Sealing a fourth consecutive title this weekend at India was never going to be a particularly tall order for Sebastian Vettel given the enormous 90 point advantage he possessed heading into the weekend.
In order for the title chase to have continued to Abu Dhabi, two things had to happen. Firstly, Fernando Alonso, Vettel's only remaining theoretical rival, had to finish in the top two, which he hasn't even looked close to doing at the last two races.
Secondly, Vettel himself had to finish outside the top five, which he hasn't done all year barring the one race at Silverstone where he retired from the lead with gearbox trouble.
Nevertheless, Vettel was in absolutely no mood to play the percentages. He hadn't celebrated a title victory with a race win since that surreal evening at Abu Dhabi three years ago and clearly wanted to make that right this weekend. Taking pole position by a mammoth seven tenths of a second on Saturday was the first step towards achieving this.
The second step was working out the optimum strategy on a weekend where the option tyre was expected to fall apart in just a handful of laps, potentially handing those who qualified on primes - including a certain Mark Webber - a tactical advantage.
Having got away cleanly from pole position, Red Bull defied expectation by bringing in Vettel at the end of the second lap of the race. This decision initially seemed rather left-field, even an unnecessary risk, but it soon transpired to be a tactical masterstroke.
Though Vettel re-joined the track down in 17th, he was in relatively clean air with all those that also started on options, who made up the vast majority of the cars ahead, due to pit within a few laps.
What's more, Webber had made a relatively poor start, dropping from fourth on the grid to sixth and crucially losing time behind slower rivals and thus squandering his advantage.
Webber moved into first place at the end of lap eight as interim leader Felipe Massa - who had passed the Red Bull as well as both Mercedes drivers in a storming first few corners - dived for the pits.
By this stage, Vettel was already back up into sixth place, which became third by lap 13 after passes on the yet-to-stop cars of Adrian Sutil, Romain Grosjean and Daniel Ricciardo.
Just 14 seconds now separated Webber and Vettel - nowhere near enough for the Australian to remain in the lead after a pit-stop. The race was therefore already in the bag for the champion-elect even at this early stage.
Having passed another driver yet to make their first stop, Sergio Perez, on lap 21, Vettel was now up into second place and less than 12 seconds adrift of Webber. The Australian finally made his first stop on lap 28, opting for a short second stint on option tyres, Vettel consequently re-taking the lead.
Both Red Bull drivers made their second stops on consecutive laps - Vettel from the lead for a fresh set of prime tyres on lap 31 and then Webber the following lap for another set of primes after his brief flirtation with the options. The German now held an advantage of 12 seconds over his teammate.
A second Red Bull one-two in a row was however derailed by an alternator failure for the perennially unlucky Webber, who was forced to park his stricken car on lap 40.
This immediately caused concern on the pit-wall that Vettel's car may not go the distance, but in the event the 26-year-old was able to reel off the remaining 20 laps without drama.
A tenth victory of the season, and a sixth in a row were plenty sufficient to guarantee Vettel a richly-deserved fourth championship crown that puts him level with the legendary Alain Prost and only three away from compatriot Michael Schumacher - whose record of seven titles now seems far from untouchable.
The battle for the remaining podium places behind Vettel was an intriguing one, with various drivers on differing tyre strategies crossing paths as the race approached its climax.
At the point at which Webber was forced to retire, Kimi Raikkonen's Lotus was running in second place but seemingly on the verge of making a second pit-stop having previously pitted on lap seven.
But, as the lap counter ticked down, it became clear that Lotus were aiming to try and get the 'Iceman' to the end of the race without making any further stops.
Just behind was Sutil, who had started on medium tyres and hadn't pitted all race. When he finally pitted to make the mandatory switch to options on lap 41, Nico Rosberg, who had started the race alongside Vettel on the front row, moved up to third behind Raikkonen.
Next up was Romain Grosjean, up to fourth from 17th on the grid having made his sole stop on lap 13, erstwhile leader Massa, who dropped back behind Rosberg at the second phase of pit-stops, the Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and Perez, who by now had come into the pits for a second time.
All of these drivers were catching Raikkonen, who would evidently struggle to go the distance on his severely worn tyres. Rosberg was able to close down a 10 second deficit to the Finn in as many laps, making the inevitable pass on lap 52 at turn 4 and going to claim a well-earned second place, his first podium finish since his Silverstone victory.
After another couple of laps, Grosjean had caught up to his struggling teammate, but Raikkonen seemed reluctant to let the Frenchman by. The pair almost made contact as Grosjean attempted a move around the outside at turn 4 on lap 56, Raikkonen finally conceding the position at the end of that lap following a somewhat blunt radio message from Alan Permane.
While Grosjean made it a hat-trick of podium finishes with third, Massa swiftly made his way past his former Ferrari teammate Raikkonen to take a creditable fourth place.
Perez then killed two birds with one stone as he slipstreamed his way past both Hamilton, who was also struggling with rear tyre wear, and Raikkonen to move into fifth - the best finish of his McLaren career so far and equal to the team's best result of the year.
Hamilton came home sixth in a disappointing outing for the Brit that saw him outclassed by teammate Rosberg, with Raikkonen making a late pit-stop and having to settle for seventh. Completing the points-scorers were Paul Di Resta, his Force India teammate Sutil and Daniel Ricciardo's Toro Rosso.
The latter was forced to defend in the closing stages from Alonso, who suffered a nightmare race. Poised for a good result starting on prime tyres, the Ferrari driver made contact first with Webber and then Jenson Button on the first lap, which caused the Spaniard to pit for a change of front wing.
Alonso never really recovered from this setback, struggling to an eventual 11th place finish with a damaged car. Behind him finished Pastor Maldonado's Williams, Jean-Eric Vergne in the second Toro Rosso and Button, who similarly failed to claw back much ground after the first lap contact with Alonso, which gave him a puncture, in a dismal afternoon.
Next up were Esteban Gutierrez, who was brought back to earth with a drive-through penalty for jumping the start after his breakthrough first points finish at Suzuka, Valtteri Bottas and the Marussia duo of Max Chilton and Jules Bianchi.
Nico Hulkenberg was a late retirement with brake failure having been on course for eighth place, whilst Giedo van der Garde was eliminated after first corner contact with Chilton and teammate Pic, who retired some laps later with a hydraulic failure.
After the race, it was refreshing to see Vettel receive the adulation he deserves from the passionate Indian crowd after several unsavoury episodes of booing earlier in the year. Despite continued doubts from some quarters, Vettel has quite simply done a sterling job of maximising the machinery at his disposal this season - he can't be blamed for doing what every driver in the field ultimately aims to do.
As brilliant as it would be to see his talents given a more stern test by inferior machinery or a teammate of the calibre of Alonso or Hamilton, all we can do is watch and admire for the time being as he continues to reel off the victories. Whether Vettel can be considered an all-time great is no longer in doubt; time will only tell his place among the sport's other legends.
27 October 2013
25 October 2013
Indian Grand Prix 2013 - Preview
What looks likely to be the last Indian Grand Prix for the forseeable future is poised to hold the distinction of setting the scene for Sebastian Vettel claiming his fourth successive Formula One title.
It's fair to say that, despite a promising start when the Buddh International circuit hosted India's inaugural in 2011, that F1 has failed to establish a foothold in the subcontinent. Attendances have been in decline, and the Indian government's apparent indifference towards the Grand Prix has perhaps come as a shock to a sport accustomed to being welcomed with open arms in other parts of the globe.
Despite the official reasons stated for India's omission from next year's calendar, it's obvious that the Indian government's classification of F1 as 'entertainment' rather than 'sport', and the ensuing tax ramifications, is at the heart of why the race has been axed. The race is supposedly set to re-appear in 2015, but this appears doubtful unless the Indian government's attitude towards F1 changes.
Indeed, there had been some uncertainty as to whether this weekend's race was going to go ahead at all amid a backdrop of a legal challenge over unpaid taxes on the part of the race promoter. Whilst a delay to this hearing has averted any threat of the race being cancelled, the uncertainty epitomised the uneasy relationship between India and F1.
The track itself is another of Hermann Tilke's creations, and is notable for its very long back straight, unique wide hairpin bends and its meandering middle sector which overwhelmingly favours the characteristics of the Red Bull. It's little co-incidence, therefore, that Vettel has taken two pole positions and two wins from two visits to the circuit, and that the odds of him making it a hat-trick are as short as 1/4 at the time of writing.
Should the German do exactly that, the title will be his - Vettel has a lead of 90 points heading into this weekend's encounter, meaning he needs to only finish fifth or higher to seal the deal regardless of what any of his competitors do.
When you bear in mind that Vettel has failed to finish lower than fourth all season (with the exception of his retirement at the British Grand Prix due to a rare gearbox failure), it would take something very much out of the ordinary to keep the title fight alive beyond this weekend.
Red Bull are also within touching distance of the constructors' crown, but the fight for second is hotting up nicely in light of the Lotus team's recent competitive upswing.
Just 33 points now separate Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus in the standings; considering the Enstone-based have had at least one car on the podium at the last three races, their chances of overhauling their better-funded rivals seem strong, especially when you bear in mind that development of this year's cars has all but ceased.
