Malaysian Grand Prix 2012 - Report

Fernando Alonso took a wholly unexpected victory in a rain-affected Malaysian Grand Prix as Sergio Perez took an incredible second position for Sauber in a near-faultless performance. Pole-sitter Lewis Hamilton took the final podium position as his teammate Jenson Button experienced a disastrous afternoon in the sister McLaren.

Hamilton once again held the edge over teammate Button during qualifying, taking a second straight pole position by a margin of a tenth-and-a-half in spite of locking a brake at the final corner on his best lap. Lining up in third was Michael Schumacher’s Mercedes in his best qualifying position since his comeback, ahead of the Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel. Kimi Raikkonen qualified in fifth place but was obliged to start from tenth place after a penalty was applied for a change of his Lotus’s gearbox.

With the rain having materialised by the race start, almost the entire field began the race on intermediate tyres. As the lights went out, Hamilton atoned for his poor getaway at Melbourne by leading the field from Button, who tried to no avail to move around the outside of his teammate. Romain Grosjean made an excellent start from seventh on the grid to briefly hold third as the pack rounded the first two corners, though Webber and Schumacher both passed the Frenchman through the flat-out turn 3. Grosjean thus ducked to the right to try and recover at least his one of his lost positions, but succeeded only in tipping Schumacher into a spin. Both men would continue having lost numerous positions, though Grosjean’s race would end with a trip to the gravel on lap 4.

In the meantime, Vettel benefited from the shenanigans ahead to move into fourth behind his teammate Webber and the two McLarens. Fernando Alonso inherited fifth having started from eighth on the grid, Nico Rosberg holding his grid position of sixth. Sergio Perez took the decision to pit his Sauber from seventh place at the end of the opening lap, taking on a set of full wet tyres as the rain became ever more intense. It soon became apparent that the full wets would be a necessity, Button and Alonso making the plunge at the end of lap 4 with Hamilton, Webber, Vettel and Rosberg doing likewise a lap later.

Hamilton narrowly maintained his lead over Button, with Perez moving up into a superb third position as a reward for his earlier gamble. Behind the Mexican were Webber, Alonso and the yet-to-stop Jean-Eric Vergne, though the Frenchman soon conceded the position to Vettel. However, the Safety Car was deployed on lap 7 as a result of the worsening conditions, and amid complaints among the drivers on the pit-to-car radio of their cars aquaplaning, the red flags were shown on lap 9. Vergne thus in effect benefited from a ‘free’ switch to the full wets, while it is worth noting that HRT’s Narain Karthikeyan took the restart in a barely believable tenth position having begun the race on full wets.

The race re-commenced on lap 10 under the Safety Car for three laps, at which point Hamilton proceeded to get away from Perez, Alonso, Webber and Vettel as Button followed the Safety Car back into the pits, opting to switch to intermediate tyres in light of the improving track conditions. Hamilton, Webber, Alonso and Massa followed suit the following lap, leaving Perez to lead a lap for the first time in his fledgling F1 career prior to pitting at the end of that lap. Incredibly, Perez emerged in the lead from Alonso and Hamilton, who suffered a poor pit-stop, though Alonso swept into the lead immediately with the help of his up-to-temperature tyres.

Alonso and Perez proceeded to cruise away from the rest of the pack, Hamilton pulling away from Rosberg in fourth position albeit unable to close the gap to the two Hispanic drivers ahead. Vettel was in fifth place at this stage ahead of Raikkonen and Webber, Rosberg and Raikkonen both making significant gains by joining Button, who lost considerable time when he had to pit for a fresh nose after colliding with a yet-to-stop Karthikeyan, with an early switch to intermediates. Rosberg was nonetheless soon finding himself vulnerable to his pursuers, Vettel, Raikkonen and Webber all making their way past the Mercedes in consecutive laps. Meanwhile, to the disbelief of onlookers, Perez was beginning to reel in race-leader Alonso.

The 22-year old began to post fastest lap after fastest lap as the track continued to dry, Perez catching Alonso at a rate of almost a second per lap on average. The Sauber driver’s rampage was interrupted by making his switch to dry tyres a lap later than Alonso, costing him around five seconds. The Swiss team also interestingly chose to equip Perez’s car with the hard compound (prime) tyre, oppositely to Alonso whose Ferrari was making use of the medium compound (option). In spite of his ostensibly slower rubber though, Perez continued his seemingly irresistible charge when he re-joined the race, a maiden win looking distinctly within reach as he once again began to reduce Alonso’s advantage at a veritable rate of knots.

Alas, Perez’s efforts were to be in vain as he ran wide at turn 13 on lap 50, at which point he was just a second away from Alonso. It was nonetheless an extraordinary performance from Perez, who duly crossed the line just two seconds adrift of Alonso come the chequered flag six laps later; the Spaniard taking his 28^th career victory and a surprise championship lead. Hamilton just had no response to either Alonso or Perez, forced to settle for third position for a second consecutive race. Webber finished in fourth position, helped by a combination of switching to dry tyres a lap sooner than Raikkonen, who finished fifth, and a late puncture for teammate Vettel (precipitated by contact with a lapped Karthikeyan) which dropped him outside of the points in eleventh place.

Bruno Senna recovered from a minor collision with Williams teammate Pastor Maldonado which necessitated a change of front wing at the end of the first lap to finish in an excellent sixth place following a number of finely executed overtaking manoeuvres as the track dried. Maldonado was also on course for a creditable tenth position on the penultimate lap prior to engine failure. Seventh place went to Paul di Resta in a solid effort for Force India, ahead of Vergne and the second Force India car of Nico Hulkenberg. Rounding out the points was an embattled Schumacher, who suffered dearly from tyre wear after his early coming together with Grosjean. Behind Vettel in eleventh place was the second Toro Rosso of Daniel Ricciardo, with Rosberg finishing a disastrous 13^th position as a result of the grave tyre wear issues that currently haunt the Mercedes team.

