Indian Grand Prix 2012 - Report

Sebastian Vettel took a comfortable fourth win in succession with another impeccable drive at the Indian Grand Prix. After fending off the challenge of Red Bull teammate Mark Webber on the first lap, the reigning champion led every lap and takes another stride towards this year’s championship. Fernando Alonso salvaged a second place finish ahead of Webber, the Australian suffering from KERS failure in the latter half of the race.

Red Bull carried over their imperious form displayed at Korea into Saturday’s qualifying session, Vettel securing pole position by less than a tenth of a second from Webber. McLaren appeared to be the Anglo-Austrian team’s closest challengers, Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button sharing row two between them, with Ferrari drivers Alonso and Felipe Massa next up from Kimi Raikkonen’s Lotus.

As the lights went out on Sunday, Vettel only made a medicore getaway but was nonetheless able to resist Webber through the first sequence of bends. Behind, Button made a superior start to Hamilton to take third position through the first corner, but as the McLaren pair went side-by-side along the back straight Alonso took advantage of the double slip-stream to move ahead of Hamilton as the field made their way through the turn 4 hairpin.

Alonso was able to use his impressive top-end speed to make an easy DRS-assisted pass at the same place on Button on lap 4, but by this stage the Red Bull duo were already escaping from the rest of the field – by lap 6, Alonso was already six seconds away from race leader Vettel. On lap 5, Hamilton passed Button in identical fashion to Alonso, with Massa and Raikkonen forming an orderly queue behind the seeming off-the-pace Briton.

With tyre wear looking to be fairly minimal around the Buddh International Circuit, all the leading runners opted to make just one pit-stop. While Vettel continued to press home his advantage at the head of the field, Alonso had gradually been catching Webber during the first stint. By the time both had made their one and only stops to switch from soft to hard compound tyres (on laps 29 and 30 respectively), the gap between them was down to less than a second.

Webber was able to ease away from Alonso once more at the start of the second stint, but after another ten or so laps it became apparent that the number 2 Red Bull was struggling with a KERS failure. Alonso duly closed in on his adversary once again, and was finally able to wrest second position away from Webber along the back straight with the help of DRS on lap 48.

Vettel by this stage had a lead in the order of a dozen seconds from championship rival Alonso, but some late drama arrived in the form of an ostensibly damaged floor on board the leading Red Bull: the ‘tea tray’ element of the floor at one stage appeared to sag from the car and scrape along the tarmac, causing sparks to fly. This didn’t seem to greatly affect Vettel’s pace however, and the reigning champion held on for a fifth win of the season by a margin of just under ten seconds.

Second position was a strong return for Alonso having qualified fifth on a day where the Ferrari was clearly not up to the task of challenging Red Bull; the erstwhile championship leader now sits 13 points behind Vettel with 75 left to play for. Webber’s travails appeared to leave him vulnerable to an attack from Hamilton, who began to close at nearly two seconds per lap initially, but the former was just able to hold off the latter as the McLaren’s pace faded towards the end of the race.

Fifth place went to Button, who after moving clear of Massa and Raikkonen enjoyed a fairly uneventful race. Massa was able to keep Raikkonen frustrated all the way until the first pit-stops, at which point the Finn was able to overtake the second Ferrari as it left the pits. Massa wasted no time in taking back sixth place however, blasting by the Lotus along the back straight with the help of DRS – Raikkonen would be once more stuck behind Massa until the chequered flag and had to be content with seventh place.

It was another fine performance from Nico Hulkenberg, who powered past Sergio Perez in the first stint before going on to secure a creditable eighth place finish for Force India on ‘home’ ground. Ninth fell to Romain Grosjean, who was one of the few runners to start the race on the hard tyre, while the final point went the way of Bruno Senna for Williams, overtaking teammate Pastor Maldonado and Nico Rosberg in a competitive showing by the Brazilian.

Rosberg crossed the line in a disappointing eleventh place in another difficult day for Mercedes - Michael Schumacher in the sister car  had a dismal afternoon after sustaining a right-rear puncture having been clipped by Jean-Eric Vergne’s Toro Rosso at the first corner of the race. The seven-time champion later caught the attention of the stewards for ignoring blue flags before the team elected to retire the car a couple of laps from home.

It was a popular day for right-rear punctures, as Perez suffered one after turning across the bows of the other Toro Rosso of Daniel Ricciardo having made an early first pit-stop; the suspension damage caused would eventually lead to the Mexican’s retirement. Maldonado also suffered a similar fate at the hands of Kamui Kobayashi, although the Venezuelan driver would survive the encounter and finish sixteenth.

Paul di Resta could do more than twelfth place in an anonymous day for the Scot at the wheel of the second Force India, finishing ahead of Ricciardo, Kobayashi and Vergne. Behind Maldonado finished the Caterhams of Vitaly Petrov and Heikki Kovalainen, who had a late KERS problem, the Marussia pair of Charles Pic and Timo Glock as well as Narain Karthikeyan’s HRT on home soil. The sister car of Pedro de la Rosa retired mid-distance as his car spun into the barriers at turn 4 due to brake failure.

