Spanish Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix marks the beginning of Formula One’s European season, and may well give us our first true glimpse of how this year’s title fight is likely to pan out.

The above is true for two reasons: firstly, it’s traditionally the race where the teams first apply major upgrade packages to their cars, and for some outfits, the significance of these new parts can barely be overstated. If they have the desired effect, it could catapult them several places up the grid; if not, it will surely be tempting to all but write off the season and focus ever more resources on 2014.

Secondly, the Catalunya circuit is one of the most aero-dependent on the calendar, giving the teams a fairly good indication of where they stand relative to their rivals. Often, if the car works well in Spain, it will work well on most other tracks – out of the 22 races that have been held at the circuit since 1991, 16 times has the winning team gone on to win that year’s constructors’ championship.

This weekend’s tyre allocation consists of the hard and medium compounds, with the former having been tweaked by Pirelli since the last race in Bahrain to make it slightly more durable.  In addition, all the drivers will be given an additional set of unmarked, ‘prototype’ hard tyres in a bid to create more on-track action during Friday practice.

There will once again be two DRS zones in operation – one in the traditional location of the start/finish straight, and the other along the short back straight on the approach to the turn 10 hairpin. Despite the addition of a second zone, overtaking is likely to be much tougher than it was at China or Bahrain, mostly because of the Catalunya track’s tendency to spread out the field relatively quickly.

So far in 2013, we know that, with two pole positions apiece, Red Bull and Mercedes are strong over a single lap but struggle somewhat with tyre longevity. Ferrari and Lotus meanwhile lack that final edge in qualifying but make up for it by showing consistently strong race pace. McLaren appear to lack speed during both qualifying and the race, and are surely pinning their 2013 hopes on making serious progress this weekend.

Team manager Jonathan Neale has likened the Woking team’s struggles to those of Ferrari a year ago, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that last year’s Spanish Grand Prix marked the Italian’s team resurgence after a shaky start, with Fernando Alonso leading much of the race and coming home second to shock winner Pastor Maldonado.

While Jenson Button is already 63 points adrift of Sebastian Vettel’s championship lead, it’s hardly an insurmountable advantage if McLaren can get their act together, given that there are still 15 races to run. Button has however suggested he’s not expecting the troublesome MP4/28 to be transformed by this weekend’s updates, meaning his main focus is likely to be to re-assert himself against his upstart teammate Sergio Perez after being beaten by the Mexican in Bahrain.

The major talking point of the week has been Lotus, who yesterday lost their highly-rated technical director James Allison. Though this shouldn’t have any drastic impact on their performance in the short-term, with the Enstone team promoting Nick Chester to the role with immediate effect, it could hamper the team’s ability to keep up in the development race later in the year.

This will come as bad news for Kimi Raikkonen, who is yet to sign a deal to remain at Lotus next year. Red Bull are known to be interested in the Finn’s services, and Allison’s departure could be the catalyst for Raikkonen’s arrival at Milton Keynes and thus Mark Webber’s F1 retirement – word on the street is that the Aussie has already signed a deal to race at Le Mans with Porsche from next year.

As for Allison himself, Ferrari appears to be the Englishman’s most likely destination. The Italian team has brought along updates to Catalunya in the hope of bolstering the F138’s qualifying pace and helping Alonso to a first home win since his triumph for Renault in 2006. Avoiding the operational errors that cost the Spaniard critical points at Malaysia and Bahrain will be key to this.

Bahrain was disastrous also for Mercedes driver Nico Rosberg, whose appalling rear tyre wear saw him steadily drop back from pole position to ninth place at the chequered flag. Naturally, the team’s updates are focused on improved tyre preservation, and will be critical to the title hopes of Lewis Hamilton, who is just 27 points adrift of points leader Vettel heading into Spain.

The relatively conservative tyre allocation, combined with Red Bull’s strong aerodynamic package, should make the Anglo-Austrian team favourites for the win at Catalunya; if Vettel can qualify well and make good his escape as he did in Bahrain, a second Spanish Grand Prix victory could well be on the cards. Also a former winner at Spain, Webber could nonetheless prove a thorn in Vettel’s side if he can rediscover the form that nearly took him to victory at Malaysia.

Of the midfield teams, Williams have the most urgent need to take a step forward having not yet scored a point in 2013. There will no doubt have been some serious head-scratching at Grove considering it was this time a year ago that Maldonado took that famous victory, the team’s first in eight years. Williams are expecting their updates to bring them closer to their midfield rivals, but points still seem an unlikely prospect with Force India, Toro Rosso and Sauber all in contention for minor points placings.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Alonso, 3. Webber, 4. Hamilton, 5. Massa, 6. Rosberg, 7. Raikkonen, 8. Grosjean, 9. Button, 10. Sutil

Race Prediction

1. Alonso, 2. Vettel, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Massa, 5. Webber, 6. Button, 7. Rosberg, 8. Perez, 9. Sutil, 10. Hulkenberg

It’s easy to overlook the fact that, without the unfortunate DRS issues that plagued his car at Bahrain, Alonso could have contended for the win at Bahrain. Bearing that in mind, I’m plumping for the Spaniard to take his second home win in front of his adoring fans, with Vettel consolidating his points lead with second place. 

Raikkonen will make up ground due to superior tyre preservation, albeit not enough to challenge for victory, with Massa and Webber rounding out the top five. 

McLaren will bank a solid double-points finish, even if their step forward is not as pronounced as their drivers would have hoped. Rosberg will come home a solid seventh, Sutil ninth in another good outing for Force India, and Hulkenberg will make it four Germans in the points with the revised Sauber. Hamilton and Grosjean are both overdue some bad luck – Spain could therefore be a bad weekend for both.