Button finished 14^th, his coming together with Karthikeyan exacerbated by a mysterious inability on the part of the Brit to warm his intermediate tyres. The embattled Massa finished in 15^th in another extremely lacklustre outing, ahead of the Caterham of Vitaly Petrov, the Marussia of Timo Glock, and the second Caterham of Heikki Kovalainen. Maldonado was ultimately classified nineteenth, ahead of Charles Pic in the second Marussia and the HRT duo of Pedro De La Rosa and Karthikeyan. The former's race was immediately compromised by stalling on the grid and a subsequent penalty for team personnel being on the grid too late before the start of the race, whilst the latter was handed a 20-second penalty for being deemed culpable for the late contact with Vettel. Besides Grosjean, the only other retirement was Perez's Sauber teammate Kamui Kobayashi, who succumbed to a brake problem having never looked like scoring points all race.

Needless to say, it was Perez who utterly stole the show in a scintillating race. Rumours are already circulating that he could be in line to replace Massa as soon as the next race at China – whilst they may be somewhat far-fetched, Perez’s role as the leading member of the Ferrari young driver scheme makes him the prime contender to take the beleaguered Brazilian’s seat as soon as such a time that Ferrari runs out of patience with him. If he can’t dramatically improve his form as a matter of urgency, Massa could find that that moment arrives sooner than he thinks.

Malaysian Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

After an action-packed first race of the season at Melbourne, the question is what did we learn that will help us predict how the remaining nineteen races on the calendar are likely to unfold?

Unfortunately, the answer is precious little. With its myriad of sharp, slow corners, the Albert Park circuit and its ‘point n’ squirt’ nature is a world away from the sweeping, high-speed curves of the Sepang Circuit where the F1 circus has now arrived. Combine that with the fickle nature of the Malaysian weather, and this weekend’s race is just about as wide open as was the curtain-raiser.

Traditionally, it has been the Red Bull that has excelled at downforce-intensive tracks such as Sepang. Evidence in pre-season testing at Barcelona would however suggest that McLaren are now at least as fast as their Milton Keynes counterparts in that particular department. Australian Grand Prix winner Jenson Button thus therefore can be considered the favourite, particularly as he is well-suited to the blistering heat which places a premium upon the tyre perseveration for which he is renowned as well as the monsoon-style conditions Malaysia has been known to throw up on occasion instead.

In the other side of the garage, Lewis Hamilton will be absolutely determined to score the equaliser in an intra-team battle that looks set to rage all season long – the 2008 champion was visibly glum on the Melbourne podium having finished in third place with no real answer to his teammate’s pace having out-qualified him a day previously. Qualifying won’t be quite as key as it was last weekend with the numerous overtaking opportunities Sepang has to offer augmented by a long DRS zone along the start/finish straight, and if it’s dry, Hamilton will have to manage his tyres far better than he did at last year’s event, where a dismal four-stop strategy along with a 20-second penalty for weaving ensured he finished in a lowly eight position.

On the other hand, it was a relatively straightforward lights-to-flag triumph this time last year for Sebastian Vettel, and he’ll be hoping to prove that the Red Bull isn’t trailing the McLaren quite as badly as events Melbourne would suggest this time around. He may have qualified in a disappointing sixth, but second place was a just reward for a next to faultless race from the reigning champion – with a stronger qualifying this weekend, Vettel should be right in the hunt. It was equally refreshing to see Mark Webber bank his best-ever home race result too, the amicable Aussie having also out-qualified his teammate for the first time since last year’s German Grand Prix. It will be fascinating to see how long Webber can keep up such a promising upturn in form.

Lotus drivers Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean could both yet prove troublesome for the two front-running teams, neither really getting the chance to show their true colours at Melbourne. Grosjean may have plonked his Lotus on the second row in a spectacular qualifying session, but it was all for nought when a poor start led to his early exit from the race courtesy of one Pastor  Maldonado. It was the other way round for Raikkonen, who after qualifying in seventeenth by way of a mistake in Q1 proceeded to finish ten places higher in the race with some impressive pace amid traffic. Both could be potential podium threats if they experience trouble-free weekends.

Much the same applies for Mercedes drivers Nico Rosberg and Michael Schumacher. The latter was running in a strong third place before his gearbox packed up, and Sepang is a track at which he has taken victory three times in the past. One the other hand, the chronic tyre wear suffered by Rosberg last weekend doesn’t bode too well for Malaysia if conditions are dry, as it was that tyre wear that put the younger of the Mercedes teammates in the position to pick up a puncture after making contact with the Sauber of Sergio Perez on the final lap of the race. The two silver cars will therefore need to be sure of a strong qualifying session to compensate.

Fernando Alonso may have a done a stellar job to finish his reluctant Ferrari in fifth position at Melbourne, but the weekend was nothing short of disaster for teammate Felipe Massa. The Brazilian struggled with excessive tyre wear throughout the race, eventually retiring after colliding with Bruno Senna in the closing stages of the race, who himself had recovered after getting embroiled in the traditional first corner mêlée. Ferrari have given Massa the benefit of the doubt by providing him with a fresh chassis for this weekend, but the Italian press are already calling for his dismissal – Perez and the out-of-work Jarno Trulli being mooted as potential replacements.

Speaking of Perez, the Mexican enjoyed an excellent afternoon last time out, and would’ve almost certainly crossed the line in sixth if not for the late contact with Rosberg. Instead, teammate Kamui Kobayashi nabbed the position, but the pace of both the Sauber drivers would indicate that they lead the mid-field pack ahead of Force India and Toro Rosso for now. Maldonado may have been on course for a terrific sixth place prior to his last lap shunt, but the Venezelan’s fondness for street circuits as well as Senna’s lacklustre race means we shouldn’t pass judgement on just how big a step Williams have taken just yet. As for the three perennial stragglers, Caterham appear hardly any closer to the midfield than they were last year, with apparent reliability issues to sort out, whilst the Marussia definitely seems to have the legs on at least the HRT on the strength of both drivers actually qualifying for the race – Glock’s 14^th place finish could prove crucial when it comes to determining the team’s constructors championship placing come November.