Vettel’s performance was certainly ominous as far as the title is concerned, but the late (if ultimately inconsequential) drama concerning the Red Bull’s floor comes as a timely reminder that anything can happen in the remaining three races. Whilst Adrian Newey’s cars have been quick, their reliability has hardly been bullet-proof; Alonso simultaneously proved that the Ferrari is still capable of showing some impressive race pace. Don’t write off the wily Spaniard just yet.

Indian Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

On paper, it seems as if it’s all over. Those that subscribe to that particular viewpoint should nonetheless remember that in F1, anything can happen – and often does. Sebastian Vettel may be on a roll reminiscent of his dominant campaign of last year, but with four races standing between him and a third title it’s not quite a foregone conclusion just yet.

The Buddh International Circuit near New Delhi in India plays host to what could prove another pivotal round in this year’s title encounter. The difference between India and some of the other Asian nations that are relatively new to the F1 calendar – namely China, Korea and Bahrain – is that there is something of a budding motorsport culture (helped no doubt by a representative among the drivers in Narain Karthikeyan) to be found and thus plenty of eager fans on hand to fill the grandstands. Combined with a track layout that ranks among one of Hermann Tilke’s more acclaimed designs and India could yet transpire to be a ‘must-have’ fixture on the F1 calendar.

The track itself is not dissimilar in character to Korea, in that the opening section featuring two long straights and slow corners is juxtaposed against a highly technical section of medium speed sweepers that demand solid front downforce. The two DRS zones are to be found along the start/finish straight and the lengthier back straight, which should make both the first corner and the turn 4 hairpin prime passing places, whilst the hard and soft compound Pirelli tyres will be on offer to the teams.

Despite my perhaps optimistic opening paragraph, Red Bull and their number one driver have to be regarded as favourites to take honours this weekend. It seems as if Vettel has finally been able to get the RB8 exactly to his liking courtesy of the raft of updates applied during the Asian flyaways that have made the Milton Keynes-built car the undoubted class of the field. Perhaps the German’s stiffest opposition will once again come from in-house, with teammate Mark Webber seemingly back on the sort of form that carried him to victory at Silverstone all those months ago following his unexpected Korea pole position.

Ferrari appeared to have at least the race pace to challenge the Red Bulls at Korea, but their lacklustre qualifying form as of late has served to all but rule out the Prancing Horse from challenging for wins. With a gap of just six points between himself and Vettel, Fernando Alonso is still the master of his own destiny to a certain extent. The team have reportedly now overcome the wind-tunnel calibration gremlins that proved so detrimental to the team’s early progress, although it remains to be seen whether that will translate into any extra performance on-track this weekend.

In the sister car, Felipe Massa was able to follow up his eye-catching run to second place at Suzuka with another potential podium-clinching performance at Korea, the Brazilian dutifully crossing the line in fourth place in the interests of his teammate’s title bid in spite of looking to have the pace to challenge Webber ahead. With a one-year extension to his contract in his pocket, Massa appears to have turned the proverbial corner and could yet prove a useful ally in Alonso’s battle against Vettel.

Assessing the progress of McLaren during the last two races has been difficult. For Lewis Hamilton, nothing seems to have gone his way since gearbox failure denied him a likely victory at Singapore. A suspension problem prevented the former champion from finishing any higher than fifth at Suzuka, whilst an early rear roll-bar failure would consign Hamilton to just a single point at Korea. Button meanwhile found himself engaged in a fruitless chase of Kamui Kobayashi at Suzuka before being wiped out by the Japanese driver on lap one a week later at Korea.

The evidence during qualifying and the early part of the race at Korea however suggests that the McLaren is still very much at least a podium contender, so expect Hamilton and Button to aim to be in the mix for the fight for pole position. If Red Bull assert their superiority once again at India, then a close battle between Woking and Maranello for best-of-the-rest honours could be on the cards once again. That won’t be enough however to keep alive the fading ember that is Hamilton’s title hopes.

Another driver still entertaining remote hopes of title success is Lotus’s Kimi Raikkonen, who lies third in the title chase despite his dearth of wins in 2012. Those hopes were largely riding on the new ‘Coanda effect’ exhaust system that was implemented on the Finn’s car at Korea, which was a qualified success even if it didn’t propel the E20 to the heights it scaled earlier in the year. Romain Grosjean meanwhile was driving somewhat within himself at Korea following his first lap misdemeanour with Webber a week prior; the Frenchman will be hoping for a boost this weekend now his car is also blessed with the new exhaust system.

