For me, the last two Formula One Grands Prix at Korea and Japan have been especially notable - not for the continued dominance of Sebastian Vettel, who is firmly on course to wrap up the title next weekend at India, but for the clearest indications yet of a new generation of talent emerging.
Two drivers in particular have stood out during these races - Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg. The former, as I have written for The Sideline Agenda, has truly matured into a potential future champion since he looked like challenging for victory back at the German Grand Prix, and his back-to-back third places seem scant reward for two virtually faultless weekends in Korea and Japan.
Hulkenberg, meanwhile, has taken full advantage of Sauber's recent upswing in competitiveness. After registering a brilliant fourth place at Yeongam, frustrating Lewis Hamilton for much of the latter half of the race, another superb drive by the German at Suzuka saw him run in fourth for a significant proportion of the distance before being demoted to sixth by Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen in the closing stages.
Now that an investment deal between Lotus and investment consortium Quantum Motorsports (née Infinity Racing) is close to being finalised, it appears that Grosjean and Hulkenberg will line up as teammates at the Enstone-based outfit next year.
Assuming Lotus can remain competitive as the sport makes its transition to next year's radically revised regulations, it follows that the pair stand a solid chance of breaking their respective victory ducks. And, if they succeed in doing that, it could be the springboard to some form of championship challenge - whether that's with Lotus or another top team.
Another driver this applies to is Daniel Ricciardo, who will be deservedly making his debut for the current dominant force of the grid, Red Bull, in 2014 after a two-season apprenticeship with Toro Rosso. He won't be challenging the supremacy of teammate Vettel immediately, but he too has shown his Grand Prix winning potential and ought to be contending for titles before too long.
Thus, with Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, we have the makings of a 'post-Vettel' generation of drivers. The last time this process took place was around five years ago, when the younger of the sport's two established generations was formed.
Hamilton was the first to confirm his membership of this club, bursting on to the scene with McLaren in 2007 and very nearly winning the title at the first time of asking. Vettel and Nico Rosberg joined the Brit, impressing with lower teams in their first couple of seasons and being promoted to top teams in 2009 and 2010 respectively, but others struggled to make their mark.
It appeared that Heikki Kovalainen was also destined to be part of this grouping, having landed a prized McLaren seat in 2008, but his so-so performances during his two year stint at Woking were to curtail such ambitions. Now the Finn isn't so much as on the grid this season following three torrid, pointless seasons at Team Lotus/Caterham.
Others who emerged on the scene around this time but failed to last include Timo Glock, who already looked to be on his way out of Toyota even before the Japanese marque pulled the plug, Vitantonio Liuzzi, who failed to establish himself either at Toro Rosso or Force India, Kazuki Nakajima, who was shown up by Rosberg during his two-year stint at Williams, and Nelson Piquet Jr., whose had already been ditched by Renault before his reputation was dealt irreparable damage by the exposure of the Crashgate affair.
The plight of some of the above drivers is indicative of how a driver regarded as a promising talent can quickly find themselves out of favour if the results dry up. Admittedly, sponsorship dollars can play a pivotal role in this process, but Hulkenberg shows it's possible to get by without substantial funding if you're considered exceptional.
Of the 20 drivers present on the F1 grid five years ago, just nine are still around today; by that logic, no more than 10 or 11 of today's 22-strong field will remain on the grid five years from now. Whilst the likes of Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen - today's elder generation - will all have likely retired by this stage, that still means the majority of the youngsters will miss out.
It's probably safe to say that Vettel, as well as Mercedes duo Rosberg and Hamilton, will all still be around in five years' time. If we also include Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, that leaves a maximum of four or five spaces for the remainder of the field to cement their place as part of this upcoming generation and avoid falling by the wayside.
Sergio Perez is a good example of a driver whose career, at this stage, could go either way. His first season at McLaren hasn't been bad at all - whilst there have been perhaps a couple more mistakes than the Mexican may have liked, including his self-inflicted puncture at Suzuka, his race pace has been a match for teammate Button at nearly every race. Yet, McLaren have been rather hesitant to confirm Perez for next season.
