Following a crushing streak of dominance since Formula One action resumed after the summer break, this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka marks the first occasion that Sebastian Vettel has the chance of closing out his fourth successive title.
By far the oldest and the most loved of the Asian flyaway rounds, Suzuka has been a fixture on the F1 calendar since 1987 - with the exception of a brief, two-year hiatus, when the rival Fuji Speedway took over the mantle. What's more, the fact that the owners of the venue, Honda, are making their return in 2015 as an engine supplier to McLaren should ensure the circuit remains on the calendar even after its recently extended deal expires after 2018.
The fact that Suzuka has always fallen near (or, for many years, at) the end of the season has lent itself to frequently hosting the title-deciding race, most recently with Vettel's second championship two years ago. It also rarely throws up a surprise winner; the last time a driver won there without finishing first or second in that year's championship was 2003, with Rubens Barrichello benefiting from his Ferrari teammate Michael Schumacher's problems in qualifying and the early part of the race.
The track itself is among the longest and most demanding of the year. Driver and car are put through a rigourous test lap after lap, the flowing first sector in particular notable for showing up those cars whose front-end grip is lacking. Suzuka is also one of the more narrow circuits, with 'old school' gravel run-offs still present at many corners which leave very little margin for error.
The tyre allocation for the weekend consists of the medium and hard compounds, the latter last seen at Monza, while the single DRS zone (Suzuka being the only track besides Monaco to feature only one) can be found, as per last year, along the main start/finish straight on the approach to 'First Curve'.
Vettel's championship lead over Fernando Alonso stands at 77 points, which he will have to increase to 100 in order to seal the title this weekend. In order for this to happen, Vettel has to win the race, with Alonso finishing no better than ninth. Given that the Spaniard has finished at least eighth at every race this year, with the exception of his Malaysia retirement, this looks to be something of a tall ask.
On recent form however, it's more than likely Vettel would be able to put the title beyond the reach of his rivals at India in two weeks' time - all he has to do is ensure that his points lead is at least 75 by then, which, unless anything out of the ordinary occurs, is a virtual certainty.
Suzuka has been kind to Vettel in the past, the Red Bull driver having won three of the last four races at the Japanese circuit, and given that the track could have been designed specifically to flatter the Red Bull, it's difficult to look anywhere else for the race victory this weekend. Were Vettel indeed to notch up a fifth win in a row, he would be only the sixth driver to do so in history after Alberto Ascari, Jack Brabham, Jim Clark, Nigel Mansell and, of course, Michael Schumacher.
As for the contenders for the remaining podium spots, Mark Webber must surely be among them, if only for the simple reason that he is driving the same Suzuka-friendly car as Vettel. It's easy to forget that the Australian was firmly on course to finish fourth in Singapore before his car gave out, whilst a podium position would have been a strong probability had he been able to start the Korean race from third rather than 13th.
The new long wheelbase E21 had about as successful a debut race as Lotus could have hoped for, even if the Safety Car was instrumental in catapulting Kimi Raikkonen into podium contention. Romain Grosjean's strong showing at Korea may have been slightly overshadowed by Nico Hulkenberg's heroics one place behind, but the Frenchman has unquestionably come along considerably since he was branded a "first lap nutcase" by Webber a year ago.
Ferrari was woefully off the pace at Korea, Alonso unable to finish higher than sixth place, and given the team are no longer updating this year's car, it could prove a challenge for the Scuderia to hang on to second place in the constructors' standings from their rivals at Mercedes. The Silver Arrows showed a handy turn of pace at Korea, particularly over one lap, meaning that neither Lewis Hamilton nor Nico Rosberg can be ruled out of a top-three result this weekend.
Hulkenberg will no doubt be buoyed by memories of Kamui Kobayashi's sensational third place finish for Sauber at Suzuka last year as he seeks to impress potential employers (i.e. Lotus) for next season, while Sergio Perez will be anxious to avoid a repeat of his self-inflicted retirement at the Japanese venue last year with his McLaren future still not entirely secure.
Another driver who needs a strong result is Paul Di Resta. Force India look to be spoiled for choice as far as drivers are concerned in 2014, with Nico Hulkenberg, Felipe Massa and McLaren junior Kevin Magnussen all potential options, in addition to the two incumbents, depending on what Lotus decide. With this in mind, Di Resta needs a strong result in Japan to banish memories of the last three races as decision time looms ever closer.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Grosjean, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Massa, 10. Ricciardo
Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Grosjean, 4. Hamilton, 5. Alonso, 6. Rosberg, 7. Button, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez
It will be a fifth successive win for Vettel, but not quite a fourth successive title - thanks to Alonso's fifth place, the German's inevitable coronation will have to be delayed for two weeks. Webber will finally have a clean weekend after his recent mishaps to make it the first Red Bull one-two since Malaysia, with Grosjean making it two podium appearances in a row thanks to the superior race pace of his Lotus in comparison with Hamilton's Mercedes.
Rosberg will bring home the second Brackley-built car in sixth, just behind Alonso, with Jenson Button enjoying a steady run to seventh place. The ever-impressive Hulkenberg will make it four points-scoring races on the bounce with eighth place, followed by Daniel Ricciardo - who will take the ninth place finish he deserved in Korea - and Perez. Having been the major beneficiary of the Safety Car last time out, Raikkonen is my pick to experience some misfortune on Sunday, along with Massa.
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