That in turn means that this weekend's race is likely to follow a broadly similar pattern to the previous couple in terms of the competitive order, making Lotus the only team capable of challenging Red Bull hegemony this weekend.
Romain Grosjean's race pace may not have been good enough to realistically challenge for victory despite his scintillating start at Suzuka, but the fact that tyre wear is likely to play a greater role this time around - with the soft compound tyre in use this weekend alongside the medium - could give the Frenchman a better chance of overcoming the all-conquering RB9s than in previous races.
Kimi Raikkonen can also not be ruled out of contention either, but his lacklustre performances in qualifying in recent races have constrained his ability to fight at the front. It's worth noting also that Lotus have been recently forced to deny rumours of the Finn being de-motivated during the closing part of this season in light of Vettel's domination.
Elsewhere, the chances are that the Mercedes drivers meanwhile will qualify well only to fade during the race, whilst Fernando Alonso will make his customarily incisive progress through the field having started disappointingly low down the order. Watch out for Nico Hulkenberg to take another solid haul of points as well, which could prove instrumental in Sauber's quest to overhaul Force India in the constructors' standings before the year is out.
Understandably, most people have turned their attentions towards next season, and the midfield driver market is looking very fluid indeed. Recent speculation points strongly towards Felipe Massa landing a seat at Williams next year alongside Valtteri Bottas and the disillusioned Pastor Maldonado leaving the Grove-based outfit and taking his PDVSA cash elsewhere, possibly to Force India if Nico Hulkenberg is confirmed at Lotus as expected.
That in turn would mean one of Paul Di Resta or Adrian Sutil would be forced out, though the latter has been linked to a seat with Sauber alongside Russian youngster Sergey Sirotkin. It emerged yesterday however that Vitaly Petrov has now amassed 30 million euros worth of backing from Gazprom, and also been in talks with Sauber. There have also been suggestions that Esteban Gutierrez could yet remain at the Swiss team, too.
One team that has settled its line-up on the other hand is Toro Rosso, who shocked the paddock by announcing that GP3 driver Daniil Kvyat is to step up to the team to join Jean-Eric Vergne. The 19-year-old Russian was considered to be more promising than fellow Red Bull juniors Antonio Felix da Costa and Carlos Sainz Jr., both of whom are more experienced.
It will nonetheless be an incredibly tough learning curve for Kvyat, who like compatriot Sirotkin, would surely have benefitted enormously from a season of Friday practice sessions combined with another year's competition in the junior formulae. Let's just hope that Red Bull's decision to fast-track Kvyat into F1 at such an early age doesn't result in his potential being squandered.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Hamilton, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Massa, 9. Button, 10. Hulkenberg
Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Grosjean, 3. Webber, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Alonso, 6. Hamilton, 7. Hulkenberg, 8. Massa, 9. Button, 10. Ricciardo
Unfortunately, it's hard to see how Vettel will be thwarted this weekend, though Grosjean will provide some respite by getting his Lotus cat among the Red Bull pigeons with another standout drive. Raikkonen will be outclassed by his teammate once more due to a sub-par qualifying, with Alonso and Hamilton rounding out the top half-dozen.
Hulkenberg will make it five points-scoring finishes in a row with seventh place, with Massa, Button and Ricciardo rounding out the points in what I predict to be largely a rather dull race. After qualifying up in fifth, Rosberg will be on the receiving end of some misfortune this weekend that will prevent him scoring.
It's fair to say that, despite a promising start when the Buddh International circuit hosted India's inaugural in 2011, that F1 has failed to establish a foothold in the subcontinent. Attendances have been in decline, and the Indian government's apparent indifference towards the Grand Prix has perhaps come as a shock to a sport accustomed to being welcomed with open arms in other parts of the globe.
Despite the official reasons stated for India's omission from next year's calendar, it's obvious that the Indian government's classification of F1 as 'entertainment' rather than 'sport', and the ensuing tax ramifications, is at the heart of why the race has been axed. The race is supposedly set to re-appear in 2015, but this appears doubtful unless the Indian government's attitude towards F1 changes.
Indeed, there had been some uncertainty as to whether this weekend's race was going to go ahead at all amid a backdrop of a legal challenge over unpaid taxes on the part of the race promoter. Whilst a delay to this hearing has averted any threat of the race being cancelled, the uncertainty epitomised the uneasy relationship between India and F1.
The track itself is another of Hermann Tilke's creations, and is notable for its very long back straight, unique wide hairpin bends and its meandering middle sector which overwhelmingly favours the characteristics of the Red Bull. It's little co-incidence, therefore, that Vettel has taken two pole positions and two wins from two visits to the circuit, and that the odds of him making it a hat-trick are as short as 1/4 at the time of writing.
Should the German do exactly that, the title will be his - Vettel has a lead of 90 points heading into this weekend's encounter, meaning he needs to only finish fifth or higher to seal the deal regardless of what any of his competitors do.
When you bear in mind that Vettel has failed to finish lower than fourth all season (with the exception of his retirement at the British Grand Prix due to a rare gearbox failure), it would take something very much out of the ordinary to keep the title fight alive beyond this weekend.
Red Bull are also within touching distance of the constructors' crown, but the fight for second is hotting up nicely in light of the Lotus team's recent competitive upswing.
Just 33 points now separate Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus in the standings; considering the Enstone-based have had at least one car on the podium at the last three races, their chances of overhauling their better-funded rivals seem strong, especially when you bear in mind that development of this year's cars has all but ceased.
That in turn means that this weekend's race is likely to follow a broadly similar pattern to the previous couple in terms of the competitive order, making Lotus the only team capable of challenging Red Bull hegemony this weekend.
Romain Grosjean's race pace may not have been good enough to realistically challenge for victory despite his scintillating start at Suzuka, but the fact that tyre wear is likely to play a greater role this time around - with the soft compound tyre in use this weekend alongside the medium - could give the Frenchman a better chance of overcoming the all-conquering RB9s than in previous races.
Kimi Raikkonen can also not be ruled out of contention either, but his lacklustre performances in qualifying in recent races have constrained his ability to fight at the front. It's worth noting also that Lotus have been recently forced to deny rumours of the Finn being de-motivated during the closing part of this season in light of Vettel's domination.
Elsewhere, the chances are that the Mercedes drivers meanwhile will qualify well only to fade during the race, whilst Fernando Alonso will make his customarily incisive progress through the field having started disappointingly low down the order. Watch out for Nico Hulkenberg to take another solid haul of points as well, which could prove instrumental in Sauber's quest to overhaul Force India in the constructors' standings before the year is out.
Understandably, most people have turned their attentions towards next season, and the midfield driver market is looking very fluid indeed. Recent speculation points strongly towards Felipe Massa landing a seat at Williams next year alongside Valtteri Bottas and the disillusioned Pastor Maldonado leaving the Grove-based outfit and taking his PDVSA cash elsewhere, possibly to Force India if Nico Hulkenberg is confirmed at Lotus as expected.
That in turn would mean one of Paul Di Resta or Adrian Sutil would be forced out, though the latter has been linked to a seat with Sauber alongside Russian youngster Sergey Sirotkin. It emerged yesterday however that Vitaly Petrov has now amassed 30 million euros worth of backing from Gazprom, and also been in talks with Sauber. There have also been suggestions that Esteban Gutierrez could yet remain at the Swiss team, too.
One team that has settled its line-up on the other hand is Toro Rosso, who shocked the paddock by announcing that GP3 driver Daniil Kvyat is to step up to the team to join Jean-Eric Vergne. The 19-year-old Russian was considered to be more promising than fellow Red Bull juniors Antonio Felix da Costa and Carlos Sainz Jr., both of whom are more experienced.
It will nonetheless be an incredibly tough learning curve for Kvyat, who like compatriot Sirotkin, would surely have benefitted enormously from a season of Friday practice sessions combined with another year's competition in the junior formulae. Let's just hope that Red Bull's decision to fast-track Kvyat into F1 at such an early age doesn't result in his potential being squandered.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Hamilton, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Massa, 9. Button, 10. Hulkenberg
Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Grosjean, 3. Webber, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Alonso, 6. Hamilton, 7. Hulkenberg, 8. Massa, 9. Button, 10. Ricciardo
Unfortunately, it's hard to see how Vettel will be thwarted this weekend, though Grosjean will provide some respite by getting his Lotus cat among the Red Bull pigeons with another standout drive. Raikkonen will be outclassed by his teammate once more due to a sub-par qualifying, with Alonso and Hamilton rounding out the top half-dozen.
Hulkenberg will make it five points-scoring finishes in a row with seventh place, with Massa, Button and Ricciardo rounding out the points in what I predict to be largely a rather dull race. After qualifying up in fifth, Rosberg will be on the receiving end of some misfortune this weekend that will prevent him scoring.
20 October 2013
Who will form F1's next generation?
For me, the last two Formula One Grands Prix at Korea and Japan have been especially notable - not for the continued dominance of Sebastian Vettel, who is firmly on course to wrap up the title next weekend at India, but for the clearest indications yet of a new generation of talent emerging.
Two drivers in particular have stood out during these races - Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg. The former, as I have written for The Sideline Agenda, has truly matured into a potential future champion since he looked like challenging for victory back at the German Grand Prix, and his back-to-back third places seem scant reward for two virtually faultless weekends in Korea and Japan.