It nevertheless seems likely Perez will be handed another season at McLaren, if only for a lack of alternatives now Hulkenberg appears Lotus-bound, but he'd certainly have to begin beating Button (who, let's face it, is unlikely to ever win another title) on a regular basis in order to guarantee his future.
Were he to do so, Perez would probably be lauded as a future champion. Were he to endure another campaign as inconsistent as this one, he would probably be dropped from the team, and after that it would be no easy job rebuilding his career - as Kovalainen can attest.
Paul Di Resta is another driver whose form this year has been erratic. Despite some strong early performances, most notably at Bahrain, before the Force India was hobbled by Pirelli's mid-season tyre revision, the Scot's case for remaining on board for 2014 has not been helped by a run of three straight retirements caused by driver error from Monza to Korea.
That said, it's far from too late to make amends for these errors, and, as is the case for Perez, a successful season next year could launch Di Resta's career into the stratosphere. On the other hand, a repeat of 2013 probably wouldn't be enough to guarantee his F1 future, especially as he lacks any significant financial backing.
Others for whom the jury is still out include Pastor Maldonado, who has suffered a dismal year with Williams after his breakthrough victory in Spain last year, and Jean-Eric Vergne, who has failed to score a point since his impressive drive to sixth place at Canada four months ago. Both could either sink or swim next year, which, much like Perez and Di Resta, could set the tone for the rest of their careers.
Will all four of these drivers still be around in 2018? It's doubtful, especially when they will be competing against such burgeoning talents as Valtteri Bottas, Jules Bianchi, Kevin Magnussen and Antonio Felix da Costa for precious seats. And, if the field is slimmed down to 20 cars in the next couple of years, as some expect it to, the pressure will further intensify to be not be left standing when the music stops.
Some sparkling performances this year mean that Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo looked to have set themselves up for long, successful F1 careers. Now, the fight is well and truly on for the rest of the sport's up-and-coming drivers to do likewise and not be consigned to the scrapheap of talent.
20 October 2013
14 October 2013
Japanese Grand Prix 2013 - Report
Yesterday's Japanese Grand Prix was perhaps the best demonstration we've seen this year of precisely why Sebastian Vettel is firmly on course for a fourth successive Formula One title.
The difference between the champion-elect's run of victories from Spa to Korea and his latest victory at the Suzuka circuit is that, on this occasion, instead of leading the way from the beginning, Vettel was forced to come from behind in order to snatch the silverware.
Almost from the outset, the race was a three-horse race between Vettel, his Red Bull teammate Mark Webber, the Australian taking pole position on his final trip to Suzuka as an F1 driver (aided by KERS problems for Vettel, it should be added), and Romain Grosjean, who, from fourth on the grid, jumped the pair of them heading into the first corner.
The second half of this season has seen Grosjean emerge as a credible candidate to lead the Lotus team into its post-Raikkonen era, and as the Frenchman seized the lead at the first corner, it seemed Grosjean could well be headed for the first win for a Frenchman in F1 since Olivier Panis stood atop the Monaco podium in 1996.
Another driver to make a good start was Lewis Hamilton, who started third. But, the Brit's race was to prove an exceptionally brief one - his Mercedes suffered an instantaneous puncture as his right-rear wheel made contact with the end-plate of Vettel's front wing as Hamilton tried to sweep across the reigning champion's bows.
Hamilton managed to coax his car back to the pit-lane, but the damage done to the floor and rear suspension in the process was sufficient to warrant his retirement a few laps later. Interestingly, had Hamilton successfully demoted Vettel to fourth place, it could have totally changed the complexion of the race.
As it was however, Vettel clung on to third place behind Grosjean and Webber, with Nico Rosberg running fourth in the sole remaining Mercedes ahead of Felipe Massa, Fernando Alonso and an ever-impressive Nico Hulkenberg.