The hard tyres on offer this weekend should play into the hands of Sauber, who often perform well on the hardest compound, so another giant-killing performance from Sergio Perez is by no means out the question. Force India will be looking to keep up the form Nico Hulkenberg demonstrated at Korea, whilst Toro Rosso could potentially make use of the long straights along which their cars often excel to make it four points-scoring outings on the trot. Mercedes and Williams on the other hand look to have work to do before getting themselves firmly back in the hunt for points.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Alonso, 5. Massa, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Button, 8. Grosjean, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Rosberg

Race Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Alonso, 4. Webber, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Perez, 7. Grosjean, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Di Resta, 10. Ricciardo

It’s hard to see exactly what can stand in the way of a fourth straight Vettel victory at India, with the possible exceptions of rain and alternator failure. With neither of those looking likely, it will be up to Hamilton to keep the reigning champion honest, with Alonso doing the best he can with limited machinery to snatch another podium ahead of Webber and Raikkonen. Perez will make decisive progress late in the race thanks to another tyre management masterclass to take sixth, ahead of Grosjean, the two Force Indias and Ricciardo. No sign of either Button or Massa – two tight hairpins for the pack to negotiate on lap one will inevitably lead to some contact… right?

Wasted Talent

In recent weeks, yet more pieces of the driver market puzzle have fallen into place. We now know that Felipe Massa will remain with Ferrari for one more year before (probably) having to give way to a certain Herr Vettel, Nico Hulkenberg is set to make a sideways step from Force India to Sauber and that the latest Telmex protegé, Esteban Gutierrez, is tipped to join him.

What’s caught my attention, however, are not the drivers who have secured seats, but moreover the drivers that have not, or are unlikely to. I can’t think of an era in Formula One when more talent has been left to fester on the sidelines, and with more young drivers seemingly on the cusp of making their Grand Prix debut the situation looks only as if it will detierorate next season.

Here is a list of all the drivers currently under the age of 30 that have lost their F1 seat in the past three years: Nelson Piquet Jr., Kazuki Nakajima, Lucas di Grassi, Karun Chandhok, Adrian Sutil, Sebastien Buemi, Jaime Alguersauri, and Jerome D’Ambrosio. By the end of the year, we may also be able to add Kamui Kobayashi, Vitaly Petrov and Bruno Senna to that worryingly long list.

All of the aforementioned that raced in GP2, with the exception of Nakajima, were race winners and in some cases title contenders, whilst Sutil and Alguersauri were given their F1 chances on the virtue of their impressive Formula Three CVs. That means none of them are bad drivers, or didn’t deserve their F1 grid slot, yet now all have been consigned, at least for now, to the scrapheap of F1 talent with little prospect of reprieve.

So why is this the case? And can anything be done to rectify it? You may argue that I’m getting somewhat sentimental here; that the F1 driver market is a simple exercise in supply-and-demand economics. It goes without saying that in this post-manufacturer era, in which the smaller teams are now so reliant upon their drivers to bring sponsorship, the turnaround of drivers is going to be higher.

We shouldn’t forget nonetheless that F1 is, foremostly, a sport, and as such talent ought to come before sponsorship dollars. Opting for one driver over another simply due to monetary concerns can often be a false economy, particularly given the wider sponsorship opportunities open to teams that are able to secure big results as well as the extra prize money available for finishing higher in the constructors' standings.

Part of the issue is that talent isn’t being given chance to develop sufficiently, partly because of the pressures brought to bear by sponsors. Gutierrez, assuming he gets his Sauber seat next year, is a good example. The young Mexican is clearly talented, as evidenced by his success in GP3 and GP2. But, there have been too many errors in a year he was touted as being among the GP2 title favourites; as such he placed third in the championship this season.

Many drivers have of course secured F1 seats with lesser results than Esteban, but he’s only 21 years old – barely old enough to order a beer in America. He’s only had two full tests in an F1 car, at the 2010 and 2011 Young Drivers Tests at Abu Dhabi, and could surely benefit from some Friday sessions next season alongside a third campaign of GP2 before being let loose on an F1 race seat.

Sauber are known to have concerns about his inexperience, but Telmex ultimately make up a sizeable chunk of the Swiss outfit’s budget and thus their desire to see Gutierrez take a race drive cannot be ignored. And if Telmex’s wish does indeed come true, that’s one less space on the grid available for a Kobayashi, an Alguersauri or a Sutil.

Red Bull is perhaps the biggest offender in this category. Perhaps neither Buemi nor Alguersauri set the world on fire during their tenure at Toro Rosso, but they too were rushed through the junior formulae as if the energy drink giant believed that drivers were somehow past it by age 25. Buemi had just one full season of GP2, in which he was only sixth in the championship, whilst Alguersauri was parachuted into Sebastien Bourdais’s seat in mid-2009 with just half a season of World Series by Renault under his belt.

Admittedly, some drivers, chiefly Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen, prove it’s possible to adapt to F1 machinery with very limited experience in the lower categories. But just because they managed it doesn’t mean we should expect every up-and-coming driver to. Indeed, how many team principals these days would have given a then 21-year old Button a second chance after his terrible 2001 season in which he was totally outclassed by Giancarlo Fisichella at Benetton?

Button didn’t go on to win his first race until 2006, by which time he was age 26. Gerhard Berger was 27 when he finally took his first win, Rubens Barrichello was 28, Mika Hakkinen was 29 and Nigel Mansell was 32. Every driver takes a different amount of time to develop, so why are some F1 teams giving their drivers so little time to prove themselves?

