The Korean International Circuit which plays host to Sunday’s
race, despite having only been constructed in 2010, has a troubled history. In
fact, this may prove to be Formula One’s final visit to the Hermann
Tilke-designed track, as the low profile of the sport in Korea has led to
difficulties in filling the grandstands and consequently financial strife.
Despite that, the circuit itself is an interesting proposition, combining the
longest straight on the calendar – at 1.2km long – with traditional Tilke-style
tight corners, a few fast sweeping bends and a street circuit-esque segment at
the end of the lap.
The long straight does place something of a premium on solid
top-end speed, although strong traction and rear stability are also essential
for the remainder of the lap. Tyre strategy will likewise be critical with the
two softest compound of Pirelli tyre, the super-soft and soft, on offer.
Whether there’ll be a repeat of the blistering some teams were suffering from in
Japan is yet to be seen, although temperatures are expected to be slightly
cooler. The DRS zone has been lengthened this year in comparison to last in
order to facilitate more overtaking at the turn 3 hairpin, although turns 1 and
4 may also provide some action.
On paper, Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel scarcely look as if
they can lose this one. The reigning champion was victorious at this circuit
last year, and was firmly in command in 2010 until engine failure allowed
Fernando Alonso to ascend the top step of the podium instead. Considering the
German is also fresh from the first back-to-back wins of the season, not to
mention pole position and fastest lap at Suzuka, and a bet against Vettel is
looking very foolhardy indeed.
However, reality may differ somewhat from such a foregone
conclusion. Red Bull is traditionally among the poorest cars through the speed
traps, a major hindrance when defending your position along the calendar’s
longest straight, and the track layout is more akin to Singapore than Suzuka –
where McLaren (at least with Lewis Hamilton in the cockpit) appeared to have
the edge over Vettel.
Hamilton may have not really been in contention at Suzuka,
but a poor set-up during qualifying and a suspension problem during the race exaggerated
the Brit’s problems. The evidence therefore suggests that Korea should be a
great deal closer than Suzuka was, with a resumption of Singapore’s head-to-head
battle between Hamilton and Vettel a likely scenario.
Mark Webber may also prove a dark horse, as the Australian
showed some strong race pace at Japan having been shunted out of contention for
a podium courtesy of Romain Grosjean before the race had barely begun. Jenson
Button can’t be ruled out either, as he was keeping Vettel honest during the
latter half of Singapore after the sister McLaren of Hamilton expired.
If Alonso does indeed lose the title to Vettel (or any other
driver, indeed) come Brazil, Suzuka will probably be regarded as the point at
which the title was lost. His move across the bows of Kimi Raikkonen on the
approach to the first corner was an uncharacteristic error from this season’s
most consistent performer, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Lest we forget, however, Alonso does still lead the
championship, even if by just four points. Ferrari will however, needless to
say, need to considerably improve the F2012 if their star driver is to remain
in command of his own destiny. A good strategy could salvage a podium this
weekend if any of the McLarens or Red Bulls hit trouble, but this weekend is
likely to prove a damage limitation excercise for Spain’s finest.
With some major updates being brought to the Lotus this
weekend, Korea will decide whether Raikkonen will be able to stay in touch with
the other title contenders. The Finn has barely scraped inside the top six at
the last three races with the Enstone-built car having ostensibly fallen behind
its rivals in the development race, but a return to the sort of form the team
demonstrated at Hungary – the last time Raikkonen was on the podium – is a
possibility if the upgrades work as hoped.
Korea is also going to be pivotal for the man in the other
side of the Lotus garage, if for rather different reasons. Grosjean has undergone an enormous amount of criticism for his eighth early
collision of the year (not all of which were his fault, it should be added),
with Webber even labelling Grosjean a ‘nutcase’ post-race. The 2011 GP2
champion has to prove once and for all he can race cleanly if he is to silence
the intensifying calls from some quarters for him to be dropped.
The Mercedes cars should be at home down the straights at
Yeongam, whilst a couple of the Force Indias and Williams drivers may feature
in the scrap for points as they did at Singapore. It will also be interesting
to see whether Kamui Kobayashi can build on the momentum generated by his
excellent third place finish on home turf, a race in which he put teammate and future
McLaren driver Sergio Perez to shame, as his future with the Swiss outfit is
still not clear.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Alonso, 5. Grosjean,
6. Button, 7. Raikkonen, 8. Maldonado, 9. Massa, 10. Di Resta
Race Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Alonso, 4. Webber, 5. Raikkonen,
6. Maldonado, 7. Massa, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Kobayashi, 10. Di Resta
I shall go for a slightly more adventurous prediction for a
change, and back Hamilton for a fourth victory of the season. Alonso will just
about remain the points leader, giving away three points to Vettel, who despite
taking pole could find himself in danger of being passed down the back straight
by his Mercedes-engined rival early on. Webber will have a solid drive to
fourth behind Alonso and just ahead of Raikkonen, with Maldonado putting in an
eye-catching performance for sixth. Massa will lose out to his fellow South
American and place seventh, with Kobayashi forming the meat in a Force India
sandwich in the dice for the final few points-paying positions. No sign of
Button – could McLaren unreliability strike again? – while Grosjean will fail
to finish once again, albeit not for a reason of his own making on this
occasion. Hopefully.
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