Such was the pace advantage of the Red Bulls and Lotuses - something Mercedes believes is in large part thanks to clever engine mapping by Renault - that Grosjean, Webber and Vettel were able to escape the following pack at a rate of around a second per lap, Rosberg 10 seconds down on Vettel after as many laps.
The leading trio on the other hand were separated by little more than four seconds by the time Webber made his first pit-stop at the end of lap 11, swapping his options for a fresh set of primes. Grosjean followed suit the following lap, but crucially Vettel was able to stretch his opening stint to 14 laps before pitting.
Though Vettel resumed in third place behind Grosjean and Webber, the fact he had nursed his rubber more effectively up to this stage laid a rock-solid foundation on which he would build his ultimately irresistible challenge for victory.
Conversely, Webber was struggling with tyre wear, and as such was forced to switch to a theoretically slower three-stop strategy. There have been some who suggested after the race that this decision was a deliberate act of conspiracy on the part of Red Bull, but, with Vettel already so close to the title, what would the team have gained in hobbling Webber's bid for a first win of the season?
Webber made his second trip to the pits on lap 25, and it was at this stage that Lotus arguably sacrificed any slim chance Grosjean had of taking his first win. The Enstone team seemed not to realise that they were in fact racing Vettel, rather than Webber, for victory, and as such brought in Grosjean on lap 29 - far too early to give their driver any chance of holding off Vettel in the final stint.
Aided by his longer first stint, Vettel was able to go all the way until lap 37 before his second stop, after which he re-joined the track right behind Grosjean. With the black-and-gold machine's tyres already eight laps old by this stage, it took just three laps for Vettel to close down the two second advantage of Grosjean.
The inevitable pass for second place - Webber having re-taken the lead after Grosjean and Vettel's respective second stops - came at the first corner on lap 41, the Frenchman simply unable to respond to his rival's superior pace with his more used rubber.
One lap later, Webber came in for his third stop, and within a matter of laps was sat right on Grosjean's gearbox. An issue with his DRS prevented him from clearing Grosjean anywhere near as quickly as Vettel could, having to wait all the way until the first corner of the penultimate lap to do so. By this stage, Vettel had established an unassailable lead of nine seconds.
This meant there was no stopping Vettel taking a ninth win of the season - the 35th of his astonishing career - and extending his championship lead to a mammoth 90 points. With 100 now left to play for, the odds strongly favour Vettel sealing his fourth straight title crown in two weeks time at India - he needs just a fifth place finish, regardless of what any other driver achieves.
Behind Webber and Grosjean, Alonso made his way up to fourth place to keep himself in mathematical (if not actual) title contention. This involved a customary good start from a poor grid slot of eighth, followed by passes on teammate Massa during the second stint and Hulkenberg, who had jumped ahead in the first round of pit-stops, in the closing stages.
Hulkenberg was also demoted by Raikkonen with two laps to go, the Finn's race following a broadly similar trajectory to that of Alonso after starting one place behind the Ferrari driver on the grid. Sixth place for Hulkenberg marks the fourth top ten result in a row for the Sauber driver, who, if the paddock rumours are to be believed, has now signed a deal to join Lotus next season.
Coming home seventh was Esteban Gutierrez, who made a great start to climb immediately up to ninth and thereafter put in an assured performance behind the wheel of the second Sauber. It has taken a while for the Mexican to find his feet in F1, but since the summer break, Gutierrez has shown a marked upturn in form. Whether this will be enough to keep him in his seat for next season is an entirely different matter, however.
Having run in fourth early on, Rosberg ended up in eighth place after a drive-through penalty picked up at the first round of pit-stops as his Mercedes pit-crew released him into the path of Sergio Perez's McLaren. Rosberg was able to claw back some ground thereafter, but was unable to find a way by Gutierrez, behind whom he was stuck for the last half a dozen laps.
Another driver to pick up a drive-through penalty, albeit for pit-lane speeding, was Massa, who was forced to be content with a solitary point for tenth place; one position ahead of the Brazilian was McLaren's Jenson Button, who endured a fairly anonymous race en route to ninth.
