Alonso and the Silly Season That Keeps On Giving

In all the 15 years I've been following Formula One, I cannot remember the driver market being as unsettled as it is currently at such a late stage of the season.

By this time last year, we knew that Kimi Raikkonen was on his way to Ferrari; the previous year, the world was aware by late September of the news that Lewis Hamilton had turned his back on McLaren in favour of Mercedes.

There seems to be a growing feeling in the paddock that there may yet be a silly season bombshell of comparable magnitude this year too, despite noises being made by the 'big four' teams to the contrary in recent weeks.

The key man is Fernando Alonso, whose future has been subject to all kinds of speculation for quite some time now despite the Spaniard having a contract to remain at Ferrari until the end of 2016.

Such lengthy deals always tend to have get-out clauses, and it appears that the Scuderia's lacklustre showing this year has triggered a performance clause that has led Alonso to start playing hardball with the newly-installed Ferrari management.

It has been said that Alonso wants a bonus payment for every point earned, not dissimilar to the ertswhile arrangement between Raikkonen and Lotus that almost bankrupted the Enstone outfit.

While Ferrari could undoubtedly afford such a deal, the Italian team is renowned for its dislike of drivers who see themselves as bigger than the collective - and the scent given by Alonso's negotiating tactics is hardly one of being a team player dedicated to the Maranello cause.

Still considered the sport's finest operator by many, Alonso has other options should Ferrari refuse to bow to their star driver's demands. McLaren have been making behind-the-scenes moves to try and lure the 33-year-old for getting on for a year now - so if Alonso's brinksmanship fails, he can be safe in the knowledge that Woking would welcome him back with open arms.

But, moving to McLaren in the first year of its new partnership with Honda - whose engines, it is easily forgotten, were far from the class of the field during the Japanese marque's most recent foray into F1 - would be a big risk, especially when 2015 will be the first full season for Ferrari's promising new regime headed by Sergio Marchionne, Marco Mattiacci and James Allison.

A switch to McLaren may not be Alonso's only option however. The big rumour doing the rounds in Singapore was that Alonso could be on the cusp of switching seats with Red Bull's Sebastian Vettel, an accusation denied by both.

But, that was before the full story of Alonso's negotiations with his team had come to light, and Vettel has long been believed to be at the top of Ferrari's shopping list in the event of Maranello needing a new lead driver.

The way he's been outperformed by new team-mate Daniel Ricciardo must have made the thought of dissolving what is currently the longest-standing team/driver partnership on the grid cross Vettel's mind, especially since his favoured race engineer Guillaume Rocquelin, who has steered the German to four world titles, will no longer be by his side next year. And that's before you consider Adrian Newey taking more of a hands-off role once he's laid the foundations for next year's Red Bull.

But, the prospect of joining a McLaren team seemingly incapable of manufacturing a winning chassis will have hardly tempted Vettel to fly the Red Bull nest. A seat at Ferrari may be a different matter, though - if nothing else, the German would conclude he would easily have the measure of Kimi Raikkonen as a team-mate, whereas being beaten by Danny Ric two years on the trot simply isn't an option.

Even if Vettel were to conclude that his interests are best served by staying put, there's always a chance that Ferrari could orchestrate a swap between Alonso and Ricciardo.

Deserting the team that gave him his big break might seem inadvisable for the Australian, but you can hardly underestimate the potential lure of being drafted in by Ferrari to lead a new era in the team's history. Such a move didn't work out too badly for a certain M. Schumacher, after all.

Then there's Mercedes, which would probably be the team Alonso (along with just about every other driver on the grid) would opt to join if he had free choice.

But, with Nico Rosberg having signed a two-year extension to his contract earlier this year, the only route to Brackley for Alonso would be, as has been suggested in some quarters, if the Spaniard were to exchange seats with Lewis Hamilton, who still has a year to run on his contract.

Such a scenario taking place means Hamilton would have to lose the title to Rosberg in particularly acrimonious style - far from impossible to imagine, but an unlikely prospect now that the Brit has taken the lead of the championship following a seventh victory of the season at Singapore last weekend.

An unlikelier prospect still, however, is the latest story to emerge from the rumour mill turning into reality - that Alonso is bound for the cash-strapped Lotus team.

The disgraced former boss of the Enstone outfit, Flavio Briatore, is said to be trying to broker a deal for Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll (who has also been linked to purchasing Sauber and Marussia in recent weeks) to buy the team and pay for the services of Alonso, as well as the Mercedes engines that the team are ostensibly unable to afford under the current ownership.