Every team is, understandably, desperate for the next Lewis Hamilton or the next Sebastian Vettel, a driver who within a season proves he is championship material. What we shouldn’t forget though is that both of these drivers made their debuts before the era of no in-season testing, meaning both were able to rack up considerable mileage before their first F1 races – neither was quite the completely inexperienced rookie they were portrayed to be.

Perhaps the answer is therefore some kind of return to in-season testing, but only for young drivers. The best way to do this, keeping the need to minimise costs firmly in mind, would be to introduce an extra one-hour session over the course of a Grand Prix weekend designated specifically for reserve drivers. For this to work as intended, a rule would be required that stipulates reserve drivers must be under a certain age (26, let’s say) and with a season or less of F1 race experience.

Going back to the Sauber scenario, everyone’s a winner: the team can evaulate Gutierrez more accurately before handing him a race seat, Gutierrez himself will be likely to make fewer mistakes in his debut season having accumulated plenty of mileage in an F1 car beforehand, Telmex get to see their man in action every weekend, a more experienced driver such as Kobayashi gets an extra season to prove his worth, and fans get to see a larger variety of drivers on track whilst being able to make accurate comparisons between the race drivers and the reserves.

Had such a system been put in place three years ago, perhaps we would still see some of the talents mentioned earlier in this article with a race seat. Perhaps a couple of them may have even made that big breakthrough that would assured them of a permament drive. We’ll never know, of course, but it's not too late to prevent the next generation of drivers from suffering a similar fate.

Korean Grand Prix 2012 - Report

Sebastian Vettel seized the championship lead with a third successive victory in another sublime performance at Korea. Taking command of the race at the very first corner, Vettel out-dragged pole-sitting teammate Mark Webber at the start and lead every lap thereafter en route to a comfortable fourth win of the season. The Australian hung on to make it the first Red Bull one-two of the year, with Fernando Alonso completing the podium.

Red Bull once again proved the class of qualifying on Saturday, but to the surprise of most onlookers it was Webber who would line up ahead of his reigning champion teammate. Hamilton was the closest challenger to the Adrian Newey-designed cars, lining up third, ahead of Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso, Lotus’s Kimi Raikkonen and the second Ferrari of Felipe Massa. Yellow flags in Q2 prevented Button from progressing to the final part of qualifying, meaning the Brit would line up in a lowly eleventh place.

As the lights went out on Sunday, it was Vettel who made the superior getaway of the two Red Bull drivers, darting up the inside at the first corner and holding his ground along the back straight to take the lead. Alonso made the same move on Hamilton to stake an early claim to third place, whilst Massa found his way past former Ferrari teammate Raikkonen to take fifth.

Meanwhile, there was incident behind as Button sought to make up ground from his grid slot. The McLaren driver was running three abreast with Sergio Perez’s Sauber to the left and Nico Rosberg’s Mercedes to the right when the second of Sauber of Kamui Kobayashi out-braked himself just behind. The Japanese driver subsequently ricocheted between the cars of Rosberg and Button on the approach to the turn 3 hairpin, putting both out of the race.

Back at the front, Vettel began to press home his advantage, opening up a four-second lead over Webber during the first stint. The first spate of pit-stops passed without incident as the leaders all switched from super-soft to soft compound tyres, at which point Webber began to drop into the clutches of Alonso. At the same time, Hamilton was suffering from tyre graining, later diagnosed as a rear roll-bar failure, and began to come under pressure from former title rival Massa.

Whilst Webber was able to stabilise the gap to the chasing Ferrari, Hamilton was forced to concede fourth place to Massa on lap 21 as the Brazilian made the inevitable move at turn 3. Raikkonen tried to follow suit on lap 24, but Hamilton saved his KERS for the following straight and retaliated against the Lotus driver at the very next turn – the Finn would be stuck behind the McLaren for another two laps until Hamilton made a premature second stop.

Vettel by this stage now had a cushion of eight seconds over Webber, but was instructed by his team during the final stint after his second pit-stop to take it easy and preserve the tyres. Webber was able to close the gap somewhat as a result, but in the end nobody was in a position to deny Vettel a 25^th career victory. The reigning champion, in addition to taking the championship lead, now surpasses Juan Manuel Fangio’s win total and draws level with both Jim Clark and Niki Lauda.

It was ultimately close but no cigar for Webber, who stood on the podium for the first time since his win at Silverstone, with Alonso unable to take the fight to the Red Bulls and forced to settle for third place. Massa appeared to have the pace to overhaul Alonso at one stage, but was told to keep his distance by the team in the interests of his teammate’s title bid. Still, it was another astute performance from the Brazilian and an extension to his Ferrari contact now appears imminent.

Raikkonen moved back into a distant fifth position (where he would ultimately finish) after Hamilton’s second stop, but more tyre woes for the Brit meant that Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg were able to catch and initiate a three-way battle for sixth. On lap 40, Grosjean was able to draw alongside Hamilton down the back straight with the help of DRS, but ran wide at turn 3. This gave Hulkenberg the opportunity to pass as the trio came down the following straight.