Qualifying Prediction:

1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Button, 4. Webber, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Schumacher, 8. Alonso, 9. Grosjean, 10. Kobayashi

Race Prediction:

1. Vettel, 2. Button, 3. Webber, 4. Hamilton, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Alonso, 7. Grosjean, 8. Rosberg, 9. Kobayashi, 10. Hulkenberg

This may be admittedly another fairly conservative prediction, but I’m not going to stick my neck on the line by forecasting a Lotus or Mercedes podium just yet. Indeed, the top four from Melbourne will be the same for Sepang in a different order, with Hamilton’s tyre wear woes dropping him back from a second straight pole position. I can’t help but feel Vettel is going to strike back sooner or later, and provided it remains dry there’s no reason in my view why Malaysia can’t be the place. Alonso will once again wring every possible point out of the Ferrari with Massa nowhere in sight, with Raikkonen just pipping the Spaniard to the mark at the circuit where he claimed his first Grand Prix win nine years ago. Grosjean will bank a healthy handful of points ahead of Rosberg, Mercedes tyre wear gremlins likely to harm the prospects of both of the silver cars. Kobayashi will enjoy a quietly impressive race weekend by starting and finishing inside the top ten, with Nico Hulkenberg levelling the score with teammate Paul di Resta with a measured drive to tenth position.

Australian Grand Prix 2012 - Report

Jenson Button took a fine win at Melbourne as the 2012 Formula One season got off to an electrifying start at Melbourne. Upon taking the lead at the very start of the race, the McLaren driver never looked like being stopped, Sebastian Vettel finishing in second after vaulting ahead of pole-sitter Lewis Hamilton during a late Safety Car period.

It was Hamilton who set the pace during Saturday’s qualifying session, leading an all-McLaren front row as Button lined up alongside his teammate. Romain Grosjean surprised everybody on his F1 return by putting his Lotus in third place on the grid, ahead of the Mercedes of Michael Schumacher, the Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Vettel, the second Mercedes of Nico Rosberg and an eye-catchingly quick Pastor Maldonado for Williams. Fernando Alonso beached his recalcitrant Ferrari in the gravel at turn 1 in Q2, consigning himself to twelfth on the grid in the process, whilst an error from Kimi Raikkonen in Q1 would ensure he would start the race from a lowly seventeenth place.

As the lights went out to signify the start of a new season, it was Button who made the superior getaway of the two McLaren drivers, taking the lead at the very first corner. Behind the silver-and-red cars, Grosjean made a poor start, dropping from third to sixth position behind Schumacher, Rosberg and Vettel. Things were about to go from bad to worse for the Franco-Swiss driver however, as his Lotus was terminally damaged by Maldonado’s Williams as the Venezuelan clumsily attempted a pass at turn 13 on the second lap.

As Button and Hamilton stretched their legs at the front of the pack, Vettel wasted no time in dispatching compatriot Rosberg to take fourth place with a ballsy manoeuvre at turn 10 on the second lap. The reigning champion shrugged off a minor off-track excursion on lap 6 and proceeded to cruise up to the back of Schumacher, but as he began to line up as pass on lap 11, the Mercedes driver went straight on at the first turn before limping back to the pits into retirement as a result of transmission failure.

Button continued to lead after making his first stop for medium tyres on lap 16, whilst Hamilton had fallen behind the yet-to-stop Sauber of Sergio Perez (the Mexican had worked his way through the field from last place after suffering gearbox failure during qualifying) after pitting for medium tyres the following lap. Hamilton subsequently lost time trying to find a way past Perez, putting Vettel in a strong position to take advantage of the Safety Car when it arrived. Meanwhile, Alonso had leapt from eighth at the end of the opening lap to fourth place ahead of Rosberg who narrowly held fifth place from Webber and Maldonado.

The Australian had recovered some lost ground after finishing the first lap down in ninth following a lousy start, while the erstwhile GP2 champion's speed was seemingly unaffected by a trip through the gravel on lap 5.  Both men appeared to be being held up by Rosberg, who took to the escape road at the turn 11/12 switchback on lap 31 whilst coming under pressure from Webber; the German dived into the pits for a second stop at the end of the lap. Alonso was next among the front-runners to stop again for mediums on lap 34, Button and Hamilton following two laps later.

Both of the McLaren drivers would however lose time to Vettel, who benefited from pitting after the Safety Car was scrambled to allow Vitaly Petrov’s stricken Caterham to be recovered. Vettel was able to consequently move ahead of Hamilton, while Webber similarly took advantage of pitting under the Safety Car to move ahead of Alonso into fourth place. The race would get underway once more at the start of lap 42, with Button heading the field from Vettel, Hamilton, Webber, Alonso and Maldonado. Button made an excellent job of the restart, slowly extending his advantage over rivals Vettel, Hamilton and Webber, who were all tightly bunched for the remainder of the race.

The order among the top four nonetheless remained static until the chequered flag, Button taking his thirteenth career victory and his third at the Albert Park circuit in fine style. Alonso finished in fifth, his caused helped by a huge shunt for Maldonado on the very final lap on the exit of turn 8; the Williams driver had been harassing the double champion right from the restart with the Ferrari suffering badly from tyre wear.
Perez had been on course to inherit sixth place after making his customary one-stop strategy pay dividends, until he was tagged by Rosberg as the German attempted to pass on the exit of turn 10 on the final lap. The German suffered a puncture as a result, whilst front wing damage sustained by Perez meant he would drop two places to eighth.

It was the second Sauber of Kamui Kobayashi that stole sixth, thanks in part to an aggressive move by the Japanese driver on eventual seventh-place finisher Raikkonen at turn 3 immediately after the restart. Ninth went to Toro Rosso’s Daniel Ricciardo, whose race was immediately compromised by a first corner collision with Bruno Senna’s Williams. Both were able to continue after pitting for repairs, but Senna made contact with the Ferrari of an extremely lacklustre Felipe Massa at turn 4 towards the end of the race which ultimately put both Brazilians out of the race. Ricciardo on the other hand managed to latch himself on to the back of a train comprising Perez, Rosberg, Kobayashi, Raikkonen, Jean-Eric Vergne and Paul di Resta, overtaking the latter pair to take ninth place, putting two Australian drivers in the points for the first time in F1 history.

