21 December 2013

Concluding thoughts on 2013

If I were to sum up the 2013 Formula One season in one word, it would probably be "disappointing". Off the back of 2012, most fans were expecting another ultra-close contest, but, in the event, however, nobody could truly compete with the irresistible combination of Sebastian Vettel and the Adrian Newey-designed Red Bull RB9.

It took until Pirelli's mid-season revision of its tyres, prompted by the spectacular series of tyre failures that threatened to reduce the British Grand Prix to a level of farce comparable to the 2005 United States Grand Prix, before the Red Bull could truly stretch its legs. The fact the tyres were made more durable allowed Vettel to fully express the superiority of the package beneath him which had previously been disguised to a degree by the rapid tyre degradation that characterised many of the early races.

The key to Red Bull's success was their relentless rate of development. Every modification they brought to the track made a tangible difference to their car's pace, whilst certain other teams - notably Ferrari - struggled to consistently make forward steps. The Italian team's technical director Pat Fry admitted that the title began to slip from Fernando Alonso's grasp around the time of the Canadian Grand Prix, when a major update package failed to deliver the expected progress.

The tyre changes didn't help either, rendering moot the Ferrari's best characteristic, its tendency to preserve its rubber during the race. But, even by the time the revised tyres were introduced in earnest in Hungary, Alonso was already all but out of the running for the title. The fact he still managed to finish a clear second in the championship despite having only the fourth best car by season's end is testament to the Spaniard's uncanny ability to maximise his (often limited) scoring opportunities at virtually every race.

The debate as to whether Vettel or Alonso is the better driver rages on, the 2013 season doing little to provide a conclusive judgement one way or the other. Whilst I rated the former as the best driver of the season in my recent top 10, that largely boils down to his ostensibly unrivaled ability to adapt his driving technique to the rigours of the Coanda-assisted cars. Put the pair in a midfield car, and I would expect Alonso to perhaps squeeze out a couple more points than Vettel over the course of a season.

The contention that Vettel must prove himself with a team other than Red Bull in order to cement his place among the greats is nonetheless a somewhat churlish one. After all, Ayrton Senna's failure to win titles for any team besides McLaren is not counted against him, whilst had Michael Schumacher won all seven of his titles at Ferrari, it's doubtful, looking back, fans would think any the less of him for it. Jim Clark, meanwhile, never even drove for any team besides Lotus, let alone win titles for a rival outfit.

That said, sooner or later, Vettel will have to accept not having the best car in the field at his disposal - perhaps as soon as next year if the widespread prediction that Mercedes have produced the best power-train proves correct. But, chances are, should Red Bull experience a fall from grace, it won't take long for Vettel to re-align himself with whichever team are setting the standard. Schumacher's record of seven titles, it must be said, looks vulnerable at this stage.

The realisation that Vettel won't be around forever is what informed Red Bull's decision to recruit Daniel Ricciardo as Mark Webber's replacement off the back of an assured second season at Toro Rosso. Whilst the wide-smiling Aussie is hardly likely to deprive his new teammate of much sleep next season, he has the chance to establish himself as the team's main hope if and when Vettel decides the time is right to forsake the organisation that has helped him to so much success.

When that day arrives, my money would be firmly on Daniil Kvyat, who will be making his F1 debut in place of Ricciardo at Toro Rosso next season, making the step up to the senior Red Bull team. Whilst the young Russian could probably have used a season of Friday test sessions, his rate of improvement in GP3 - of which he was the undisputed king for the final three race weekends - suggests he should be able to find his feet at the highest level quickly. Jean-Eric Vergne best have his wits about him next season.

In a year of disappointments, Mercedes' performance this season was one of the few positive surprises. Vaulting from fifth in the constructors' standings in 2012 to second this year, the W04 was the only car over a single lap that could hold a candle to the Red Bull. Though it almost invariably chewed its tyres during the races, three race wins and eight pole positions is a level of achievement few would have foreseen the Silver Arrows reaching before the start of the year after three largely average seasons beforehand.