Moving to the outside, the Force India driver swept past Grosjean and out-braked the ailing Hamilton sufficiently to move around the outside of turn 4 and snatch sixth place. Hamilton pitted for a third time at the end of lap 42, allowing Grosjean to move into seventh place. The McLaren driver resumed in tenth place behind the Toro Rosso pair of Jean-Eric Vergne and Daniel Ricciardo, who was struggling with a brake problem in the final stint and allowed teammate Vergne past to safeguard eighth place for the team.

Hamilton meanwhile looked to have the pace to overhaul both of the Red Bull-backed youngsters, but would be foiled by a stray piece of astroturf that got caught on the McLaren’s sidepod. Whilst Vergne and Ricciardo (who started down in 21^st after a five-place gearbox penalty) took eighth and ninth places in an excellent day for Toro Rosso, Hamilton only just defended tenth place from Perez at the chequered flag; the Brit’s title ambitions now look to hang by a thread.

Perez, along with the second Force India of Paul Di Resta, failed to make much ground by starting on the soft tyre and ended up just outside the points in eleventh and twelfth ahead of Michael Schumacher, whose Mercedes suffered from particularly lacklustre race pace. The two Williams cars were also off the pace, Pastor Maldonado and Bruno Senna rounding out the top fifteen.

Next to finish was the Caterham duo, Vitaly Petrov out-finishing teammate Heikki Kovalainen on this occasion, ahead of the Marussias of Timo Glock and Charles Pic as well as Narain Karthikeyan’s HRT. Joining Button and Rosberg in retirement would be the perceived perpetrator of the incident that ended their races, Kobayashi, who served a drive-through penalty before retiring to preserve the car early on. HRT meanwhile opted to retire the car of Pedro de la Rosa due to a sticking throttle.

A hat-trick of wins for Vettel may look like the championship is all but decided with just four races to go, but if this 2012 season has taught us anything, it’s that the dominance of a particular car can vanish at a moment’s notice – McLaren have come off the back of two difficult races after looking unbeatable just after the summer break. Just six points separate Vettel and Alonso with 100 left to play for: it’s far from over just yet.

Korean Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

Whilst the outcome of last weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix doesn’t exactly bode well for those hoping for a thrilling finale to a so far unforgettable season (and who doesn’t?), this weekend’s encounter at Korea could well turn things around just as easily as the title fight reaches boiling point.

The Korean International Circuit which plays host to Sunday’s race, despite having only been constructed in 2010, has a troubled history. In fact, this may prove to be Formula One’s final visit to the Hermann Tilke-designed track, as the low profile of the sport in Korea has led to difficulties in filling the grandstands and consequently financial strife. Despite that, the circuit itself is an interesting proposition, combining the longest straight on the calendar – at 1.2km long – with traditional Tilke-style tight corners, a few fast sweeping bends and a street circuit-esque segment at the end of the lap.

The long straight does place something of a premium on solid top-end speed, although strong traction and rear stability are also essential for the remainder of the lap. Tyre strategy will likewise be critical with the two softest compound of Pirelli tyre, the super-soft and soft, on offer. Whether there’ll be a repeat of the blistering some teams were suffering from in Japan is yet to be seen, although temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler. The DRS zone has been lengthened this year in comparison to last in order to facilitate more overtaking at the turn 3 hairpin, although turns 1 and 4 may also provide some action.

On paper, Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel scarcely look as if they can lose this one. The reigning champion was victorious at this circuit last year, and was firmly in command in 2010 until engine failure allowed Fernando Alonso to ascend the top step of the podium instead. Considering the German is also fresh from the first back-to-back wins of the season, not to mention pole position and fastest lap at Suzuka, and a bet against Vettel is looking very foolhardy indeed.

However, reality may differ somewhat from such a foregone conclusion. Red Bull is traditionally among the poorest cars through the speed traps, a major hindrance when defending your position along the calendar’s longest straight, and the track layout is more akin to Singapore than Suzuka – where McLaren (at least with Lewis Hamilton in the cockpit) appeared to have the edge over Vettel.

Hamilton may have not really been in contention at Suzuka, but a poor set-up during qualifying and a suspension problem during the race exaggerated the Brit’s problems. The evidence therefore suggests that Korea should be a great deal closer than Suzuka was, with a resumption of Singapore’s head-to-head battle between Hamilton and Vettel a likely scenario.

Mark Webber may also prove a dark horse, as the Australian showed some strong race pace at Japan having been shunted out of contention for a podium courtesy of Romain Grosjean before the race had barely begun. Jenson Button can’t be ruled out either, as he was keeping Vettel honest during the latter half of Singapore after the sister McLaren of Hamilton expired.

If Alonso does indeed lose the title to Vettel (or any other driver, indeed) come Brazil, Suzuka will probably be regarded as the point at which the title was lost. His move across the bows of Kimi Raikkonen on the approach to the first corner was an uncharacteristic error from this season’s most consistent performer, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time.

Lest we forget, however, Alonso does still lead the championship, even if by just four points. Ferrari will however, needless to say, need to considerably improve the F2012 if their star driver is to remain in command of his own destiny. A good strategy could salvage a podium this weekend if any of the McLarens or Red Bulls hit trouble, but this weekend is likely to prove a damage limitation excercise for Spain’s finest.