Di Resta took tenth with a last-gasp pass on the second Toro Rosso of Vergne in an anonymous afternoon for the Force India team – the sister car of Nico Hulkenberg retired on the opening lap after contact was made with a slow-starting Webber at the first corner. Rosberg and Maldonado were classified in twelfth and thirteenth places respectively, ahead of the two Marussias of Timo Glock and Charles Pic, the latter of whom failed to make the finish after his car experienced a loss of oil pressure. Heikki Kovalainen joined his new Caterham teammate Petrov in succumbing to mechanical problems, whilst the HRT pair of Pedro de la Rosa and Narain Karthikeyan both failed to qualify in what can only be described as a catastrophic weekend for the ill-resourced Spanish outfit.

With the top four cars separated by less than five seconds at the finish line, the 2012 season is shaping up to be a far closer-fought affair than last year. As I investigated last week, the trend in recent years has been that the winner of the first race has gone on to take the title –  though the destiny of the championship is far from certain at this very early stage of the year, Button’s emphatic triumph over Hamilton appears to indicate that this season could present a golden opportunity for the Frome native to add a second world title to his repertoire and establish himself as a modern great of the sport.

Australian Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

With the first practice session of the season just hours away, here are my thoughts on how this weekend’s curtain-raising Australian Grand Prix is likely to pan out.

For starters, Red Bull will be there or thereabouts. The RB8 has looked like just about the best overall package throughout pre-season testing, and Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber are thus likely to be very much in the hunt for the first win of the season. While both men will be looking to get their campaign off to a flying start by putting 25 points on the board, it will be interesting to see whether Webber will be able to get on terms with his teammate, who delivered a fairly straightforward victory at the Albert Park circuit last year.  Webber’s track record at his home race on the other hand doesn’t make for terribly promising reading – his best finish in ten attempts at Melbourne is fifth, which he achieved in his very first race at the wheel of a Minardi and has equalled twice since. Bearing that in mind, don’t assume a mediocre result down under means that Webber is in for another season as disappointing as 2011.

The general consensus in the paddock is that McLaren are a close second in the pecking order, with Mercedes, Lotus and Ferrari vying to be best of the rest. Lewis Hamilton finished in second place at Melbourne last year, albeit twenty seconds down the road from Vettel, and all things being equal he should be able to put his McLaren cat firmly among the Red Bull pigeons this time around providing he doesn’t have the kind of brainless collision for which he became renowned last year. Jenson Button will pose a threat too, the allegedly softer 2012-spec Pirelli tyres likely to play into his hands. A shot at victory will however depend on a strong qualifying session for the 32-year-old, whose efforts last year were thwarted by a poor start from fourth on the grid which ultimately led to a drive-through penalty.

The signs during pre-season testing were anything but promising for Ferrari, but a team of their size will be able to rectify the problems inherent in their car sooner or later – the question is whether Mercedes and Lotus will be able to capitalise on the Italian team’s travails while the flaws of the F2012 are still being ironed out. If a couple of the Red Bulls or McLarens hit trouble, a podium for Nico Rosberg, Michael Schumacher or even Kimi Raikkonen can’t be ruled out, though you can bet your bottom dollar that Fernando Alonso will be in amongst that bunch almost regardless of how poorly his car performs. The same sadly cannot be said for Felipe Massa, who runs a serious risk of being swallowed by the midfield pack unless he miraculously closes the gap significantly to his double champion teammate.

The midfield is another tough battle to predict, but Force India look to have a slight edge over Toro Rosso and Sauber. That should give Paul Di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg a good shot at a points finish; both will be undoubtedly be eager to assert themselves over the other from the very off in what promises to be one of the most intense intra-team battles on the grid this season. It will be fascinating to see how Daniel Ricciardo reacts to the pressure of his first home race, especially since he’ll be expected to outperform Toro Rosso stablemate Jean-Eric Vergne in light of having the benefit of eleven starts for HRT last year. The softer Pirellis means a repeat of last year’s one-stopping heroics from Sauber is unlikely, but both Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez should be in the frame to steal a point or two if others ahead of them hit trouble.

The close-fought nature of the midfield fight means scoring points is going to be a tall order for either Williams driver at this stage of the season, though Melbourne’s typical high attrition rate may yet give both Bruno Senna and Maldonado a slender chance of a top-ten finish. Caterham still appear some way off breaking out of its well-established position as the tenth fastest team on the grid, whilst simply finishing the race will be considered an achievement for both HRT and Marussia, neither of whom have run their new cars competitively as of the time of writing.

Qualifying Prediction:

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Button, 5. Rosberg, 6. Alonso, 7. Schumacher, 8. Massa, 9. Raikkonen, 10. Grosjean

Race Result Prediction:

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Button, 4. Alonso, 5. Rosberg, 6. Schumacher, 7. Raikkonen, 8. Massa, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Ricciardo

I appreciate my forecast of Vettel doing the double is hardly what you’d describe as adventurous, but the reality is the German holds all the cards heading into this one. His confidence is sky high, his speed is formidable and the car he’ll be driving (which he has opted to christen ‘Abbey’ this year) is shaping up to the best on the grid yet again. Hamilton will park his McLaren on the front row, but not even the double-DRS zone, located both on the start/finish straight and on the approach to turn 3 this year, will help him catch the seemingly unstoppable wunderkind ahead of him. Button will snatch the final podium place after Webber’s poor home race luck strikes again, perhaps in the form of a botched pit-stop, puncture or collision with Hamilton, while Alonso will be able to haul his Ferrari into a respectable fourth having been outqualified by Rosberg’s Mercedes. Massa will languish in eighth behind former teammates Schumacher and Raikkonen, whilst Hulkenberg and Ricciardo will take the final points of the afternoon with a pair of measured performances. Though Romain Grosjean will make the Q3 cut, I can’t help but get the feeling the Franco-Swiss will be too eager to please on his F1 return, a broken front wing the likely outcome of his over-exuberance.

I won’t be writing qualifying reports this year, as I estimated that writing race previews such as this one featuring my predictions would be more entertaining than a simple blow-by-blow account of qualifying. I will however be writing a comprehensive report of the weekend’s action on Sunday morning, so make sure you check back here a few hours after the conclusion of what promises to be a thriller of an Australian Grand Prix.

Over Before It's Begun?