Button's teammate Perez on the other hand had a far more eventful afternoon. Having run a creditable eighth early on, he lost time in the pits as a result of the near miss with Rosberg before becoming embroiled in an on-track skirmish with the German. Perez sustained a puncture in a clumsy attempt to defend his position from Rosberg at the Casio Triangle, dropping him to 15th at the chequered flag.
Eleventh place fell to Paul Di Resta in another tough race for Force India, who will now be looking over their shoulder at Sauber in the constructors' standings. Adrian Sutil meanwhile had to start from the very back of the grid following a penalty for a gearbox change, making his way up to 14th place by the finish.
Separating the two Force Indias were the Toro Rosso pair, Jean-Eric Vergne leading Daniel Ricciardo on this occasion. The latter started the race on the hard compound tyre, running as high as fourth before his first stop - holding up a pack of faster cars in the process. Any chance of Ricciardo scoring points nonetheless was blown out the water when he picked up a drive-through penalty for passing Di Resta by leaving the circuit.
Pastor Maldonado finished 16th, one place behind Perez, after a fairly brutal move on Williams teammate Valtteri Bottas at the Casio Triangle on the very last lap of the race. Rounding out the finishers were Charles Pic and Max Chilton, their respective teammates Giedo van der Garde and Jules Bianchi becoming early casualties after tangling at the very first corner of the race.
It's one thing to start a race from pole and simply sprint away into the distance, but it's quite another to have to read a race to perfection in order to come from behind and grab the upper hand over your competitors, which is precisely what Vettel did at Suzuka - if his performance doesn't make the naysayers who claim that he cannot race think otherwise, it's doubtful anything the soon-to-be quadruple champion does will.
The difference between the champion-elect's run of victories from Spa to Korea and his latest victory at the Suzuka circuit is that, on this occasion, instead of leading the way from the beginning, Vettel was forced to come from behind in order to snatch the silverware.
Almost from the outset, the race was a three-horse race between Vettel, his Red Bull teammate Mark Webber, the Australian taking pole position on his final trip to Suzuka as an F1 driver (aided by KERS problems for Vettel, it should be added), and Romain Grosjean, who, from fourth on the grid, jumped the pair of them heading into the first corner.
The second half of this season has seen Grosjean emerge as a credible candidate to lead the Lotus team into its post-Raikkonen era, and as the Frenchman seized the lead at the first corner, it seemed Grosjean could well be headed for the first win for a Frenchman in F1 since Olivier Panis stood atop the Monaco podium in 1996.
Another driver to make a good start was Lewis Hamilton, who started third. But, the Brit's race was to prove an exceptionally brief one - his Mercedes suffered an instantaneous puncture as his right-rear wheel made contact with the end-plate of Vettel's front wing as Hamilton tried to sweep across the reigning champion's bows.
Hamilton managed to coax his car back to the pit-lane, but the damage done to the floor and rear suspension in the process was sufficient to warrant his retirement a few laps later. Interestingly, had Hamilton successfully demoted Vettel to fourth place, it could have totally changed the complexion of the race.
As it was however, Vettel clung on to third place behind Grosjean and Webber, with Nico Rosberg running fourth in the sole remaining Mercedes ahead of Felipe Massa, Fernando Alonso and an ever-impressive Nico Hulkenberg.
Such was the pace advantage of the Red Bulls and Lotuses - something Mercedes believes is in large part thanks to clever engine mapping by Renault - that Grosjean, Webber and Vettel were able to escape the following pack at a rate of around a second per lap, Rosberg 10 seconds down on Vettel after as many laps.
The leading trio on the other hand were separated by little more than four seconds by the time Webber made his first pit-stop at the end of lap 11, swapping his options for a fresh set of primes. Grosjean followed suit the following lap, but crucially Vettel was able to stretch his opening stint to 14 laps before pitting.
