28 September 2013

MotoGP's Marquez era

Just five rounds remain in this year's MotoGP season, and there's every chance that we could be crowning the series' first rookie champion since Kenny Roberts Sr. all the way back in 1978.
Marc Marquez's performances so far this year have marked the young Spaniard as nothing short as a phenomenon. His pace isn't surprising - he demonstrated that lucidly in the Moto2 and 125cc classes - but his sheer consistency is.
Marquez may be riding the best bike in the field, but the fact he has finished on the podium in every race bar one (the sole exception being Mugello, where he crashed) must give his opposition some serious food for thought. If he's this good in his first season, how good is he going to be three or four years down the line?
Marquez has already beaten Valentino Rossi's benchmark of 10 podium finishes in his rookie season, set in the his first season on 500cc machinery in 2000. And, arguably, Marquez has been able to do so in the face of stiffer opposition than the Italian encountered.
Jorge Lorenzo has been, certainly in recent races, Marquez's most formidable foe. The Yamaha rider has re-gained the momentum he lost when he fractured his collarbone during practice for the Dutch TT, winning the last two races in very contrasting styles - coming out on top in an epic last-lap duel with Marquez at Silverstone, and simply galloping away from the rest of the field at Misano.
Yamaha are bullish about their prospects for the rest of the year, but it will be no easy task for Lorenzo to deny his compatriot Marquez the crown. The gap between the pair stands at 34 points; with five races left, Marquez can afford to finish second at each of them to assure himself of the title.
What about the other rider still realistically in the title hunt, Marquez's Repsol Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa? Unfortunately, his chances of finally claiming that elusive maiden premier-class crown are looking frail, despite being level on points with Lorenzo.
For one thing, Pedrosa cannot rely on having a bike advantage in the same way that Lorenzo may be able to. He has to beat Marquez purely on merit, something he hasn't managed to do since Catalunya all the way back in June. You have to go back further still, to Le Mans in May, for Pedrosa's last race victory.
As Toby Moody pointed out in a recent column for Autosport, it must be pretty demoralising to see your teammate dislocate his collarbone mere hours before the start of a race, just as Marquez did at Silverstone, only for him to beat you just as easily as he managed at the last race.
The situation must surely beg the question of whether Pedrosa, the man who boasts the unenviable record of having racked up the most premier class wins without having won a title, is ever going to break his duck.
It's mighty unfortunate for Pedrosa that, just as Casey Stoner departed the scene whilst still more or less at the peak of his powers, he ends up with perhaps the most impressive rookie the championship has ever seen as his teammate.
Back in April, I thought Pedrosa's window of opportunity, before Marquez would get well and truly up to speed, would last at least a year, particularly given his strong form towards the end of last year. But, in reality, it lasted less than half a season. It's difficult to see where he goes from here.
It's a mighty shame, in many ways, that Stoner decided to leave MotoGP at the time he did. Had he remained this year, Marquez may have been forced to ride a satellite Honda, thereby giving us a tantalising glimpse of his potential rather before having his considerable talent unleashed by a factory ride.
What's more, a Stoner-Marquez battle for supremacy, both aboard Repsol Hondas, would have been a spectacle to behold. A Stoner comeback seems a dim prospect at best, but it would provide a welcome layer of intrigue to proceedings if Marquez were to start to dominate in a Rossi-like fashion.
The tragic death of Marco Simoncelli at Sepang towards the end of 2011 has also, in retrospect, robbed fans of another potential rival to Marquez. The lanky Italian was poised to be the ideal successor to Rossi in the lineage of Italian Grand Prix racing heroes, and would have surely been capable of at least giving Marquez a decent run for his money.
Without wishing to take anything away from the likes of Andrea Dovizioso and Andrea Iannone, it seems that Italian fans have a while to wait yet for their next real championship contender. Spain, on the other hand, seem to have no shortage of talent making their way through the Moto2 and Moto3 classes.
The next Spaniard poised to make his MotoGP debut is Pol Espargaro, Marquez's closest challenger in Moto2 last season. Yamaha appear to be hoping that he can become a serious threat to Marquez sooner rather than later, having signed Moto2 title contender Pol Espargaro to ride for Tech 3 Yamaha next season.
But, Espargaro may be forced to wait for a factory Yamaha seat for a few seasons yet. Lorenzo, probably the Japanese factory's biggest asset, is going nowhere soon, whilst Rossi's marketing value can hardly be underestimated even if he's not quite the rider he was five years ago.
That said, Yamaha would surely jump on the chance to sign Marquez if he was to become available. MotoGP's commercial rights holder, Dorna Sports, would no doubt love such a move to come off, as it would fuel fan interest much as Rossi's switch to Yamaha from Honda did back in 2004.
That particular plot-line, combined with Rossi's peerless charisma and his rivalries with riders such as Max Biaggi and Sete Gibernau were sufficient to maintain interest in the sport even while 'The Doctor' set about racking up the wins. Contrast that to the Mick Doohan era of the mid-to-late nineties, when spectator interest dipped and World Superbikes consequently took up the slack.
At the height of Doohan's supremacy in 1997, there were few, if any, other riders in the field who could be considered of the Australian's calibre. That shouldn't be the case in a hypothetical Marquez era, if only because Lorenzo still theoretically has at least five or so good years left in him.
But, it's too soon to say whether up-and-coming riders such as Espargaro and Scott Redding will be good enough to challenge Marquez. Let's hope that they are, or else this next chapter of MotoGP history may not be looked back upon particularly fondly.