With some major updates being brought to the Lotus this weekend, Korea will decide whether Raikkonen will be able to stay in touch with the other title contenders. The Finn has barely scraped inside the top six at the last three races with the Enstone-built car having ostensibly fallen behind its rivals in the development race, but a return to the sort of form the team demonstrated at Hungary – the last time Raikkonen was on the podium – is a possibility if the upgrades work as hoped.

Korea is also going to be pivotal for the man in the other side of the Lotus garage, if for rather different reasons. Grosjean has undergone an enormous amount of criticism for his eighth early collision of the year (not all of which were his fault, it should be added), with Webber even labelling Grosjean a ‘nutcase’ post-race. The 2011 GP2 champion has to prove once and for all he can race cleanly if he is to silence the intensifying calls from some quarters for him to be dropped.

The Mercedes cars should be at home down the straights at Yeongam, whilst a couple of the Force Indias and Williams drivers may feature in the scrap for points as they did at Singapore. It will also be interesting to see whether Kamui Kobayashi can build on the momentum generated by his excellent third place finish on home turf, a race in which he put teammate and future McLaren driver Sergio Perez to shame, as his future with the Swiss outfit is still not clear.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Alonso, 5. Grosjean, 6. Button, 7. Raikkonen, 8. Maldonado, 9. Massa, 10. Di Resta

Race Prediction

1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Alonso, 4. Webber, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Maldonado, 7. Massa, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Kobayashi, 10. Di Resta

I shall go for a slightly more adventurous prediction for a change, and back Hamilton for a fourth victory of the season. Alonso will just about remain the points leader, giving away three points to Vettel, who despite taking pole could find himself in danger of being passed down the back straight by his Mercedes-engined rival early on. Webber will have a solid drive to fourth behind Alonso and just ahead of Raikkonen, with Maldonado putting in an eye-catching performance for sixth. Massa will lose out to his fellow South American and place seventh, with Kobayashi forming the meat in a Force India sandwich in the dice for the final few points-paying positions. No sign of Button – could McLaren unreliability strike again? – while Grosjean will fail to finish once again, albeit not for a reason of his own making on this occasion. Hopefully.

Japanese Grand Prix 2012 - Report

Sebastian Vettel became the first back-to-back race winner of 2012 in an imperious display at the Japanese Grand Prix. Starting from pole position, the German led throughout and is now just four points behind points leader Fernando Alonso as the Ferrari driver retired at the first corner of the race. Felipe Massa took advantage of the situation to claim his first podium in two years, whilst Kamui Kobayashi made it race to remember for the crowd by claiming an excellent third place on home soil.

Red Bull clearly appeared to be the car to beat from the very outset, Vettel and teammate Mark Webber locking out the front row between them on Saturday. Jenson Button was the closest challenger to the Milton Keynes cars, but a five-place gearbox penalty meant he would start the race from eighth. Benefitting were the Saubers, Kobayashi lining up third and teammate Sergio Perez in fifth just behind Lotus driver Romain Grosjean, whilst Alonso would have to be content with sixth in a difficult session. Lewis Hamilton was also struggling with set-up issues, and could do no better than ninth place.

Vettel made the perfect getaway as the lights went out on Sunday, with Kobayashi getting a great launch from third position to slot into second place behind the Red Bull. Webber was conversely somewhat slower off the mark, which would end up proving costly – Grosjean was right behind the Australian as the pack headed through the first two corners, and the Lotus driver failed to slow sufficiently to prevent himself shunting Webber into a spin. Both cars were able to continue, but headed for the pits at the end of the lap.

Almost simultaneously, Alonso was also in peril. The Ferrari driver was stuck between the cars of Raikkonen and the fast-starting Button heading into the first corner, and moved across on the former. Contact was made between the rear tyre of Alonso and Raikkonen’s front wing, immediately leading to a puncture and a terminal trip into the gravel trap at First Curve for the championship leader.

With Bruno Senna and Nico Rosberg also coming to blows amid the chaos further down the order, the Safety Car was deployed. Behind Vettel and Kobayashi, Button had ploughed his way through to third place ahead of Massa, who ostensibly followed the trail blazed by the leading McLaren. Fifth was Raikkonen, whose pace appeared not to be too severely compromised by the contact with Alonso, with Perez holding sixth ahead of Hamilton having run wide at the first corner.

As the race restarted on lap 4, Vettel wasted no time in stretching his lead: by lap 8, his cushion over Kobayashi was up to 4 seconds, and by lap 13 the gap stood at 7.5 seconds. The Japanese driver was in turn able to ease away from Button and Massa until the first round of pit-stops commenced on lap 13, where a later stop by Massa allowed him to jump ahead of both Kobayashi and Button into second place as the Brazilian’s rivals lost time in traffic.

