Korean Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

Whilst the outcome of last weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix doesn’t exactly bode well for those hoping for a thrilling finale to a so far unforgettable season (and who doesn’t?), this weekend’s encounter at Korea could well turn things around just as easily as the title fight reaches boiling point.

The Korean International Circuit which plays host to Sunday’s race, despite having only been constructed in 2010, has a troubled history. In fact, this may prove to be Formula One’s final visit to the Hermann Tilke-designed track, as the low profile of the sport in Korea has led to difficulties in filling the grandstands and consequently financial strife. Despite that, the circuit itself is an interesting proposition, combining the longest straight on the calendar – at 1.2km long – with traditional Tilke-style tight corners, a few fast sweeping bends and a street circuit-esque segment at the end of the lap.

The long straight does place something of a premium on solid top-end speed, although strong traction and rear stability are also essential for the remainder of the lap. Tyre strategy will likewise be critical with the two softest compound of Pirelli tyre, the super-soft and soft, on offer. Whether there’ll be a repeat of the blistering some teams were suffering from in Japan is yet to be seen, although temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler. The DRS zone has been lengthened this year in comparison to last in order to facilitate more overtaking at the turn 3 hairpin, although turns 1 and 4 may also provide some action.

On paper, Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel scarcely look as if they can lose this one. The reigning champion was victorious at this circuit last year, and was firmly in command in 2010 until engine failure allowed Fernando Alonso to ascend the top step of the podium instead. Considering the German is also fresh from the first back-to-back wins of the season, not to mention pole position and fastest lap at Suzuka, and a bet against Vettel is looking very foolhardy indeed.

However, reality may differ somewhat from such a foregone conclusion. Red Bull is traditionally among the poorest cars through the speed traps, a major hindrance when defending your position along the calendar’s longest straight, and the track layout is more akin to Singapore than Suzuka – where McLaren (at least with Lewis Hamilton in the cockpit) appeared to have the edge over Vettel.

Hamilton may have not really been in contention at Suzuka, but a poor set-up during qualifying and a suspension problem during the race exaggerated the Brit’s problems. The evidence therefore suggests that Korea should be a great deal closer than Suzuka was, with a resumption of Singapore’s head-to-head battle between Hamilton and Vettel a likely scenario.

Mark Webber may also prove a dark horse, as the Australian showed some strong race pace at Japan having been shunted out of contention for a podium courtesy of Romain Grosjean before the race had barely begun. Jenson Button can’t be ruled out either, as he was keeping Vettel honest during the latter half of Singapore after the sister McLaren of Hamilton expired.

If Alonso does indeed lose the title to Vettel (or any other driver, indeed) come Brazil, Suzuka will probably be regarded as the point at which the title was lost. His move across the bows of Kimi Raikkonen on the approach to the first corner was an uncharacteristic error from this season’s most consistent performer, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time.

Lest we forget, however, Alonso does still lead the championship, even if by just four points. Ferrari will however, needless to say, need to considerably improve the F2012 if their star driver is to remain in command of his own destiny. A good strategy could salvage a podium this weekend if any of the McLarens or Red Bulls hit trouble, but this weekend is likely to prove a damage limitation excercise for Spain’s finest.

With some major updates being brought to the Lotus this weekend, Korea will decide whether Raikkonen will be able to stay in touch with the other title contenders. The Finn has barely scraped inside the top six at the last three races with the Enstone-built car having ostensibly fallen behind its rivals in the development race, but a return to the sort of form the team demonstrated at Hungary – the last time Raikkonen was on the podium – is a possibility if the upgrades work as hoped.

Korea is also going to be pivotal for the man in the other side of the Lotus garage, if for rather different reasons. Grosjean has undergone an enormous amount of criticism for his eighth early collision of the year (not all of which were his fault, it should be added), with Webber even labelling Grosjean a ‘nutcase’ post-race. The 2011 GP2 champion has to prove once and for all he can race cleanly if he is to silence the intensifying calls from some quarters for him to be dropped.