Though Vettel resumed in third place behind Grosjean and Webber, the fact he had nursed his rubber more effectively up to this stage laid a rock-solid foundation on which he would build his ultimately irresistible challenge for victory.
Conversely, Webber was struggling with tyre wear, and as such was forced to switch to a theoretically slower three-stop strategy. There have been some who suggested after the race that this decision was a deliberate act of conspiracy on the part of Red Bull, but, with Vettel already so close to the title, what would the team have gained in hobbling Webber's bid for a first win of the season?
Webber made his second trip to the pits on lap 25, and it was at this stage that Lotus arguably sacrificed any slim chance Grosjean had of taking his first win. The Enstone team seemed not to realise that they were in fact racing Vettel, rather than Webber, for victory, and as such brought in Grosjean on lap 29 - far too early to give their driver any chance of holding off Vettel in the final stint.
Aided by his longer first stint, Vettel was able to go all the way until lap 37 before his second stop, after which he re-joined the track right behind Grosjean. With the black-and-gold machine's tyres already eight laps old by this stage, it took just three laps for Vettel to close down the two second advantage of Grosjean.
The inevitable pass for second place - Webber having re-taken the lead after Grosjean and Vettel's respective second stops - came at the first corner on lap 41, the Frenchman simply unable to respond to his rival's superior pace with his more used rubber.
One lap later, Webber came in for his third stop, and within a matter of laps was sat right on Grosjean's gearbox. An issue with his DRS prevented him from clearing Grosjean anywhere near as quickly as Vettel could, having to wait all the way until the first corner of the penultimate lap to do so. By this stage, Vettel had established an unassailable lead of nine seconds.
This meant there was no stopping Vettel taking a ninth win of the season - the 35th of his astonishing career - and extending his championship lead to a mammoth 90 points. With 100 now left to play for, the odds strongly favour Vettel sealing his fourth straight title crown in two weeks time at India - he needs just a fifth place finish, regardless of what any other driver achieves.
Behind Webber and Grosjean, Alonso made his way up to fourth place to keep himself in mathematical (if not actual) title contention. This involved a customary good start from a poor grid slot of eighth, followed by passes on teammate Massa during the second stint and Hulkenberg, who had jumped ahead in the first round of pit-stops, in the closing stages.
Hulkenberg was also demoted by Raikkonen with two laps to go, the Finn's race following a broadly similar trajectory to that of Alonso after starting one place behind the Ferrari driver on the grid. Sixth place for Hulkenberg marks the fourth top ten result in a row for the Sauber driver, who, if the paddock rumours are to be believed, has now signed a deal to join Lotus next season.
Coming home seventh was Esteban Gutierrez, who made a great start to climb immediately up to ninth and thereafter put in an assured performance behind the wheel of the second Sauber. It has taken a while for the Mexican to find his feet in F1, but since the summer break, Gutierrez has shown a marked upturn in form. Whether this will be enough to keep him in his seat for next season is an entirely different matter, however.
Having run in fourth early on, Rosberg ended up in eighth place after a drive-through penalty picked up at the first round of pit-stops as his Mercedes pit-crew released him into the path of Sergio Perez's McLaren. Rosberg was able to claw back some ground thereafter, but was unable to find a way by Gutierrez, behind whom he was stuck for the last half a dozen laps.
Another driver to pick up a drive-through penalty, albeit for pit-lane speeding, was Massa, who was forced to be content with a solitary point for tenth place; one position ahead of the Brazilian was McLaren's Jenson Button, who endured a fairly anonymous race en route to ninth.
Button's teammate Perez on the other hand had a far more eventful afternoon. Having run a creditable eighth early on, he lost time in the pits as a result of the near miss with Rosberg before becoming embroiled in an on-track skirmish with the German. Perez sustained a puncture in a clumsy attempt to defend his position from Rosberg at the Casio Triangle, dropping him to 15th at the chequered flag.