Of all the options Alonso may or may not have, surely this one can be written off immediately. Finding a buyer would not miraculously transform Lotus's fortunes overnight; it would be a long-term project nurturing the team back to full competitiveness, probably at least three years - by which point, Alonso would be 36 years old and perhaps a little beyond his prime.

If joining McLaren would be a gamble, plumping for Lotus would be tantamount to re-mortgaging your house, flying out to Vegas and sticking the entire sum on zero at the roulette table.

So, where does all of that leave Alonso? Much depends on the outcome of the negotiations with Ferrari. A move to Mercedes (at least in 2015) looks to be a non-starter; perhaps it's not a surprise that those particular rumblings emerged from the Spanish press, who would no doubt love to see their darling cruise to a long overdue third world championship with a dominant car beneath him.

Of the remaining three options, Red Bull would be the only one worth deserting Ferrari in favour of at this stage. That would require one of the two incumbents at Milton Keynes to move in the opposite direction - a possibility, but only if a swap was arranged by the Scuderia.

Mattiacci's slightly cryptic response to the latest questions about Alonso's future at Singapore is telling. What it indicates is that Ferrari are no longer willing to bend over backwards to accommodate Alonso's every whim - after all, for a team that so famously values loyalty, what is a contract that allows the Spaniard to leave at the first sign of a vacancy emerging at a rival team really worth?

Of course, it's quite possible that Alonso and Ferrari will settle their differences and agree to continue for at least one more year, giving Maranello one final chance to finally rise to the challenge of producing the world-beating car its resources are capable of delivering after five seasons of falling short.

But, such a deal would almost certainly have to be written to allow Alonso to jump ship for 2016 if certain performance-related conditions are not met.

And, if Ferrari fails to come up with the goods again next year, we'll be left with more or less exactly the same scenario - except that Alonso will be one year closer to retirement, perhaps a little more desperate to find a way out of his long-term deal, and that a move to Mercedes or Red Bull may be a more viable prospect than it is currently.

Wherever Alonso moves next - if he does choose to depart Ferrari - is likely to be the place he sees out his F1 career; his decision consequently could well come to define his legacy.

Three titles have already slipped through his fingers, and no doubt several more will too if his choice, whatever it may be, turns out to be the wrong one.

The 2014 Silly Season Gets Underway

Speculation over which drivers are heading where for the following season seems to begin earlier and earlier each year in Formula One, and this year's silly season now appears to have kicked off in earnest following comments from McLaren boss Ron Dennis in the run-up to last weekend's British Grand Prix that Jenson Button needs to "try harder".

The Briton responded to this jibe in the best possible way at Silverstone, taking his best result since the season opener at Melbourne and coming within a second of breaking his podium duck at his home circuit, but it appears to be accepted wisdom that McLaren have been knocking on the door of potential replacements for Button in the form of both Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton.

While it would take a peculiar set of circumstances indeed to compel the latter to re-join the very team he spurned at the end of 2014 to join the now-dominant Mercedes outfit, a return to McLaren for Alonso is a somewhat more viable prospect, albeit not the near-certainty it seemed six months ago prior to Dennis' return to prominence at Woking.

Prior to his dismissal as McLaren team principal, Martin Whitmarsh is understood to have been angling for Alonso to return, travelling to Madrid late last year in a bid to arrange a pre-agreement of sorts with the Spaniard - who himself told the media last year that any lingering resentments towards the team over his tempestuous 2007 season were because of "one man", in whose absence he would have no problem returning.

The man to which Alonso was referring is of course Dennis, but if the two-time champion was to arrive at the conclusion that McLaren and Honda are more likely to provide him with a title-winning car than Ferrari, any personal disagreements would surely be cast aside; equally, it's difficult to see Dennis taking issue to welcoming back to his team the man that many still rate as the very best on the grid.

With Alonso staring down the barrel of his first win-free season since he joined Ferrari, the possibility of jumping ship at the end of the year must surely have crossed his mind on more than one occasion - but with Mercedes and Red Bull all but certain to retain their existing driver line-ups, returning to McLaren is the only other viable option besides staying put at the Scuderia.

But, it's a risky choice: Honda's past success is by no means a guarantee that the Japanese firm's 2015 engine will be of similar quality to their offerings of the late 1980s, while McLaren, despite the vast resources at their disposal, as of late seem to have forgotten how to produce a chassis worthy of contending for the title.