Hulkenberg, meanwhile, has taken full advantage of Sauber's recent upswing in competitiveness. After registering a brilliant fourth place at Yeongam, frustrating Lewis Hamilton for much of the latter half of the race, another superb drive by the German at Suzuka saw him run in fourth for a significant proportion of the distance before being demoted to sixth by Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen in the closing stages.
Now that an investment deal between Lotus and investment consortium Quantum Motorsports (née Infinity Racing) is close to being finalised, it appears that Grosjean and Hulkenberg will line up as teammates at the Enstone-based outfit next year.
Assuming Lotus can remain competitive as the sport makes its transition to next year's radically revised regulations, it follows that the pair stand a solid chance of breaking their respective victory ducks. And, if they succeed in doing that, it could be the springboard to some form of championship challenge - whether that's with Lotus or another top team.
Another driver this applies to is Daniel Ricciardo, who will be deservedly making his debut for the current dominant force of the grid, Red Bull, in 2014 after a two-season apprenticeship with Toro Rosso. He won't be challenging the supremacy of teammate Vettel immediately, but he too has shown his Grand Prix winning potential and ought to be contending for titles before too long.
Thus, with Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, we have the makings of a 'post-Vettel' generation of drivers. The last time this process took place was around five years ago, when the younger of the sport's two established generations was formed.
Hamilton was the first to confirm his membership of this club, bursting on to the scene with McLaren in 2007 and very nearly winning the title at the first time of asking. Vettel and Nico Rosberg joined the Brit, impressing with lower teams in their first couple of seasons and being promoted to top teams in 2009 and 2010 respectively, but others struggled to make their mark.
It appeared that Heikki Kovalainen was also destined to be part of this grouping, having landed a prized McLaren seat in 2008, but his so-so performances during his two year stint at Woking were to curtail such ambitions. Now the Finn isn't so much as on the grid this season following three torrid, pointless seasons at Team Lotus/Caterham.
Others who emerged on the scene around this time but failed to last include Timo Glock, who already looked to be on his way out of Toyota even before the Japanese marque pulled the plug, Vitantonio Liuzzi, who failed to establish himself either at Toro Rosso or Force India, Kazuki Nakajima, who was shown up by Rosberg during his two-year stint at Williams, and Nelson Piquet Jr., whose had already been ditched by Renault before his reputation was dealt irreparable damage by the exposure of the Crashgate affair.
The plight of some of the above drivers is indicative of how a driver regarded as a promising talent can quickly find themselves out of favour if the results dry up. Admittedly, sponsorship dollars can play a pivotal role in this process, but Hulkenberg shows it's possible to get by without substantial funding if you're considered exceptional.
Of the 20 drivers present on the F1 grid five years ago, just nine are still around today; by that logic, no more than 10 or 11 of today's 22-strong field will remain on the grid five years from now. Whilst the likes of Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen - today's elder generation - will all have likely retired by this stage, that still means the majority of the youngsters will miss out.
It's probably safe to say that Vettel, as well as Mercedes duo Rosberg and Hamilton, will all still be around in five years' time. If we also include Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, that leaves a maximum of four or five spaces for the remainder of the field to cement their place as part of this upcoming generation and avoid falling by the wayside.
Sergio Perez is a good example of a driver whose career, at this stage, could go either way. His first season at McLaren hasn't been bad at all - whilst there have been perhaps a couple more mistakes than the Mexican may have liked, including his self-inflicted puncture at Suzuka, his race pace has been a match for teammate Button at nearly every race. Yet, McLaren have been rather hesitant to confirm Perez for next season.
It nevertheless seems likely Perez will be handed another season at McLaren, if only for a lack of alternatives now Hulkenberg appears Lotus-bound, but he'd certainly have to begin beating Button (who, let's face it, is unlikely to ever win another title) on a regular basis in order to guarantee his future.
Were he to do so, Perez would probably be lauded as a future champion. Were he to endure another campaign as inconsistent as this one, he would probably be dropped from the team, and after that it would be no easy job rebuilding his career - as Kovalainen can attest.
Paul Di Resta is another driver whose form this year has been erratic. Despite some strong early performances, most notably at Bahrain, before the Force India was hobbled by Pirelli's mid-season tyre revision, the Scot's case for remaining on board for 2014 has not been helped by a run of three straight retirements caused by driver error from Monza to Korea.
That said, it's far from too late to make amends for these errors, and, as is the case for Perez, a successful season next year could launch Di Resta's career into the stratosphere. On the other hand, a repeat of 2013 probably wouldn't be enough to guarantee his F1 future, especially as he lacks any significant financial backing.
Others for whom the jury is still out include Pastor Maldonado, who has suffered a dismal year with Williams after his breakthrough victory in Spain last year, and Jean-Eric Vergne, who has failed to score a point since his impressive drive to sixth place at Canada four months ago. Both could either sink or swim next year, which, much like Perez and Di Resta, could set the tone for the rest of their careers.
Will all four of these drivers still be around in 2018? It's doubtful, especially when they will be competing against such burgeoning talents as Valtteri Bottas, Jules Bianchi, Kevin Magnussen and Antonio Felix da Costa for precious seats. And, if the field is slimmed down to 20 cars in the next couple of years, as some expect it to, the pressure will further intensify to be not be left standing when the music stops.
Some sparkling performances this year mean that Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo looked to have set themselves up for long, successful F1 careers. Now, the fight is well and truly on for the rest of the sport's up-and-coming drivers to do likewise and not be consigned to the scrapheap of talent.
Two drivers in particular have stood out during these races - Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg. The former, as I have written for The Sideline Agenda, has truly matured into a potential future champion since he looked like challenging for victory back at the German Grand Prix, and his back-to-back third places seem scant reward for two virtually faultless weekends in Korea and Japan.
Hulkenberg, meanwhile, has taken full advantage of Sauber's recent upswing in competitiveness. After registering a brilliant fourth place at Yeongam, frustrating Lewis Hamilton for much of the latter half of the race, another superb drive by the German at Suzuka saw him run in fourth for a significant proportion of the distance before being demoted to sixth by Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen in the closing stages.
Now that an investment deal between Lotus and investment consortium Quantum Motorsports (née Infinity Racing) is close to being finalised, it appears that Grosjean and Hulkenberg will line up as teammates at the Enstone-based outfit next year.
Assuming Lotus can remain competitive as the sport makes its transition to next year's radically revised regulations, it follows that the pair stand a solid chance of breaking their respective victory ducks. And, if they succeed in doing that, it could be the springboard to some form of championship challenge - whether that's with Lotus or another top team.
Another driver this applies to is Daniel Ricciardo, who will be deservedly making his debut for the current dominant force of the grid, Red Bull, in 2014 after a two-season apprenticeship with Toro Rosso. He won't be challenging the supremacy of teammate Vettel immediately, but he too has shown his Grand Prix winning potential and ought to be contending for titles before too long.
Thus, with Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, we have the makings of a 'post-Vettel' generation of drivers. The last time this process took place was around five years ago, when the younger of the sport's two established generations was formed.
Hamilton was the first to confirm his membership of this club, bursting on to the scene with McLaren in 2007 and very nearly winning the title at the first time of asking. Vettel and Nico Rosberg joined the Brit, impressing with lower teams in their first couple of seasons and being promoted to top teams in 2009 and 2010 respectively, but others struggled to make their mark.
It appeared that Heikki Kovalainen was also destined to be part of this grouping, having landed a prized McLaren seat in 2008, but his so-so performances during his two year stint at Woking were to curtail such ambitions. Now the Finn isn't so much as on the grid this season following three torrid, pointless seasons at Team Lotus/Caterham.
Others who emerged on the scene around this time but failed to last include Timo Glock, who already looked to be on his way out of Toyota even before the Japanese marque pulled the plug, Vitantonio Liuzzi, who failed to establish himself either at Toro Rosso or Force India, Kazuki Nakajima, who was shown up by Rosberg during his two-year stint at Williams, and Nelson Piquet Jr., whose had already been ditched by Renault before his reputation was dealt irreparable damage by the exposure of the Crashgate affair.
The plight of some of the above drivers is indicative of how a driver regarded as a promising talent can quickly find themselves out of favour if the results dry up. Admittedly, sponsorship dollars can play a pivotal role in this process, but Hulkenberg shows it's possible to get by without substantial funding if you're considered exceptional.
Of the 20 drivers present on the F1 grid five years ago, just nine are still around today; by that logic, no more than 10 or 11 of today's 22-strong field will remain on the grid five years from now. Whilst the likes of Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen - today's elder generation - will all have likely retired by this stage, that still means the majority of the youngsters will miss out.
It's probably safe to say that Vettel, as well as Mercedes duo Rosberg and Hamilton, will all still be around in five years' time. If we also include Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, that leaves a maximum of four or five spaces for the remainder of the field to cement their place as part of this upcoming generation and avoid falling by the wayside.
Sergio Perez is a good example of a driver whose career, at this stage, could go either way. His first season at McLaren hasn't been bad at all - whilst there have been perhaps a couple more mistakes than the Mexican may have liked, including his self-inflicted puncture at Suzuka, his race pace has been a match for teammate Button at nearly every race. Yet, McLaren have been rather hesitant to confirm Perez for next season.