Indeed, for what was supposed to be an interim season, Lewis Hamilton must be delighted with his decision to jump ship from McLaren this year, especially after the extent of his former team's troubles became clear. Nico Rosberg also gave his teammate a harder time than many had anticipated, to the extent that many are now tipping the German as next year's title favourite ahead of Hamilton. Whether he can live up to this new-found level of expectation remains to be seen, however.

As for McLaren, nothing could have prepared them for the catastrophe they endured in 2013, the first season during which the Woking-based team failed to secure a podium since 1980. That was the final year of the ancien regime led by Teddy Mayer at McLaren before Ron Dennis took over at the behest of sponsors Marlboro, and there have been reports lately that Dennis could be looking to make a comeback as team principal in the wake of their dreadful performances this year.

Martin Whitmarsh meanwhile has made a bold decision indeed by signing young Danish talent Kevin Magnussen, who will be making his F1 bow next year alongside Jenson Button. The decision to drop Sergio Perez after a single, solid - if not spectacular - season was undeniably harsh, but it indicates no shortage of faith in Magnussen's talent, McLaren being unable to find the young Dane a suitable apprenticeship further down the grid. Perhaps, though, it was Button who should have made way.

This may seem an odd contention, but bear with me. 2014 will be an interim season for McLaren before they join forces once more with Honda the following year, and Whitmarsh has made little secret of his desire to lure Alonso into the fold in 2015 - even going so far as to travelling to the opening of the Spaniard's personal museum in Madrid a few weeks ago. Assuming such a move comes off, next year could have acted as a shootout between two, hungry young guns to partner Alonso at the dawn of McLaren's new era.

Instead, Button doesn't just have to prove himself against Magnussen, he has to prove to McLaren that he can still spearhead future title assaults - but the fact that Whitmarsh is so hungry to have Alonso on board suggests that the 33-year-old has a lot of work ahead to prove that is the case. What's more, if Magnussen comes out of the blocks and beats his teammate in year one, it would be fair to assume that would bring down the curtain on the Brit's long and distinguished F1 career.

Whilst things look as if they can only get better for McLaren, Lotus is one team who could be set for something of a slump when you consider their precarious financial situation. The long-running saga of the elusive investment deal from Quantum Motorsports ultimately failed to come to fruition, leaving the team little choice other than to accept the millions on offer from Pastor Maldonado and his native Venezuela's state oil concern PDVSA to fill the cockpit vacated by the Ferrari-bound Kimi Raikkonen.

2013 proved the "Iceman" can still compete with the best of them when the car beneath him is working well and he is fully committed to the cause, but, as was the case during his Ferrari days, his performances wane at an alarming rate if the above criteria are not satisfied. This was the case after the summer break, as the Lotus dropped further behind the Red Bull and speculation over Raikkonen's future intensified. Missing the final two races was arguably nothing short of expected given the circumstances.

Raikkonen's tendency to go off the boil was what allowed Romain Grosjean to build his confidence and assert himself as Vettel's most consistent rival in the latter half of the year. The Frenchman was unlucky to miss out on a maiden win at Germany, but that first trip to the top step of the podium will come in due course. Whether it's with Lotus is another matter; perhaps Grosjean will need to one day leave the comfortable surroundings of Enstone in order to fully thrive as a Grand Prix driver.

The question is now whether Lotus can do to Maldonado what they did with Grosjean - turn a fast driver with a propensity to make frequent errors into a consistently convincing performer. That win at Catalunya last year offered a glimpse into what the erratic Venezuelan can do when everything's going his way, but a final season with Williams marked by over-driving and petulance suggests Maldonado may struggle if Lotus do indeed take a backwards step.

Considering the two teams behind them in this year's constructors' battle, McLaren and Force India, will be using the seemingly favoured Mercedes engine next year, as well as the fact that Lotus have effectively had to almost bankrupt themselves in order to be a front-running outfit for the past two seasons, it's more than possible that the black-and-gold cars could frequently be mired in the midfield ruck next season - hardly conditions in which Maldonado is likely to thrive.

