jackie Stewart’s protégé during his championship years at Tyrrell, Cevert was ready to inherit the position of team leader from the outgoing Stewart before he was sadly killed during practice for the final race of 1973 at Watkins Glen. The Scot recommended that Ken Tyrrell select Cevert to replace the retiring Johnny Servoz-Gavin in 1970 on the strength of his performances in F2, and under the tutelage of Stewart his performances seemingly began to improve by the race to the point where he was every bit as quick as his teacher. In spite of this, Cevert remained an obedient number two to Stewart right until the Scot decided to retire at the end of 1973. Alas, the talented Frenchman’s unfortunate passing, which incidentally occured at the circuit where he took his only Grand Prix win in 1971, surely robbed the sport of a future champion.

2. Ronnie Peterson (S, 1970-1978, 10 wins)

Peterson’s incredible swashbuckling style behind the wheel made the ‘Super Swede’ a joy to watch - his disregard for mechanical sympathy arguably cost him the chance to win a championship, but his fans probably remember him all the more fondly for that fact. He first rose to prominence driving for March, with whom he claimed the runner-up spot in the championship in 1971, in only his second full season. However, Peterson wouldn’t win a race until switching to Lotus machinery in 1973, but poor reliability cost him a title chance both that year and the next. A return to March and a season with Tyrrell failed to bear fruit, leading to a return to Lotus alongside Mario Andretti in 1978. He won two races despite his number two status, and had been offered a McLaren drive for the following year before he was killed in a multi-car pile-up at the very start of that year’s Italian Grand Prix at Monza.

1. Gilles Villeneuve (CDN, 1977-82, 6 wins)

You wouldn’t know it from a simple glance at the record books, but Villeneuve Sr. is held in similar esteem to many of the more ‘obvious’ all-time greats of the sport. Though he didn’t have a full career in which to demonstrate his greatness, his absolutely scinitillating ability combined with Ferrari’s competitiveness in 1982 makes it more than likely he would have set the record straight that season if not for his fatal accident in qualifying at Zolder, which many put down to his agitation at teammate Pironi’s actions at the previous race at Imola (see above). He may also have won the title in 1979 for the Italian team, often showing greater speed than more experienced teammate Jody Scheckter, but opted to play a support role to the South African, who declared the Canadian ‘the fastest driver in the history of motor racing’ after his death. Had Villeneuve enjoyed a full innings, the statistics may well have borne that particular assertion out.

Other drivers I considered in this category included Peter Collins, Wolfgang von Trips, Clay Regazzoni, Elio de Angelis, Jean Behra, Carlos Pace, The Rodriguez Brothers and Lorenzo Bandini.