22 September 2013

Singapore Grand Prix 2013 - Report

The Singapore Grand Prix was, in many ways, a crucial race for Formula One, being the first race since the blockbuster film Rush, which has grabbed plenty of press coverage for the sport, was released in cinemas.

I suspect that a considerable number of people, many of whom probably had never hitherto thought twice about sacrificing two hours of their Sunday afternoon watching some motor race, will have tuned in today off the back of having seen Ron Howard's depiction of the classic 'Hunt v. Lauda' story.

For the first 25 laps, I was fearful that, as Sebastian Vettel effortlessly cruised towards his seventh victory of the year, many of these first-time viewers would switch off their TV and never watch F1 again.


Then, Daniel Ricciardo turned what was becoming a rather soporific affair into an intriguing, if not thrilling, spectacle by nestling his Toro Rosso into the crash barriers and bringing out the Safety Car.


Up until that point, it was only at the first corner that Vettel was even remotely threatened. The champion-elect didn't make the cleanest getaway from pole position, offering Nico Rosberg, who started alongside on the front row, a fleeting chance to jump his compatriot at the first corner. 


The Mercedes driver went for the inside but misjudged his braking and ran wide, allowing the Red Bull to slip back past. That was essentially it as far as the battle for the win was concerned, as by the end of the first lap, Vettel had established a cushion of 1.9 seconds over Rosberg.

Five laps later, he had pulled out his advantage to 6.6 seconds, demonstrating the same kind of crushing superiority over the remainder of the field that saw F1's TV ratings take a knock at the peak of the Schumacher era.


Behind Rosberg, Fernando Alonso was already up to third place from a disappointing seventh on the grid. The Spaniard made his customary excellent start, sweeping around the outside of his competitors to haul his Ferrari up to where it had no real right to be.

Next up were Mark Webber, Romain Grosjean, Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton, who was ordered to surrender his position to the Brazilian having passed by gaining an advantage by running off-track. Behind the second Mercedes were Jenson Button, Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez.

This is how the order in the top 10 remained until the first round of pit-stops was initiated by Kimi Raikkonen, who was lurking just behind Perez having grabbed a couple of positions after starting a lowly 13th on the grid. The Finn had been complaining of back pain prior to qualifying, but this didn't seem to affect his performance during the race.


Raikkonen headed for the pit-lane at the end of lap 10, equipping a fresh set of the option tyres. His early stop saw him jump ahead of Hulkenberg and Perez, whilst the only other change in the top 10 during the pit-stop sequence was that Massa lost a place to Hamilton.


Vettel continued to lead by eight seconds from Rosberg, with the yet-to-stop Force India of Paul Di Resta up to third place and holding up Alonso. The Scot finally pitted on lap 20, by which time the Ferrari driver was eight seconds behind Rosberg and 17 off the race lead.


Prior to the Safety Car period, the only other change for position inside the top 10 was Hulkenberg letting Perez through into the final points-paying position after defending his position by running beyond the confines of the track at turn 7. The Sauber driver felt hard done by, trying to plead his case over the team radio, but, to Hulkenberg's credit, he didn't let this setback faze him.


Ricciardo's incident saw a welcome re-shuffling of the pack. The majority of the field took the opportunity to make a second stop, with the notable exceptions being Vettel, Rosberg, Webber and Hamilton. This quartet duly assumed the top four positions ahead of Alonso, Grosjean, Di Resta (who didn't stop having only just been in the pits five laps earlier), Massa, Button and Raikkonen.


Anybody anticipating that the Safety Car would re-ignite the fight for the lead quickly saw their hopes dashed. Vettel, told by race engineer Guillaume Rocquelin to "use the tyres", escaped at even brisker rate upon the restart on lap 31 than he had done at the start of the race.

The German edged around 2.5 seconds further away from the opposition each lap, his lead standing at 13.3 seconds by lap 35. By this stage, Grosjean had been ordered into the pits to address a pneumatic issue with his engine, which, after an agonising wait in his pit-box, led to the Frenchman's retirement.


It was a mighty shame for the Frenchman, who up to that point was enjoying his most convincing race of the season yet. You could tell that he most likely knew as much when he cried "no!" over the team radio after being informed of his car's problem.

Webber, one of the group of drivers to not pit under the Safety Car, came in for his second stop at the end of lap 40, followed by Rosberg the following lap, Di Resta and Massa on lap 42, Hamilton on lap 43 and Vettel on lap 44.


Vettel's advantage was so gargantuan that he was able to re-join the track without so much as  relinquishing the lead. From there, it was a simple case of looking after the car for the remaining laps.



Up to second now was Alonso, still showing decent pace on the prime tyres he equipped during the Safety Car period. Having used both tyre compounds, there was no obligation for the Spaniard to stop again; he therefore set about trying to eke out his rubber until the chequered flag.