While the consensus in the paddock was that Nico Hulkenberg deserved the vacant seat at Lotus, it could be that Force India transpires to be the better bet in 2014 thanks to its Mercedes powerplant; based on his sparkling form in the Sauber this season, early season podiums for the lanky German next year are a distinct possibility. Having been turned down by Ferrari this year, one would expect Hulkenberg to be in pole position to slot into any vacancy that may have arisen at Maranello this time next year.

Similarly, landing a Force India seat is about the best outcome Perez may have hoped for once it became clear that McLaren would be dispensing of his services, but beating Hulkenberg over the course of a season will be extremely tough. That is precisely what the Mexican will have to do if he harbours ambitions of returning to a top-line drive, however, whilst competition from the likes of Valtteri Bottas and Jules Bianchi for such seats in the coming seasons will be stern.

At the end of 1997, predictions that McLaren would start the following year, which saw a whole raft of technical rule changes, as the pace-setters proved bang on the money, whilst the dominant force of the past few seasons, Williams, suffered a nose-dive in form. It doesn't require too much imagination to foresee a similar scenario unfolding next year, with Mercedes coming out of the traps fastest and Red Bull being demoted a couple of positions in the competitive pecking order.

In fact, the first half of next year could well see the performances of the teams fluctuating wildly as they learn how to get the best from their all-new packages at differing rates, whilst unreliability is likely to prove a decisive factor early in the season. This unpredictability is precisely what F1 needs after an exceptionally dull second half of last year, when viewers knew well in advance that, barring catastrophe, they would be hearing the Deutschlandlied and seeing that famous index finger at the end of each race.

This will be my last blog post until my 2014 season preview in March, so all that remains for me to do is to extend my gratitude to everyone who has read my scribblings this year. I will of course be back to cover all of next year's on-track and off-track action next year, but in the meantime, you can keep up to date with all the F1 news that matters by following @KleinonF1 on Twitter and by reading my ramblings on the soon-to-launch sports website sportontap.com. Until then, have a great Christmas and see you in the new year!

2 December 2013

The Top 10 Drivers of 2013

Now the 2013 season has come to a close, it's time to cast our eyes back over the events of the past eight months and pick out the ten most outstanding Formula One drivers of the year.

The 2013 season may have been dominated by a certain German driver behind the wheel of a blue and purple car, but many other drivers have caught the eye at various stages throughout the year. It was extremely difficult to pick an order, especially for the lower half, but after much careful consideration, this is the list I have come up with:

10. Jenson Button 
Vodafone McLaren Mercedes, 9th in Championship (0 wins, 0 poles, 73pts) - Down 5

With Hamilton moving on from what was a highly competitive McLaren at the back end of 2012 to Mercedes for the 2013 season, Button would have had every reason to be feeling confident back in March. But, it didn't take long before it became obvious that the Woking outfit's design gamble was not going to pay dividends, Button becoming increasingly resigned to scrapping for the minor positions. A solid drive to fifth place in China stood as the Briton's best result until the end of the season at Brazil, where Button stormed his way from 14th on the grid to take fourth, making amends for a string of poor results in the preceding three races.

Whilst Button is hardly renowned for being a one-lap specialist, he will have been disappointed at losing out to teammate Perez in the qualifying stakes, and perhaps, considering his world champion status, that there wasn't more daylight between he and the Mexican in terms of race pace. That said, Button was the more consistent across the course of the year of the two McLaren drivers; the fact he failed to score only five times all year in a car often flirting with the fringes of the top 10 is certainly no mean feat. If the team are able to bounce back in 2014, there's still time for Button to add to his tally of 15 race victories yet.

9. Daniel Ricciardo
Scuderia Toro Rosso, 14th in Championship (0 wins, 0 poles, 20pts) - New Entry

Webber's advancing years meant that there was an awful lot at stake in 2013 for Ricciardo and his teammate Jean-Eric Vergne, both of whom stood a strong chance of promotion to Red Bull if they managed establish superiority over the other at Toro Rosso. Though there was one stage at which it appeared the latter may have been starting to get the better of Ricciardo, the gregarious Aussie upped the ante at precisely the right time, booking his seat at Red Bull with a series of convincing qualifying and race performances as Vergne faded into anonymity in the latter half of the year.