With just one week standing between us and the lights going out to signify the start of the long-awaited 2012 season, allow us to examine an interesting trend that has been surprisingly common in the recent history of Formula One – the correlation between a particular driver winning the first race and going on to win that year’s championship.

It might seem tempting to dismiss this phenomenon as pure co-incidence, but when one considers just how regularly it has occurred in the last twenty or so years, it demands a degree of investigation. Twelve months ago, it was Sebastian Vettel who kicked off his title defence in style with a race win in Australia; he subsequently romped to honours over the course of the remainder of the year. Granted, Fernando Alonso narrowly failed to convert his Bahrain success the year before into a third title victory, but eventual champion Vettel did have the race firmly in his grasp until a spark plug issue demoted him to fourth position come the chequered flag.

Delving further back into history, Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen all won the opening races of their respective title-winning seasons; Fernando Alonso took the first victory in 2006 en route to successfully defending his title (teammate Giancarlo Fisichella’s win at Melbourne the year before proved to be a false dawn); and all of Michael Schumacher’s seven championship years involved winning the inaugural Grand Prix of the season with the exception of 2003, when David Coulthard emerged victorious in a highly eventful Australian event.

In fact, since 1990, just on five of a possible twenty-two occasions did the winner of the first race fail to take home the title, Coulthard in 1997 and Eddie Irvine in 1999 being the two instances I have so far neglected to mention (though it should be noted that Mika Hakkinen would’ve almost certainly won in the latter scenario had his McLaren’s throttle not given up the ghost). Another intriguing figure is the average championship position of the winner of the first race since 1990, which currently stands at 1.64, implying that that driver is more than likely to at least be in the thick of the title battle.

Does this trend therefore imply that the winner of the first race has some sort of advantage for the balance of the season beyond that of an increased points tally? The statistics thus far seem to suggest that may well be the case, but then again the figures for the seventies and eighties appear to undermine such a theory. During these two decades, only a mere four out of twenty first race winners went on to be crowned champion at the end of the season: Mario Andretti (1978), Alan Jones (1980), Nelson Piquet (1983) and Alain Prost (1985). What’s more, the average championship ranking for first race winners is a comparatively lowly 2.79, far from a cast-iron guarantee that driver would be in title contention months later.

The most significant factor that distinguishes the seventies and eighties from following decades is the difference in the points systems used during different periods. The decision on the part of the FIA to increase the point value of a win from nine to ten points in time for the 1991 season would in all likelihood have been inconsequential, especially given that second place finishes were increased from being worth six to eight points after the 2002 season. More telling is the abolition of ‘dropped’ scores, this particular quirk of the points system seeking to ensure that poor reliability, far more prevalent in the past than it is today, did not determine the outcome of championships.

The practice was scrapped as the Concorde Agreement took hold during the 1980-81 off-season, but was re-introduced for the 1985 season as the less reliable turbocharged engine came to be universally adopted. However, having to drop scores yielded some anomalous, some may say unfair results, 1988 serving as a case in point as Prost conceded the championship to Senna in spite of having outscored his Brazilian teammate by nine points. The following year, turbocharged engines were outlawed, though dropped scores persisted for another two seasons before being axed. Naturally, being able to drop scores would prove a major help for those continuing to entertain hopes of title success after a poor first race outing, partially explaining why relatively few drivers have been able to do so since. But, as five drivers have proved after the rule change, it’s far from an impossible feat.

Also worth looking at are the tracks that have played host to the first race of the season. With the exceptions of 2006 and 2010, when the season got underway at Bahrain, the Albert Park track in Melbourne has fulfilled that role since 1996. The Australian venue has amassed a fairly respectable 70% record of identifying that year’s champion, making it a significantly better indicator than other season-opening tracks of the past, including the Argentine Buenos Aires circuit, which has a 40% record, the South African course Kyalami, which has a paltry 30% record, and the Jacarepagua track in Rio de Janeiro, which is worse still at 20%.  While these data can be in part attributed to improved reliability in the modern age, Melbourne’s penchant for serving up action-packed races means that its usefulness as an indicator of relative performance is not to be dismissed quite so lightly.

While the recent evidence suggests that whoever walks away with spoils after 58 laps of intense action at Melbourne in a week’s time has a very strong chance of being crowned champion come November, the destiny of the title will not simply be decided in one race. That said, in all but the most bizarre of circumstances, you can’t win a race without a competitive car – for all its unpredictability, the Australian Grand Prix will undoubtedly provide us with our most reliable form guide for the upcoming season yet. It’s a stretch to say Melbourne is half the battle as for securing the title, but in all likelihood those dicing for victory next weekend will be the same men vying to become this year’s F1 champion, whilst those out of contention do not have the history books on their side when it comes to the business of playing catch-up.

2012 Season Preview

Hello! Welcome to my humble blog once more, now moving into its third year of meticulous reporting on all aspects of Formula One. Be sure to check back regularly for race reports and features every weekend, as well as to subscribe to my Twitter feed (@KleinonF1) to keep abreast of all the latest F1 news.

As the eagle-eyed among you are sure to have by now noticed, a series of tabs have emerged since the end of last season. By clicking on them, you'll find all the information you need for this season, including a full run-down of teams and their drivers, list of events for this season and the full championship standings when they become available. In addition, you'll also discover a comprehensive timeline of events that have occurred in the sport since 1950, as well as a plethora of vital F1 statistics for your reference. And finally, I've taken the executive decision to re-instate the 'poll' feature, which can be seen on the right hand side of the page, so make sure you cast vote and make your opinions heard.

As is always the case during the weeks leading up to the first Grand Prix of any season, the true form of all the front-running teams and drivers is shrouded in mystery - Will anybody be able to stop Sebastian Vettel from strolling to a hat-trick of titles? Has Lewis Hamilton put his demons that set him back last season firmly behind him? Is the new Ferrari contender too radical for its own good? Will Mercedes finally take that illusive step into the top echelon of teams? And how will former champion Kimi Raikkonen fare in his much-vaunted comeback with the Lotus team?