It may thus be a case of better the devil you know for Alonso, who would be well-advised to give Ferrari, now under the stewardship of Marco Mattiacci, one final chance to deliver the goods next season whilst simultaneously keeping a close eye on the progress of the renewed McLaren-Honda alliance as well investigating the possibilities of any vacancies arising at either Mercedes or Red Bull.

Such a scenario gives Button one final chance to end his career on a high note after two seasons saddled with substandard machinery. Coming into this season, it seemed conceivable that this season may have proven the last in the sport for the 34-year-old, but the way he has responded to the challenge of fending off young Kevin Magnussen in the other side of the garage has been admirable.

But, if the second most senior driver on the grid looks to have done enough to prolong his career, things look a great deal less certain for the elder statesman. Kimi Raikkonen has endured an utterly torrid season, having been out-qualified 7-2 by teammate Alonso so far this year and having finished no higher than seventh place. The Finn languishes down in 12th in the drivers' standings on 19 points, versus 87 for the Spaniard.

On only two occasions this year has Raikkonen appeared even vaguely like the driver who won Ferrari's last drivers' title back in 2007 - at Spain, where he out-qualified Alonso and kept the home favourite at bay until the dying stages of the race, and at Monaco, where a likely podium finish went begging after Max Chilton contrived to give him a puncture during a Safety Car period.

Clearly, this isn't what Ferrari had in mind when they selected Raikkonen to replace Felipe Massa, much less when they agreed to remunerate the Iceman to the tune of a reputed $14m per year. Raikkonen's return to Ferrari was supposed to serve as a reminder to Alonso that no one man is bigger than the team; if he can't regularly challenge the Spaniard, what purpose does his presence at the team serve?

Then there's the question of motivation. Only Kimi himself knows exactly how motivated he is at this late stage in his career, though the fact he has recently gone on record to say that he will probably retire from the sport at the end of his existing contract with Ferrari, which expires at the end of 2015, is hardly the sign of somebody desperate to add a second world title to his resumé.

So, is history destined to repeat itself? Will Raikkonen and Ferrari once again agree to part ways with a year still to run on their contract? The reason the Finn was forced out of the picture last time around in 2010 was because of Ferrari's eagerness to begin their partnership with Alonso, but there appears to be no equivalent on the scene this time around as long as Mercedes and Red Bull maintain their current line-ups.

#450938480 / gettyimages.com

The likes of Nico Hulkenberg and Romain Grosjean would be available; both are ready to step up to a top team and would probably push Alonso harder than an out-of-sorts Raikkonen. But the real question is whether Ferrari are sufficiently desperate to get a younger, hungrier driver in their second car to atone for the embarrassment of effectively announcing that they were wrong to re-sign Kimi in the first place.

Assuming Raikkonen wishes to continue for one more year, therefore, there is likely to be a place for him at Ferrari, all the more so because the team have a ready-made replacement in the form of Ferrari Academy member Jules Bianchi ready to fill the breach in 2016 - who could be stationed at a midfield outfit next year to serve the final year of his apprenticeship after two assured seasons at Marussia.

In the event Raikkonen does decide to hang up his helmet come November, Ferrari could decide to fast-track Bianchi to the seat alongside Alonso next year, which would have the benefit of providing continuity heading into 2016 should Fernando indeed opt to depart Maranello at that stage. Alternatively, the Scuderia could sign either Hulkenberg or Grosjean on a one-year deal before re-assessing their options for 2016.

Elsewhere, Williams and Force India are likely to retain their existing line-ups, although Bianchi, the team's third driver in 2012, would be the obvious option to fill the void at the latter team left by Hulkenberg were the German to be given the call-up by Ferrari. Bianchi could also end up at Lotus in place of compatriot Grosjean if the Franco-Swiss was selected to replace Raikkonen.

Grosjean has expressed his desire to step up to a regular race-winning outfit next year, but Ferrari isn't the only potential destination in that regard. Eric Boullier's appointment by McLaren at the start of the year sparked rumours that Grosjean could be destined for a drive at Woking in 2015, and such a move remains a possibility. But, of the team's existing drivers, it would probably be Magnussen who would have to make way.

That may seem harsh given that the young Dane has done a solid job in a less-than-competitive car this year, but having such an inexperienced driver on board has clearly hindered development of the recalcitrant MP4-29. Loaning Magnussen out to a rival outfit before bringing him back to the fold a couple of years down the line, when the team has returned to winning ways, is an option, much as Williams did with Button in spite of a strong debut season back in 2000.

Either way, it looks as if Grosjean's time at Lotus is coming to an end now that the Enstone outfit have announced a switch to Mercedes power for 2015, which is almost certain to herald the departure of fuel company Total, Grosjean's main backer. Should no vacancies emerge at either Ferrari or McLaren, Force India may be able to offer refuge to the 28-year-old.