Indeed, Ricciardo was out-qualified by Vergne only four times all year, and made seven appearances in the points versus just three for the Frenchman - including a pair of superb seventh place finishes at China and Italy. However, street circuits proved something of an Achilles' heel for the 24-year-old, retiring from both Monaco (where he was thoroughly eclipsed by Vergne before being rear-ended by Grosjean) and Singapore, whilst poor starts, like his fellow countryman Webber, also occasionally served to undo his hard work during qualifying. These are weaknesses he'll have to eradicate to have any hope of matching up to Vettel at Red Bull next season.

8. Mark Webber
Infiniti Red Bull Racing, 3rd in Championship (0 wins, 2 poles, 199pts) - Down 2

Regrettably for Webber, his final season in F1 has inevitably been defined by events at Malaysia, where Vettel ignored the instruction issued by Red Bull to remain behind his teammate, instead snatching away what most perceived to be Webber's rightful victory. Even more disappointing was the fact that the Australian thereafter failed to register a win all year, whilst his German teammate proceeded to sweep all before him. Two late pole positions demonstrated the one-lap pace was still there, but Webber's apparent inability to adapt his driving style to the demands of the modern breed of Coanda effect-assisted cars proved his undoing.

Nevertheless, there were some fine drivers by Webber over the course of the year, such as at Silverstone, where he lost out on what would have been a fitting retribution for "Multi 21" by the narrowest of a margins to Rosberg. The Red Bull driver was also plagued by bad luck throughout the year, most notably at India, where an alternator problem denied him what would have been a straightforward second place; without such misfortune, he would probably have clinched the runner-up spot in the championship his machinery warranted. Webber's final year in F1 hasn't been his best by a long shot, but nonetheless marks a solid end to a distinguished career at the highest level.

7. Nico Hulkenberg
Sauber F1 Team, 10th in Championship (0 wins, 0 poles, 51pts) - Up 1

During the first half of the season, prior to Pirelli's decision to make its tyres more durable after the fiasco that was the British Grand Prix, it looked as if Hulkenberg had made the wrong decision to jump ship from Force India to Sauber, having racked up only half a dozen points by that stage versus 36 for his former teammate Paul Di Resta. But, as the Force India suffered a competitive nosedive in the advent of the revised tyres, Sauber's improving fortunes allowed Hulkenberg to really begin to shine and cement his reputation as a star of the future.

Monza, where Hulkenberg made full use of the Sauber's strong straight-line speed to qualify a superb third, was the start of this late season flourish, more than doubling his points tally for the year at a stroke by finishing in fifth. After that, the mild-mannered German was never out of the points, save for two occasions when he was not at fault; his drive to fourth at Korea, where he held off the advances of Hamilton for a significant chunk of the race, stood out in particular. Hulkenberg may have been unfortunate to lose out on a seat at the cash-strapped Lotus team for next season, but, with Mercedes engines, it could be that Force India, where he is set to return in 2014, could turn out to be a better bet regardless.

6. Nico Rosberg
Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team, 6th in Championship (2 wins, 3 poles, 171pts) - Re-Entry

It may have been the first time that Rosberg has been out-scored by a teammate in F1 since his maiden season in 2006, but it's also been the first time the German has been partnered with a teammate as well regarded as Hamilton. And, few would have anticipated back in March that Rosberg would end the season quite so close to the former champion in the drivers' standings, with just 18 points separating the pair when the dust settled on the season. Out-qualifying Hamilton, regarded by some as the best qualifier in the business, eight times over the course of the year, including taking a hat-trick of pole positions, is another achievement by Rosberg that few would have foreseen.