Trying to do likewise were Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen, who had both pitted during the Safety Car period and were up to third and fourth places.  It was abundantly clear however that the Lotus was more effective at nursing its tyres than the McLaren. 

Button did well to frustrate his rival for as long as he did, Raikkonen finally seizing third place on lap 54 with a bold move around the outside at turn 15. In the meantime, those that had stopped recently were carving their way back through the order.


This group, now led by Webber following a slightly slow stop for Rosberg, managed to see off Esteban Gutierrez, Hulkenberg, Perez and finally Button, all of whom were struggling badly with degradation, in the final dozen laps.


All the while, Vettel was cruising to an inevitable 32nd career victory, Alonso hanging on for second but a massive 32 seconds down on his adversary at the chequered flag. Having dispatched Button, Raikkonen managed to bring his car home for an unlikely podium finish in third.


Webber ought to have finished in fourth place, but with a couple of laps to go was instructed by the team to short-shift to preserve the car, which was suffering from a water pressure problem. The Aussie began to haemorrhage places on the final lap before finally having to park the Red Bull as it spectacularly caught fire.


Webber caught a ride back to the pits with Alonso on the slowing-down lap, but this breach of the regulations earned both men a reprimand. As it was Webber's third of the year, he will take a ten-place grid drop for the next race at Korea.


The late drama gifted fourth place to Rosberg, with Hamilton next up in fifth. Di Resta may have finished sixth, but instead undid his good work with a trip to the barriers at turn 7 with just six laps remaining - his third successive retirement.


That gifted sixth place to the three-stopping Massa, with the McLarens of Button and Perez limping home in seventh and eighth places. Hulkenberg banked two more valuable points for Sauber, though Gutierrez, who made his first Q3 appearance on Saturday, slipped behind Adrian Sutil and Pastor Maldonado in the closing stages and finished 12th.

Valtteri Bottas and Jean-Eric Vergne both had subdued races, coming home 13th and 14th, with Webber classified in 15th ahead of Giedo van der Garde, who impressively ran ahead of Bottas in the early stages, Max Chilton, Jules Bianchi and Charles Pic.


So, with a 60 point advantage now in Vettel's pocket, most bookmakers are no longer taking bets for this year's championship. Now, the question is where, rather than if, the German will be crowned.


It's impossible for Vettel to wrap things next time out at Korea, but if he can extend his cushion to 100 points by the end of the Japanese Grand Prix, it would be enough to seal the deal. More likely, however, particularly given Alonso's consistency as of late, is that the coronation would take place in India.


There's always next year, I suppose. I just hope that those that tuned in for the first time today can be convinced to give F1 another try in March.

19 September 2013

Singapore Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend's Singapore Grand Prix commences the 'third act' of the Formula One season, with a series of seven flyaway races held in the space of just ten weekends rounding off the year.

Singapore may be one of the calendar's newer fixtures, having held its first Grand Prix in 2008, but it has already established itself as a staple venue by virtue of being the sport's only night race, the cars glistening under the floodlights as they negotiate the twisty Marina Bay street circuit.

The drivers and team personnel also have the additional challenge of trying to keep themselves in tune with European time, so as to not be tired for the start of the race at 8pm local time. This means getting up and having breakfast around midday, lunch at dinnertime, and an evening meal well into the early hours of the morning before going to bed.

To make matters harder, the race itself is the longest of the year in terms of duration. In five editions of the race, the scheduled 61 laps have never been completed in less than an hour and 56 minutes, whilst an extended Safety Car period last year meant that the race had to be cut short after reaching the two hour time limit. Indeed, there has yet to be a Singapore Grand Prix without a Safety Car period, potentially making pit-stop timings crucial to success (just ask Renault, who proved exactly that back in 2008).

That said, unlike other street venues such as Monaco, overtaking is far from impossible at Singapore, particularly with the help of DRS. The original zone, located on the long straight at Raffles Boulevard on the approach to Memorial corner (turn 7), is supplemented this year by another along the start/finish straight, though it seems unlikely that the relatively short latter zone will generate much passing.

The unpopular 'Singapore Sling' chicane (turn 10) has also been smoothed into a single-apex left hander for safety reasons; it is estimated that this modification will save drivers around a second per lap.

The medium and super-soft tyres will be in action this weekend, the first time since the Canadian Grand Prix that two non-consecutive compounds will have been used. But, weather forecasts suggest a possibility of rain this weekend - an unprecedented occurrence at Singapore. It would be fascinating to see how the race organisers would respond to the tricky combination of a wet track and 1500 floodlights beaming down on it.

The big news since the last race at Monza is, of course, that Kimi Raikkonen has been signed to drive alongside Fernando Alonso at Ferrari for next season. Since the announcement was made last week, there has been no shortage of high-profile figures questioning the logic of the Scuderia of placing "two roosters in the same hen-house."

Michael Schumacher has described an Alonso-Raikkonen pairing as "explosive", whilst Alain Prost has questioned whether Stefano Domenicali will be up to the challenge of managing the pair. Jacques Villeneuve, always one to call a spade a spade, believes Ferrari's decision makes them "completely insane," while Rene Arnoux has cast doubt on Alonso's ability to cope with a teammate as rapid as Raikkonen.