Of course, there have been a number of subtle tweaks to the rules since last season, albeit not on the same scale as the alterations that made the racing during 2011 some of the best F1 fans have seen for some time. On the technical side of things, perhaps the most significant change is that 'blown diffusers', that is to say the practice of feeding exhaust gases through the rear diffuser in order to create downforce, have been outlawed with a new technical regulation that requires the exhausts to be positioned higher up the car's bodywork. The FIA then took the further step of banning all attempts to feed exhaust gases over any part of the car with the purpose of aerodynamic gain, as well as more recently re-writing the standard ECU to prevent teams from exploiting a loophole in the regulations that would have permitted partially-blown diffusers after the governing body was tipped off by Mercedes.

In addition, the 'reactive ride height' system that both Lotus and Ferrari had been developing over winter was declared to be illegal by the FIA, in spite of their previous verdict that it conformed to the regulations - the system would have provided added stability under braking by using hydraulic cylinders located in the car's suspension to keep the car's ride height constant. The most visually obvious change in the technical rulebook is however the stipulation that the car's nose must now be 7.5 centimetres lower than last year, resulting in the distinctive 'stepped' nose that has been adopted by every team that has launched their car so far with the exception of McLaren. Inevitably, there have been many complaints among fans that the cars are now too ugly to even lay eyes upon, but as was the case back in 2009 (when the 'skinny' aerodynamic rules were introduced), we'll all be used to the sport's new look after two or three races.

On top of all that, there have been a number of minor sporting regulation changes too. First, lapped traffic will once more be permitted to 'un-lap' itself during safety car periods, with the intention of ensuring backmarkers don't spoil fights for position up front. Also, The FIA will be taking a stricter stance on driving etiquette, with a driver no longer allowed to re-take the racing line having moved off of it in order to defend a position, while drivers will no longer have three sets of tyres specifically allocated to them for Friday practice. Finally, all races will from now on be capped at a maximum duration of four hours during indefinite suspensions of races, in theory meaning last year's Canadian Grand Prix (which lasted just under four hours and five minutes) will remain the longest in F1 history for the foreseeable future.

As for the calendar, the most obvious change is the return of the United States Grand Prix, which was last held at Indianapolis in 2007. This year's edition will take place at the brand new, Hermann Tilke-designed (who else?) Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, and takes its place as the penultimate venue on this year's schedule. Elsewhere, the Bahrain Grand Prix is back despite the ongoing political turmoil within the tiny desert kingdom, occupying the fourth slot in the schedule for the time being at least, whilst the German Grand Prix returns to the Hockenheimring in accordance with the venue's alternating agreement with the Nurburgring, which hosted the race last season.

Got all of that? In that case, let's move on to scrutinising the prospects of all 12 teams and 24 drivers for the 2012 season...

Red Bull Racing

Drivers – Sebastian Vettel (D), Mark Webber (AU)

Reserve Driver – Sebastien Buemi (CH)

The signs that we’ve seen during pre-season testing so far appear to indicate that the Red Bull team, who cantered so effortlessly to both the drivers and constructors titles last year, will once more prove the team to beat in 2012. The new Red Bull RB8, designed by the technical virtuoso that is Adrian Newey, unsurprisingly bears a strong resemblance to its all-conquering predecessor, and so far has gone exceptionally well during testing race simulations. This means that Sebastian Vettel has to begin this season as favourite to take a third title on the trot, though that isn’t to say that the young German is likely to have things as easy as he did last year. In fact, his biggest challenger could well come from within the team in the form of Mark Webber, who despite having been made to look rather average last season appears to be somewhat re-invigorated after a positive winter. That said, it will require a herculean effort on the part of the Australian to match the form of his teammate, who at the tender age of 24 is likely to only get better and better as each season passes at this stage of his career.

Vodafone McLaren Mercedes

Drivers – Jenson Button (GB), Lewis Hamilton (GB)

Reserve Drivers – Gary Paffett (GB), Oliver Turvey (GB)

If there’s one team that can depose Red Bull this season, much like last year it would seem that team is McLaren. The new MP4-27 is the only car that has been unveiled so far that has eschewed the controversial ‘stepped’ nose in favour of a more traditional set-up, which indicates the team has opted to retain less of the DNA of their challenger from last year than their rivals. This approach would have appeared to have paid off, the car looking to have the one-lap pace that was lacking for much of last season in comparison to Red Bull. Jenson Button has arguably come off the back of his best ever season in F1, which in theory will make him equally formidable this season, whilst Lewis Hamilton looks to have put behind him at least some of the demons that were unquestionably holding him back last year. Whether that will be enough to topple Vettel is another question altogether – the danger persists that the pair of Brits will take away too many points from each other for either to represent a real title threat.

Scuderia Ferrari

Drivers – Fernando Alonso (E), Felipe Massa (BR)

Reserve Drivers – Giancarlo Fisichella (I), Marc Gene (E), Davide Rigon (I)

Will this be yet another year of disappointment for Ferrari? Whilst things for the oldest and most illustrious team of them all have not been looking terribly promising in testing, prompting new technical director Pat Fry to predict that neither Ferrari driver will feature on the podium at Melbourne, it shouldn’t be forgotten that last season McLaren suffered an abysmal winter before bouncing back in time for the first race. The team can also take heart from the fact that its imaginatively titled F2012 challenger looked a damn sight better at the second test at Barcelona than it did two weeks earlier at Jerez, though at this stage the rather aggressively-designed machine still has work to do before being on a par with McLaren and Red Bull. Drivers Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa are nonetheless quietly confident about their prospects this season, both claiming that there is a lot more speed to be unlocked from within the car. Alonso of course is more than capable of extracting the very maximum from any car handed to him, whilst 2012 really is ‘last-chance saloon’ for Massa, who absolutely has to improve on his miserable tally of zero podiums last season to stand any chance of retaining his seat next year in the face of stiff competition.

Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team

Drivers – Michael Schumacher (D), Nico Rosberg (D)

Reserve Driver – TBA

Team principal Ross Brawn has set his Mercedes team a fairly ambitious goal for 2012 – to finish in the top three of the constructors standings. He may have head-hunted Aldo Costa and Geoff Willis to help the Brackley-based team achieve this end, but overhauling one of Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari will prove no mean feat for a team that has been firmly locked in fourth position for the last two seasons. The new W03, which was only launched in time for the second test at Barcelona, has looked like it could, for the time being, at least prove a match for Ferrari, though as ever it will be virtually impossible to assess the relative pace of any of the teams with total accuracy until Q1 gets underway at Melbourne. Question marks still surround just how good Michael Schumacher v2.0 is, which in turn has made it frustratingly difficult to pinpoint the extent of the talents of his teammate Nico Rosberg. If the Mercedes is up to the challenge this season however, it may just be that F1 fans finally have their questions answered. A first win for the team since its Brawn GP days is far from out of the question, whilst both drivers will no doubt be equally desperate to clinch victory number ninety-two and one respectively.

Lotus F1 Team

Drivers – Kimi Raikkonen (FIN), Romain Grosjean (F)

Reserve Driver – Jerome D’Ambrosio (B)

The newly renamed Lotus team, which has until now competed as Renault since 2002, will be looking to pick up where they left off at the end of 2010, when Robert Kubica finished inside the top eight of the championship. The Enstone-based outfit suffered dearly in the absence of their star driver last season, and while the Pole is yet to fully recover from the horrific accident he had just over a year ago, the team have secured the services of another proven winner in the form of Kimi Raikkonen to drive their new E20 contender. After two mediocre seasons in the World Rally Championship, the Finn is as motivated as ever to work toward his second F1 title. More to the point, the testing timesheets indicate that the ‘Iceman’ has lost none of the speed that propelled him towards championship glory in 2007, and reigning GP2 champion Romain Grosjean provides an ideal number two driver who stands to benefit enormously from his teammates experience. The Franco-Swiss driver has well and truly earned a second crack of the F1 whip, his two year stint in GP2 having added a much-needed dose of maturity to his obvious speed. The team may have suffered somewhat from its lack of running at the second pre-season test at Barcelona, making a repeat of the shock early podiums last year unlikely; don’t be too shocked however if Raikkonen’s undiminished prowess nets the team a top-three finish or two later in the season.

Sahara Force India F1 Team

Drivers – Paul di Resta (GB), Nico Hulkenberg (D)

Reserve Driver – Jules Bianchi (F)

The Force India team faces an uphill struggle if it is to continue its upward trajectory in the constructors standings. The team finished sixth last season, just falling short of edging out Renault for fifth, but it would do well indeed to outscore the seemingly rejuvenated Lotus team this year. Even so, the new Mercedes-powered VJM-05 has looked promising, regularly outpacing their rivals at Sauber, Williams and Toro Rosso. Paul di Resta remains with the team for a second season, and will be hoping to build on the impressive rookie campaign he had last season. Also looking for an eye-catching sophomore year will be his new teammate Nico Hulkenberg, who replaces his out-of-favour countryman Adrian Sutil. This was the man who, lest we forget, bagged Williams its first pole position in five years in the rain at the 2010 Brazilian Grand Prix, so it’s far from inconceivable that he could come out on top of what should prove to be one of the more intriguing intra-team rivalries on the grid this season. GP2 frontrunner Jules Bianchi will also be eager to follow in Hulkenberg’s footsteps and prove himself worthy of an F1 race seat as he participates in selected outings for the team in Friday practice this season in conjunction with a season in World Series by Renault.

Sauber F1 Team

Drivers – Kamui Kobayashi (J), Sergio Perez (MEX)

Reserve Driver – Esteban Gutierrez (MEX)

Peter Sauber’s eponymous team got off to a flying start last year before tailing off during the latter stages, so they will be hoping to sustain their performance all season this time around. The departure of technical director James Key’s will have hardly helped matters, but his DNA is nevertheless to be found in this year’s striking C31. Both of the Swiss team’s drivers have important years ahead of them. After something of a lacklustre second half of 2011, Kamui Kobayashi needs to prove he has the pace to stave off the challenge of his teammate Sergio Perez, as well as to rediscover some of the spark that turned so many heads during the second half of 2010 and the early part of last year, whilst Perez needs to add a healthy dose of consistency to his evident pace to put himself in the frame for a hypothetical promotion to Ferrari. A disappointing year for either could seriously limit the lifespan of their careers, whilst a good season could equally have the precise opposite effect – as is the case at Force India, this battle of the teammates could well be among the closest on the grid.

Scuderia Toro Rosso

Drivers – Daniel Ricciardo (AU), Jean-Eric Vergne (F)

Reserve Driver – Sebastien Buemi (CH)

Needless to say that, as a young driver, being backed by Red Bull has its perks, but along with the substantial amount of energy drink cash comes even more pressure to succeed. Just ask Toro Rosso’s drivers from last year, Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersauri – the pair were deemed to not be future champions by Red Bull head honcho Helmut Marko, and have consequently been released in favour of Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne, the two drivers next in line in the Red Bull Junior Team. The new STR7, whilst hardly looking like anything more than a solid midfield contender, should provide the perfect platform for both men to launch their F1 careers, the extent of Ricciardo’s talent in particular having been up to now masked by the deficiencies of the HRT car during his handful of outings for the Spanish team last year. The two men don’t have time on their side when it comes to the business of proving that they are the worthy successor of Mark Webber at the senior Red Bull team, rendering the stakes higher for Ricciardo and Vergne this year than perhaps for any other driver in the thick of the midfield battle.

Williams F1 Team

Drivers – Pastor Maldonado (YV), Bruno Senna (BR)

Reserve Driver – Valtteri Bottas (FIN)

If Williams is ever going to reverse its apparently inexorable decline towards oblivion, 2012 has to be the year. A new era has dawned at the team as co-founders Frank Williams and Patrick Head have both stepped down from the team’s board since the end of last season, breaking just about the last remaining link modern-day F1 enjoyed with its ‘good old’ less commercialised and professionalised past. The team has jettisoned Rubens Barrichello (who has now committed to racing in IndyCar this season), and brought in another Brazilian in the form of Bruno Senna to partner Pastor Maldonado. The decision to do so may have been partially rooted in financial concerns, Senna bringing valuable backing from Embratel and Gillette, but the nephew of triple champion Ayrton did show glimpses of promise during his stint at Renault late last season. It will be interesting to see how he and Maldonado, who performed solidly last season, fare at the wheel of the new Renault-powered FW34, which has so far looked likes representing a step forward from its ill-fated predecessor. Finland’s next likely F1 driver, GP3 champion Valtteri Bottas, will also compete during selected Friday practice sessions, whilst the signing of new technical director Mike Coughlan could also well signify the start of a long and arduous recovery for this once-great team.