Pastor Maldonado, meanwhile, seems certain to remain on board at Lotus as long as his PDVSA cash doesn't dry up - although the Venezuelan state oil concern, in this writer's opinion, should look carefully at the possibility of switching their backing to promising GP2 racer Johnny Cecotto Jr. in the wake of what has been an unacceptably scrappy first half of the season for Maldonado.

One driver set to make his F1 debut next season is Carlos Sainz Jr., championship leader in Formula Renault 3.5, who would replace Jean-Eric Vergne alongside Daniil Kvyat at Toro Rosso. The Russian now has to be regarded as odds-on favourite to ultimately step up to Red Bull ahead of Vergne, which leaves no place for the Frenchman at a team whose raison d'être is to prepare young talents for the senior squad; a third driver role at Red Bull for Vergne could beckon.

Things are looking more fluid over at the cash-strapped Sauber team. The Swiss outfit will be reluctant to drop Adrian Sutil after a single season, but key to the German's fate - along with the somewhat underwhelming Esteban Gutierrez - will be money. Ex-Caterham driver Giedo van der Garde, the team's third driver, could well make his race return next year at Hinwil on that basis, while Sergey Sirotkin and Simona de Silvestro are also options for the team, albeit much riskier ones.

It's a similar story at Marussia, where there is set to be at least one seat up for grabs as Bianchi moves up the pecking order. Chilton could yet remain for a third season depending on the state of his finances, with last year's GP2 champion Fabio Leimer a prime contender to join the Banbury outfit. Jolyon Palmer, who currently leads the points in the official feeder series, could also be in contention if the requisite money can be found.

It's unclear whether Caterham will be on the grid next year, let alone who will be driving for the team recently sold by a disillusioned Tony Fernandes. Colin Kolles' involvement in the beleaguered squad's sale to a group of Arab investors has also raised questions of whether the squad will be merged with the Romanian-backed Forza Rossa outfit, which has been granted an entry by the FIA for 2015.

Assuming there is an 11th team, Marcus Ericsson is likely to stick around, although he could take his cash to Marussia if the Leafield-based team don't resurface next year. On the other hand, Kamui Kobayashi surely doesn't have the money to remain on board for a second year and would probably be replaced by a well-funded GP2 racer; Julian Leal and Rio Haryanto have driven for the team in testing, while Nathanael Berthon has recently been announced as a junior driver for the squad.

The Silly Season 2013

Though many paddock observers saw it coming, the recent announcement of Mark Webber's impending retirement from Formula One has inevitably intensified rumours over which drivers may be heading where next year, bringing an earlier than usual start to 'The Silly Season'.

Webber's departure for Porsche's endurance racing programme means there will be at least one top-line drive up for grabs. If Felipe Massa, who has been struggling for form in recent races, is ditched by Ferrari, there could be two vacancies among the top teams, which could prompt a major re-shuffle of the grid.

It appears that Kimi Raikkonen heads Red Bull's wish list of drivers who could partner Sebastian Vettel at the moment, with the Milton Keynes outfit apparently eager to have a proven and reliable points-gatherer at the helm of their second car.

However, questions have to be asked of whether it is really in the team's best interests to have someone as threatening to Vettel's de facto number one status as Raikkonen is likely to be. It's highly improbable, after all, that the Finn is going to be any more sympathetic to obeying team orders than Webber has been.

Besides, there's no guarantee Raikkonen would choose to forsake Lotus in favour of Red Bull. The "Iceman" is said to enjoy the atmosphere at Enstone, and would no doubt balk at the thought of the media commitments Red Bull would like to have him fulfil.

What's more, if Lotus can maintain the kind of form they showed at the Nurburgring, where both Raikkonen and teammate Romain Grosjean challenged for the win, the odds are that Kimi will opt to stay put.

Should Raikkonen indeed spurn Red Bull, that would, by the team's own admission, essentially leave them with a choice between Toro Rosso teammates Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne. It's fairly marginal, but the evidence so far leans towards the former despite the higher points haul of the latter during their time as teammates.

This can be explained by the fact that, while both Ricciardo and Vergne have had a roughly even amount of stand-out drives, it just so happens that, largely down to circumstances, Vergne has been able to finish slightly further up the points on those occasions.

Ricciardo's greater consistency, particularly in qualifying, is reflected in the fact that the Aussie has out-qualified Vergne in 22 of a possible 29 races, and can boast six Q3 appearances (including in each of the last three Grands Prix) against the Frenchman's two.