Whilst I have to admit that signing Nico Hulkenberg would have probably been a wiser decision, those that believe that Maranello will tear themselves apart, much like McLaren did in 2007, are wide of the mark. For one thing, Alonso is a far more mature and sensitive driver today than he was six years ago, and will be all too aware that a unified team is a successful one.

What's more, the trouble with Alonso at McLaren was that he was arriving at a new team expecting to be able to mould it around him. Conversely, the Spaniard has already firmly established himself in the team's affections, and an apolitical driver like Raikkonen is hardly likely to change that. Though Alonso won't have the benefit of a subservient number two like Massa, having a more competitive teammate would better serve his own interests - as long as he can beat him.

As for Massa, I've already written about his options for next season, but if reports that Lotus are closing on a deal to sign Hulkenberg are to be believed, then that could make Sauber the most likely destination for the Brazilian in 2014.

Sebastian Vettel, meanwhile, needn't concern himself with such trivial matters as the team for which he'll be driving next season. The winner of the last two Grands Prix at Singapore will be focusing purely on making it a hat-trick this weekend, and given Red Bull's pace in recent races, you would have to be a brave person indeed to bet against the German doing just that.

Mercedes may not have performed especially well at the last two races, but the fact that the Brackley outfit were able to lock out the front row and subsequently take victory at Monaco must give Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg more optimism of challenging for the win than usual. The track layout isn't too dissimilar to that of Hungary, where Hamilton dominated proceedings, though temperatures will be much lower.

Alonso has nothing to lose now, 53 points adrift of Vettel in the title chase, and it seems likely that Ferrari will switch their full attention to next year's challenge after this weekend. That said, Singapore tends to be one of the more unpredictable races of the year, so perhaps the team will be willing to throw caution to the wind somewhat in a bid to get their man his first win since the Spanish Grand Prix all those months ago.

Then again, just three points separate Ferrari and Mercedes in the battle for second in the constructors' standings behind runaway leaders Red Bull, who have a commanding lead of 104 points. With millions of pounds of prize money at stake, securing the position will now be the main goal for both Ferrari and Mercedes, now that Alonso and Hamilton are both out of realistic contention for the drivers' title.

Further down the pecking order, Singapore is likely to be a key event in determining the outcome of the Caterham-Marussia battle for tenth in the constructors' table. Last year, Timo Glock's exceptional drive to twelfth place was enough to put the Banbury-based team ahead of its rivals, only for Vitaly Petrov to reverse the tide for Caterham at the very last race of the year at a rain-soaked Interlagos.

Singapore tends to have a higher attrition rate than most, making it a golden opportunity for F1's lesser celebrated teams to bag a big result. Hulkenberg managed to drag his reluctant Sauber to fifth at Monza two weeks ago - can Force India, Toro Rosso or even Williams match that achievement this weekend?

Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Alonso, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Grosjean, 8. Massa, 9. Di Resta, 10. Maldonado

Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Alonso, 4. Webber, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Massa, 7. Button, 8. Di Resta, 9. Maldonado, 10. Sutil

Accuse me of being unadventurous if you will, but I just can't see past a seventh Vettel victory of the year. His dominance at Spa and Monza suggests that there are essentially no tracks where the Red Bull won't be in contention, and, barring a gearbox failure similar to Hamilton's last year, he will prove unstoppable once more this weekend and take another stride towards retaining his title.

Hamilton will start and finish second, keeping a faster Alonso frustrated in the closing stages. Webber meanwhile will come out on top of an entertaining duel with Raikkonen, with Massa having a solid but unspectacular run to sixth ahead of Button. Di Resta will bring home a solid haul of points at a track he has performed well at in the past, with Maldonado also translating his street circuit prowess into two more precious points for Williams ahead of Sutil.

No sign of Grosjean or Rosberg - they will prove the highest profile casualties of the grueling 61 lap race.

14 September 2013

What next for Felipe Massa?

It’s easy to overlook the fact that, had events at Interlagos five years ago unfolded just slightly differently, the career of a Formula One champion would now be in a state of limbo.

Though the announcement on Wednesday that Kimi Raikkonen will re-join Ferrari next season alongside Fernando Alonso leaves Felipe Massa facing an uncertain future, that isn't to say the Brazilian's time as a top Grand Prix driver is up.

Massa’s struggles since Alonso joined him at Ferrari at the start of 2010 have been well documented. It’s fair to say that the Scuderia have been more tolerant of his lacklustre form than most teams would have been, given Felipe's status as "one of the family."

Massa leaving the team is likely to benefit both parties. While Ferrari now have a driver that can stretch Alonso further and allow the team to mount a more credible challenge for constructors' honours, Massa has a chance to revitalise a career that clearly was heading nowhere.

At only 32 years of age, Massa is hardly past it. The talent that saw him come so agonisingly close to title glory in 2008 is still there, even if his terrible accident at Hungary the following year may have deprived of him of that final percent of raw speed he once possessed.

