Chinese Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

The build-up to the Chinese Grand Prix, perhaps unsurprisingly, has been dominated by whether or not the following round of the championship at Bahrain ought to take place.

There have been calls from some quarters for the race to be cancelled; that for the race to go ahead as normal would be to project the impression that all is well in the tiny Gulf state and that F1 is on the side of the oppressive Bahraini rulers and not the people. My opinion however, for what it’s worth, is that the race should go ahead. The irony will not be lost on most that the discussions among Bernie Ecclestone and the teams as to the fate of the race is taking place in China, a country that hardly has an enviable human rights record itself. Indeed, if F1 were to stop visiting all the countries where such abuses take place, the F1 calendar would be looking distinctly empty.

Perhaps more to the point is that F1, as with all forms of sport, is a unifying force. It cannot afford to be anything but neutral in political affairs, lest it alienates those who disagree with the side it takes. It’s also difficult to see what the Bahraini people have to gain from the race being cancelled, as all the economic activity that comes as a result of the event will be lost. And if the race is cancelled for a second year in a row, there’s no guarantee it will be re-instated with countries such as France and Argentina looking for a return to the F1 calendar next year.

Anyway, back to China. The location of the DRS zone remains unchanged from last year, along the lengthy back straight on the approach to the tight hairpin of turn 14, whilst the tyres available for the race will be the medium and soft compound seen at Melbourne. With rain once more a distinct possibility however, China could prove another tough race to call.

Alonso’s win at Malaysia was as unexpected as it was brilliant, the Spaniard now in a surprise championship lead despite the obvious shortcomings of the Ferrari F2012. The in-season test at Mugello on which the Italian team is pinning its championship hopes is just two races away (or just one if Bahrain does get cancelled), meaning Alonso cannot be discounted by any means from this year’s title run-in. Even if the double champion can only finish best of the rest behind the McLarens and Red Bulls as he did in Melbourne at China and Bahrain, then even if Lewis Hamilton, who currently lies second in the standings, wins both times, Alonso will be just 25 points adrift with sixteen races still to go.

As for Sergio Perez, who drove to a superb second place last time out, rumours of a promotion to a Ferrari race seat alongside the man who he so nearly beat at Malaysia have been rife. Those that claimed Perez would be at the wheel of a scarlet car as early as this race have proven to be some way off the mark, but others have claimed more realistically that Felipe Massa has until the summer break to prove he deserves to see out the year with the team.

One thing that has been overlooked is whether Perez would actually benefit from such a move. He seems completely at home at the tightly-knit Sauber outfit, who have produced what appears to be their most competitive car as an independent constructor arguably since 2001 when Nick Heidfeld and Kimi Raikkonen took the Swiss team to fourth in the constructors’ standings. Needless to say that Ferrari has the financial muscle to vastly improve what is at the moment a poor car by their standards, but my gut feeling is that Perez has little to gain from an early switch to Ferrari. It would be better for the Mexican to complete the season with Sauber and for Ferrari to give their test driver Jules Bianchi some race experience towards the end of the year if Massa continues to disappoint.

Malaysia was a vast disappointment for McLaren, whose drivers had locked out the front row before the rain began to pour. For all their prowess in the wet, both Hamilton and Jenson Button struggled in the torrential conditions – Hamilton mysteriously couldn’t keep pace with Alonso and Perez after losing the lead even as the track dried out, whilst Button’s hopes went up in smoke as he clattered into the back of the out-of-position HRT of Narain Karthikeyan. Hamilton of course won at Shanghai last year, but a impending five-place grid penalty for a gearbox change will make a repeat performance extremely challenging. A podium thus would certainly constitute a job well done for the 2008 champion, whilst Button has to capitalise on his teammate’s misfortune whilst the McLaren is still the car to beat.

With Hamilton hobbled by his penalty, Button’s biggest challenge for the win is likely to come from Red Bull. Sebastian Vettel’s post-race exasperation with Karthikeyan made for some amusing headlines, the reigning champion dismissing the Indian driver as eine Gurke for his part in the collision that cost him fourth position at Sepang. The strong race pace of the Red Bulls means that both Vettel and Mark Webber have a good chance of at least winding up on the podium, although such an outcome hinges on their grid positions as their one-lap pace still leaves something to be desired in comparison to their rivals at McLaren and Mercedes.

The excellent qualifying pace of the Mercedes, as evidenced by Michael Schumacher lining up third on the grid at Malaysia, can be partially attributed to their clever DRS system, which stalls the front wing whenever the DRS gurney flap is open for an additional straight-line speed boost. Lotus has officially lodged a protest of the system, but the indication so far is that the FIA believes the system to be legal. Still, Mercedes has only amassed a single point so far in spite of the advantage offered by the system, largely as a result of the car’s propensity to chew up its rear tyres. Therefore, even if Schumacher and Nico Rosberg qualify strongly, a solid handful of points is about as much as they can hope for until this unfortunate issue is resolved.

Two other drivers that could rather do with getting their names on the scoreboard this weekend are Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado. Both have impressed with their speed, but circumstances have conspired to prevent either from having finished inside the top ten, or indeed at all, at the first two races. At Lotus, Kimi Raikkonen has raced the Lotus as if he’d never been away, whilst Bruno Senna delivered more points than Williams scored all of last season last time out in a fantastic, if somewhat overlooked drive to sixth position. Grosjean and Maldonado no longer have the luxury of being labelled ‘rookies’ – they need to turn their potential into points sooner rather than later to avoid being overshadowed by other actors in what is a crowded upper-midfield battle this season.

Qualifying Prediction:

1. Button, 2. Rosberg, 3. Vettel, 4. Schumacher, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Hamilton (penalty), 7. Webber, 8. Alonso, 9. Grosjean, 10. Maldonado

Race Prediction

1. Button, 2. Vettel, 3. Hamilton, 4. Webber, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Alonso, 7. Grosjean, 8. Rosberg, 9. Perez, 10. Maldonado

Providing rain doesn’t strike again, Button should, all things being equal, notch up his second win of the season. Vettel and Hamilton will complete the podium, the latter having recovered well from his grid penalty while Webber will narrowly overcome Raikkonen in the battle for fourth position. Alonso and Grosjean won’t be far behind, both finishing clear of Rosberg whose grotesque tyre wear and subsequent extra stop will drop him down to eighth position. Perez will put in another assured performance to take ninth, with Maldonado rounding out the top ten as he narrowly pips the ailing Schumacher to the final point of the day.