Eleventh place fell to Paul Di Resta in another tough race for Force India, who will now be looking over their shoulder at Sauber in the constructors' standings. Adrian Sutil meanwhile had to start from the very back of the grid following a penalty for a gearbox change, making his way up to 14th place by the finish.
Separating the two Force Indias were the Toro Rosso pair, Jean-Eric Vergne leading Daniel Ricciardo on this occasion. The latter started the race on the hard compound tyre, running as high as fourth before his first stop - holding up a pack of faster cars in the process. Any chance of Ricciardo scoring points nonetheless was blown out the water when he picked up a drive-through penalty for passing Di Resta by leaving the circuit.
Pastor Maldonado finished 16th, one place behind Perez, after a fairly brutal move on Williams teammate Valtteri Bottas at the Casio Triangle on the very last lap of the race. Rounding out the finishers were Charles Pic and Max Chilton, their respective teammates Giedo van der Garde and Jules Bianchi becoming early casualties after tangling at the very first corner of the race.
It's one thing to start a race from pole and simply sprint away into the distance, but it's quite another to have to read a race to perfection in order to come from behind and grab the upper hand over your competitors, which is precisely what Vettel did at Suzuka - if his performance doesn't make the naysayers who claim that he cannot race think otherwise, it's doubtful anything the soon-to-be quadruple champion does will.
10 October 2013
Japanese Grand Prix 2013 - Preview
Following a crushing streak of dominance since Formula One action resumed after the summer break, this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka marks the first occasion that Sebastian Vettel has the chance of closing out his fourth successive title.
By far the oldest and the most loved of the Asian flyaway rounds, Suzuka has been a fixture on the F1 calendar since 1987 - with the exception of a brief, two-year hiatus, when the rival Fuji Speedway took over the mantle. What's more, the fact that the owners of the venue, Honda, are making their return in 2015 as an engine supplier to McLaren should ensure the circuit remains on the calendar even after its recently extended deal expires after 2018.
The fact that Suzuka has always fallen near (or, for many years, at) the end of the season has lent itself to frequently hosting the title-deciding race, most recently with Vettel's second championship two years ago. It also rarely throws up a surprise winner; the last time a driver won there without finishing first or second in that year's championship was 2003, with Rubens Barrichello benefiting from his Ferrari teammate Michael Schumacher's problems in qualifying and the early part of the race.
The track itself is among the longest and most demanding of the year. Driver and car are put through a rigourous test lap after lap, the flowing first sector in particular notable for showing up those cars whose front-end grip is lacking. Suzuka is also one of the more narrow circuits, with 'old school' gravel run-offs still present at many corners which leave very little margin for error.
The tyre allocation for the weekend consists of the medium and hard compounds, the latter last seen at Monza, while the single DRS zone (Suzuka being the only track besides Monaco to feature only one) can be found, as per last year, along the main start/finish straight on the approach to 'First Curve'.
Vettel's championship lead over Fernando Alonso stands at 77 points, which he will have to increase to 100 in order to seal the title this weekend. In order for this to happen, Vettel has to win the race, with Alonso finishing no better than ninth. Given that the Spaniard has finished at least eighth at every race this year, with the exception of his Malaysia retirement, this looks to be something of a tall ask.
On recent form however, it's more than likely Vettel would be able to put the title beyond the reach of his rivals at India in two weeks' time - all he has to do is ensure that his points lead is at least 75 by then, which, unless anything out of the ordinary occurs, is a virtual certainty.
Suzuka has been kind to Vettel in the past, the Red Bull driver having won three of the last four races at the Japanese circuit, and given that the track could have been designed specifically to flatter the Red Bull, it's difficult to look anywhere else for the race victory this weekend. Were Vettel indeed to notch up a fifth win in a row, he would be only the sixth driver to do so in history after Alberto Ascari, Jack Brabham, Jim Clark, Nigel Mansell and, of course, Michael Schumacher.