Either way, you have to question the point of Red Bull's links with Toro Rosso, as well as its young driver programme more broadly, if they pass up both Ricciardo and Vergne in favour of the man who will be the elder statesman of the F1 grid in 2014.

Should that be the case, there will be of course be a seat at Lotus that needs filling. While the team is bullish over its prospects of retaining Raikkonen, they would be well advised to consider who they may like to replace the Finn should they find themselves unable to convince him to stay.

Nico Hulkenberg is virtually certain to be on the market as a result of Sauber breaking his contract through non-payment, and would surely be an attractive prospect to Lotus if they were in need of a replacement for Raikkonen, though the German is likely to also be on Ferrari's radar.

A potential link-up with Ferrari was regarded to be the main motivation for what can now be considered perhaps an ill-judged move from Force India to Sauber, while, as has become traditional for this time of year, Massa is under pressure to retain his drive.

Conversely to last year, when the Brazilian raised his game after an abysmal start to the year, Massa's form has taken a dive at a critical phase of the season, with his early spin into retirement at the Nurburgring the latest in a sequence of costly errors during the last few races.

It's not too late for Massa to turn his situation around, as last year proved, but Ferrari ought to consider who they may like to replace Alonso as their number one driver in the longer term. Hulkenberg is one option to slot in alongside the Spaniard next year, and would probably be at least as competitive as Massa as well as considerably cheaper.

Another contender is Marussia's Jules Bianchi, who is a member of Ferrari's young driver academy and has already built a sound reputation for himself despite the inadequacy of the machinery at his disposal. Ferrari would nonetheless be a gigantic step up for the Frenchman, and a couple of seasons with a midfield team would do him no harm.

Should Massa be dispensed of by Ferrari, he could potentially find refuge at Lotus, although such a move would probably hinge upon Raikkonen moving to Red Bull - Romain Grosjean seems likely to retain his seat if he can maintain the kind of form that saw him finish on the podium at the Nurburgring, particularly when you consider his links to team principal Eric Boullier.

Even then, there's no guarantee Lotus would opt for Massa over a more exciting young talent like Hulkenberg or Paul Di Resta. That means, if he does lose his Ferrari seat, Felipe could find himself in the cold with both McLaren and Mercedes having their existing drivers under contract for next year.

Sauber, whose financial troubles have been the subject of much speculation recently, announced this morning that their immediate future has been guaranteed by an investment by a number of Russian companies, which inevitably will mean a Russian driver at the wheel of one of the Swiss cars.

It seems that man, as one may have assumed, will not be former Renault and Caterham driver Vitaly Petrov. Instead, the investors' preferred candidate is the 17-year-old Formula Renault 3.5 driver Sergey Sirotkin, who stands to become the youngest ever man to start an F1 race if he does indeed take to the grid in March.

It is however hard to see Sirotkin, who is currently only in his third full season of car racing, being able to handle the pressure of motorsport's pinnacle at such a tender age. It could transpire to be a terrible waste of potential for a driver whose results so far suggest that he has what it takes to become Russia's first Grand Prix winner.

Regardless, with Esteban Gutierrez unlikely to be dropped from the team unless his Mexican sponsorship money dries out, it would be Hulkenberg who would get the axe to make way for Sirotkin. If the German is unable to secure a drive at either Ferrari or Lotus, he would be left in a difficult position.

A vacancy at his former Force India team is only likely to appear if Di Resta is snapped up by a larger team, with both he and Adrian Sutil having performed well so far. Williams meanwhile are unlikely to drop either Valtteri Bottas, who has impressed this year, or Pastor Maldonado, whose Venezuelan state oil money is too valuable to lose.

Toro Rosso will be a closed shop for Hulkenberg as well, with Ricciardo and Vergne both likely to stay on for a third season if neither is promoted to a Red Bull drive, and Formula Renault 3.5 driver Antonio Felix da Costa first in line to step in to any vacancy that may open up at Faenza.

Caterham have Charles Pic under contract for next year, but Giedo van der Garde's drive could come under threat from one of a number of similarly well-financed drivers. One possibility is GP2 driver Felipe Nasr, who is fighting for the title this season in just his second year in the category. The Brazilian could also slot into a Marussia seat if Bianchi departs for pastures new.

Alas, the driver market will remain largely up the in air until two key decisions are made: one by Kimi Raikkonen, and the other by the upper management at Ferrari; careers could be made or broken in the next few months based upon what the outcomes of those decisions are.