The Interlagos circuit in Sao Paulo, which plays host to
this weekend’s Brazilian Grand Prix, has been responsible for resolving numerous
title showdowns in recent times. Alonso clinched both of his two titles for
Renault here in 2005 and 2006, Kimi Raikkonen defied the odds to snatch his
sole crown for Ferrari in 2007, Lewis Hamilton turned the tide against Felipe
Massa at the very final corner of the race to steal honours at a soggy 2008
race, and Jenson Button muscled his way through the pack in 2009 to put the
icing on the cake for Brawn GP’s fairytale season.
The circuit itself can be undoubtedly classed among the
sport’s remaining ‘old school’ circuits, having hosted its first world
championship event way back in 1973. Although the track was shortened from 8km
to its current 4.3km layout was back in 1990, Interlagos can still boast
numerous challenging turns as well as some great overtaking opportunities – the
Senna ‘S’ at the start of the track being chief among them.
High temperatures and an anti-clockwise layout (contrary to
the majority of other F1 venues) make it one of the most physically demanding
events of the season for the drivers, whilst the sweeping medium-speed corners
and open hairpins will punish cars lacking front downforce. The DRS zone will,
as per 2011, be located along the back straight on the approach to turn 4,
whilst hard and medium will be the compounds on offer this weekend. Rain
however is an all-too-common occurence at Interlagos, and the forecast suggests
this year could be no exception.
As you’re probably aware, Vettel heads into this finale with
13 points in hand over Alonso. That means, quite simply, if the reigning
champion finishes fourth or better, he gets to keep the #1 plate for a third
successive season. Failing that, he can afford to finish as low as seventh if
Alonso fails to win or ninth if the Spaniard can’t manage second. If Alonso
finishes off the podium, Ferrari’s title hopes are up in smoke.
On the basis that Vettel hasn’t failed to make the top four
since his alternator-related retirement at the Italian Grand Prix, and that the
Red Bull is comfortably superior to the Ferrari in dry weather, only
unreliability or an uncharacteristic and costly mistake is going to deny the
German if it doesn’t rain. Mark Webber’s alternator failure last time out was a
timely reminder that Red Bull’s reliability this year has been far from
bullet-proof, but the Milton Keynes outfit is known to be switching to
Renault’s latest-spec alternator to ensure the gremlins that have haunted the
team at Valencia, Monza and Austin don’t strike again.
With rain a distinct possibility on both Saturday and Sunday
however, it is the Brazilian weather that is likely to give Vettel and Red Bull
their biggest headache. Alonso has been superb in the wet this year, and on the
basis of his win at Malaysia you’d be brave to bet against the Ferrari number
one standing atop the podium if the heavens do open. Not only does the rain
mask the deficiencies of the Ferrari F2012, but it makes the danger of a costly
error or strategic gaffe that much more likely for the reigning champions.
Also worth considering is the fact that Interlagos does have
the habit of throwing up some unusual results. Juan Pablo Montoya wasn’t far
off victory in 2001 in just his third ever F1 start when Jos Verstappen piled
into the back of the Colombian’s Williams shortly after being lapped. Giancarlo
Fisichella took an extremely unlikely maiden victory for a hopelessly
uncompetitive Jordan team in 2003 with the help of the weather, though
Verstappen could potentially have taken an even less likely win for Minardi
before spinning out of contention. And who would have bet on Nico Hulkenberg
putting his Williams on pole position in the wet two years ago?
This year’s showdown can essentially be considered a
role-reversal of 2010, when Ferrari arguably threw away what ought to have been
Alonso’s third title with a strategic faux
pas at Abu Dhabi. The team brought their man early for his pit-stop in a
bid to cover Webber, only for the Ferrari to get stuck behind the slower of
Renault of Vitaly Petrov, rendering Alonso powerless to stop Vettel cruising to
the win and thus the title. That was Maranello’s title to lose, and they did.
It’s a powerful reminder to Red Bull that too conservative a strategy could
prove costly.
Considering how competitive McLaren have been of late, it's likely that the silver-and-red cars will have quite an influence on the way things pan out. While Hamilton is no stranger to success at Interlagos, he’s
never finished higher than third at the Brazilian track. The 2008 champion will
be desperate to end his McLaren career on a high, and he has the momentum of
his Austin victory firmly behind him. Both Hamilton and teammate Button are
known for their wet-weather prowess, and won’t be doing any favours for the
title contenders in the race.
Massa on the other hand will very much be duty bound to help
out Alonso, who will be comforted by his teammate’s dominance at Interlagos
from 2006 to 2008 – the home favourite would have won three home Grand Prix in
a row if not for having to defer to Raikkonen’s title aspirations in 2007. Having
a competitive teammate can only be good news for Alonso, and as Austin proved
Ferrari won’t be afraid to use Massa strategically if necessary. For the
record, I wholeheartedly back the team’s decision to break the seal of Massa’s
gearbox – firstly, the championship is still on, which it may not have been if
Alonso had to start on the dirty side of the track, and secondly, Massa had a
great result regardless.
Webber should also be in a good position to assist Vettel
considering his recent form, whilst Raikkonen could also prove a factor if he can get his Lotus cat among the
McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull pigeons. Also worth keeping an eye on if it rains
will be Sergio Perez, who wasn’t far from a shock win in the wet at Malaysia
and will be eager to silence his critics in his final race before he jumps ship
to McLaren.
Speaking of final races, Brazil will be Michael Schumacher’s
307th and final F1 start before he calls time on what has been an
ultimately disappointing comeback to the sport after he previously waved
goodbye at Brazil six years ago. The pending announcement that Esteban
Gutierrez will be driving for Sauber means this weekend could potentially be
the last race for Kamui Kobayashi, whilst Bruno Senna, Heikki Kovalainen and
Vitaly Petrov are all facing uncertain futures.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Alonso, 2. Hamilton, 3. Vettel, 4. Massa, 5. Button, 6.
Webber, 7. Schumacher, 8. Raikkonen, 9. Maldonado, 10. Perez
Race Prediction
1. Alonso, 2. Hamilton, 3. Massa, 4. Button, 5. Vettel, 6.
Raikkonen, 7. Perez, 8. Schumacher, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Senna
My prediction of course rests on the assumption that the
expected rain does indeed materialise, and I will freely admit I would prefer
to see Alonso come out on top for having, for my money, done the better job
over the year considering the machinery at his disposal. Hamilton will push
Alonso all the way, leaving the outcome in doubt right until the dying stages,
with Massa taking a second podium of the season in front of his home
supporters. Button will the final man to come between the title contenders,
with Raikkonen completing a full house of race finishes in 2012 with sixth
behind a defeated Vettel. Perez will finally stem his poor run of results with
seventh ahead of Schumacher, who will make use of the wet to rise above the
limitations of his Mercedes. Hulkenberg will be dependable as ever with ninth,
whilst Senna will take the final point of the season (and possibly even his
career) on home soil.
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