Meanwhile, Perez relinquished sixth place to Hamilton with a mistake at the very first corner of the restart, only to regain the place two laps later with a late, bold pass at the Hairpin. The Brit would re-gain the place from Perez by dint of a slightly quicker first pit-stop, but the Mexican was clearly in no mood to defer to the man he will replace at McLaren next year. On lap 20, he attempted a repeat of his earlier pass at the Hairpin, only to get out of shape on entry to the corner and spin ignominiously into the gravel as a result.

By this stage of the race, Vettel’s lead was up to 9 seconds, and it was becoming increasingly unlikely that anybody was to deny the German his third victory of the season. With Massa pulling away from Kobayashi into a comfortable second place, the only podium position in doubt was the final one. In spite of a slightly slower second pit-stop, Button was able to close the gap from three seconds to just over one as the race entered its final phase.

Vettel ultimately took the chequered flag with over 20 seconds in hand from Massa, drawing level with the great Juan Manuel Fangio with a 24^th career victory, whilst Massa’s first podium finish since the Korean Grand Prix of two years ago looks to have assured the Brazilian of at least one more season with the Scuderia. With the passionate home fans firmly behind him, Kobayashi responded to the threat from Button excellently, delivering his first ever podium finish and only the third ever for a Japanese driver in F1 after Aguri Suzuki and Takuma Sato. Much like Massa, such a result may be instrumental in Kobayashi securing a fresh contract to remain at Sauber.

Button and Hamilton finished fourth and fifth respectively, which represented a decent return on a rather lacklustre qualifying session. The latter McLaren driver was able to secure the position with a brave defence of his position as he exited the pits – Raikkonen swept around the outside of Hamilton at First Curve as the McLaren re-joined the race track, only for Lewis to decisively dive back up the inside at the tighter second corner to claim fifth place.

Raikkonen could therefore do no more than sixth, with the Lotus version of double-DRS still yet to be given its maiden race outing. Nico Hulkenberg took advantage of the first-corner misfortunes of others to take a solid seventh place for Force India, just ahead of Pastor Maldonado who took his first points since his win at the Spanish Grand Prix five months ago. Webber, after pitting at the end of the first lap and only pitting once more thereafter, managed to salvage ninth place, with compatriot Daniel Ricciardo staying out of trouble to snatch another well-earned point for Toro Rosso.

Ricciardo was forced to defend tenth place hard from Michael Schumacher, who started on the back row of the grid after his ten-place penalty from Singapore was applied. The Mercedes driver, who announced his impending retirement from the sport at the start of the weekend, made considerable ground with an alternate strategy, and was unlucky to not claim a point for his valiant efforts. Twelfth place went to Paul di Resta, who suffered a clutch problem before the race started, finishing just ahead of the second Toro Rosso of Jean-Eric Vergne whose race was compromised by a three-place blocking penalty on Saturday.

The early contact with Rosberg, who subsequently retired, forced Senna to change his nose at the end of the first lap; coupled with a drive-through penalty for being deemed to have caused the collision, the Williams driver was consigned to a 14^th place finish ahead of Caterham driver Heikki Kovalainen. Just four seconds behind the Finn finished Timo Glock of Marussia, with Vitaly Petrov (whose progressed was impeded by a KERS failure and a penalty for ignoring blue flags) and Pedro de la Rosa rounding out the finishers.

After coming to blows with Webber at the start, Grosjean was forced to pit for a fresh nose before being handed a ten second stop-go penalty by way of punishment. Circulating well outside the points, Lotus elected to retire the car to preserve the gearbox a few laps shy of the finish. Also failing to see the chequered flag were Charles Pic, whose Marussia suffered engine failure, and Narain Karthikeyan after his HRT sustained floor damage.

Vettel’s victory was very much reminiscent of his runaway successes of 2011, and his determination to become only the sport’s third driver to secure a hat-trick of titles will be more than ever. Alonso was nothing if not stoic when asked to reflect on his retirement post-race, despite now holding a slender lead of just four points, but the race pace demonstrated by Massa however means the title fight is still wide open. Pending updates from McLaren and Lotus mean neither Lewis Hamilton nor Kimi Raikkonen are quite out of contention yet, Suzuka reminding us that the complexion of the title fight can change in an instant.

Japanese Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

With just six rounds left in this year’s championship, the upcoming double-header – comprised of the Japanese and Korean Grand Prix – will be instrumental in deciding which drivers are going to be in a position to challenge points leader Fernando Alonso as the season finale looms.

The declining interest in F1 in Japan in general is belied by the army of legion of fans who make the annual pilgrimage to the Suzuka Circuit, who rank among some of the most passionate anywhere in the world. Over the years, they’ve been treated to some epic confrontations, many of which have decided the title: Senna and Prost’s infamous coming-togethers in 1989-90, crowning victories for Damon Hill, Mika Hakkinen and Michael Schumacher as well as Kimi Raikkonen’s tremendous charge through the field in 2005 ranking as some of the highlights.