As Massa’s compatriot Rubens Barrichello can demonstrate, there can be life after Ferrari. Few would have foreseen that, having left the Prancing Horse (voluntarily, it should be added) at the end of 2005, 'Rubinho' would go on to make a further seven podium appearances, including two wins. That's not a bad return for somebody who never got anywhere near winning a world championship.

As such, it's not totally unrealistic to think that Massa, armed with sufficiently competitive machinery, couldn't go on to rack up quite a few more wins even if he's highly unlikely to get a better shot at the title than the one he had five years ago.

Raikkonen's departure from Lotus leaves an obvious vacancy, by far the most attractive of the remaining seats (technically, McLaren are yet to take up their option on Jenson Button, but that seems a formality). While Massa isn't the only contender, with Nico Hulkenberg and Pastor Maldonado also thought to be under consideration, he would make a good fit for a team that still burns with ambition.

The Enstone-based team, which has raced under the Toleman, Benetton, Renault and Lotus guises throughout its history, is no stranger to winning titles. It took back-to-back championships in 1994 and 1995 with Michael Schumacher, and did so again with Alonso in 2005 and 2006. 

The team may be going through a financial rough patch at the moment, but, with adequate investment and the right person in the cockpit, there's no reason why they can't challenge for more titles in the future. 

While there's a very good argument for Lotus to take a punt on the talented Hulkenberg (indeed, I would have preferred Ferrari to give the German the nod over Raikkonen), Massa would fit the bill if the team were looking for a more like-for-like replacement for the departed Raikkonen, particularly when you consider that the quick but inconsistent Romain Grosjean is likely to remain in the second car.

Still, should Lotus turn Massa down, there are a couple of other options open to him. One is to return to Sauber, where he began his career back in 2002, who could find themselves in a position to move back up the grid in a couple of years' time with the help of Russian funds that will be flowing to Hinwil in exchange for granting the Formula Renault 3.5 driver Sergey Sirotkin a race seat next year.

Esteban Gutierrez's seat with Sauber appears in doubt with the Mexican's chief backer Telmex rumoured to be unveiled as McLaren's new title sponsor in December. This would potentially create a gap for Massa to slot into, who would be the perfect foil to the inexperienced Sirotkin. Such a move would probably depend on Ferrari being willing to pay Massa's salary however, perhaps by way of a reduced engine supply fee.

It also depends on Massa being willing to drive for a team whose rightful place is in the midfield, but as last year proved Sauber are capable of punching considerably above their weight in the right circumstances. And, he would be well placed to benefit should a car manufacturer or other major corporation propel the Swiss outfit back towards the front of the grid much as BMW did several years ago.

The other team that may realistically consider Massa is Williams. While Valtteri Bottas is unlikely to be going anywhere soon, Maldonado heading to Lotus next season is not as distant a prospect as it may sound, given the Venezuelan's Grand Prix winner status and his enormous PDVSA backing.

Williams is a team that has unquestionably underperformed in recent years. Had Maldonado not made as many mistakes last season, and if the team had fielded a second driver who was equally quick as him in place of Bruno Senna, they ought to have come sixth, or even fifth, in the constructors' standings rather than the eighth place they ultimately mustered.

A return to the glory days of the 1990s is of course unrealistic with their current financial resources, but, given that Williams employs 520 people, making it the fifth largest team on the grid in terms of personnel, nipping at the heels of the established top teams is what they ought to aim for.

A switch to Mercedes power next year as well as the recent recruitment of former Benetton/Renault Technical Director Pat Symonds are reasons for Williams fans to be optimistic that the team can come to do just that in the not-too-distant future.

As 2012 proves however, any renaissance will be dependent upon having a suitably strong driver in the cockpit to exploit the machinery to its fullest - and that's where Massa comes in. With the team fully behind him, and with relatively little expectation weighing him down, Felipe would be in a far better position to perform at his optimum with Williams than he has been in recent times at Ferrari.

With five or so years potentially left in him at the highest level, trying to add to his win tally of 11 in any of the above three scenarios would surely prove more attractive to Massa than trying to break into another category such as IndyCar.

Barrichello showed last year just how hard trying to forge a career Stateside is after a lengthy spell in F1, and there's little reason to suspect Massa would fare any better without a seat with one of the series' top teams. Brazilian Stock Cars hasn't exactly proved a particularly happy hunting ground for F1 alumni, either.

Massa still has much to offer F1; in the right environment, the talent that flourished so brightly in 2008 could well come to the fore once again. In many ways, though, taking him on would represent more of a gamble than recruiting a well-financed young gun, and it would be an almighty shame if no teams were prepared to make that gamble next season.

8 September 2013

Italian Grand Prix 2013 - Report

Following his sixth win of the season at the Italian Grand Prix, it's fair to say that - barring the most extraordinary of circumstances - Sebastian Vettel being crowned Formula One champion for a fourth time in succession is now a mere matter of time.

Monza, the track on the calendar at which downforce matters least, was the last chance for Vettel's rivals to claw back any meaningful ground on the German before the Asian flyaway races. They failed, with Vettel's lead extending to 53 points after a commanding victory, and now it's hard to see how he can be stopped.

