7 March 2015

A 2015 F1 Season Preview (of sorts)

Anyone who watched last night's F1 Show on Sky Sports may have noticed an oddly familiar face lurking in the studio audience behind Simon Lazenby, Natalie Pinkham and co. That's because I was fortunate enough to attend the first recording of the new series at the Sky Studios in Brentford alongside my good friend Dougie Wilson, as evidenced by the below picture (I'm to the left of the fellow in the Lotus top, for the avoidance of doubt):


I should confess at this stage that I am in fact not a regular F1 Show viewer - I would describe it as perfectly decent, but hardly essential viewing for the motor racing fan, particularly later in the year when there are fewer obvious topics for discussion and when there is a tendency to rely more heavily on special guests and rather esoteric feature pieces.

But, being the first show of the year, there was happily much to discuss on this occasion, ranging from which teams shone in winter testing to the mystery surrounding Fernando Alonso's enforced lay-off from the season-opening Australian Grand Prix in a week's time and the recent resurrection of the Manor (née Marussia) squad. More on all that later, though.

For a regular viewer of Sky's F1 coverage, watching on as the presenters did their thing was something of a surreal experience, similar to that of watching Grand Prix cars in the flesh for the first time. It's a reminder that, for all the glitz and glamour of the F1 paddock, those fronting the coverage are really just ordinary human beings like you or I.

Not only that, but they are genuinely pleasant people, perhaps unsurprisingly given the nature of their work. Lazenby and Pinkham, along with the affable Johnny Herbert, made a real effort to interact with the audience both before and after the show, as well as during the ad breaks and VTs, making the whole business of standing up for an hour in a television studio a strangely enjoyable experience.

Indeed, after the show, I got to have a brief chat with Pinkham - I asked who her favourite drivers to interview were; Daniel Ricciardo, Valtteri Bottas and Jenson Button were the three names I got in return. When I asked whether there were any she was less keen on speaking to, she said there weren't, and that extracting a response from the famously laconic Kimi Raikkonen was a fun challenge!


Regrettably, the picture I had taken with her has to rank among the worst there's ever been of me - eyes shut, mouth agog and double chin in full view. A similar fate befell me when I bumped into Martin Brundle in the Monza pitlane last September, so perhaps I have some sort of allergy to Sky Sports presenters.

Moving swiftly on, Alonso's testing crash and its aftermath have understandably dominated the motor racing headlines in recent days. Though next weekend's curtain-raiser will be all the poorer without the Spaniard making his hotly anticipated McLaren-Honda bow, missing the race is unquestionably the right course of action, given the well documented risks associated with sustaining a second concussion so soon after the first.

That said, I still can't help but get the feeling that there's something amiss about the whole saga. Question marks remain over whether Alonso was indeed conscious at the time of his impact with the barriers at the Circuit de Catalunya, and it's not hard to see why McLaren would be keen to ensure Honda is spared the mortifying embarrassment of having to admit fault for the accident that has benched the team's multi-million dollar star signing.


Either way, McLaren's handling of the situation has been poor, much like its protracted dithering over finalising its 2015 drivers over the winter, with the Woking outfit seemingly contradicting their own press statements regarding Alonso's condition. Here's hoping that the FIA's investigation into the incident is able to shed some light where McLaren is seemingly unwilling to.

There's a certain irony in the fact that the team will be running the same line-up in Melbourne as last year, as Kevin Magnussen fills the breach alongside Button. For the Dane, it's an invaluable chance to show McLaren what they will be missing this season, assuming Alonso returns for Malaysia as expected, and perhaps to showcase himself to other potential suitors for 2016, given that Alonso and Button are both under contract for next season.

The other big story of the past couple of weeks has been the revival of the Manor team, a rare piece of good news that ensures that there will be 20, rather than just 18, cars on the grid in Australia. The man F1 fans have to thank for this is energy mogul and self-confessed petrolhead Stephen Fitzpatrick, who has reportedly invested £30m into the team known last year as Marussia to get the operation back on its feet.

The team's chief executive Graeme Lowdon - a true racer if ever there was one - and its only confirmed driver as of the time of writing, Will Stevens, were both present at the F1 Show recording, and I managed to share a word with the latter after the show. At least the picture I had with him wasn't quite as repulsive as my snap with Pinkham.