It nevertheless seems likely Perez will be handed another season at McLaren, if only for a lack of alternatives now Hulkenberg appears Lotus-bound, but he'd certainly have to begin beating Button (who, let's face it, is unlikely to ever win another title) on a regular basis in order to guarantee his future.
Were he to do so, Perez would probably be lauded as a future champion. Were he to endure another campaign as inconsistent as this one, he would probably be dropped from the team, and after that it would be no easy job rebuilding his career - as Kovalainen can attest.
Paul Di Resta is another driver whose form this year has been erratic. Despite some strong early performances, most notably at Bahrain, before the Force India was hobbled by Pirelli's mid-season tyre revision, the Scot's case for remaining on board for 2014 has not been helped by a run of three straight retirements caused by driver error from Monza to Korea.
That said, it's far from too late to make amends for these errors, and, as is the case for Perez, a successful season next year could launch Di Resta's career into the stratosphere. On the other hand, a repeat of 2013 probably wouldn't be enough to guarantee his F1 future, especially as he lacks any significant financial backing.
Others for whom the jury is still out include Pastor Maldonado, who has suffered a dismal year with Williams after his breakthrough victory in Spain last year, and Jean-Eric Vergne, who has failed to score a point since his impressive drive to sixth place at Canada four months ago. Both could either sink or swim next year, which, much like Perez and Di Resta, could set the tone for the rest of their careers.
Will all four of these drivers still be around in 2018? It's doubtful, especially when they will be competing against such burgeoning talents as Valtteri Bottas, Jules Bianchi, Kevin Magnussen and Antonio Felix da Costa for precious seats. And, if the field is slimmed down to 20 cars in the next couple of years, as some expect it to, the pressure will further intensify to be not be left standing when the music stops.
Some sparkling performances this year mean that Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo looked to have set themselves up for long, successful F1 careers. Now, the fight is well and truly on for the rest of the sport's up-and-coming drivers to do likewise and not be consigned to the scrapheap of talent.
14 October 2013
Japanese Grand Prix 2013 - Report
Yesterday's Japanese Grand Prix was perhaps the best demonstration we've seen this year of precisely why Sebastian Vettel is firmly on course for a fourth successive Formula One title.
The difference between the champion-elect's run of victories from Spa to Korea and his latest victory at the Suzuka circuit is that, on this occasion, instead of leading the way from the beginning, Vettel was forced to come from behind in order to snatch the silverware.
Almost from the outset, the race was a three-horse race between Vettel, his Red Bull teammate Mark Webber, the Australian taking pole position on his final trip to Suzuka as an F1 driver (aided by KERS problems for Vettel, it should be added), and Romain Grosjean, who, from fourth on the grid, jumped the pair of them heading into the first corner.
The second half of this season has seen Grosjean emerge as a credible candidate to lead the Lotus team into its post-Raikkonen era, and as the Frenchman seized the lead at the first corner, it seemed Grosjean could well be headed for the first win for a Frenchman in F1 since Olivier Panis stood atop the Monaco podium in 1996.
Another driver to make a good start was Lewis Hamilton, who started third. But, the Brit's race was to prove an exceptionally brief one - his Mercedes suffered an instantaneous puncture as his right-rear wheel made contact with the end-plate of Vettel's front wing as Hamilton tried to sweep across the reigning champion's bows.
Hamilton managed to coax his car back to the pit-lane, but the damage done to the floor and rear suspension in the process was sufficient to warrant his retirement a few laps later. Interestingly, had Hamilton successfully demoted Vettel to fourth place, it could have totally changed the complexion of the race.
As it was however, Vettel clung on to third place behind Grosjean and Webber, with Nico Rosberg running fourth in the sole remaining Mercedes ahead of Felipe Massa, Fernando Alonso and an ever-impressive Nico Hulkenberg.
Such was the pace advantage of the Red Bulls and Lotuses - something Mercedes believes is in large part thanks to clever engine mapping by Renault - that Grosjean, Webber and Vettel were able to escape the following pack at a rate of around a second per lap, Rosberg 10 seconds down on Vettel after as many laps.
The leading trio on the other hand were separated by little more than four seconds by the time Webber made his first pit-stop at the end of lap 11, swapping his options for a fresh set of primes. Grosjean followed suit the following lap, but crucially Vettel was able to stretch his opening stint to 14 laps before pitting.
Though Vettel resumed in third place behind Grosjean and Webber, the fact he had nursed his rubber more effectively up to this stage laid a rock-solid foundation on which he would build his ultimately irresistible challenge for victory.
Conversely, Webber was struggling with tyre wear, and as such was forced to switch to a theoretically slower three-stop strategy. There have been some who suggested after the race that this decision was a deliberate act of conspiracy on the part of Red Bull, but, with Vettel already so close to the title, what would the team have gained in hobbling Webber's bid for a first win of the season?
Webber made his second trip to the pits on lap 25, and it was at this stage that Lotus arguably sacrificed any slim chance Grosjean had of taking his first win. The Enstone team seemed not to realise that they were in fact racing Vettel, rather than Webber, for victory, and as such brought in Grosjean on lap 29 - far too early to give their driver any chance of holding off Vettel in the final stint.
Aided by his longer first stint, Vettel was able to go all the way until lap 37 before his second stop, after which he re-joined the track right behind Grosjean. With the black-and-gold machine's tyres already eight laps old by this stage, it took just three laps for Vettel to close down the two second advantage of Grosjean.
The inevitable pass for second place - Webber having re-taken the lead after Grosjean and Vettel's respective second stops - came at the first corner on lap 41, the Frenchman simply unable to respond to his rival's superior pace with his more used rubber.
One lap later, Webber came in for his third stop, and within a matter of laps was sat right on Grosjean's gearbox. An issue with his DRS prevented him from clearing Grosjean anywhere near as quickly as Vettel could, having to wait all the way until the first corner of the penultimate lap to do so. By this stage, Vettel had established an unassailable lead of nine seconds.
This meant there was no stopping Vettel taking a ninth win of the season - the 35th of his astonishing career - and extending his championship lead to a mammoth 90 points. With 100 now left to play for, the odds strongly favour Vettel sealing his fourth straight title crown in two weeks time at India - he needs just a fifth place finish, regardless of what any other driver achieves.
Behind Webber and Grosjean, Alonso made his way up to fourth place to keep himself in mathematical (if not actual) title contention. This involved a customary good start from a poor grid slot of eighth, followed by passes on teammate Massa during the second stint and Hulkenberg, who had jumped ahead in the first round of pit-stops, in the closing stages.
Hulkenberg was also demoted by Raikkonen with two laps to go, the Finn's race following a broadly similar trajectory to that of Alonso after starting one place behind the Ferrari driver on the grid. Sixth place for Hulkenberg marks the fourth top ten result in a row for the Sauber driver, who, if the paddock rumours are to be believed, has now signed a deal to join Lotus next season.
Coming home seventh was Esteban Gutierrez, who made a great start to climb immediately up to ninth and thereafter put in an assured performance behind the wheel of the second Sauber. It has taken a while for the Mexican to find his feet in F1, but since the summer break, Gutierrez has shown a marked upturn in form. Whether this will be enough to keep him in his seat for next season is an entirely different matter, however.
Having run in fourth early on, Rosberg ended up in eighth place after a drive-through penalty picked up at the first round of pit-stops as his Mercedes pit-crew released him into the path of Sergio Perez's McLaren. Rosberg was able to claw back some ground thereafter, but was unable to find a way by Gutierrez, behind whom he was stuck for the last half a dozen laps.
Another driver to pick up a drive-through penalty, albeit for pit-lane speeding, was Massa, who was forced to be content with a solitary point for tenth place; one position ahead of the Brazilian was McLaren's Jenson Button, who endured a fairly anonymous race en route to ninth.
Button's teammate Perez on the other hand had a far more eventful afternoon. Having run a creditable eighth early on, he lost time in the pits as a result of the near miss with Rosberg before becoming embroiled in an on-track skirmish with the German. Perez sustained a puncture in a clumsy attempt to defend his position from Rosberg at the Casio Triangle, dropping him to 15th at the chequered flag.
Eleventh place fell to Paul Di Resta in another tough race for Force India, who will now be looking over their shoulder at Sauber in the constructors' standings. Adrian Sutil meanwhile had to start from the very back of the grid following a penalty for a gearbox change, making his way up to 14th place by the finish.
Separating the two Force Indias were the Toro Rosso pair, Jean-Eric Vergne leading Daniel Ricciardo on this occasion. The latter started the race on the hard compound tyre, running as high as fourth before his first stop - holding up a pack of faster cars in the process. Any chance of Ricciardo scoring points nonetheless was blown out the water when he picked up a drive-through penalty for passing Di Resta by leaving the circuit.
Pastor Maldonado finished 16th, one place behind Perez, after a fairly brutal move on Williams teammate Valtteri Bottas at the Casio Triangle on the very last lap of the race. Rounding out the finishers were Charles Pic and Max Chilton, their respective teammates Giedo van der Garde and Jules Bianchi becoming early casualties after tangling at the very first corner of the race.
It's one thing to start a race from pole and simply sprint away into the distance, but it's quite another to have to read a race to perfection in order to come from behind and grab the upper hand over your competitors, which is precisely what Vettel did at Suzuka - if his performance doesn't make the naysayers who claim that he cannot race think otherwise, it's doubtful anything the soon-to-be quadruple champion does will.