The Mercedes cars should be at home down the straights at Yeongam, whilst a couple of the Force Indias and Williams drivers may feature in the scrap for points as they did at Singapore. It will also be interesting to see whether Kamui Kobayashi can build on the momentum generated by his excellent third place finish on home turf, a race in which he put teammate and future McLaren driver Sergio Perez to shame, as his future with the Swiss outfit is still not clear.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Alonso, 5. Grosjean, 6. Button, 7. Raikkonen, 8. Maldonado, 9. Massa, 10. Di Resta

Race Prediction

1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Alonso, 4. Webber, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Maldonado, 7. Massa, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Kobayashi, 10. Di Resta

I shall go for a slightly more adventurous prediction for a change, and back Hamilton for a fourth victory of the season. Alonso will just about remain the points leader, giving away three points to Vettel, who despite taking pole could find himself in danger of being passed down the back straight by his Mercedes-engined rival early on. Webber will have a solid drive to fourth behind Alonso and just ahead of Raikkonen, with Maldonado putting in an eye-catching performance for sixth. Massa will lose out to his fellow South American and place seventh, with Kobayashi forming the meat in a Force India sandwich in the dice for the final few points-paying positions. No sign of Button – could McLaren unreliability strike again? – while Grosjean will fail to finish once again, albeit not for a reason of his own making on this occasion. Hopefully.

Japanese Grand Prix 2012 - Report

Sebastian Vettel became the first back-to-back race winner of 2012 in an imperious display at the Japanese Grand Prix. Starting from pole position, the German led throughout and is now just four points behind points leader Fernando Alonso as the Ferrari driver retired at the first corner of the race. Felipe Massa took advantage of the situation to claim his first podium in two years, whilst Kamui Kobayashi made it race to remember for the crowd by claiming an excellent third place on home soil.

Red Bull clearly appeared to be the car to beat from the very outset, Vettel and teammate Mark Webber locking out the front row between them on Saturday. Jenson Button was the closest challenger to the Milton Keynes cars, but a five-place gearbox penalty meant he would start the race from eighth. Benefitting were the Saubers, Kobayashi lining up third and teammate Sergio Perez in fifth just behind Lotus driver Romain Grosjean, whilst Alonso would have to be content with sixth in a difficult session. Lewis Hamilton was also struggling with set-up issues, and could do no better than ninth place.

Vettel made the perfect getaway as the lights went out on Sunday, with Kobayashi getting a great launch from third position to slot into second place behind the Red Bull. Webber was conversely somewhat slower off the mark, which would end up proving costly – Grosjean was right behind the Australian as the pack headed through the first two corners, and the Lotus driver failed to slow sufficiently to prevent himself shunting Webber into a spin. Both cars were able to continue, but headed for the pits at the end of the lap.

Almost simultaneously, Alonso was also in peril. The Ferrari driver was stuck between the cars of Raikkonen and the fast-starting Button heading into the first corner, and moved across on the former. Contact was made between the rear tyre of Alonso and Raikkonen’s front wing, immediately leading to a puncture and a terminal trip into the gravel trap at First Curve for the championship leader.

With Bruno Senna and Nico Rosberg also coming to blows amid the chaos further down the order, the Safety Car was deployed. Behind Vettel and Kobayashi, Button had ploughed his way through to third place ahead of Massa, who ostensibly followed the trail blazed by the leading McLaren. Fifth was Raikkonen, whose pace appeared not to be too severely compromised by the contact with Alonso, with Perez holding sixth ahead of Hamilton having run wide at the first corner.

As the race restarted on lap 4, Vettel wasted no time in stretching his lead: by lap 8, his cushion over Kobayashi was up to 4 seconds, and by lap 13 the gap stood at 7.5 seconds. The Japanese driver was in turn able to ease away from Button and Massa until the first round of pit-stops commenced on lap 13, where a later stop by Massa allowed him to jump ahead of both Kobayashi and Button into second place as the Brazilian’s rivals lost time in traffic.

Meanwhile, Perez relinquished sixth place to Hamilton with a mistake at the very first corner of the restart, only to regain the place two laps later with a late, bold pass at the Hairpin. The Brit would re-gain the place from Perez by dint of a slightly quicker first pit-stop, but the Mexican was clearly in no mood to defer to the man he will replace at McLaren next year. On lap 20, he attempted a repeat of his earlier pass at the Hairpin, only to get out of shape on entry to the corner and spin ignominiously into the gravel as a result.

By this stage of the race, Vettel’s lead was up to 9 seconds, and it was becoming increasingly unlikely that anybody was to deny the German his third victory of the season. With Massa pulling away from Kobayashi into a comfortable second place, the only podium position in doubt was the final one. In spite of a slightly slower second pit-stop, Button was able to close the gap from three seconds to just over one as the race entered its final phase.

Vettel ultimately took the chequered flag with over 20 seconds in hand from Massa, drawing level with the great Juan Manuel Fangio with a 24^th career victory, whilst Massa’s first podium finish since the Korean Grand Prix of two years ago looks to have assured the Brazilian of at least one more season with the Scuderia. With the passionate home fans firmly behind him, Kobayashi responded to the threat from Button excellently, delivering his first ever podium finish and only the third ever for a Japanese driver in F1 after Aguri Suzuki and Takuma Sato. Much like Massa, such a result may be instrumental in Kobayashi securing a fresh contract to remain at Sauber.