Stevens has spent the last three seasons in Formula Renault 3.5, in which his record would be best described as solid rather than 
spectacular, but proved on his one-off appearance for Caterham last year at Abu Dhabi that he's a perfectly competent operator behind the wheel of an F1 car. Asked how he found the transition from FR3.5, he remarked that the step up in power was the main difference, and that the cornering speeds were similar given the Caterham's woeful aerodynamic package.

The 23-year-old wouldn't be drawn on the identity of his Manor team-mate, although one name I mooted to him was former GP2 champion Fabio Leimer, who had been due to race in the Japanese-based Super Formula this season before splitting with his team yesterday. Stevens, who admitted that 2015 is likely to be largely a learning year, struck me as quite an intense and single-minded character, traits that will serve him well in the F1 paddock.

While Manor is likely to languish at the bottom of this year's constructors' table, running a modified version of last year's Marussia to begin with, winter testing suggests that Mercedes will almost certainly be the runaway victor once more this season. Nico Rosberg's best time at Catalunya was three tenths quicker than the nearest non-Mercedes, Bottas, despite being set on soft compound tyres and not the faster super-soft compound like the Williams driver.

That means fans are most probably in for another head-to-head battle between defending champion Lewis Hamilton and Rosberg as far as the drivers' crown is concerned. At 4/6, the Brit begins the season as heavy favourite to take a third title, but Sky Deutschland's Tanja Bauer advised the F1 Show audience not to write off the hopes of Rosberg, who, as she pointed out, should be stronger now with the experience of a title battle under his belt.


Testing suggests that the teams most likely to begin the year as best of the rest are Williams and Ferrari, whose James Allison-penned contender already looks to be a major step forward. Sebastian Vettel seems at home with his new employers, having regained his trademark boyish charm that he lacked during a subdued 2014, while Raikkonen, who struggled badly last year with a car lacking in front-end grip, also appears happier with his mount and will no doubt be eager to silence his critics.

Red Bull meanwhile still seem to be lagging somewhat, in no small part because of the travails of engine supplier Renault, but it should be remembered that Red Bull still bagged a (later disallowed) second-place finish following a dismal winter this time a year ago. What's more, Adrian Newey may no longer be involved with the Milton Keynes-based team on a day-to-day basis, but the RB11 still bears his hallmarks, and the design guru will doubtless have a bearing on its development.

Some pundits reckon there's plenty of potential locked away inside the aggressive Peter Prodromou-influenced McLaren, but it will be up to Honda to catch up with its rivals if the chassis' latent speed is to be realised. Winter testing will have come as a major wake-up call for a team that was talking up its chances of challenging Mercedes for Grand Prix wins off the bat, as well as a sober reminder that this is a long-term project and that both constructor and engine supplier will need to be patient.

As for the rest, the new Mercedes-powered Lotus looks solid, and should be a regular points contender, while the respective offerings from Toro Rosso and Sauber also both appear stronger than their predecessors. The team that could struggle most initially is Force India, which, owing to financial problems, only managed to complete two-and-a-half days of running with its 2015 car over the winter, but its Mercedes powerplant should help to mitigate their competitive slide to a degree.

Bearing in mind all of the above, here are my predictions for the top 10 in Melbourne, as well as for this year's championship:

Melbourne predictions: 1. Hamilton, 2. Rosberg, 3. Bottas, 4. Vettel, 5. Ricciardo, 6. Massa, 7. Raikkonen, 8. Grosjean, 9. Kvyat, 10. Verstappen

Season predictions: 1. Hamilton, 2. Rosberg, 3. Ricciardo, 4. Vettel, 5. Bottas, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Massa, 9. Kvyat, 10. Grosjean

As much as I would like to think that this season will prove at least as competitive as last year's titanic tussle between the Mercedes duo, I suspect Hamilton may just be too strong for Rosberg this year, especially if he is able to improve the qualifying form that appeared to desert him at times last season.

Ricciardo's undoubted class allied to an improving Red Bull will be enough for the Aussie to overhaul Vettel for third place, while Williams will lose ground towards the end of the year, limiting Bottas to fifth ahead of compatriot Raikkonen, who will be closer to his team-mate's pace than he was last year.

After a slow start to the year, Alonso will gradually work his way up to seventh in the final standings, with a couple of podium finishes to his credit, pipping Massa and Kvyat. Grosjean will round out the top 10 just ahead of Button, the Brit finding the task of matching his fellow McLaren driver tougher than expected.