Unfortunately, the answer is precious little. With its myriad
of sharp, slow corners, the Albert Park circuit and its ‘point n’ squirt’
nature is a world away from the sweeping, high-speed curves of the Sepang
Circuit where the F1 circus has now arrived. Combine that with the fickle
nature of the Malaysian weather, and this weekend’s race is just about as wide
open as was the curtain-raiser.
Traditionally, it has been the Red Bull that has excelled at
downforce-intensive tracks such as Sepang. Evidence in pre-season testing at
Barcelona would however suggest that McLaren are now at least as fast as their
Milton Keynes counterparts in that particular department. Australian Grand Prix
winner Jenson Button thus therefore can be considered the favourite,
particularly as he is well-suited to the blistering heat which places a premium
upon the tyre perseveration for which he is renowned as well as the monsoon-style
conditions Malaysia has been known to throw up on occasion instead.
In the other side of the garage, Lewis Hamilton will be
absolutely determined to score the equaliser in an intra-team battle that looks
set to rage all season long – the 2008 champion was visibly glum on the
Melbourne podium having finished in third place with no real answer to his
teammate’s pace having out-qualified him a day previously. Qualifying won’t be quite
as key as it was last weekend with the numerous overtaking opportunities Sepang
has to offer augmented by a long DRS zone along the start/finish straight, and
if it’s dry, Hamilton will have to manage his tyres far better than he did at
last year’s event, where a dismal four-stop strategy along with a 20-second
penalty for weaving ensured he finished in a lowly eight position.
On the other hand, it was a relatively straightforward
lights-to-flag triumph this time last year for Sebastian Vettel, and he’ll be
hoping to prove that the Red Bull isn’t trailing the McLaren quite as badly as events
Melbourne would suggest this time around. He may have qualified in a
disappointing sixth, but second place was a just reward for a next to faultless
race from the reigning champion – with a stronger qualifying this weekend,
Vettel should be right in the hunt. It was equally refreshing to see Mark
Webber bank his best-ever home race result too, the amicable Aussie having also
out-qualified his teammate for the first time since last year’s German Grand
Prix. It will be fascinating to see how long Webber can keep up such a
promising upturn in form.
Lotus drivers Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean could both
yet prove troublesome for the two front-running teams, neither really getting
the chance to show their true colours at Melbourne. Grosjean may have plonked
his Lotus on the second row in a spectacular qualifying session, but it was all
for nought when a poor start led to his early exit from the race courtesy of
one Pastor Maldonado. It was the other
way round for Raikkonen, who after qualifying in seventeenth by way of a
mistake in Q1 proceeded to finish ten places higher in the race with some
impressive pace amid traffic. Both could be potential podium threats if they
experience trouble-free weekends.
Much the same applies for Mercedes drivers Nico Rosberg and
Michael Schumacher. The latter was running in a strong third place before his
gearbox packed up, and Sepang is a track at which he has taken victory three
times in the past. One the other hand, the chronic tyre wear suffered by
Rosberg last weekend doesn’t bode too well for Malaysia if conditions are dry, as
it was that tyre wear that put the younger of the Mercedes teammates in the position
to pick up a puncture after making contact with the Sauber of Sergio Perez on
the final lap of the race. The two silver cars will therefore need to be sure
of a strong qualifying session to compensate.
Fernando Alonso may have a done a stellar job to finish his
reluctant Ferrari in fifth position at Melbourne, but the weekend was nothing
short of disaster for teammate Felipe Massa. The Brazilian struggled with
excessive tyre wear throughout the race, eventually retiring after colliding
with Bruno Senna in the closing stages of the race, who himself had recovered
after getting embroiled in the traditional first corner mêlée. Ferrari have given Massa the benefit of the doubt by
providing him with a fresh chassis for this weekend, but the Italian press are
already calling for his dismissal – Perez and the out-of-work Jarno Trulli
being mooted as potential replacements.
Speaking of Perez, the Mexican enjoyed an excellent
afternoon last time out, and would’ve almost certainly crossed the line in
sixth if not for the late contact with Rosberg. Instead, teammate Kamui Kobayashi
nabbed the position, but the pace of both the Sauber drivers would indicate
that they lead the mid-field pack ahead of Force India and Toro Rosso for now.
Maldonado may have been on course for a terrific sixth place prior to his last
lap shunt, but the Venezelan’s fondness for street circuits as well as Senna’s
lacklustre race means we shouldn’t pass judgement on just how big a step
Williams have taken just yet. As for the three perennial stragglers, Caterham
appear hardly any closer to the midfield than they were last year,
with apparent reliability issues to sort out, whilst the Marussia definitely seems
to have the legs on at least the HRT on the strength of both drivers actually
qualifying for the race – Glock’s 14th place finish could prove
crucial when it comes to determining the team’s constructors championship
placing come November.
Qualifying Prediction:
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Button, 4. Webber, 5. Rosberg, 6.
Raikkonen, 7. Schumacher, 8. Alonso, 9. Grosjean, 10. Kobayashi
Race Prediction:
1. Vettel, 2. Button, 3. Webber, 4. Hamilton, 5. Raikkonen,
6. Alonso, 7. Grosjean, 8. Rosberg, 9. Kobayashi, 10. Hulkenberg
This may be admittedly another fairly conservative
prediction, but I’m not going to stick my neck on the line by forecasting a
Lotus or Mercedes podium just yet.
Indeed, the top four from Melbourne will be the same for Sepang in a different
order, with Hamilton’s tyre wear woes dropping him back from a second straight
pole position. I can’t help but feel Vettel is going to strike back sooner or
later, and provided it remains dry there’s no reason in my view why Malaysia
can’t be the place. Alonso will once again wring every possible point out of
the Ferrari with Massa nowhere in sight, with Raikkonen just pipping the
Spaniard to the mark at the circuit where he claimed his first Grand Prix win
nine years ago. Grosjean will bank a healthy handful of points ahead of Rosberg,
Mercedes tyre wear gremlins likely to harm the prospects of both of the silver
cars. Kobayashi will enjoy a quietly impressive race weekend by starting and finishing
inside the top ten, with Nico Hulkenberg levelling the score with teammate Paul
di Resta with a measured drive to tenth position.
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