Whilst Rosberg was able to rack up two race victories at Monaco and Silverstone this year to Hamilton's sole triumph at Hungary, it's worth remembering that the second of those wins was somewhat fortuitous, the 28-year-old benefiting from a puncture for Hamilton and a gearbox failure for Vettel. And, whilst Rosberg's only non-appearances in the points can be pinned on mechanical maladies of one sort or another, there were perhaps a couple too many occasions where he was simply out-raced by Hamilton - a man he will have to overcome more regularly to put himself in genuine contention for the title next year, as some have tipped him to.

5. Kimi Raikkonen
Lotus F1 Team, 5th in Championship (1 win, 0 poles, 183pts) - Down 1

It's fair to say that Raikkonen's second season of his comeback for Lotus peaked rather too soon - at the very first race, where he took a convincing victory at Melbourne, in fact. The car was undoubtedly capable of more, remaining competitive even after the mid-season revision of the Pirelli tyres, and there were quite a few subsequent near misses for "The Iceman" in his quest to add to his Australian win. Indeed, Raikkonen featured on the second step of the podium more often than anyone else all year, with Bahrain and Hungary standing out as occasions where a lacklustre qualifying performances held the Finn back.

As the second half of the year progressed, and the severity of Lotus's financial woes became clear, Raikkonen's performances appeared to decline accordingly as teammate Grosjean increasingly took over from Kimi as the team's "go-to guy". From Spa onwards, he was out-done by the Franco-Swiss at every race (the Safety Car played an instrumental role in allowing Raikkonen to beat Grosjean at Korea), but perhaps his motivation to perform was flagging once his move to Ferrari for next season was sealed. If this was the case, he'll need to show a far sterner resolve if he's going to get on terms with Alonso at the political hot-house that is the Scuderia.

4. Lewis Hamilton
Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team, 4th in Championship (1 win, 5 poles, 189pts) - Down 2

Considering McLaren's woes this season, it didn't take long for Hamilton to convince the doubters that his move to Mercedes was the right one. Up to the summer break, with the sole exception of an inexplicably poor showing in Spain, the Brit was a constant presence in the top five, and was unfortunate to lose a potential victory at Silverstone to tyre failure. A first win with his new employers finally came with an imperious drive in the sweltering heat of Hungary, after which many observers believed Hamilton may have been on the cusp of launching some kind of title challenge.

This was not to be however, and Hamilton losing out to Vettel along the Kemmel Straight at Spa on the first lap perfectly symbolised the point at which the hopes of everyone else were dashed. Hamilton was not quite as convincing from the next race at Monza onwards - though how much of this was down to cracks in the former champion's chassis, which weren't spotted until after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, isn't clear. But, five pole positions and as many trips to the podium certainly constitutes a record Hamilton can look back upon with satisfaction as he readies himself for what ought to be his best shot at the title since he made history back in 2008.

3. Romain Grosjean
Lotus F1 Team, 7th in Championship (0 wins, 0 poles, 132pts) - New Entry

From "first-lap nutcase" to one of the undoubted class acts of the season,  the last 12 months have seen quite a turnaround for Grosjean. Warned that his drive may be at risk following a dismal weekend at Monaco, where he briefly reverted to type after taking out Ricciardo mid-race, you can't give the Frenchman enough credit for the way he knuckled down and found a way to cut out the errors that had so far held back his career. Whether it was down to the change in mentality that comes with being a father, or simply overcoming a set-up hurdle in optimising his brake balance, something undoubtedly clicked for Grosjean in the summer.

Germany, where a Safety Car cost him a very realistic shot at a maiden victory, proved the springboard to a phenomenal second half of the year during which Grosjean was often Vettel's strongest adversary, and as Raikkonen progressively went off the boil as speculation over his future intensified, the man from Geneva was always in the podium mix once the second flyaway leg of the calendar got underway. Leading the first stint at Suzuka and his defence of second from a hard-charging Webber at Austin were both feats worthy of the champion-in-waiting status that some pundits have now begun to attribute to Grosjean; only time will tell if he can live up to this new tag.

