What looks likely to be the last Indian Grand Prix for the forseeable future is poised to hold the distinction of setting the scene for Sebastian Vettel claiming his fourth successive Formula One title.
It's fair to say that, despite a promising start when the Buddh International circuit hosted India's inaugural in 2011, that F1 has failed to establish a foothold in the subcontinent. Attendances have been in decline, and the Indian government's apparent indifference towards the Grand Prix has perhaps come as a shock to a sport accustomed to being welcomed with open arms in other parts of the globe.
Despite the official reasons stated for India's omission from next year's calendar, it's obvious that the Indian government's classification of F1 as 'entertainment' rather than 'sport', and the ensuing tax ramifications, is at the heart of why the race has been axed. The race is supposedly set to re-appear in 2015, but this appears doubtful unless the Indian government's attitude towards F1 changes.
Indeed, there had been some uncertainty as to whether this weekend's race was going to go ahead at all amid a backdrop of a legal challenge over unpaid taxes on the part of the race promoter. Whilst a delay to this hearing has averted any threat of the race being cancelled, the uncertainty epitomised the uneasy relationship between India and F1.
The track itself is another of Hermann Tilke's creations, and is notable for its very long back straight, unique wide hairpin bends and its meandering middle sector which overwhelmingly favours the characteristics of the Red Bull. It's little co-incidence, therefore, that Vettel has taken two pole positions and two wins from two visits to the circuit, and that the odds of him making it a hat-trick are as short as 1/4 at the time of writing.
Should the German do exactly that, the title will be his - Vettel has a lead of 90 points heading into this weekend's encounter, meaning he needs to only finish fifth or higher to seal the deal regardless of what any of his competitors do.
When you bear in mind that Vettel has failed to finish lower than fourth all season (with the exception of his retirement at the British Grand Prix due to a rare gearbox failure), it would take something very much out of the ordinary to keep the title fight alive beyond this weekend.
Red Bull are also within touching distance of the constructors' crown, but the fight for second is hotting up nicely in light of the Lotus team's recent competitive upswing.
Just 33 points now separate Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus in the standings; considering the Enstone-based have had at least one car on the podium at the last three races, their chances of overhauling their better-funded rivals seem strong, especially when you bear in mind that development of this year's cars has all but ceased.
That in turn means that this weekend's race is likely to follow a broadly similar pattern to the previous couple in terms of the competitive order, making Lotus the only team capable of challenging Red Bull hegemony this weekend.
Romain Grosjean's race pace may not have been good enough to realistically challenge for victory despite his scintillating start at Suzuka, but the fact that tyre wear is likely to play a greater role this time around - with the soft compound tyre in use this weekend alongside the medium - could give the Frenchman a better chance of overcoming the all-conquering RB9s than in previous races.
Kimi Raikkonen can also not be ruled out of contention either, but his lacklustre performances in qualifying in recent races have constrained his ability to fight at the front. It's worth noting also that Lotus have been recently forced to deny rumours of the Finn being de-motivated during the closing part of this season in light of Vettel's domination.
Elsewhere, the chances are that the Mercedes drivers meanwhile will qualify well only to fade during the race, whilst Fernando Alonso will make his customarily incisive progress through the field having started disappointingly low down the order. Watch out for Nico Hulkenberg to take another solid haul of points as well, which could prove instrumental in Sauber's quest to overhaul Force India in the constructors' standings before the year is out.
Understandably, most people have turned their attentions towards next season, and the midfield driver market is looking very fluid indeed. Recent speculation points strongly towards Felipe Massa landing a seat at Williams next year alongside Valtteri Bottas and the disillusioned Pastor Maldonado leaving the Grove-based outfit and taking his PDVSA cash elsewhere, possibly to Force India if Nico Hulkenberg is confirmed at Lotus as expected.
That in turn would mean one of Paul Di Resta or Adrian Sutil would be forced out, though the latter has been linked to a seat with Sauber alongside Russian youngster Sergey Sirotkin. It emerged yesterday however that Vitaly Petrov has now amassed 30 million euros worth of backing from Gazprom, and also been in talks with Sauber. There have also been suggestions that Esteban Gutierrez could yet remain at the Swiss team, too.
One team that has settled its line-up on the other hand is Toro Rosso, who shocked the paddock by announcing that GP3 driver Daniil Kvyat is to step up to the team to join Jean-Eric Vergne. The 19-year-old Russian was considered to be more promising than fellow Red Bull juniors Antonio Felix da Costa and Carlos Sainz Jr., both of whom are more experienced.
It will nonetheless be an incredibly tough learning curve for Kvyat, who like compatriot Sirotkin, would surely have benefitted enormously from a season of Friday practice sessions combined with another year's competition in the junior formulae. Let's just hope that Red Bull's decision to fast-track Kvyat into F1 at such an early age doesn't result in his potential being squandered.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Hamilton, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Massa, 9. Button, 10. Hulkenberg
Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Grosjean, 3. Webber, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Alonso, 6. Hamilton, 7. Hulkenberg, 8. Massa, 9. Button, 10. Ricciardo
Unfortunately, it's hard to see how Vettel will be thwarted this weekend, though Grosjean will provide some respite by getting his Lotus cat among the Red Bull pigeons with another standout drive. Raikkonen will be outclassed by his teammate once more due to a sub-par qualifying, with Alonso and Hamilton rounding out the top half-dozen.
Hulkenberg will make it five points-scoring finishes in a row with seventh place, with Massa, Button and Ricciardo rounding out the points in what I predict to be largely a rather dull race. After qualifying up in fifth, Rosberg will be on the receiving end of some misfortune this weekend that will prevent him scoring.
No comments:
Post a Comment