Not even the most vociferous cheers from the tifosi were enough to allow Fernando Alonso any chance of reaching the top step of the podium. By the time the Spaniard took second place from a compliant Felipe Massa at the start of lap eight, Vettel, who streaked away from pole position untroubled, was already the better part of five seconds down the road.

The Red Bull driver proceeded to stretch his advantage, which had grown to ten seconds by half-distance. With the expected rain failing to materialise, by this stage Vettel's 32nd career victory was never in doubt. His final winning margin of five and half seconds doesn't do justice to the extent to which the champion-elect dominated the race.

Alonso was thus forced to be content with the runner-up spot, with the second Red Bull of Mark Webber right on his tail in the closing stages but unable to pass. Having started alongside Vettel on the front row, the Aussie slipped behind the fast-starting Massa on the run to the first corner, before being demoted another place by Alonso at the Roggia chicane on the third lap.

Webber was nonetheless able to re-pass Massa during the pit-stop phase to take the final step on the podium at his last ever Grand Prix in Europe. Massa meanwhile brought the second Ferrari home in fourth, but whether that result will be enough to keep the Brazilian in contention to remain at the Scuderia next season is another matter.

Conversely, Nico Hulkenberg's storming drive to fifth place will have done his chances of being promoted to a Ferrari seat no harm at all. The German stunned the paddock by qualifying his Sauber up in third place and, after falling behind the two Ferraris at the start, kept his namesake Nico Rosberg frustrated for the entire race.

Behind Rosberg finished Daniel Ricciardo, taking full advantage of the Toro Rosso's straight line speed to match his best ever F1 result with seventh, with Romain Grosjean and Lewis Hamilton breathing down his neck at the finish.

Hamilton in particular had an eventful afternoon after floor damage during qualifying left him a lowly 12th on the grid. The Brit had been planning to do a long first stint on prime tyres, but made an early pit-stop on lap 13 after picking up a slow puncture whilst stuck behind the other Toro Rosso of Jean-Eric Vergne in the early stages.

By the time the remainder of the field had made their stops, Hamilton had risen to fifth, but fell back to 13th after making a second stop 15 laps from the finish. From there, on much fresher rubber than the cars around him, the Mercedes driver was able to fight his way up to ninth after a series of typically bold passing moves.

Among the cars Hamilton overtook were the two McLarens of Jenson Button and Sergio Perez, who had to be content with tenth and twelfth places, and Kimi Raikkonen, who was forced to pit on the first lap for a fresh front wing after making contact with Perez.

Raikkonen was among the fastest cars on the circuit in clean air, climbing to fifth after the cars ahead pitted, but was unable to make the same incisive progress as Hamilton after his second stop at mid-distance. The Finn finished in eleventh, out of the points for a second straight race.

Esteban Gutierrez put in one of his better performances of his short career to finish thirteenth, ahead of the Williams cars of Pastor Maldonado and Valtteri Bottas, though Adrian Sutil had been running one place ahead of the Mexican when Force India elected to retire the car one lap from home.

Things didn't go any better for Paul Di Resta, who became the first casualty of the race after misjudging his braking at the Roggia chicane on the first lap and slamming into the back of Grosjean's car, though the Frenchman continued unhindered.

The only other retirement was Vergne, who pulled over with transmission failure on lap 15 whilst running ninth.

With Vettel all but certain to clinch this year's title, it's a good time to reflect on the overwhelming success he and his Red Bull team have enjoyed over the past four seasons.

Barring the first half of 2009, when Brawn GP wrong-footed their rivals with their double diffuser, Red Bull have produced by far the most consistent package of the current rules cycle. That however shouldn't detract from the magnitude of Vettel's achievements, who has made the absolute best use of the tools at his disposal and seen off stiff opposition from the other side of the Red Bull garage.

Whilst it hasn't made for scintillating viewing on occasions, not least of all today, you can't help but feel a certain admiration for Vettel, regardless of whether or not you count yourself among the 26-year-old's fans. After all, you can't blame him for the inability of the other teams to match the amazing benchmark set by the boys at Milton Keynes.

Nevertheless, next year gives Red Bull's rivals a chance to rectify this situation, and perhaps Ferrari, McLaren, Lotus or Mercedes will emerge as the dominant force instead. But, whoever is doing the lion's share of the winning, we shouldn't begrudge them their success.

6 September 2013

Italian Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend's Italian Grand Prix at the legendary Monza circuit marks the end of Formula One's European season as well as, arguably, the last chance for Sebastian Vettel's rivals to make up serious ground on the runaway points leader.

Despite a distinct lack of Italians on the F1 grid these days, the annual visit to Monza is always one of the most atmospheric events of the calendar, thanks in no small part to the Ferrari-loving tifosi.

The venue, situated close to the city of Milan, is the oldest the F1 circus visits, having opened in 1922, and those that were there for the inaugural Italian Grand Prix that year would still recognise the circuit today.

The old banking still exists, albeit in an unusable state, and the rest of the track is more or less the same as it was some 90 years ago. The only real differences are the additions of the chicanes at Rettifilo, just after the start/finish straight, Ascari and Roggia in the 70s in a bid to reduce speeds.

