Australian Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

With the first practice session of the season just hours away, here are my thoughts on how this weekend’s curtain-raising Australian Grand Prix is likely to pan out.

For starters, Red Bull will be there or thereabouts. The RB8 has looked like just about the best overall package throughout pre-season testing, and Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber are thus likely to be very much in the hunt for the first win of the season. While both men will be looking to get their campaign off to a flying start by putting 25 points on the board, it will be interesting to see whether Webber will be able to get on terms with his teammate, who delivered a fairly straightforward victory at the Albert Park circuit last year.  Webber’s track record at his home race on the other hand doesn’t make for terribly promising reading – his best finish in ten attempts at Melbourne is fifth, which he achieved in his very first race at the wheel of a Minardi and has equalled twice since. Bearing that in mind, don’t assume a mediocre result down under means that Webber is in for another season as disappointing as 2011.

The general consensus in the paddock is that McLaren are a close second in the pecking order, with Mercedes, Lotus and Ferrari vying to be best of the rest. Lewis Hamilton finished in second place at Melbourne last year, albeit twenty seconds down the road from Vettel, and all things being equal he should be able to put his McLaren cat firmly among the Red Bull pigeons this time around providing he doesn’t have the kind of brainless collision for which he became renowned last year. Jenson Button will pose a threat too, the allegedly softer 2012-spec Pirelli tyres likely to play into his hands. A shot at victory will however depend on a strong qualifying session for the 32-year-old, whose efforts last year were thwarted by a poor start from fourth on the grid which ultimately led to a drive-through penalty.

The signs during pre-season testing were anything but promising for Ferrari, but a team of their size will be able to rectify the problems inherent in their car sooner or later – the question is whether Mercedes and Lotus will be able to capitalise on the Italian team’s travails while the flaws of the F2012 are still being ironed out. If a couple of the Red Bulls or McLarens hit trouble, a podium for Nico Rosberg, Michael Schumacher or even Kimi Raikkonen can’t be ruled out, though you can bet your bottom dollar that Fernando Alonso will be in amongst that bunch almost regardless of how poorly his car performs. The same sadly cannot be said for Felipe Massa, who runs a serious risk of being swallowed by the midfield pack unless he miraculously closes the gap significantly to his double champion teammate.

The midfield is another tough battle to predict, but Force India look to have a slight edge over Toro Rosso and Sauber. That should give Paul Di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg a good shot at a points finish; both will be undoubtedly be eager to assert themselves over the other from the very off in what promises to be one of the most intense intra-team battles on the grid this season. It will be fascinating to see how Daniel Ricciardo reacts to the pressure of his first home race, especially since he’ll be expected to outperform Toro Rosso stablemate Jean-Eric Vergne in light of having the benefit of eleven starts for HRT last year. The softer Pirellis means a repeat of last year’s one-stopping heroics from Sauber is unlikely, but both Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez should be in the frame to steal a point or two if others ahead of them hit trouble.

The close-fought nature of the midfield fight means scoring points is going to be a tall order for either Williams driver at this stage of the season, though Melbourne’s typical high attrition rate may yet give both Bruno Senna and Maldonado a slender chance of a top-ten finish. Caterham still appear some way off breaking out of its well-established position as the tenth fastest team on the grid, whilst simply finishing the race will be considered an achievement for both HRT and Marussia, neither of whom have run their new cars competitively as of the time of writing.

Qualifying Prediction:

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Button, 5. Rosberg, 6. Alonso, 7. Schumacher, 8. Massa, 9. Raikkonen, 10. Grosjean

Race Result Prediction:

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Button, 4. Alonso, 5. Rosberg, 6. Schumacher, 7. Raikkonen, 8. Massa, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Ricciardo

I appreciate my forecast of Vettel doing the double is hardly what you’d describe as adventurous, but the reality is the German holds all the cards heading into this one. His confidence is sky high, his speed is formidable and the car he’ll be driving (which he has opted to christen ‘Abbey’ this year) is shaping up to the best on the grid yet again. Hamilton will park his McLaren on the front row, but not even the double-DRS zone, located both on the start/finish straight and on the approach to turn 3 this year, will help him catch the seemingly unstoppable wunderkind ahead of him. Button will snatch the final podium place after Webber’s poor home race luck strikes again, perhaps in the form of a botched pit-stop, puncture or collision with Hamilton, while Alonso will be able to haul his Ferrari into a respectable fourth having been outqualified by Rosberg’s Mercedes. Massa will languish in eighth behind former teammates Schumacher and Raikkonen, whilst Hulkenberg and Ricciardo will take the final points of the afternoon with a pair of measured performances. Though Romain Grosjean will make the Q3 cut, I can’t help but get the feeling the Franco-Swiss will be too eager to please on his F1 return, a broken front wing the likely outcome of his over-exuberance.

I won’t be writing qualifying reports this year, as I estimated that writing race previews such as this one featuring my predictions would be more entertaining than a simple blow-by-blow account of qualifying. I will however be writing a comprehensive report of the weekend’s action on Sunday morning, so make sure you check back here a few hours after the conclusion of what promises to be a thriller of an Australian Grand Prix.