Button and Hamilton finished fourth and fifth respectively, which represented a decent return on a rather lacklustre qualifying session. The latter McLaren driver was able to secure the position with a brave defence of his position as he exited the pits – Raikkonen swept around the outside of Hamilton at First Curve as the McLaren re-joined the race track, only for Lewis to decisively dive back up the inside at the tighter second corner to claim fifth place.

Raikkonen could therefore do no more than sixth, with the Lotus version of double-DRS still yet to be given its maiden race outing. Nico Hulkenberg took advantage of the first-corner misfortunes of others to take a solid seventh place for Force India, just ahead of Pastor Maldonado who took his first points since his win at the Spanish Grand Prix five months ago. Webber, after pitting at the end of the first lap and only pitting once more thereafter, managed to salvage ninth place, with compatriot Daniel Ricciardo staying out of trouble to snatch another well-earned point for Toro Rosso.

Ricciardo was forced to defend tenth place hard from Michael Schumacher, who started on the back row of the grid after his ten-place penalty from Singapore was applied. The Mercedes driver, who announced his impending retirement from the sport at the start of the weekend, made considerable ground with an alternate strategy, and was unlucky to not claim a point for his valiant efforts. Twelfth place went to Paul di Resta, who suffered a clutch problem before the race started, finishing just ahead of the second Toro Rosso of Jean-Eric Vergne whose race was compromised by a three-place blocking penalty on Saturday.

The early contact with Rosberg, who subsequently retired, forced Senna to change his nose at the end of the first lap; coupled with a drive-through penalty for being deemed to have caused the collision, the Williams driver was consigned to a 14^th place finish ahead of Caterham driver Heikki Kovalainen. Just four seconds behind the Finn finished Timo Glock of Marussia, with Vitaly Petrov (whose progressed was impeded by a KERS failure and a penalty for ignoring blue flags) and Pedro de la Rosa rounding out the finishers.

After coming to blows with Webber at the start, Grosjean was forced to pit for a fresh nose before being handed a ten second stop-go penalty by way of punishment. Circulating well outside the points, Lotus elected to retire the car to preserve the gearbox a few laps shy of the finish. Also failing to see the chequered flag were Charles Pic, whose Marussia suffered engine failure, and Narain Karthikeyan after his HRT sustained floor damage.

Vettel’s victory was very much reminiscent of his runaway successes of 2011, and his determination to become only the sport’s third driver to secure a hat-trick of titles will be more than ever. Alonso was nothing if not stoic when asked to reflect on his retirement post-race, despite now holding a slender lead of just four points, but the race pace demonstrated by Massa however means the title fight is still wide open. Pending updates from McLaren and Lotus mean neither Lewis Hamilton nor Kimi Raikkonen are quite out of contention yet, Suzuka reminding us that the complexion of the title fight can change in an instant.

Japanese Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

With just six rounds left in this year’s championship, the upcoming double-header – comprised of the Japanese and Korean Grand Prix – will be instrumental in deciding which drivers are going to be in a position to challenge points leader Fernando Alonso as the season finale looms.

The declining interest in F1 in Japan in general is belied by the army of legion of fans who make the annual pilgrimage to the Suzuka Circuit, who rank among some of the most passionate anywhere in the world. Over the years, they’ve been treated to some epic confrontations, many of which have decided the title: Senna and Prost’s infamous coming-togethers in 1989-90, crowning victories for Damon Hill, Mika Hakkinen and Michael Schumacher as well as Kimi Raikkonen’s tremendous charge through the field in 2005 ranking as some of the highlights.

The circuit itself is a real test of man and machine, being one of the longest on the calendar at 3.6 miles. The seemingly-endless switchbacks of the first sector of the lap demand abundant front-end grip, whilst corners like Degner and the mighty 130R are a true test of a driver’s commitment and rear-end stability. The DRS zone, as per last year, is to be found on the main straight on the approach to the imaginatively-titled ‘First Curve’, with hard and soft compound Pirellis on offer to make for some intriguing strategy options.

Fresh from victory two weeks ago at Singapore, Sebastian Vettel has taken over from Lewis Hamilton as Alonso’s closest title rival. The Red Bull should be at home around Suzuka, whilst the German himself can boast two victories at the circuit in 2009 and 2010 to go with his title-clinching second place last year. A third Japanese victory for Vettel this weekend would underline his title credentials, with the gap between himself and Alonso standing at 29 points, whilst teammate Mark Webber is all but out of the running barring a spectacular return to the form that has been absent since his Silverstone victory back in July.