Monza's high-speed nature means that, almost uniquely in today's F1 calendar, downforce goes relatively unrewarded. Instead, a high maximum speed, stability under braking and traction out of the chicanes are the most important factors in securing a good lap time.

Similarly to the previous race at Spa, the medium and hard tyres make up the weekend's allocation, but according to the weathermen, rain could yet play a part in proceedings as well. The DRS zones are unchanged from last year, and can be found on the start/finish straight and on the approach to the Ascari chicane after the second Lesmo.

The big news in the past two weeks is that, after much delay, Red Bull finally announced Daniel Ricciardo as their second driver for next season. The announcement, whilst expected, was music to my ears, having been a fan of the big-smiling Aussie since his Formula Three days in 2009.

What puzzled me, however, is that Red Bull opted to make the announcement on Monday evening - whilst much of the F1 fraternity was attending the premiere of Rush. It almost seemed as if the reigning champion team were keen to downplay Ricciardo's appointment, as if they were embarrassed they hadn't succeeded in signing a 'big name' such as Kimi Raikkonen to partner Vettel.

As I've written many times before though, the decision is absolutely the right one. Not only is Ricciardo a better long-term bet than Raikkonen, who will be the eldest driver on the grid next year, he has proven he has the speed to get the job done during his tenure at Toro Rosso.

Not only that, but his technical feedback is said to be excellent and he'll have no qualms carrying out the PR work Red Bull expect him to, unlike a certain laconic Finn. Unless next year's RB10 seriously underperforms, there's no doubt in my mind that Ricciardo will be a Grand Prix winner by this time next year.

With that particular facet of next year's driver market decided, attention will undoubtedly turn towards Raikkonen, who is yet to commit to Lotus for next season amid rumours that a switch to Ferrari could still be on the cards.

Whilst a fresh deal to remain at Lotus seems the most likely outcome for the Finn, the lingering possibility of a reunion with Ferrari will keep the Enstone team under severe pressure to perform. Lotus will thus be hoping that the introduction of their long wheelbase E21 this weekend marks a step forward in performance after a disappointing showing for the team at Spa.

After finishing a strong second two weeks ago, Fernando Alonso must be feeling upbeat about his chances of taking the fight to Vettel this weekend. After all Monza tends to be a happy hunting ground for Ferrari, whilst the next block of races will favour Red Bull - it's an opportunity to gain ground in the championship that Alonso cannot afford to miss if he is to make a contest of this year's title run-in.

With a 46-point advantage in his pocket, Vettel will no doubt be more than satisfied with a solid haul of points before heading to Singapore, the venue where his season really took off last year. Still, it would be foolish to write off the reigning champion for a victory, especially given that he was able to dominate at Monza two years ago.

If the German can extend his points advantage this weekend, it's fair to say that it would take something very much out of the ordinary for him to not clinch a fourth successive title.

Having been touted as Vettel's biggest threat following his commanding victory at Hungary, Lewis Hamilton, last year's Monza winner, saw his championship aspirations suffer a severe blow at Spa. A strong result at a circuit which, on paper, should suit the Mercedes is thus essential for the Brit to keep Vettel in sight.

Jenson Button conversely was very satisfied with his McLaren's improved performance last time out. What's more, the low downforce layout at Monza in theory gives the Woking team their best chance yet of breaking their 2013 podium duck, even if a win remains well out of reach in dry conditions.

But, if the rain does fall this weekend, all bets are off. In fact, with the driver market beginning to fall into place, a wet weekend could be just the thing for a driver to stake a claim to an opening at a better team, or merely to prove they deserve to hang on to their existing drive.

Paul Di Resta, Adrian Sutil, Nico Hulkenberg, Esteban Gutierrez, Jules Bianchi and Giedo van der Garde all fall into the above category, and it will be fascinating to see which of them respond to the pressure the best.

Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Rosberg, 3. Alonso, 4. Vettel, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Webber, 7. Massa, 8. Grosjean, 9. Button, 10. Di Resta

Race Prediction
1. Alonso, 2. Hamilton, 3. Rosberg, 4. Vettel, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Webber, 7. Perez, 8. Grosjean, 9. Di Resta, 10. Ricciardo

Though Mercedes will sweep all before them in qualifying, Hamilton taking a fifth straight pole position, the Ferrari will prove marginally a better race car, allowing Alonso - cheered on all the way by the tifosi - to get the job done and take a decent chunk out of Vettel's points lead. Hamilton and Rosberg meanwhile will hold on to make it two Silver Arrows on the podium with Vettel taking his equal-worst finish of the year in fourth.

Raikkonen meanwhile will have an uneventful afternoon, starting and finishing fifth ahead of Webber, with Perez getting his McLaren well inside the top ten in seventh place. Next will be Grosjean, somewhat unaccustomed to the circuit after sitting out last year's Italian race due to his one-race ban, with Di Resta and an on-form Ricciardo rounding out the points finishers. Button will suffer his first non-finish since Malaysia as a result of an altercation with the perennially under-pressure Massa.