2. Fernando Alonso
Scuderia Ferrari, 2nd in Championship (2 wins, 0 poles, 242pts) - Down 1

If there was a nagging feeling that, perhaps, the wrong person came out on top of last year's championship battle, Alonso's heroics behind the wheel of a largely recalcitrant Ferrari have done nothing to alter a perception which exists among many F1 fans that the two-time champion remains the cream of the crop. Five podiums, including two convincing victories in the first eight races before Pirelli revamped their tyres, laid what appeared to be a solid foundation for another title tilt, even if numerous points went begging for reasons both within and outside of Alonso's control. In the second half of the year however, with Ferrari one of the worst affected teams by the tyre changes, Alonso's performances became all the more impressive.

In particular, three successive second place finishes at Spa, Monza and Singapore kept the title fight alive longer than otherwise would have been the case, and, though the Spaniard was out-qualified by Massa eight times, there was only one occasion all year, India, where Alonso failed to finish ahead of his team-mate, excluding his retirement at Malaysia. In fact, the Brazilian was the only driver among the top five teams to score less than half of his teammate's points, reflecting the overwhelming degree to which Alonso was able to out-perform his car once again. Ferrari owe their star driver nothing less than the near-perfection he has delivered for the past four seasons in 2014.

1. Sebastian Vettel
Infiniti Red Bull Racing, World Champion (13 wins, 9 poles, 397pts) - Up 2

Even if Vettel's record-matching achievements this year have failed to convince you that he is the best driver in the field, this year proved beyond doubt that he is head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to getting the most out of the modern breed of Formula One car. Save for when he didn't run in Q3 at China, the German was never out of the top three in qualifying, and was rarely off the podium in races - only missing out after a gearbox failure robbed him of victory at Silverstone and during two of the early season tyre wear bonanzas at China and Spain (incidentally, both races Alonso won). And, unlike the case for all of his rivals, there wasn't a single event all year you could describe as an "off-race" for the irrepressible Vettel.

His actions at Malaysia, whilst perhaps questionable from a standpoint of sporting ethics, unveiled the same ruthless streak and sheer determination to win that have elevated Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher to such legendary status, and now that Vettel has sealed a fourth title on the trot, it seems hard to believe that he won't be held in similar esteem by the time he decides to hang up his helmet in eight or 10 years' time. The only solace for the 26-year-old's competitors is the promise of a major shuffle in the competitive order that's likely to come with next year's regulation changes - but if Vettel remains on top, then expect the few remaining records he is yet to clinch to tumble sooner or later.

Honourable Mentions

Sergio Perez's season may look fairly lacklustre on paper, but the decision on the part of McLaren to drop him after a single season is extremely harsh. Though errors were certainly more common for the Mexican than for his vastly more experienced teammate Button, Perez was a broad match for the Brit's pace during the races - his drive to fifth place at India and to sixth at Brazil standing out as particular highlights - and out-qualified Button more often than not. Kevin Magnussen has a tough job on his hands if he is to avoid the same fate as Perez, particularly as McLaren continue to court Alonso for 2015.

Valtteri Bottas did a fine job carving out a reputation for himself in his debut season at the wheel of a dreadful Williams car, often shading teammate Pastor Maldonado, whose frustration with the team at failing to build on the progress of 2012 led to far too many cases of over-driving by the fiery Venezuelan. Meanwhile, Bottas kept his head, and when the opportunities to impress came along, namely at Canada in qualifying and at Austin in the race, he seized them perfectly. Ironically, it will be his new teammate Felipe Massa who will have to prove himself against Bottas next year, not vice versa.

Jules Bianchi was the other outstanding rookie of the year, his 13th place at the Malaysian Grand Prix proving sufficient for Marussia to overhaul arch-rivals Caterham in the constructors' standings in the final reckoning. Despite having far less time to acclimatise himself to the car during pre-season testing, Bianchi was rarely troubled by fellow debutant and teammate Max Chilton in both qualifying and the races, and, despite the limitations of the Marussia, successfully translated the potential he has shown in the junior formulae into some solid promise for a bright future in F1. It's just a shame that he won't be able to ply his trade with a more competitive car next year.

To see my list from last season, click here.