McLaren is facing something of a quandry as far as its title ambitions are concerned. Whilst a bid for the constructors’ title that has eluded Woking since 1998 appears to be well on course, considering the team has taken the last four pole positions, their prospects for the drivers’ title are somewhat more shaky. Their drivers Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button are 52 and 75 points adrift of Alonso respectively, which puts a team renowned for their reluctance to use team orders in a difficult position – do they ask Button to play a supporting role to Hamilton at this stage, or continue to allow their drivers to race freely?

Matters of course are further complicated by the recent announcement that Hamilton will be driving for Mercedes next season, which would lessen still the willingness of the team to give up on the title ambitions of Button, who is believed to be contracted to McLaren until the end of 2014. There’s no reason to suggest that McLaren won’t be firmly in contention for a fourth victory in five races at Suzuka; Button will no doubt be hoping for a repeat of his 2011 success whilst Hamilton will be equally eager to strike Suzuka from the list of tracks at which he is yet to win – though he did triumph at a very wet Fuji back in 2007.

With the exception of Spa, Alonso has finished in the top five of every race since the Spanish Grand Prix five long months ago. In spite of his points cushion, the double-champion has re-iterated the need for Ferrari to improve the car if he is to remain in charge of title proceedings; a rear wing upgrade that was abandoned during practice at Singapore as it failed to deliver the expected performance gains is something Maranello can ill-afford a repeat of. Suzuka hasn’t been kind to the Italian squad in recent years either, their last victory being back in 2004 courtesy of Michael Schumacher.

Whilst Alonso is fighting for his championship, teammate Massa is potentially fighting for his F1 career. Sergio Perez’s move to McLaren in place of the Mercedes-bound Hamilton theoretically boosted Massa’s chances of being retained by Ferrari for an eighth consecutive season, but an announcement has not been forthcoming as the team allegedly continues to evaluate replacements in the form of Force India drivers Paul Di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg. Thus, a top-six finish for Massa might just tip the balance in his favour as Ferrari seek to defend third place in the constructors’ standings from Lotus.

In their bid to overhaul Ferrari, Lotus are slated to introduce their eagerly-anticipated version of the ‘double-DRS’ device pioneered by Mercedes this weekend. Such an upgrade would go a long way to rectifying the team’s performances in qualifying, which has been something of an Achilles’ heel for the Enstone-based squad throughout the year. Raikkonen is of course no stranger to victory at Suzuka, having been at the centre of the incredible 2005 race in which the Finn charged to victory from 17^th on the grid. The effectiveness of the Lotus upgrades (if they are indeed introduced here) will likely determine whether Raikkonen has any realistic chance of remaining in the title fight.

On paper, Sauber ought to be another team in with a chance of upsetting the front-runners. The car has tended to perform well when the hard compound tyre has been in use (think Perez’s second place at Monza), whilst the track has a fairly similar mix of corners to Spa, where the Swiss cars lined up second and fourth on the grid. The team is running out of time if they are to catch their rivals Mercedes in the constructors’, who may be expected to struggle somewhat at this style of track. Schumacher, who has the added handicap of a ten-place grid penalty for his shunt with Jean-Vergne at Singapore, will therefore have to muster all the experience of his six Suzuka victories to score points this weekend.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Alonso, 5. Perez, 6. Webber, 7. Grosjean, 8. Button (pen) 9. Massa, 10. Kobayashi

Race Prediction

1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Alonso, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Button, 6. Perez, 7. Grosjean, 8. Kobayashi, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Rosberg

Hamilton has been on blistering form as of late, and now the question of for whom he’ll be driving next year has been resolved he should be fully focused upon ending his McLaren career on a high. I’ve therefore backed the Brit to do the double, closely followed by Vettel on both Saturday and Sunday. Alonso will find his way on the podium to minimise the damage caused to his points lead, with Raikkonen just behind after a much-improved qualifying. Perez will put in another eye-catching performance to finish sixth, just behind future teammate Button who is facing a five-place gearbox penalty. Romain Grosjean will have a sensible drive ahead of Kamui Kobayashi, who’ll be helped along by the fervour of the home fans, with the two Nicos Hulkenberg and Rosberg rounding out the points finishers. No sign of Webber or Massa – I sense that a Ferrari front wing could well converge with a Red Bull rear tyre at the Casio Triangle.