29 July 2014

MotoGP Mid-season Rider Ratings

With nine races down and nine still to go in this year's MotoGP season, it's time to take stock and grade each of the riders on the grid for their performances so far. There are no prizes for guessing who has earned the best rating, but further down the order it's been a mixed bag. Read on for my verdicts:

Marc Marquez (E, Repsol Honda) - 1st in Championship, 9 wins, 7 poles, 225pts          
Rating: A+

What more is there to say about this Spanish sensation that hasn't already been said? Other riders have achieved similar dominance in the sport's history - John Surtees, Mike Hailwood, Giacomo Agostini, Mick Doohan and Valentino Rossi, to name a few - but none of them have done so in the face of such stiff opposition as that encountered by Marquez.

Two-time champion Jorge Lorenzo, Repsol Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa and a resurgent Rossi have all been made to look average this season by the 21-year-old, whose ability to carve his way through the field when out of position and to defend from the sternest of attacks has been utterly peerless this year.

With nine successive wins now under his belt, the only remaining question mark surrounding Marquez's season is just how long he can keep up this incredible streak; that bookmakers are offering odds as low as 9/2 for him to win each of the remaining races tells you all you need to know about the magnitude of his talent.

Dani Pedrosa (E, Repsol Honda) - 2nd in Championship, 7 podiums, 1 pole, 148pts                      
Rating: B+

With Marquez running rampant in the other side of the Repsol Honda garage, it's impossible not to feel some pity for Pedrosa. Arguably, the 28-year-old has missed his best chances of shaking off the tag of being the greatest rider in MotoGP history without a premier-class title to his name - especially now he has committed himself to Honda for a further two seasons alongside Marquez.

That said, there has been some cause for optimism in recent races: after two particularly subdued outings at Le Mans and Mugello, Catalunya saw Pedrosa only narrowly lose out to Marquez in a close duel for supremacy, whilst Dani kept his younger teammate honest at the Sachsenring despite never getting quite close enough to mount a veritable challenge.

The title is of course now out of the question, but if Pedrosa can continue to make life as hard for Marquez as he has managed to in recent rounds, the chances are that he'll be able to best the reigning champion on at least one occasion before the year is out. Doing so will be vital to rebuilding the confidence needed to mount a renewed title assault next year.

Jorge Lorenzo (Movistar Yamaha) - 5th in Championship, 3 podiums, 97pts
Rating: B-

Having lost out to Marquez in last year's title race by such a narrow margin, it seemed that 2014 could well have proved to be the second chapter in a compelling rivalry between he and Lorenzo for supremacy. But, some crucial errors combined with a failure to adapt to the new generation of Bridgestone tyres has left Lorenzo lagging badly behind his main rivals in the points standings.

An early fall from the lead at Qatar and a jump start at Austin marked a downright dreadful start to the year for the Mallorcan, though the nadir of his year was unquestionably his tentative ride to 13th in the wet at Assen, the scene of his collarbone-breaking incident last year.

That said, Lorenzo's nail-biting dice with Marquez at Mugello served as a timely reminder of just what the two-time champion is capable of when he's fully in sync with his bike, whilst his third place last time out in Germany ahead of teammate Rossi will come as a much-needed confidence booster heading into the latter half of the year. He'll certainly need to build some momentum heading into 2015 if he is to have any chance of halting the Marquez juggernaut.

Valentino Rossi (I, Movistar Yamaha) - 3rd in Championship, 5 podiums, 141pts              
Rating: A

Coming into the season, aged 35 and having made the unpopular decision of jettisoning long-time crew chief Jerry Burgess at the end of 2013, Rossi was in last-chance saloon. His contract was up for renewal at the end of the year, the Italian giving himself just six races to decide whether or not to call it a day at the end of the year.

But, if the story of 2014 so far has been Marquez's domination, then Rossi's rejuvenation has to rank as the main subplot. Losing out to the Spaniard by the narrowest margins at Qatar set the tone, the Yamaha rider backing this result up with further second places at Jerez, Le Mans and Catalunya, as well as a spirited recovery to fifth at Assen from a pit-lane start in the sort of conditions in which 'The Doctor' so often revels.