As for the contenders for the remaining podium spots, Mark Webber must surely be among them, if only for the simple reason that he is driving the same Suzuka-friendly car as Vettel. It's easy to forget that the Australian was firmly on course to finish fourth in Singapore before his car gave out, whilst a podium position would have been a strong probability had he been able to start the Korean race from third rather than 13th.
The new long wheelbase E21 had about as successful a debut race as Lotus could have hoped for, even if the Safety Car was instrumental in catapulting Kimi Raikkonen into podium contention. Romain Grosjean's strong showing at Korea may have been slightly overshadowed by Nico Hulkenberg's heroics one place behind, but the Frenchman has unquestionably come along considerably since he was branded a "first lap nutcase" by Webber a year ago.
Ferrari was woefully off the pace at Korea, Alonso unable to finish higher than sixth place, and given the team are no longer updating this year's car, it could prove a challenge for the Scuderia to hang on to second place in the constructors' standings from their rivals at Mercedes. The Silver Arrows showed a handy turn of pace at Korea, particularly over one lap, meaning that neither Lewis Hamilton nor Nico Rosberg can be ruled out of a top-three result this weekend.
Hulkenberg will no doubt be buoyed by memories of Kamui Kobayashi's sensational third place finish for Sauber at Suzuka last year as he seeks to impress potential employers (i.e. Lotus) for next season, while Sergio Perez will be anxious to avoid a repeat of his self-inflicted retirement at the Japanese venue last year with his McLaren future still not entirely secure.
Another driver who needs a strong result is Paul Di Resta. Force India look to be spoiled for choice as far as drivers are concerned in 2014, with Nico Hulkenberg, Felipe Massa and McLaren junior Kevin Magnussen all potential options, in addition to the two incumbents, depending on what Lotus decide. With this in mind, Di Resta needs a strong result in Japan to banish memories of the last three races as decision time looms ever closer.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Massa, 10. Ricciardo
Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Grosjean, 4. Hamilton, 5. Alonso, 6. Rosberg, 7. Button, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez
It will be a fifth successive win for Vettel, but not quite a fourth successive title - thanks to Alonso's fifth place, the German's inevitable coronation will have to be delayed for two weeks. Webber will finally have a clean weekend after his recent mishaps to make it the first Red Bull one-two since Malaysia, with Grosjean making it two podium appearances in a row thanks to the superior race pace of his Lotus in comparison with Hamilton's Mercedes.
Rosberg will bring home the second Brackley-built car in sixth, just behind Alonso, with Jenson Button enjoying a steady run to seventh place. The ever-impressive Hulkenberg will make it four points-scoring races on the bounce with eighth place, followed by Daniel Ricciardo - who will take the ninth place finish he deserved in Korea - and Perez. Having been the major beneficiary of the Safety Car last time out, Raikkonen is my pick to experience some misfortune on Sunday, along with Massa.
By far the oldest and the most loved of the Asian flyaway rounds, Suzuka has been a fixture on the F1 calendar since 1987 - with the exception of a brief, two-year hiatus, when the rival Fuji Speedway took over the mantle. What's more, the fact that the owners of the venue, Honda, are making their return in 2015 as an engine supplier to McLaren should ensure the circuit remains on the calendar even after its recently extended deal expires after 2018.
The fact that Suzuka has always fallen near (or, for many years, at) the end of the season has lent itself to frequently hosting the title-deciding race, most recently with Vettel's second championship two years ago. It also rarely throws up a surprise winner; the last time a driver won there without finishing first or second in that year's championship was 2003, with Rubens Barrichello benefiting from his Ferrari teammate Michael Schumacher's problems in qualifying and the early part of the race.
The track itself is among the longest and most demanding of the year. Driver and car are put through a rigourous test lap after lap, the flowing first sector in particular notable for showing up those cars whose front-end grip is lacking. Suzuka is also one of the more narrow circuits, with 'old school' gravel run-offs still present at many corners which leave very little margin for error.
The tyre allocation for the weekend consists of the medium and hard compounds, the latter last seen at Monza, while the single DRS zone (Suzuka being the only track besides Monaco to feature only one) can be found, as per last year, along the main start/finish straight on the approach to 'First Curve'.