The difference between the champion-elect's run of victories from Spa to Korea and his latest victory at the Suzuka circuit is that, on this occasion, instead of leading the way from the beginning, Vettel was forced to come from behind in order to snatch the silverware.
Almost from the outset, the race was a three-horse race between Vettel, his Red Bull teammate Mark Webber, the Australian taking pole position on his final trip to Suzuka as an F1 driver (aided by KERS problems for Vettel, it should be added), and Romain Grosjean, who, from fourth on the grid, jumped the pair of them heading into the first corner.
The second half of this season has seen Grosjean emerge as a credible candidate to lead the Lotus team into its post-Raikkonen era, and as the Frenchman seized the lead at the first corner, it seemed Grosjean could well be headed for the first win for a Frenchman in F1 since Olivier Panis stood atop the Monaco podium in 1996.
Another driver to make a good start was Lewis Hamilton, who started third. But, the Brit's race was to prove an exceptionally brief one - his Mercedes suffered an instantaneous puncture as his right-rear wheel made contact with the end-plate of Vettel's front wing as Hamilton tried to sweep across the reigning champion's bows.
Hamilton managed to coax his car back to the pit-lane, but the damage done to the floor and rear suspension in the process was sufficient to warrant his retirement a few laps later. Interestingly, had Hamilton successfully demoted Vettel to fourth place, it could have totally changed the complexion of the race.
As it was however, Vettel clung on to third place behind Grosjean and Webber, with Nico Rosberg running fourth in the sole remaining Mercedes ahead of Felipe Massa, Fernando Alonso and an ever-impressive Nico Hulkenberg.
Such was the pace advantage of the Red Bulls and Lotuses - something Mercedes believes is in large part thanks to clever engine mapping by Renault - that Grosjean, Webber and Vettel were able to escape the following pack at a rate of around a second per lap, Rosberg 10 seconds down on Vettel after as many laps.
The leading trio on the other hand were separated by little more than four seconds by the time Webber made his first pit-stop at the end of lap 11, swapping his options for a fresh set of primes. Grosjean followed suit the following lap, but crucially Vettel was able to stretch his opening stint to 14 laps before pitting.
Though Vettel resumed in third place behind Grosjean and Webber, the fact he had nursed his rubber more effectively up to this stage laid a rock-solid foundation on which he would build his ultimately irresistible challenge for victory.
Conversely, Webber was struggling with tyre wear, and as such was forced to switch to a theoretically slower three-stop strategy. There have been some who suggested after the race that this decision was a deliberate act of conspiracy on the part of Red Bull, but, with Vettel already so close to the title, what would the team have gained in hobbling Webber's bid for a first win of the season?
Webber made his second trip to the pits on lap 25, and it was at this stage that Lotus arguably sacrificed any slim chance Grosjean had of taking his first win. The Enstone team seemed not to realise that they were in fact racing Vettel, rather than Webber, for victory, and as such brought in Grosjean on lap 29 - far too early to give their driver any chance of holding off Vettel in the final stint.
Aided by his longer first stint, Vettel was able to go all the way until lap 37 before his second stop, after which he re-joined the track right behind Grosjean. With the black-and-gold machine's tyres already eight laps old by this stage, it took just three laps for Vettel to close down the two second advantage of Grosjean.
The inevitable pass for second place - Webber having re-taken the lead after Grosjean and Vettel's respective second stops - came at the first corner on lap 41, the Frenchman simply unable to respond to his rival's superior pace with his more used rubber.
One lap later, Webber came in for his third stop, and within a matter of laps was sat right on Grosjean's gearbox. An issue with his DRS prevented him from clearing Grosjean anywhere near as quickly as Vettel could, having to wait all the way until the first corner of the penultimate lap to do so. By this stage, Vettel had established an unassailable lead of nine seconds.
This meant there was no stopping Vettel taking a ninth win of the season - the 35th of his astonishing career - and extending his championship lead to a mammoth 90 points. With 100 now left to play for, the odds strongly favour Vettel sealing his fourth straight title crown in two weeks time at India - he needs just a fifth place finish, regardless of what any other driver achieves.
Behind Webber and Grosjean, Alonso made his way up to fourth place to keep himself in mathematical (if not actual) title contention. This involved a customary good start from a poor grid slot of eighth, followed by passes on teammate Massa during the second stint and Hulkenberg, who had jumped ahead in the first round of pit-stops, in the closing stages.
Hulkenberg was also demoted by Raikkonen with two laps to go, the Finn's race following a broadly similar trajectory to that of Alonso after starting one place behind the Ferrari driver on the grid. Sixth place for Hulkenberg marks the fourth top ten result in a row for the Sauber driver, who, if the paddock rumours are to be believed, has now signed a deal to join Lotus next season.
Coming home seventh was Esteban Gutierrez, who made a great start to climb immediately up to ninth and thereafter put in an assured performance behind the wheel of the second Sauber. It has taken a while for the Mexican to find his feet in F1, but since the summer break, Gutierrez has shown a marked upturn in form. Whether this will be enough to keep him in his seat for next season is an entirely different matter, however.
Having run in fourth early on, Rosberg ended up in eighth place after a drive-through penalty picked up at the first round of pit-stops as his Mercedes pit-crew released him into the path of Sergio Perez's McLaren. Rosberg was able to claw back some ground thereafter, but was unable to find a way by Gutierrez, behind whom he was stuck for the last half a dozen laps.
Another driver to pick up a drive-through penalty, albeit for pit-lane speeding, was Massa, who was forced to be content with a solitary point for tenth place; one position ahead of the Brazilian was McLaren's Jenson Button, who endured a fairly anonymous race en route to ninth.
Button's teammate Perez on the other hand had a far more eventful afternoon. Having run a creditable eighth early on, he lost time in the pits as a result of the near miss with Rosberg before becoming embroiled in an on-track skirmish with the German. Perez sustained a puncture in a clumsy attempt to defend his position from Rosberg at the Casio Triangle, dropping him to 15th at the chequered flag.
Eleventh place fell to Paul Di Resta in another tough race for Force India, who will now be looking over their shoulder at Sauber in the constructors' standings. Adrian Sutil meanwhile had to start from the very back of the grid following a penalty for a gearbox change, making his way up to 14th place by the finish.
Separating the two Force Indias were the Toro Rosso pair, Jean-Eric Vergne leading Daniel Ricciardo on this occasion. The latter started the race on the hard compound tyre, running as high as fourth before his first stop - holding up a pack of faster cars in the process. Any chance of Ricciardo scoring points nonetheless was blown out the water when he picked up a drive-through penalty for passing Di Resta by leaving the circuit.
Pastor Maldonado finished 16th, one place behind Perez, after a fairly brutal move on Williams teammate Valtteri Bottas at the Casio Triangle on the very last lap of the race. Rounding out the finishers were Charles Pic and Max Chilton, their respective teammates Giedo van der Garde and Jules Bianchi becoming early casualties after tangling at the very first corner of the race.
It's one thing to start a race from pole and simply sprint away into the distance, but it's quite another to have to read a race to perfection in order to come from behind and grab the upper hand over your competitors, which is precisely what Vettel did at Suzuka - if his performance doesn't make the naysayers who claim that he cannot race think otherwise, it's doubtful anything the soon-to-be quadruple champion does will.
10 October 2013
Japanese Grand Prix 2013 - Preview
Following a crushing streak of dominance since Formula One action resumed after the summer break, this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka marks the first occasion that Sebastian Vettel has the chance of closing out his fourth successive title.
By far the oldest and the most loved of the Asian flyaway rounds, Suzuka has been a fixture on the F1 calendar since 1987 - with the exception of a brief, two-year hiatus, when the rival Fuji Speedway took over the mantle. What's more, the fact that the owners of the venue, Honda, are making their return in 2015 as an engine supplier to McLaren should ensure the circuit remains on the calendar even after its recently extended deal expires after 2018.
The fact that Suzuka has always fallen near (or, for many years, at) the end of the season has lent itself to frequently hosting the title-deciding race, most recently with Vettel's second championship two years ago. It also rarely throws up a surprise winner; the last time a driver won there without finishing first or second in that year's championship was 2003, with Rubens Barrichello benefiting from his Ferrari teammate Michael Schumacher's problems in qualifying and the early part of the race.
The track itself is among the longest and most demanding of the year. Driver and car are put through a rigourous test lap after lap, the flowing first sector in particular notable for showing up those cars whose front-end grip is lacking. Suzuka is also one of the more narrow circuits, with 'old school' gravel run-offs still present at many corners which leave very little margin for error.
The tyre allocation for the weekend consists of the medium and hard compounds, the latter last seen at Monza, while the single DRS zone (Suzuka being the only track besides Monaco to feature only one) can be found, as per last year, along the main start/finish straight on the approach to 'First Curve'.
Vettel's championship lead over Fernando Alonso stands at 77 points, which he will have to increase to 100 in order to seal the title this weekend. In order for this to happen, Vettel has to win the race, with Alonso finishing no better than ninth. Given that the Spaniard has finished at least eighth at every race this year, with the exception of his Malaysia retirement, this looks to be something of a tall ask.