Caterham F1 Team

Drivers – Heikki Kovalainen (FIN), Vitaly Petrov (RUS)

Reserve Driver – Giedo van der Garde (NL)

The newly rechristened Caterham team, which competed under the ‘Team Lotus’ moniker last year, is, much like a year ago, anticipating that this year will finally bring its long-awaited first points. Testing has provided indication that this particular objective may prove a tad on the ambitious side, the new CT01 tending to find itself largely toward the bottom of the timesheets, but that isn’t to say the team has made no progress since last season. If anyone is capable of excelling the capabilities of the car, then it’s Heikki Kovalainen, who drove immaculately last season unfortunately for no tangible recompense. Jarno Trulli meanwhile, in spite of previously being confirmed as a driver for the team this year, has been cast aside in favour of the better-funded Vitaly Petrov, who has performed satisfactorily at Renault for the past two seasons.  This means that for the first time in a World Championship race since 1973, there will be no Italians entered at Melbourne; Giedo van der Garde on the other hand has taken a step towards being the first Dutch driver on the grid in a good five years with the confirmation that he will partake in a number of Friday practice sessions this season.

HRT F1 Team

Drivers – Pedro de la Rosa (E), Narain Karthikeyan (IND)

Reserve Driver – Dani Clos (E)

After a second straight season vying with Virgin Racing (now Marussia) to avoid F1’s ‘wooden spoon’ award, the boys at HRT really need to make something vaguely resembling a step forward in order to guarantee their immediate F1 future. The new F112 was expected to launch in time for the second test at Barcelona after new signing Pedro de la Rosa competed during the first two days of the earlier test at Jerez, but this effort was thwarted when the car failed to comply with all the mandatory FIA crash tests in time. The team eventually overcame this hurdle, but still failed to prepare the car in time for the final test at Barcelona, meaning practice at Melbourne will be the first time the car will have been driven in anger. The arrival of de la Rosa, one of the most experienced drivers in the history of the sport in terms of sheer miles driven, can only be a good thing for the car’s development, whilst Narain Karthikeyan will be keen to show he hasn’t returned to the team (having been forced aside for Daniel Ricciardo mid-way through last season) simply for the sake of his Indian sponsors keeping the team afloat. GP2 racer Dani Clos will also partake in numerous practice sessions for the team, taking advantage of the team’s efforts to become something of a Spanish national effort.

Marussia F1 Team

Drivers – Timo Glock (D), Charles Pic (F)

Reserve Driver – TBA

It has to be said that things are not looking rosy for the rebranded Marussia team. The Russian-owned outfit was hoping that their latest challenger, the MR01, the first in the team’s short history to have been designed using wind tunnel testing, would be ready in time for the final test at Barcelona. Coming a-cropper of its final FIA crash test made that an impossibility however, meaning their new car, along with that of HRT, will not be driven competitively until Melbourne, though the team did attend the second pre-season test at Barcelona with its 2011 design. It should also be noted that the MR01 will be the only car this season to not run with KERS, whilst rumour has it that it will be the only car besides the McLaren not to feature a stepped nose design. There are still causes for the team to be optimistic – the new car is the first to feature the input of new technical consultant Pat Symonds, whilst the modified driver line-up of Timo Glock and Charles Pic, who replaces Jerome D’Ambrosio, is a very sound one, the latter coming off the back of a GP2 campaign in which he showed flashes of real potential. The combined talents of all three of the aforementioned could well be enough to keep Marussia out of the last place in the constructors table it has so begrudgingly occupied for the past two years.

Championship Predictions

It’s still far too early to call this year’s championship, but my prediction can’t be much worse than last year’s – I predicted Alonso as the champion on the strength of Ferrari’s showing in testing and Button to be down in sixth place! Forgive me if I end up being some way off the mark again…

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Alonso, 4. Webber, 5. Button, 6. Rosberg, 7. Massa, 8. Raikkonen, 9. Schumacher, 10. Grosjean, 11. Hulkenberg, 12. Ricciardo, 13. Vergne, 14. di Resta, 15. Perez, 16. Senna, 17. Kobayashi, 18. Maldonado, 19. Kovalainen, 20. Petrov, 21. Glock, 22. de la Rosa, 23. Pic, 24. Karthikeyan

1. Red Bull-Renault, 2. McLaren-Mercedes, 3. Ferrari, 4. Mercedes, 5. Lotus-Renault, 6. Force India-Mercedes, 7. Toro Rosso-Ferrari, 8. Sauber-Ferrari, 9. Williams-Renault, 10. Caterham-Renault, 11. Marussia-Cosworth, 12. HRT-Cosworth

Fancy a Flutter?

I would hardly describe myself as a betting man when it comes to most things in life, but motorsport is a different story. Perhaps more the case than in any other sport, detailed knowledge of F1 can put a wise punter in a strong position to take advantage of the odds offered by the majority of bookies. Here’s a rundown of the outright odds for the front-runners*:

Vettel evens, Hamilton 6-1, Alonso 6-1, Button 10-1, Webber 16-1, Rosberg 25-1, Schumacher 28-1, Raikkonen 33-1, Massa 100-1

At evens, Vettel is tremendous value considering his status as pre-season favourite. Should the German win, a £100 bet would yield £200, money that could be used to cover both Hamilton and Alonso with bets of £25 apiece. Button and Webber, whilst perhaps lesser contenders for the title win, are both tempting choices for each-way bets. Webber at 16-5 in particular isn’t a bad tip to finish in the top three of the championship, whilst it could be argued that Massa is almost worth sticking a fiver on each-way at 20-1 just in case the Ferrari miraculously becomes the car to beat.

That’s all from me for now, but be sure to check back next weekend when I’ll be investigating the trend between the winners of the first race and the eventual championship victor prior to my comprehensive report of the Australian Grand Prix.

* Odds taken from oddschecker.com on 4 March 2012