Italian Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

This weekend’s Italian Grand Prix, held at the legendary Monza circuit, marks the final round of the European season before the Formula One circus embarks on a helter-skelter ride of seven flyaway rounds in ten weekends that will decide the destiny of this year’s title.

Monza may be another high-speed circuit like Spa, but there is one crucial difference between the two – where the Belgian track’s flat-out sections are punctuated by fast and medium-speed corners, Monza’s straights are largely broken up by slower chicanes. That places a premium not only on a high top speed, but also strong traction in order to maximise the car’s competitiveness.

Ultra-low downforce settings will be the order of the day, and the hard and medium compound Pirelli tyres could mean we see more drivers attempting the one-stop strategy that paid dividends so well at Spa. Overtaking will be aided by not just one but two DRS zones: one along the start/finish straight on the approach to the Rettifilo chicane, and the other on the back straight prior to the Ascari chicane.

The talk of the paddock coming into this weekend has been for which team Lewis Hamilton will drive next season. The Brit’s publication of potentially sensitive telemetry data on Twitter on the eve of last weekend’s race will hardly have helped relations between driver and team which are already likely to have been strained this season due to various blunders on the part of McLaren.

This is Hamilton’s sixth season with the team, and a change of scenery could be the very thing to revitalise a career that hasn’t so much stalled as plateaued. Still, a switch to Mercedes in place of an allegedly soon-to-retire Michael Schumacher (the only realistic option for Hamilton among the top teams) would represent a huge gamble.

The Brackley outfit has yet to establish itself as a consistent front-runner since its championship season under its Brawn GP guise, and a move there would, in all likelihood, effectively rule Hamilton out of a title tilt in 2013. However, with the new engine regulations scheduled to come into force for 2014, positioning himself with a works team – one headed by Ross Brawn, no less – could potentially turn out to be a shrewd long-term move.

Hamilton has publicly admitted that he’s yet to make up his mind, so how he and the team fare this weekend could prove pivotal to that decision. He was discontented to say the least after qualifying at Spa, believing that the higher-downforce set-up he was using was the sole reason for the deficit between himself and teammate Jenson Button. The first-lap carnage deprived us of the chance to se how well he could bounce back in the race.

On the other hand, we established that Button, when he is at one with the car as he was at Spa, is almost unbeatable. Whether he can recapture that form here at Monza remains to be seen; nothing can be taken for granted in this roller-coaster ride of a season. Still, the McLaren will probably again prove to be the fastest car, a state of affairs upon which both Button and Hamilton need to capitalise if they are to erode Fernando Alonso’s points lead.

Felipe Massa demonstrated last time out that the Ferrari has solid race pace, and a podium thus could well have been on the cards for Alonso before a certain Lotus E20 came perilously close to landing on his head at La Source. The tifosi will no doubt be hoping for a repeat of the heroics that saw Alonso start fourth on the grid last year and emerge from Rettifilo in the lead, but a steady run to a solid haul of points is all the Spaniard needs to keep himself sitting pretty atop the standings.

Massa put in one of his better performances of the year to claim fifth place at Spa, but Nico Hulkenberg’s stellar run to fourth has predictably intensified rumours that he could be off to Maranello next season in place of the Brazilian. Massa needs to use this weekend to show that he is still worthy of a drive with a team that has taken no fewer than 18 Italian Grand Prix wins over the years.

Lotus were perhaps not as significant a threat to Button hegemony as many expected at Spa, but the cool conditions didn’t play to the car’s strengths. With warmer temperatures on the cards this weekend, expect Raikkonen to be in with a shout of that illusive first win of the season. With Romain Grosjean on an enforced one-race leave for causing the first-corner mayhem last weekend, replacement driver Jerome D’Ambrosio has a golden opportunity to score his first career points.

Sebastian Vettel may have fond memories of securing his maiden F1 win at Monza for Toro Rosso, but this weekend could prove testing for the Red Bull team. The Milton Keynes-built cars are consistently some of the slowest through the speed traps, and this year they don’t have the exhaust-blown diffuser to make up for it. Solid points will probably suffice for Vettel this weekend, whilst Mark Webber needs to get back on terms with his teammate after three races of relative mediocrity.

Schumacher’s Mercedes conversely proved extremely tough to overtake, even with the help of DRS, at Spa, meaning he and Rosberg could be in for their best race in some time. The Belgian circuit’s fast corners prevented the team from exploiting their car’s straight-line advantage, but Monza’s layout should be somewhat more Silver Arrow-friendly. Schumacher is no stranger to success here, having thrilled Ferrari fans with Italian GP wins on five separate occasions.

Off the back of a stunning qualifying performance, Sauber could well be in a position to upset the usual front-runners once more – assuming, of course, that both drivers are able to navigate the first chicane without being blindsided. Kamui Kobayashi has seemingly upped his game in recent races, as evidenced by his front row grid slot at Spa, meaning Sergio Perez will have to soon re-establish superiority over his teammate to keep his chances of a Ferrari seat for next year alive.

Force India could also be in a position to grab a couple more points after perhaps their best race of the year, which would consolidate seventh place in the constructors’ standings over Williams. Pastor Maldonado has a ten-place grid penalty for jumping the start at Spa, meaning he’ll have to be extra-cautious to avoid making contact with any of his rivals at Rettifilo to avoid the race ban that befell Grosjean last time out.

Qualifying Predictions

1. Hamilton, 2. Button, 3. Alonso, 4. Schumacher, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Rosberg, 7. Perez, 8. Vettel, 9.  Massa, 10. Di Resta

Race Predictions

1. Hamiton, 2. Alonso, 3. Button, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Vettel, 6. Schumacher, 7. Perez, 8. Kobayashi, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. D’Ambrosio

With McLaren looking like the fastest car once again, Hamilton will put the lows of Spa behind him and take a commanding victory from Alonso, whose car will be quicker in the race than in qualifying. Button will defend the final podium place from a dogged Raikkonen, with Vettel a distant fifth place. Schumacher will qualify on the front two rows but will fade in the race, with Rosberg falling outside the points as he struggles to get the car dialled in à la Spa. Sauber will get both cars in the points with one-stop strategies, with Hulkenberg getting the better of Di Resta once again to score more precious points for Force India. Despite an unspectacular qualifying session, D’Ambrosio will stealthily make his way up the order to claim his first career point in tenth place.