Vettel's championship lead over Fernando Alonso stands at 77 points, which he will have to increase to 100 in order to seal the title this weekend. In order for this to happen, Vettel has to win the race, with Alonso finishing no better than ninth. Given that the Spaniard has finished at least eighth at every race this year, with the exception of his Malaysia retirement, this looks to be something of a tall ask.
On recent form however, it's more than likely Vettel would be able to put the title beyond the reach of his rivals at India in two weeks' time - all he has to do is ensure that his points lead is at least 75 by then, which, unless anything out of the ordinary occurs, is a virtual certainty.
Suzuka has been kind to Vettel in the past, the Red Bull driver having won three of the last four races at the Japanese circuit, and given that the track could have been designed specifically to flatter the Red Bull, it's difficult to look anywhere else for the race victory this weekend. Were Vettel indeed to notch up a fifth win in a row, he would be only the sixth driver to do so in history after Alberto Ascari, Jack Brabham, Jim Clark, Nigel Mansell and, of course, Michael Schumacher.
As for the contenders for the remaining podium spots, Mark Webber must surely be among them, if only for the simple reason that he is driving the same Suzuka-friendly car as Vettel. It's easy to forget that the Australian was firmly on course to finish fourth in Singapore before his car gave out, whilst a podium position would have been a strong probability had he been able to start the Korean race from third rather than 13th.
The new long wheelbase E21 had about as successful a debut race as Lotus could have hoped for, even if the Safety Car was instrumental in catapulting Kimi Raikkonen into podium contention. Romain Grosjean's strong showing at Korea may have been slightly overshadowed by Nico Hulkenberg's heroics one place behind, but the Frenchman has unquestionably come along considerably since he was branded a "first lap nutcase" by Webber a year ago.
Ferrari was woefully off the pace at Korea, Alonso unable to finish higher than sixth place, and given the team are no longer updating this year's car, it could prove a challenge for the Scuderia to hang on to second place in the constructors' standings from their rivals at Mercedes. The Silver Arrows showed a handy turn of pace at Korea, particularly over one lap, meaning that neither Lewis Hamilton nor Nico Rosberg can be ruled out of a top-three result this weekend.
Hulkenberg will no doubt be buoyed by memories of Kamui Kobayashi's sensational third place finish for Sauber at Suzuka last year as he seeks to impress potential employers (i.e. Lotus) for next season, while Sergio Perez will be anxious to avoid a repeat of his self-inflicted retirement at the Japanese venue last year with his McLaren future still not entirely secure.
Another driver who needs a strong result is Paul Di Resta. Force India look to be spoiled for choice as far as drivers are concerned in 2014, with Nico Hulkenberg, Felipe Massa and McLaren junior Kevin Magnussen all potential options, in addition to the two incumbents, depending on what Lotus decide. With this in mind, Di Resta needs a strong result in Japan to banish memories of the last three races as decision time looms ever closer.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Massa, 10. Ricciardo
Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Grosjean, 4. Hamilton, 5. Alonso, 6. Rosberg, 7. Button, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez
It will be a fifth successive win for Vettel, but not quite a fourth successive title - thanks to Alonso's fifth place, the German's inevitable coronation will have to be delayed for two weeks. Webber will finally have a clean weekend after his recent mishaps to make it the first Red Bull one-two since Malaysia, with Grosjean making it two podium appearances in a row thanks to the superior race pace of his Lotus in comparison with Hamilton's Mercedes.
Rosberg will bring home the second Brackley-built car in sixth, just behind Alonso, with Jenson Button enjoying a steady run to seventh place. The ever-impressive Hulkenberg will make it four points-scoring races on the bounce with eighth place, followed by Daniel Ricciardo - who will take the ninth place finish he deserved in Korea - and Perez. Having been the major beneficiary of the Safety Car last time out, Raikkonen is my pick to experience some misfortune on Sunday, along with Massa.
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