The circuit itself is a real test of man and machine, being one of the longest on the calendar at 3.6 miles. The seemingly-endless switchbacks of the first sector of the lap demand abundant front-end grip, whilst corners like Degner and the mighty 130R are a true test of a driver’s commitment and rear-end stability. The DRS zone, as per last year, is to be found on the main straight on the approach to the imaginatively-titled ‘First Curve’, with hard and soft compound Pirellis on offer to make for some intriguing strategy options.

Fresh from victory two weeks ago at Singapore, Sebastian Vettel has taken over from Lewis Hamilton as Alonso’s closest title rival. The Red Bull should be at home around Suzuka, whilst the German himself can boast two victories at the circuit in 2009 and 2010 to go with his title-clinching second place last year. A third Japanese victory for Vettel this weekend would underline his title credentials, with the gap between himself and Alonso standing at 29 points, whilst teammate Mark Webber is all but out of the running barring a spectacular return to the form that has been absent since his Silverstone victory back in July.

McLaren is facing something of a quandry as far as its title ambitions are concerned. Whilst a bid for the constructors’ title that has eluded Woking since 1998 appears to be well on course, considering the team has taken the last four pole positions, their prospects for the drivers’ title are somewhat more shaky. Their drivers Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button are 52 and 75 points adrift of Alonso respectively, which puts a team renowned for their reluctance to use team orders in a difficult position – do they ask Button to play a supporting role to Hamilton at this stage, or continue to allow their drivers to race freely?

Matters of course are further complicated by the recent announcement that Hamilton will be driving for Mercedes next season, which would lessen still the willingness of the team to give up on the title ambitions of Button, who is believed to be contracted to McLaren until the end of 2014. There’s no reason to suggest that McLaren won’t be firmly in contention for a fourth victory in five races at Suzuka; Button will no doubt be hoping for a repeat of his 2011 success whilst Hamilton will be equally eager to strike Suzuka from the list of tracks at which he is yet to win – though he did triumph at a very wet Fuji back in 2007.

With the exception of Spa, Alonso has finished in the top five of every race since the Spanish Grand Prix five long months ago. In spite of his points cushion, the double-champion has re-iterated the need for Ferrari to improve the car if he is to remain in charge of title proceedings; a rear wing upgrade that was abandoned during practice at Singapore as it failed to deliver the expected performance gains is something Maranello can ill-afford a repeat of. Suzuka hasn’t been kind to the Italian squad in recent years either, their last victory being back in 2004 courtesy of Michael Schumacher.

Whilst Alonso is fighting for his championship, teammate Massa is potentially fighting for his F1 career. Sergio Perez’s move to McLaren in place of the Mercedes-bound Hamilton theoretically boosted Massa’s chances of being retained by Ferrari for an eighth consecutive season, but an announcement has not been forthcoming as the team allegedly continues to evaluate replacements in the form of Force India drivers Paul Di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg. Thus, a top-six finish for Massa might just tip the balance in his favour as Ferrari seek to defend third place in the constructors’ standings from Lotus.

In their bid to overhaul Ferrari, Lotus are slated to introduce their eagerly-anticipated version of the ‘double-DRS’ device pioneered by Mercedes this weekend. Such an upgrade would go a long way to rectifying the team’s performances in qualifying, which has been something of an Achilles’ heel for the Enstone-based squad throughout the year. Raikkonen is of course no stranger to victory at Suzuka, having been at the centre of the incredible 2005 race in which the Finn charged to victory from 17^th on the grid. The effectiveness of the Lotus upgrades (if they are indeed introduced here) will likely determine whether Raikkonen has any realistic chance of remaining in the title fight.

On paper, Sauber ought to be another team in with a chance of upsetting the front-runners. The car has tended to perform well when the hard compound tyre has been in use (think Perez’s second place at Monza), whilst the track has a fairly similar mix of corners to Spa, where the Swiss cars lined up second and fourth on the grid. The team is running out of time if they are to catch their rivals Mercedes in the constructors’, who may be expected to struggle somewhat at this style of track. Schumacher, who has the added handicap of a ten-place grid penalty for his shunt with Jean-Vergne at Singapore, will therefore have to muster all the experience of his six Suzuka victories to score points this weekend.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Alonso, 5. Perez, 6. Webber, 7. Grosjean, 8. Button (pen) 9. Massa, 10. Kobayashi

Race Prediction

1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Alonso, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Button, 6. Perez, 7. Grosjean, 8. Kobayashi, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Rosberg

Hamilton has been on blistering form as of late, and now the question of for whom he’ll be driving next year has been resolved he should be fully focused upon ending his McLaren career on a high. I’ve therefore backed the Brit to do the double, closely followed by Vettel on both Saturday and Sunday. Alonso will find his way on the podium to minimise the damage caused to his points lead, with Raikkonen just behind after a much-improved qualifying. Perez will put in another eye-catching performance to finish sixth, just behind future teammate Button who is facing a five-place gearbox penalty. Romain Grosjean will have a sensible drive ahead of Kamui Kobayashi, who’ll be helped along by the fervour of the home fans, with the two Nicos Hulkenberg and Rosberg rounding out the points finishers. No sign of Webber or Massa – I sense that a Ferrari front wing could well converge with a Red Bull rear tyre at the Casio Triangle.