On recent form however, it's more than likely Vettel would be able to put the title beyond the reach of his rivals at India in two weeks' time - all he has to do is ensure that his points lead is at least 75 by then, which, unless anything out of the ordinary occurs, is a virtual certainty.
Suzuka has been kind to Vettel in the past, the Red Bull driver having won three of the last four races at the Japanese circuit, and given that the track could have been designed specifically to flatter the Red Bull, it's difficult to look anywhere else for the race victory this weekend. Were Vettel indeed to notch up a fifth win in a row, he would be only the sixth driver to do so in history after Alberto Ascari, Jack Brabham, Jim Clark, Nigel Mansell and, of course, Michael Schumacher.
As for the contenders for the remaining podium spots, Mark Webber must surely be among them, if only for the simple reason that he is driving the same Suzuka-friendly car as Vettel. It's easy to forget that the Australian was firmly on course to finish fourth in Singapore before his car gave out, whilst a podium position would have been a strong probability had he been able to start the Korean race from third rather than 13th.
The new long wheelbase E21 had about as successful a debut race as Lotus could have hoped for, even if the Safety Car was instrumental in catapulting Kimi Raikkonen into podium contention. Romain Grosjean's strong showing at Korea may have been slightly overshadowed by Nico Hulkenberg's heroics one place behind, but the Frenchman has unquestionably come along considerably since he was branded a "first lap nutcase" by Webber a year ago.
Ferrari was woefully off the pace at Korea, Alonso unable to finish higher than sixth place, and given the team are no longer updating this year's car, it could prove a challenge for the Scuderia to hang on to second place in the constructors' standings from their rivals at Mercedes. The Silver Arrows showed a handy turn of pace at Korea, particularly over one lap, meaning that neither Lewis Hamilton nor Nico Rosberg can be ruled out of a top-three result this weekend.
Hulkenberg will no doubt be buoyed by memories of Kamui Kobayashi's sensational third place finish for Sauber at Suzuka last year as he seeks to impress potential employers (i.e. Lotus) for next season, while Sergio Perez will be anxious to avoid a repeat of his self-inflicted retirement at the Japanese venue last year with his McLaren future still not entirely secure.
Another driver who needs a strong result is Paul Di Resta. Force India look to be spoiled for choice as far as drivers are concerned in 2014, with Nico Hulkenberg, Felipe Massa and McLaren junior Kevin Magnussen all potential options, in addition to the two incumbents, depending on what Lotus decide. With this in mind, Di Resta needs a strong result in Japan to banish memories of the last three races as decision time looms ever closer.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Massa, 10. Ricciardo
Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Grosjean, 4. Hamilton, 5. Alonso, 6. Rosberg, 7. Button, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez
It will be a fifth successive win for Vettel, but not quite a fourth successive title - thanks to Alonso's fifth place, the German's inevitable coronation will have to be delayed for two weeks. Webber will finally have a clean weekend after his recent mishaps to make it the first Red Bull one-two since Malaysia, with Grosjean making it two podium appearances in a row thanks to the superior race pace of his Lotus in comparison with Hamilton's Mercedes.
Rosberg will bring home the second Brackley-built car in sixth, just behind Alonso, with Jenson Button enjoying a steady run to seventh place. The ever-impressive Hulkenberg will make it four points-scoring races on the bounce with eighth place, followed by Daniel Ricciardo - who will take the ninth place finish he deserved in Korea - and Perez. Having been the major beneficiary of the Safety Car last time out, Raikkonen is my pick to experience some misfortune on Sunday, along with Massa.
By far the oldest and the most loved of the Asian flyaway rounds, Suzuka has been a fixture on the F1 calendar since 1987 - with the exception of a brief, two-year hiatus, when the rival Fuji Speedway took over the mantle. What's more, the fact that the owners of the venue, Honda, are making their return in 2015 as an engine supplier to McLaren should ensure the circuit remains on the calendar even after its recently extended deal expires after 2018.
The fact that Suzuka has always fallen near (or, for many years, at) the end of the season has lent itself to frequently hosting the title-deciding race, most recently with Vettel's second championship two years ago. It also rarely throws up a surprise winner; the last time a driver won there without finishing first or second in that year's championship was 2003, with Rubens Barrichello benefiting from his Ferrari teammate Michael Schumacher's problems in qualifying and the early part of the race.
The track itself is among the longest and most demanding of the year. Driver and car are put through a rigourous test lap after lap, the flowing first sector in particular notable for showing up those cars whose front-end grip is lacking. Suzuka is also one of the more narrow circuits, with 'old school' gravel run-offs still present at many corners which leave very little margin for error.
The tyre allocation for the weekend consists of the medium and hard compounds, the latter last seen at Monza, while the single DRS zone (Suzuka being the only track besides Monaco to feature only one) can be found, as per last year, along the main start/finish straight on the approach to 'First Curve'.
Vettel's championship lead over Fernando Alonso stands at 77 points, which he will have to increase to 100 in order to seal the title this weekend. In order for this to happen, Vettel has to win the race, with Alonso finishing no better than ninth. Given that the Spaniard has finished at least eighth at every race this year, with the exception of his Malaysia retirement, this looks to be something of a tall ask.
On recent form however, it's more than likely Vettel would be able to put the title beyond the reach of his rivals at India in two weeks' time - all he has to do is ensure that his points lead is at least 75 by then, which, unless anything out of the ordinary occurs, is a virtual certainty.
Suzuka has been kind to Vettel in the past, the Red Bull driver having won three of the last four races at the Japanese circuit, and given that the track could have been designed specifically to flatter the Red Bull, it's difficult to look anywhere else for the race victory this weekend. Were Vettel indeed to notch up a fifth win in a row, he would be only the sixth driver to do so in history after Alberto Ascari, Jack Brabham, Jim Clark, Nigel Mansell and, of course, Michael Schumacher.
As for the contenders for the remaining podium spots, Mark Webber must surely be among them, if only for the simple reason that he is driving the same Suzuka-friendly car as Vettel. It's easy to forget that the Australian was firmly on course to finish fourth in Singapore before his car gave out, whilst a podium position would have been a strong probability had he been able to start the Korean race from third rather than 13th.
The new long wheelbase E21 had about as successful a debut race as Lotus could have hoped for, even if the Safety Car was instrumental in catapulting Kimi Raikkonen into podium contention. Romain Grosjean's strong showing at Korea may have been slightly overshadowed by Nico Hulkenberg's heroics one place behind, but the Frenchman has unquestionably come along considerably since he was branded a "first lap nutcase" by Webber a year ago.
Ferrari was woefully off the pace at Korea, Alonso unable to finish higher than sixth place, and given the team are no longer updating this year's car, it could prove a challenge for the Scuderia to hang on to second place in the constructors' standings from their rivals at Mercedes. The Silver Arrows showed a handy turn of pace at Korea, particularly over one lap, meaning that neither Lewis Hamilton nor Nico Rosberg can be ruled out of a top-three result this weekend.
Hulkenberg will no doubt be buoyed by memories of Kamui Kobayashi's sensational third place finish for Sauber at Suzuka last year as he seeks to impress potential employers (i.e. Lotus) for next season, while Sergio Perez will be anxious to avoid a repeat of his self-inflicted retirement at the Japanese venue last year with his McLaren future still not entirely secure.
Another driver who needs a strong result is Paul Di Resta. Force India look to be spoiled for choice as far as drivers are concerned in 2014, with Nico Hulkenberg, Felipe Massa and McLaren junior Kevin Magnussen all potential options, in addition to the two incumbents, depending on what Lotus decide. With this in mind, Di Resta needs a strong result in Japan to banish memories of the last three races as decision time looms ever closer.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Massa, 10. Ricciardo
Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Grosjean, 4. Hamilton, 5. Alonso, 6. Rosberg, 7. Button, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez
It will be a fifth successive win for Vettel, but not quite a fourth successive title - thanks to Alonso's fifth place, the German's inevitable coronation will have to be delayed for two weeks. Webber will finally have a clean weekend after his recent mishaps to make it the first Red Bull one-two since Malaysia, with Grosjean making it two podium appearances in a row thanks to the superior race pace of his Lotus in comparison with Hamilton's Mercedes.
Rosberg will bring home the second Brackley-built car in sixth, just behind Alonso, with Jenson Button enjoying a steady run to seventh place. The ever-impressive Hulkenberg will make it four points-scoring races on the bounce with eighth place, followed by Daniel Ricciardo - who will take the ninth place finish he deserved in Korea - and Perez. Having been the major beneficiary of the Safety Car last time out, Raikkonen is my pick to experience some misfortune on Sunday, along with Massa.
7 October 2013
Korean Grand Prix 2013 - Report
After the display of utter brilliance that was Singapore, Sebastian Vettel went about imposing himself on the rest of the field in a slightly more subtle manner at Korea.
Instead of galloping away at a vast rate of knots, Vettel seemed to be playing the percentages far more this weekend. Perhaps this was because of the fragility of the Pirelli tyres, which returned to being a major talking point of the weekend after several races out of the spotlight.
There was more criticism leveled at the Italian rubber after Sergio Perez suffered a tyre blowout not dissimilar to those seen at Silverstone, most notably from Fernando Alonso and Mark Webber. Regrettably, Pirelli's response to these comments was a rather petulant one, with Paul Hembery suggesting that Alonso take advice from a certain soon-to-be four-time world champion on tyre preservation.
