3 October 2013

Korean Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend's Korean Grand Prix marks the start of Formula One's helter-skelter end to the season, with the remaining six races of the year held in the space of just eight short weekends.

If one word sums up the Korean International Circuit, situated near the port city of Mokpo, it would perhaps be 'unloved'. Since the fixture was added to the F1 calendar for the 2010 season, it has consistently had to grapple with doubts over the its future in the wake of dismal attendance figures and loss-making on the part of the promoters.

It's not hard to see why this has become the case, however. Not only is there seemingly a profound lack of interest in the sport in Korea, with no Korean teams or drivers having ever competed, the circuit itself is in a relatively remote region of the country - it would take a pretty committed fan living in Seoul to make the five-hour train journey south to see the Grand Prix.

Small wonder, then, that it has been widely speculated that this year's event will be the last Korean Grand Prix. It seems likely that the recently announced 22-race draft 2014 calendar will eventually be trimmed down by one or two races, and for the above reasons, Korea is by far the most likely of the existing venues to miss the final cut.

The track itself is a rather bizarre concoction, boasting three rather distinct sections. The first is all about horsepower and traction, featuring the longest straight in Formula One book-ended by a brace of tight corners. The second is characterised by a long series of sweeping medium-speed bends, while the third has a distinct street-circuit flavour to it.

Just like at the previous race at Singapore, the super-soft and medium compound tyres will be in action this weekend, whilst the two DRS zones can be located along the aforementioned 1.2km straight as well as the main start/finish straight preceding it.

One man has made Korea his own since it joined the F1 calendar, and that man is Sebastian Vettel. He has dominated the last two races, leading home a Red Bull one-two last year, and would have won in 2010 as well if not for a rare engine problem that gifted Fernando Alonso the win instead.

The circuit suits the Red Bull down to the ground, and, particularly after the crushing display at Singapore, it's unsurprising that Vettel's rivals are already writing this weekend off as a foregone conclusion. The only thing that could stop the German, it seems, is a dose of mechanical unreliability or inclement weather.

Alonso, the only other driver to have won at Korea besides Vettel, has finished in second to the champion-elect at each of the last three races, making it the first time in F1 history that two drivers who are not teammates have finished first and second for three races in a row.

Ferrari are now said to have ceased development on this year's car, and wisely so - there's just no way that Alonso, as superbly as he has driven in recent races, can bridge the 60 point gap. All he can aim to do is cement what would be his third runner-up spot in four years and try and keep Ferrari clear of Mercedes in the constructors' standings.

Such is Red Bull's pedigree at Korea that a podium would surely feel like a victory this weekend.

Things will be more of a challenge for Vettel's teammate Mark Webber, who must fight his way through the field having picked up a ten-place grid penalty for hitching a ride with Alonso during the slowing-down lap at Singapore. A solid haul of points will probably be the most the Australian, who has admitted to struggling to be able to keep his motivation high, can hope for this weekend.

Mercedes will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing Singapore race, where they were widely touted as Red Bull's strongest likely challengers pre-race. Admittedly, Nico Rosberg's pace was affected by some rubber getting caught in his front wing, but they'll have to perform better over a race distance than they did last time if they are to overhaul Ferrari in the teams' table.

Meanwhile, Kimi Raikkonen has dismissed concerns that he may not race this weekend due to the back pain problems that hobbled his qualifying efforts at Singapore and will no doubt be eyeing another trip to the podium with the revised long-base Lotus E21. On the other side of the garage, it will be fascinating to see whether Romain Grosjean can keep up the pace he showed last time before his car's rare pneumatic issue.

As the driver market continues to slowly fall into place, with Marussia announcing this morning that they would be retaining Jules Bianchi for next year, the pressure is on for many of the drivers up and down the grid to prove their worth.

Nico Hulkenberg and Felipe Massa are probably the two most attractive free agents, both having been linked to the vacancy at Lotus left by Raikkonen. Both, then, must demonstrate that they are the right choice for the Enstone-based team, whilst certain other drivers - most notably McLaren's Sergio Perez, seemingly - have work to do to extinguish doubts as to whether they ought to be retained.

After all, several other drivers currently languishing on the sidelines, including Vitaly Petrov, Heikki Kovalainen and even Rubens Barrichello, have all been linked to returns to various teams. Arguably, the pressure has never been higher for a driver to convince merely that they deserve to be on the F1 grid at all.

Qualifying Predictions
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Rosberg, 4. Grosjean, 5.Alonso, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Massa, 8. Button, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez

Race Predictions
1. Vettel. 2. Alonso, 3. Hamilton, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Grosjean, 6. Webber, 7. Massa, 8. Hulkenberg, 9. Ricciardo. 10. Perez

Not only am I going to be dull and predict a Vettel victory, but I am going to be extra-dull and predict the same race result we've seen for the past three race weekends, with Alonso following the Red Bull man home. Hamilton meanwhile will find himself battling Raikkonen for the final podium position, narrowly beating the Finn to the post.

Grosjean will register a solid finish in fifth, with Webber making his way up from the midfield to sixth ahead of Massa. The ever-impressive Hulkenberg will snatch eighth position for Sauber, while Daniel Ricciardo and Sergio Perez will round out the points-scorers. Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg are my nominees this weekend to encounter some misfortune.

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