Indeed, Rossi has more often than not had the measure of his teammate Lorenzo, his reward being a contract extension that will see him remain in the sport for a further two years - which is excellent news for all MotoGP fans. You'd be brave to bet against the seven-time champion adding to his already incredible haul of 80 premier class victories in that time.

Andrea Dovizioso (I, Ducati Team) - 4th in Championship, 2 podiums, 99pts
Rating: A

Transcending the limits of your bike is always the mark of a great rider, and that's precisely what Dovizioso has done so far this season in his second year aboard the recalcitrant Ducati. And while it's unfortunate that the talented 28-year-old doesn't have a faster bike with which to ply his trade, at least the Italian manufacturer, now under the stewardship of Gigi Dall'Igna, looks to be making tangible progress.

After a year devoid of podium finishes in 2013, Dovizioso has already made two visits to the rostrum this season, finishing a strong third at Austin behind the two Repsol Honda riders before making a return visit in Assen in the wet - always an ideal opportunity to show what you're truly made of. In between, the Italian has maximised his points-scoring opportunities at just about every race to lie fourth in the standings heading into the summer break.

Having been fairly evenly matched with teammate Nicky Hayden last year, Dovizioso has firmly stamped his authority on new arrival Cal Crutchlow, with whom he was paired at Tech 3 in 2012. The benefit of a year's experience of the Ducati modus operandi has helped, but then so has the fact that 'Dovi' is riding as well as any previous stage in his career right now - or indeed as well as anyone else on the grid bar Marquez.

Cal Crutchlow (GB, Ducati Team) - 14th in Championship, 28pts
Rating: C-

History shows that, unless your name is Casey Stoner, your first season with Ducati tends to be a fairly bruising experience. And, in Crutchlow's case, such has been the case quite literally, the popular Coventry rider having had to miss the third round of the year in Argentina after injuring his hand in a crash during the previous race in Austin.

The year started well enough with a solid ride to sixth place at Qatar (albeit a full 16 seconds shy of teammate Dovizioso) on an evening when many of his rivals contrived to throw their bikes into the scenery, but thereafter Crutchlow has garnered a rather meagre 18 points - thanks partially to unreliability at Jerez and Catalunya, but also to his alleged struggles to adapt to the riding position of his Ducati mount.

Such has been the degree of the Brit's struggles that he's been eclipsed not only by Dovizioso but also by Pramac rider Andrea Iannone, who would surely have been promoted to the factory team if not for the fact that Crutchlow is contracted to remain at Ducati for one more year. Let's hope, then, as has been the case for Dovizioso, Cal's second season with the Bologna marque is a far happier one.

Stefan Bradl (D, LCR Honda) - 9th in Championship, 56pts
Rating: B-

Now in his third season at MotoGP level, it seems Bradl is in danger of being eclipsed by a new generation of young riders. After an explosive start to the season at Qatar, where the LCR Honda man led before undoing all his hard work with a crash at one-third distance, Bradl has struggled to be a regular fixture at the very sharp end of the grid.

He finished a strong fourth at Austin, and banked top-five finishes at Argentina and Catalunya, but has been anonymous elsewhere. He of course led the opening laps of his home race at the Sachsenring as every other factory rider opted for a pit-lane start, but was on a hiding to nothing with a bike set up for the wet on a rapidly drying track, plummeting down the order before eventually trailing home 16th.

It was a shame the gamble squandered his first front-row grid slot since Austin, especially at a time when his future hangs in the balance. Team boss Lucio Cecchinello is said to be keen on retaining Bradl, but rumour has it that HRC wants Moto3 points leader Jack Miller to take over the seat. Whether or not LCR is able to expand to a two-bike line-up is therefore likely to be key to the former Moto2 champion's fate.

Alvaro Bautista (E, Gresini Honda) - 10th in Championship, 1 podium, 50pts
Rating: C+

You could say that Bautista's season has been fairly similar to that of his fellow satellite Honda rider Bradl, only with higher peaks and deeper troughs. Where the German's best result of the year thus far has been fourth place, Bautista was able to clinch an impressive third place at Le Mans; equally, while Bradl has made just one trip to the gravel that could be described as his fault, the Spaniard has had three.