Looking after the tyres appeared to be the main issue for Lewis Hamilton, the only man who looked to have the pace to really take the fight to Vettel. The Mercedes driver missed out on pole position by just two tenths of a second and dropped behind Romain Grosjean's Lotus at the start of the race while Vettel made a clean getaway to lead the pack.
Whilst the Franco-Swiss wasn't left behind by Vettel in the same way Nico Rosberg was two weeks ago, it soon became clear that Grosjean could not provide any real challenge to the runaway championship leader, who after quickly opening a lead of around three seconds appeared to back off and hold his ground.
Behind, on the first lap, Massa's spin on the apex of turn three shuffled the order as some drivers had to take significant evasive action to avoid the stricken Ferrari. Rosberg maintained fourth place behind his teammate, but Alonso, who had started fifth, fell behind the Sauber of Nico Hulkenberg thanks to Massa's error.
With virtually the entire field starting on option tyres, the first phase of pit-stops commenced in earnest on lap nine, when Hamilton and Alonso both pitted for primes. Grosjean, Rosberg and Hulkenberg all followed suit the next lap, with Vettel making his first stop at the end of lap 11.
The Red Bull driver managed to extend his lead over Grosjean to around six seconds during the second stint, during which Hamilton struggled badly with tyre wear and consequently began to fall away from Grosjean and towards teammate Rosberg.
In the meantime, Hulkenberg now had a queue forming in his wake consisting of Alonso, Kimi Raikkonen and Webber, who had made progress from his lowly starting position of 13th (courtesy of a ten-place grid penalty he picked up for his actions during the slowing-down lap at Singapore) since the start.
Haemorrhaging time relative to the leaders, Raikkonen opted to make his second stop relatively early, on lap 25, in a bid to jump his rivals. This decision proved to be a tactical masterstroke, as, just six laps later, the Safety Car was deployed in response to Perez's exploding front-right tyre, which was no doubt aided by a particularly nasty lock-up a couple of corners beforehand.
Haemorrhaging time relative to the leaders, Raikkonen opted to make his second stop relatively early, on lap 25, in a bid to jump his rivals. This decision proved to be a tactical masterstroke, as, just six laps later, the Safety Car was deployed in response to Perez's exploding front-right tyre, which was no doubt aided by a particularly nasty lock-up a couple of corners beforehand.
The perennially unlucky Webber, running just behind the McLaren driver at the time having made his second stop, ran over the ensuing debris and was forced to pit for a third time, though this soon proved inconsequential.
Vettel and Grosjean both headed to the pits at the end of lap 31 for fresh primes, resuming first and second, but Raikkonen, having been released into clean air after his stop, leapt up from seventh to third. This demoted Hamilton to fourth, ahead of Hulkenberg, Alonso, Jenson Button and Rosberg, who lost ground after a lengthy pit-stop to replace a broken nose section.
Rosberg was fortunate not to have more damage done to his car as, along the lengthy back straight on lap 28, whilst he was coming up to overtake Hamilton, the German's nose section suddenly drooped. This caused the front wing to drag along the tarmac, creating a spectacular shower of sparks for the better part of a lap.
Rosberg was fortunate not to have more damage done to his car as, along the lengthy back straight on lap 28, whilst he was coming up to overtake Hamilton, the German's nose section suddenly drooped. This caused the front wing to drag along the tarmac, creating a spectacular shower of sparks for the better part of a lap.
It didn't take long for the Safety Car to re-emerge after the race restarted on lap 37, as Adrian Sutil misjudged his braking for turn three and clouted the side of Webber's car. Whilst the Force India was able to continue, the impact burst the Red Bull's oil radiator, causing car #2 to burst into flames for the second time in as many races.
Force India ultimately chose to retire Sutil with a few laps remaining, any chance of scoring points having gone up in smoke along with Webber's car when the German picked up a drive-through penalty for pit-lane speeding, rounding off a dismal afternoon for the team during which Paul Di Resta retired with yet another driving error. The Scot held his hands up to his mistake on this occasion, but his F1 career could be in grave danger if he suffers any more slips like this in the remaining races.
Force India ultimately chose to retire Sutil with a few laps remaining, any chance of scoring points having gone up in smoke along with Webber's car when the German picked up a drive-through penalty for pit-lane speeding, rounding off a dismal afternoon for the team during which Paul Di Resta retired with yet another driving error. The Scot held his hands up to his mistake on this occasion, but his F1 career could be in grave danger if he suffers any more slips like this in the remaining races.
Between the Safety Car periods, Raikkonen set about challenging Grosjean for second place. The Finn was able to dive underneath his Lotus teammate at the first corner on lap 38, but, once the race got back underway in earnest, Vettel quickly began to pull clear.
Indeed, there was nothing Raikkonen could do to prevent Vettel from reeling off the remaining laps and sealing his 34th career victory in typically dominant style. His championship lead now stands at 77 points, meaning the German has a chance of wrapping things up next time out at Japan if his closest rival Alonso fails to score at least three points.
Raikkonen and Grosjean held on for second and third places, the third time this season that the Lotus duo have completed the podium behind Vettel. After being passed, Grosjean closed in on his teammate in the closing laps, and admitted to being disappointed that the team didn't order Raikkonen aside. Still, it was another assured drive from Grosjean, who now looks to be well-placed to lead Lotus next year in Kimi's absence.
With any luck, lining up alongside Grosjean in 2014 will be Hulkenberg, who was undoubtedly driver of the race in fourth place. The Sauber driver moved ahead of the ailing Hamilton just after the first restart with a decisive pass at the unlikely location of turn 15, and held on thereafter to match his best finish in F1.
Hulkenberg's traction out of the first corner and impressive top speed were enough to keep Hamilton frustrated, meaning the Englishman was forced to be content with fifth place ahead of Alonso, Rosberg and Button, who fell behind the second Mercedes with two laps remaining.
Daniel Ricciardo was on course to finish a fine ninth place, but suffered brake problems just two laps from home and was obliged to park his Toro Rosso. The same problem also halted the progress of team-mate Jean-Eric Vergne, though the Frenchman was never in the frame for a points finish.
That meant that the points finishers were completed by Massa and Perez, both of whom did well to recover from their earlier dramas. Just missing out on his first points finish in 11th, following another Q3 appearance on Saturday, was Esteban Gutierrez in the second Sauber, whose inexperience showed during a wheel-to-wheel battle with his fellow Latin Americans late in the race.
Hulkenberg's traction out of the first corner and impressive top speed were enough to keep Hamilton frustrated, meaning the Englishman was forced to be content with fifth place ahead of Alonso, Rosberg and Button, who fell behind the second Mercedes with two laps remaining.
Daniel Ricciardo was on course to finish a fine ninth place, but suffered brake problems just two laps from home and was obliged to park his Toro Rosso. The same problem also halted the progress of team-mate Jean-Eric Vergne, though the Frenchman was never in the frame for a points finish.
That meant that the points finishers were completed by Massa and Perez, both of whom did well to recover from their earlier dramas. Just missing out on his first points finish in 11th, following another Q3 appearance on Saturday, was Esteban Gutierrez in the second Sauber, whose inexperience showed during a wheel-to-wheel battle with his fellow Latin Americans late in the race.
Next home were the Williams duo of Valtteri Bottas and Pastor Maldonado, who were off the pace as ever even if the latter was able to drag his car as high as ninth place in the opening laps thanks to a scintillating start. Charles Pic came home in 14th, just one place shy of the magic 13th position that would see his Caterham team re-take tenth in the constructors' standings ahead of Marussia.
It was certainly an eventful, if not hugely exciting race at Korea, yet one which many paddock insiders expect to be the last. Should this transpire to be the case, the Yeongam circuit will be remembered predominantly for Vettel's sheer brilliance at the venue - hardly a trait which is likely to mean that it is missed by the vast majority of F1 fans.
It was certainly an eventful, if not hugely exciting race at Korea, yet one which many paddock insiders expect to be the last. Should this transpire to be the case, the Yeongam circuit will be remembered predominantly for Vettel's sheer brilliance at the venue - hardly a trait which is likely to mean that it is missed by the vast majority of F1 fans.
3 October 2013
Korean Grand Prix 2013 - Preview
This weekend's Korean Grand Prix marks the start of Formula One's helter-skelter end to the season, with the remaining six races of the year held in the space of just eight short weekends.
If one word sums up the Korean International Circuit, situated near the port city of Mokpo, it would perhaps be 'unloved'. Since the fixture was added to the F1 calendar for the 2010 season, it has consistently had to grapple with doubts over the its future in the wake of dismal attendance figures and loss-making on the part of the promoters.
It's not hard to see why this has become the case, however. Not only is there seemingly a profound lack of interest in the sport in Korea, with no Korean teams or drivers having ever competed, the circuit itself is in a relatively remote region of the country - it would take a pretty committed fan living in Seoul to make the five-hour train journey south to see the Grand Prix.
Small wonder, then, that it has been widely speculated that this year's event will be the last Korean Grand Prix. It seems likely that the recently announced 22-race draft 2014 calendar will eventually be trimmed down by one or two races, and for the above reasons, Korea is by far the most likely of the existing venues to miss the final cut.
