For me, the last two Formula One Grands Prix at Korea and Japan have been especially notable - not for the continued dominance of Sebastian Vettel, who is firmly on course to wrap up the title next weekend at India, but for the clearest indications yet of a new generation of talent emerging.
Two drivers in particular have stood out during these races - Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg. The former, as I have written for The Sideline Agenda, has truly matured into a potential future champion since he looked like challenging for victory back at the German Grand Prix, and his back-to-back third places seem scant reward for two virtually faultless weekends in Korea and Japan.
Hulkenberg, meanwhile, has taken full advantage of Sauber's recent upswing in competitiveness. After registering a brilliant fourth place at Yeongam, frustrating Lewis Hamilton for much of the latter half of the race, another superb drive by the German at Suzuka saw him run in fourth for a significant proportion of the distance before being demoted to sixth by Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen in the closing stages.
Now that an investment deal between Lotus and investment consortium Quantum Motorsports (née Infinity Racing) is close to being finalised, it appears that Grosjean and Hulkenberg will line up as teammates at the Enstone-based outfit next year.
Assuming Lotus can remain competitive as the sport makes its transition to next year's radically revised regulations, it follows that the pair stand a solid chance of breaking their respective victory ducks. And, if they succeed in doing that, it could be the springboard to some form of championship challenge - whether that's with Lotus or another top team.
Another driver this applies to is Daniel Ricciardo, who will be deservedly making his debut for the current dominant force of the grid, Red Bull, in 2014 after a two-season apprenticeship with Toro Rosso. He won't be challenging the supremacy of teammate Vettel immediately, but he too has shown his Grand Prix winning potential and ought to be contending for titles before too long.
Thus, with Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, we have the makings of a 'post-Vettel' generation of drivers. The last time this process took place was around five years ago, when the younger of the sport's two established generations was formed.
Hamilton was the first to confirm his membership of this club, bursting on to the scene with McLaren in 2007 and very nearly winning the title at the first time of asking. Vettel and Nico Rosberg joined the Brit, impressing with lower teams in their first couple of seasons and being promoted to top teams in 2009 and 2010 respectively, but others struggled to make their mark.
It appeared that Heikki Kovalainen was also destined to be part of this grouping, having landed a prized McLaren seat in 2008, but his so-so performances during his two year stint at Woking were to curtail such ambitions. Now the Finn isn't so much as on the grid this season following three torrid, pointless seasons at Team Lotus/Caterham.
Others who emerged on the scene around this time but failed to last include Timo Glock, who already looked to be on his way out of Toyota even before the Japanese marque pulled the plug, Vitantonio Liuzzi, who failed to establish himself either at Toro Rosso or Force India, Kazuki Nakajima, who was shown up by Rosberg during his two-year stint at Williams, and Nelson Piquet Jr., whose had already been ditched by Renault before his reputation was dealt irreparable damage by the exposure of the Crashgate affair.
The plight of some of the above drivers is indicative of how a driver regarded as a promising talent can quickly find themselves out of favour if the results dry up. Admittedly, sponsorship dollars can play a pivotal role in this process, but Hulkenberg shows it's possible to get by without substantial funding if you're considered exceptional.
Of the 20 drivers present on the F1 grid five years ago, just nine are still around today; by that logic, no more than 10 or 11 of today's 22-strong field will remain on the grid five years from now. Whilst the likes of Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen - today's elder generation - will all have likely retired by this stage, that still means the majority of the youngsters will miss out.
It's probably safe to say that Vettel, as well as Mercedes duo Rosberg and Hamilton, will all still be around in five years' time. If we also include Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, that leaves a maximum of four or five spaces for the remainder of the field to cement their place as part of this upcoming generation and avoid falling by the wayside.
Sergio Perez is a good example of a driver whose career, at this stage, could go either way. His first season at McLaren hasn't been bad at all - whilst there have been perhaps a couple more mistakes than the Mexican may have liked, including his self-inflicted puncture at Suzuka, his race pace has been a match for teammate Button at nearly every race. Yet, McLaren have been rather hesitant to confirm Perez for next season.
It nevertheless seems likely Perez will be handed another season at McLaren, if only for a lack of alternatives now Hulkenberg appears Lotus-bound, but he'd certainly have to begin beating Button (who, let's face it, is unlikely to ever win another title) on a regular basis in order to guarantee his future.
Were he to do so, Perez would probably be lauded as a future champion. Were he to endure another campaign as inconsistent as this one, he would probably be dropped from the team, and after that it would be no easy job rebuilding his career - as Kovalainen can attest.
Paul Di Resta is another driver whose form this year has been erratic. Despite some strong early performances, most notably at Bahrain, before the Force India was hobbled by Pirelli's mid-season tyre revision, the Scot's case for remaining on board for 2014 has not been helped by a run of three straight retirements caused by driver error from Monza to Korea.
That said, it's far from too late to make amends for these errors, and, as is the case for Perez, a successful season next year could launch Di Resta's career into the stratosphere. On the other hand, a repeat of 2013 probably wouldn't be enough to guarantee his F1 future, especially as he lacks any significant financial backing.
Others for whom the jury is still out include Pastor Maldonado, who has suffered a dismal year with Williams after his breakthrough victory in Spain last year, and Jean-Eric Vergne, who has failed to score a point since his impressive drive to sixth place at Canada four months ago. Both could either sink or swim next year, which, much like Perez and Di Resta, could set the tone for the rest of their careers.
Will all four of these drivers still be around in 2018? It's doubtful, especially when they will be competing against such burgeoning talents as Valtteri Bottas, Jules Bianchi, Kevin Magnussen and Antonio Felix da Costa for precious seats. And, if the field is slimmed down to 20 cars in the next couple of years, as some expect it to, the pressure will further intensify to be not be left standing when the music stops.
Some sparkling performances this year mean that Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo looked to have set themselves up for long, successful F1 careers. Now, the fight is well and truly on for the rest of the sport's up-and-coming drivers to do likewise and not be consigned to the scrapheap of talent.
No comments:
Post a Comment