That's an unacceptable number of points squandered for a rider of Bautista's experience, and rather a surprise after a remarkably consistent latter half of 2013. There have been times when he's had the clear measure of Bradl, notably at Jerez and Le Mans, but direct comparisons between the pair are misleading given that the Gresini man is the sole factory rider in the field using Showa suspension and Nissin brakes.

It seems all but certain Bautista will have to make way for Open class teammate Scott Redding next season, which means that the 29-year-old will be relying on Aprilia to push forward their planned MotoGP return by one year if he's to remain aboard factory machinery. Otherwise, there could be an opening at Aspar, which may not be a bad place to be next year ahead of standard ECUs being introduced across the board in 2016.

Bradley Smith (GB, Tech 3 Yamaha) - 11th in Championship, 48pts
Rating: C

"I have to give them no option," Smith said coming into the season, referring to his mission to secure a factory seat in 2015. But, such has been the mediocrity of his sophomore campaign so far, it appears he is giving his current Tech 3 squad little option but to leave the young Oxfordshire rider in search of alternative employment next year.

It all started so promisingly for Smith at Qatar, taking his best-ever grid slot with third place and sticking with the lead bunch until a late fall cost him the chance of a top-five finish. He redeemed himself with a feisty ride to fifth at Austin, but has failed to crack the top half-dozen since, having been soundly outpaced by rookie teammate Pol Espargaro at just about every race since his team's home round at Le Mans.

Consistency was perhaps Smith's biggest virtue last season, but even that seems to have deserted the 23-year-old, who has crashed three times in nine races in his desperation to impress the factory teams. Now the most coveted rides look to be locked down for another two seasons, Smith can shift his focus to convincing Tech 3 to keep him for a third season, though he'll need to up his game considerably to do so.

Pol Espargaro (E, Tech 3 Yamaha) - 7th in Championship, 67pts
Rating: B

Of all the riders in MotoGP currently, Espargaro is arguably under the most under pressure of all. Why? Because, with Rossi in the twilight of his career and Lorenzo struggling to recapture his best form, Yamaha need an answer to the phenomenon that is Marquez, and the reigning Moto2 champion may well prove to be the best response they have in the medium-term.

Bearing that in mind, it's perhaps understandable that the first few rounds for the younger of the two Espargaro brothers were somewhat low-key, but glimpses of his future potential have started to show. The turning point was at Le Mans, where, after qualifying second, he was tantalisingly close to his maiden podium finish before being pipped at the last by Bautista - on a day where teammate Smith struggled home to 10th.

Since then, it's not been much of a contest between the Tech 3 riders, with Espargaro seemingly first in line for a promotion to the works Yamaha squad when Lorenzo departs. That's highly unlikely to happen next year, with all the other factory seats ostensibly decided (bar Aprilia, who may or may not be present), but seeing Pol take the fight to Marquez on a works bike in 2016 is far from beyond the realms of possibility.

Andrea Iannone (I, Pramac Ducati) - 8th in Championship, 62pts
Rating: A-

After a fairly quiet debut season aboard the Pramac Ducati last year, Iannone has started to come of age as a MotoGP rider in 2014, establishing himself as one of the brightest future prospects in the series with a series of eye-catching rides. The first of these came at the second round in Austin, where he incredibly ran third, ahead of Dovizioso's factory-spec machine, for around two thirds of the race.

But his best performance of all was on home soil at Mugello. Having qualified an outstanding second, less than two tenths adrift of pole-sitter Marquez, he led briefly and ran inside the top five for the majority of the race before slumping to seventh in the closing laps. There have been one or two blots on his copybook, such as his clash with Nicky Hayden at Le Mans, but that's to be expected for a rider of his level of experience.

Iannone had been angling for a promotion to the full works squad, which seemed inevitable before Ducati announced it would be retaining its existing line-up. Rather than take the risk of signing with series returnees Suzuki, the 24-year-old will now remain at Pramac next year, albeit with the same specification bike as the factory boys - don't be surprised if the rider they call 'Crazy Joe' proves quicker than either in 2015.

Aleix Espargaro (E, Forward Racing) - 6th in Championship, 1 pole, 77pts
Rating: A

If Espargaro's decision to spurn Aspar in favour of Forward Racing ahead of this season was regarded as something of a risk by the MotoGP fraternity, it's one that has certainly paid dividends for the rider who has consistently proven the outstanding rider of the Open (née CRT) class since its inception in 2012.