The track itself is a rather bizarre concoction, boasting three rather distinct sections. The first is all about horsepower and traction, featuring the longest straight in Formula One book-ended by a brace of tight corners. The second is characterised by a long series of sweeping medium-speed bends, while the third has a distinct street-circuit flavour to it.
Just like at the previous race at Singapore, the super-soft and medium compound tyres will be in action this weekend, whilst the two DRS zones can be located along the aforementioned 1.2km straight as well as the main start/finish straight preceding it.
One man has made Korea his own since it joined the F1 calendar, and that man is Sebastian Vettel. He has dominated the last two races, leading home a Red Bull one-two last year, and would have won in 2010 as well if not for a rare engine problem that gifted Fernando Alonso the win instead.
The circuit suits the Red Bull down to the ground, and, particularly after the crushing display at Singapore, it's unsurprising that Vettel's rivals are already writing this weekend off as a foregone conclusion. The only thing that could stop the German, it seems, is a dose of mechanical unreliability or inclement weather.
Alonso, the only other driver to have won at Korea besides Vettel, has finished in second to the champion-elect at each of the last three races, making it the first time in F1 history that two drivers who are not teammates have finished first and second for three races in a row.
Ferrari are now said to have ceased development on this year's car, and wisely so - there's just no way that Alonso, as superbly as he has driven in recent races, can bridge the 60 point gap. All he can aim to do is cement what would be his third runner-up spot in four years and try and keep Ferrari clear of Mercedes in the constructors' standings.
Such is Red Bull's pedigree at Korea that a podium would surely feel like a victory this weekend.
Things will be more of a challenge for Vettel's teammate Mark Webber, who must fight his way through the field having picked up a ten-place grid penalty for hitching a ride with Alonso during the slowing-down lap at Singapore. A solid haul of points will probably be the most the Australian, who has admitted to struggling to be able to keep his motivation high, can hope for this weekend.
Mercedes will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing Singapore race, where they were widely touted as Red Bull's strongest likely challengers pre-race. Admittedly, Nico Rosberg's pace was affected by some rubber getting caught in his front wing, but they'll have to perform better over a race distance than they did last time if they are to overhaul Ferrari in the teams' table.
Meanwhile, Kimi Raikkonen has dismissed concerns that he may not race this weekend due to the back pain problems that hobbled his qualifying efforts at Singapore and will no doubt be eyeing another trip to the podium with the revised long-base Lotus E21. On the other side of the garage, it will be fascinating to see whether Romain Grosjean can keep up the pace he showed last time before his car's rare pneumatic issue.
As the driver market continues to slowly fall into place, with Marussia announcing this morning that they would be retaining Jules Bianchi for next year, the pressure is on for many of the drivers up and down the grid to prove their worth.
Nico Hulkenberg and Felipe Massa are probably the two most attractive free agents, both having been linked to the vacancy at Lotus left by Raikkonen. Both, then, must demonstrate that they are the right choice for the Enstone-based team, whilst certain other drivers - most notably McLaren's Sergio Perez, seemingly - have work to do to extinguish doubts as to whether they ought to be retained.
After all, several other drivers currently languishing on the sidelines, including Vitaly Petrov, Heikki Kovalainen and even Rubens Barrichello, have all been linked to returns to various teams. Arguably, the pressure has never been higher for a driver to convince merely that they deserve to be on the F1 grid at all.
Qualifying Predictions
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Rosberg, 4. Grosjean, 5.Alonso, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Massa, 8. Button, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez
Race Predictions
1. Vettel. 2. Alonso, 3. Hamilton, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Grosjean, 6. Webber, 7. Massa, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Ricciardo. 10. Perez
Not only am I going to be dull and predict a Vettel victory, but I am going to be extra-dull and predict the same race result we've seen for the past three race weekends, with Alonso following the Red Bull man home. Hamilton meanwhile will find himself battling Raikkonen for the final podium position, narrowly beating the Finn to the post.
Grosjean will register a solid finish in fifth, with Webber making his way up from the midfield to sixth ahead of Massa. The ever-impressive Hulkenberg will snatch eighth position for Sauber, while Daniel Ricciardo and Sergio Perez will round out the points-scorers. Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg are my nominees this weekend to encounter some misfortune.
If one word sums up the Korean International Circuit, situated near the port city of Mokpo, it would perhaps be 'unloved'. Since the fixture was added to the F1 calendar for the 2010 season, it has consistently had to grapple with doubts over the its future in the wake of dismal attendance figures and loss-making on the part of the promoters.
It's not hard to see why this has become the case, however. Not only is there seemingly a profound lack of interest in the sport in Korea, with no Korean teams or drivers having ever competed, the circuit itself is in a relatively remote region of the country - it would take a pretty committed fan living in Seoul to make the five-hour train journey south to see the Grand Prix.
Small wonder, then, that it has been widely speculated that this year's event will be the last Korean Grand Prix. It seems likely that the recently announced 22-race draft 2014 calendar will eventually be trimmed down by one or two races, and for the above reasons, Korea is by far the most likely of the existing venues to miss the final cut.
The track itself is a rather bizarre concoction, boasting three rather distinct sections. The first is all about horsepower and traction, featuring the longest straight in Formula One book-ended by a brace of tight corners. The second is characterised by a long series of sweeping medium-speed bends, while the third has a distinct street-circuit flavour to it.
Just like at the previous race at Singapore, the super-soft and medium compound tyres will be in action this weekend, whilst the two DRS zones can be located along the aforementioned 1.2km straight as well as the main start/finish straight preceding it.
One man has made Korea his own since it joined the F1 calendar, and that man is Sebastian Vettel. He has dominated the last two races, leading home a Red Bull one-two last year, and would have won in 2010 as well if not for a rare engine problem that gifted Fernando Alonso the win instead.
The circuit suits the Red Bull down to the ground, and, particularly after the crushing display at Singapore, it's unsurprising that Vettel's rivals are already writing this weekend off as a foregone conclusion. The only thing that could stop the German, it seems, is a dose of mechanical unreliability or inclement weather.
Alonso, the only other driver to have won at Korea besides Vettel, has finished in second to the champion-elect at each of the last three races, making it the first time in F1 history that two drivers who are not teammates have finished first and second for three races in a row.
Ferrari are now said to have ceased development on this year's car, and wisely so - there's just no way that Alonso, as superbly as he has driven in recent races, can bridge the 60 point gap. All he can aim to do is cement what would be his third runner-up spot in four years and try and keep Ferrari clear of Mercedes in the constructors' standings.
Such is Red Bull's pedigree at Korea that a podium would surely feel like a victory this weekend.
Things will be more of a challenge for Vettel's teammate Mark Webber, who must fight his way through the field having picked up a ten-place grid penalty for hitching a ride with Alonso during the slowing-down lap at Singapore. A solid haul of points will probably be the most the Australian, who has admitted to struggling to be able to keep his motivation high, can hope for this weekend.
Mercedes will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing Singapore race, where they were widely touted as Red Bull's strongest likely challengers pre-race. Admittedly, Nico Rosberg's pace was affected by some rubber getting caught in his front wing, but they'll have to perform better over a race distance than they did last time if they are to overhaul Ferrari in the teams' table.
Meanwhile, Kimi Raikkonen has dismissed concerns that he may not race this weekend due to the back pain problems that hobbled his qualifying efforts at Singapore and will no doubt be eyeing another trip to the podium with the revised long-base Lotus E21. On the other side of the garage, it will be fascinating to see whether Romain Grosjean can keep up the pace he showed last time before his car's rare pneumatic issue.
As the driver market continues to slowly fall into place, with Marussia announcing this morning that they would be retaining Jules Bianchi for next year, the pressure is on for many of the drivers up and down the grid to prove their worth.
Nico Hulkenberg and Felipe Massa are probably the two most attractive free agents, both having been linked to the vacancy at Lotus left by Raikkonen. Both, then, must demonstrate that they are the right choice for the Enstone-based team, whilst certain other drivers - most notably McLaren's Sergio Perez, seemingly - have work to do to extinguish doubts as to whether they ought to be retained.
After all, several other drivers currently languishing on the sidelines, including Vitaly Petrov, Heikki Kovalainen and even Rubens Barrichello, have all been linked to returns to various teams. Arguably, the pressure has never been higher for a driver to convince merely that they deserve to be on the F1 grid at all.
Qualifying Predictions
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Rosberg, 4. Grosjean, 5.Alonso, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Massa, 8. Button, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez
Race Predictions
1. Vettel. 2. Alonso, 3. Hamilton, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Grosjean, 6. Webber, 7. Massa, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Ricciardo. 10. Perez
Not only am I going to be dull and predict a Vettel victory, but I am going to be extra-dull and predict the same race result we've seen for the past three race weekends, with Alonso following the Red Bull man home. Hamilton meanwhile will find himself battling Raikkonen for the final podium position, narrowly beating the Finn to the post.
Grosjean will register a solid finish in fifth, with Webber making his way up from the midfield to sixth ahead of Massa. The ever-impressive Hulkenberg will snatch eighth position for Sauber, while Daniel Ricciardo and Sergio Perez will round out the points-scorers. Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg are my nominees this weekend to encounter some misfortune.
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