4 September 2013

Expanding IndyCar's appeal

Once considered a major rival to Formula One, IndyCar is at a crossroads. With the introduction of the new DW12 chassis and a return to engine competition, last year marked a fresh dawn for the championship, and series organisers are ready to implement the next phase of their quest to recapture the series' past glories.

A couple of weeks ago, plans were unveiled to expand outside North America with a series of additional races outside of the main IndyCar championship that could form a winter series in early 2015.

While the move is primarily intended to give IndyCar teams some extra revenue during what is otherwise a very long off-season, it would also give the championship some welcome international exposure at a time when its popularity in the US appears to be diminishing.

Losing Danica Patrick to NASCAR at the end of the 2011 season undoubtedly took away a significant chunk of interest in IndyCar, with Dan Wheldon's death at that year's season finale in Las Vegas also casting a shadow over the series. Resultantly, TV viewing figures in the US dropped by a quarter in 2012 in comparison to a year earlier.

That's why plans to expand to new territories are to be applauded, particularly as there is something of a mismatch between the existing IndyCar calendar and the make-up of the grid.

The series currently features just one race outside of North America, on the streets of the Brazilian city Sao Paulo, but, of 21 regular drivers competing in the championship, just seven are North American. Europeans comprise another seven, with the remaining third made up of drivers from Japan, South America and Oceania. It's a truly international field, spanning as many nationalities as the current F1 grid.

It's therefore refreshing that the organisers intend to make a virtue of that fact by hosting some races outside of the confines of North America, which would allow IndyCar to tap into markets where the presence of local drivers would generate enough interest to make a race financially viable.

That's why its such a surprise that Asia is being cited as the main target market for IndyCar's proposed expansion, when you consider that there is only one Asian in the field in the form of Takuma Sato, and that a scheduled street race in the city of Qingdao was cancelled last year when the proposed date clashed with the city's beer festival.

Europe seems a far more logical market to target, given that interest in motorsport is generally higher there than in Asia and that a third of the field is European (including four-time IndyCar champion Dario Franchitti and former Champ Car star/Toro Rosso F1 driver Sebastien Bourdais).

There could be more Europeans on the way, too. After funding issues stood in the way of Luca Filippi graduating from GP2 to F1, the Italian has made the transition stateside with Bryan Herta Autosport, for whom he is contesting four races this year.

Filippi stands a reasonable chance of getting a full-time drive next year, which can't have failed to cross the minds of similarly underfunded drivers currently in GP2 - Stefano Coletti, Sam Bird and Fabio Leimer all spring to mind as drivers easier to picture in IndyCar than in F1.

If the rumours are to believed, a certain Jaime Alguersauri could also be heading to IndyCar. The former Toro Rosso driver has been doing little since losing his seat at the end of 2011 besides testing for F1 tyre supplier Pirelli, but according to Spanish media could find himself testing a DW12 before the year is out.

If a race drive came Alguersauri's way as a result, he would join Bourdais, Sato and Justin Wilson among the ranks of F1 alumni competing in IndyCar. It's a shame the championship didn't make more effort to ensure another member of that elite group from last year, Rubens Barrichello, remained in the fold also.

The former Ferrari star was easily the series' most famous driver last year, and could have been used as an effective marketing tool, particularly in South America. Budget issues forced Barrichello to race in Brazilian Stock Cars instead this season, representing an enormous lost opportunity for IndyCar.

Luckily for the series organisers however, they may have another chance - NASCAR driver Juan Pablo Montoya was informed last month his services are no longer required by his Earnhardt-Ganassi team for next year, which could prompt a return for the former Grand Prix winner and Indianapolis 500 champion to IndyCar.

Whilst Montoya's first preference is believed to be to remain in the Sprint Cup with a competitive team, his underwhelming record of just two wins in 242 starts means the Colombian is unlikely to be of much interest to any of the championship's top teams. It may be a different case in IndyCar, however.

Montoya's former championship rival Michael Andretti - whose Andretti Autosport team won the IndyCar drivers' title last year with Ryan Hunter-Reay - has expressed his eagerness to field Montoya next year if sufficient sponsor money can be found.

The series organisers should be doing everything they can to make this deal happen, and after that, ensure that Montoya doesn't slip through IndyCar's fingers after just one season. In the absence of Danica Patrick, the series needs a star, and, in the short term at least, Montoya fits the bill.

With Montoya, and perhaps even Felipe Massa (if he loses his Ferrari F1 seat at the end of the year), on board, IndyCar would surely be able to add a second date in South America - perhaps at Interlagos - without having to worry about lacklustre spectator attendances.

On a similar note, a possible plan to introduce a race on the Indianapolis road course, used by F1 from 2000-07, seems like a no-brainer. Having only one race a year at the hallowed Brickyard almost seems a waste, given the massive local enthusiasm for the Indianapolis 500.

Such a move would also help redress the balance between road, street and oval venues, with this year's calendar comprising only three road courses against six ovals and seven street tracks. The make-up the calendar in fact strongly resembles that of IndyCar in 1995, when the series' popularity was at its zenith prior to the infamous 'split' the following year.

There's a long, hard road ahead to even approach the heights of the early-to-mid nineties, but IndyCar's plans to expand beyond North American borders are a promising sign that the ambition to do so is there.