This year's Forward machine may amount to little more than a two-year-old Yamaha M1 with standard electronics, but Espargaro has made considerably better use of such machinery than his struggling teammate Colin Edwards, having been the first Open class rider across the line at every race bar Argentina. An outright pole position achieved in the wet of Assen served to further underline the 24-year-old's sheer class.

Such heroics make one wonder what Espargaro might be capable of with a more competitive bike at his disposal. There was talk of Aleix heading to Tech 3 to join brother Pol, but it now appears that the elder of the Espargaro brothers is Suzuki-bound for 2015. Having done more than enough to deserve a shot on a winning bike, he'll be hoping the Japanese manufacturer can supply exactly that in the next couple of seasons.

The Rest:

The lack of the Honda RCV1000R's competitiveness this season will have come as a disappointment to Scott Redding (B+), but the Gresini rider has been the first of the Open Honda quartet home on four of a possible nine occasions despite his class rookie status - with a promotion to the factory machine next season in place of Bautista looking very likely.

The Gloucestershire rider's main opposition has come in the form of Aspar's Nicky Hayden (B), who has struggled somewhat with wrist pain since his crash at Le Mans; fingers crossed that the surgery the 2006 champion recently underwent will allow him to return to peak form in time for his next home race at Indianapolis.

Hiroshi Aoyama (C), aboard the second Aspar bike, has only beat his teammate twice when they've both finished and needs to be doing more in order to be sure of retaining his seat, while Karel Abraham (C) has largely been similarly unspectacular aboard the Cardion Honda - although his ride is decidedly more secure.

Yonny Hernandez (B-) seems to have tamed his wild streak of 2013 somewhat, having finished every race, but as the sole Open class Ducati representative it is very difficult to pass accurate judgement on the Colombian, who is hoping to be given the latest-spec machinery by the Italian manufacturer next season.

The same cannot be said for the elder statesman of the grid, Colin Edwards (D-), who has scored just eight points all year while his Forward Racing teammate Aleix Espargaro has regularly mixed it with the factory bikes - it's a crying shame that the popular Texan's career is set to come to a close in such ignominious fashion.

Hector Barbera (B) has done well to squeeze two points out of a hopelessly uncompetitive Avintia-Kawasaki, and will be hoping that the team's switch to Open class Ducati machinery heralds a rise up the pecking order next year. The Spaniard has easily had the measure of teammate and class rookie Mike Di Meglio (C-). 

Ioda Racing's Danilo Petrucci (B-) has performed admirably in spite of missing four races due to wrist injury, while Broc Parkes (C) earns a superior grade to teammate Michael Laverty (C-) solely for the best underdog ride of the year yet which yielded an 11th place at Assen aboard the unfancied PBM machine.

10 July 2014

The 2014 Silly Season Gets Underway

Speculation over which drivers are heading where for the following season seems to begin earlier and earlier each year in Formula One, and this year's silly season now appears to have kicked off in earnest following comments from McLaren boss Ron Dennis in the run-up to last weekend's British Grand Prix that Jenson Button needs to "try harder".

The Briton responded to this jibe in the best possible way at Silverstone, taking his best result since the season opener at Melbourne and coming within a second of breaking his podium duck at his home circuit, but it appears to be accepted wisdom that McLaren have been knocking on the door of potential replacements for Button in the form of both Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton.





While it would take a peculiar set of circumstances indeed to compel the latter to re-join the very team he spurned at the end of 2014 to join the now-dominant Mercedes outfit, a return to McLaren for Alonso is a somewhat more viable prospect, albeit not the near-certainty it seemed six months ago prior to Dennis' return to prominence at Woking.

Prior to his dismissal as McLaren team principal, Martin Whitmarsh is understood to have been angling for Alonso to return, travelling to Madrid late last year in a bid to arrange a pre-agreement of sorts with the Spaniard - who himself told the media last year that any lingering resentments towards the team over his tempestuous 2007 season were because of "one man", in whose absence he would have no problem returning.

The man to which Alonso was referring is of course Dennis, but if the two-time champion was to arrive at the conclusion that McLaren and Honda are more likely to provide him with a title-winning car than Ferrari, any personal disagreements would surely be cast aside; equally, it's difficult to see Dennis taking issue to welcoming back to his team the man that many still rate as the very best on the grid.

With Alonso staring down the barrel of his first win-free season since he joined Ferrari, the possibility of jumping ship at the end of the year must surely have crossed his mind on more than one occasion - but with Mercedes and Red Bull all but certain to retain their existing driver line-ups, returning to McLaren is the only other viable option besides staying put at the Scuderia.




But, it's a risky choice: Honda's past success is by no means a guarantee that the Japanese firm's 2015 engine will be of similar quality to their offerings of the late 1980s, while McLaren, despite the vast resources at their disposal, as of late seem to have forgotten how to produce a chassis worthy of contending for the title.

It may thus be a case of better the devil you know for Alonso, who would be well-advised to give Ferrari, now under the stewardship of Marco Mattiacci, one final chance to deliver the goods next season whilst simultaneously keeping a close eye on the progress of the renewed McLaren-Honda alliance as well investigating the possibilities of any vacancies arising at either Mercedes or Red Bull.

Such a scenario gives Button one final chance to end his career on a high note after two seasons saddled with substandard machinery. Coming into this season, it seemed conceivable that this season may have proven the last in the sport for the 34-year-old, but the way he has responded to the challenge of fending off young Kevin Magnussen in the other side of the garage has been admirable.

But, if the second most senior driver on the grid looks to have done enough to prolong his career, things look a great deal less certain for the elder statesman. Kimi Raikkonen has endured an utterly torrid season, having been out-qualified 7-2 by teammate Alonso so far this year and having finished no higher than seventh place. The Finn languishes down in 12th in the drivers' standings on 19 points, versus 87 for the Spaniard.




On only two occasions this year has Raikkonen appeared even vaguely like the driver who won Ferrari's last drivers' title back in 2007 - at Spain, where he out-qualified Alonso and kept the home favourite at bay until the dying stages of the race, and at Monaco, where a likely podium finish went begging after Max Chilton contrived to give him a puncture during a Safety Car period.

Clearly, this isn't what Ferrari had in mind when they selected Raikkonen to replace Felipe Massa, much less when they agreed to remunerate the Iceman to the tune of a reputed $14m per year. Raikkonen's return to Ferrari was supposed to serve as a reminder to Alonso that no one man is bigger than the team; if he can't regularly challenge the Spaniard, what purpose does his presence at the team serve?

Then there's the question of motivation. Only Kimi himself knows exactly how motivated he is at this late stage in his career, though the fact he has recently gone on record to say that he will probably retire from the sport at the end of his existing contract with Ferrari, which expires at the end of 2015, is hardly the sign of somebody desperate to add a second world title to his resumé.

So, is history destined to repeat itself? Will Raikkonen and Ferrari once again agree to part ways with a year still to run on their contract? The reason the Finn was forced out of the picture last time around in 2010 was because of Ferrari's eagerness to begin their partnership with Alonso, but there appears to be no equivalent on the scene this time around as long as Mercedes and Red Bull maintain their current line-ups.



The likes of Nico Hulkenberg and Romain Grosjean would be available; both are ready to step up to a top team and would probably push Alonso harder than an out-of-sorts Raikkonen. But the real question is whether Ferrari are sufficiently desperate to get a younger, hungrier driver in their second car to atone for the embarrassment of effectively announcing that they were wrong to re-sign Kimi in the first place.

Assuming Raikkonen wishes to continue for one more year, therefore, there is likely to be a place for him at Ferrari, all the more so because the team have a ready-made replacement in the form of Ferrari Academy member Jules Bianchi ready to fill the breach in 2016 - who could be stationed at a midfield outfit next year to serve the final year of his apprenticeship after two assured seasons at Marussia.

In the event Raikkonen does decide to hang up his helmet come November, Ferrari could decide to fast-track Bianchi to the seat alongside Alonso next year, which would have the benefit of providing continuity heading into 2016 should Fernando indeed opt to depart Maranello at that stage. Alternatively, the Scuderia could sign either Hulkenberg or Grosjean on a one-year deal before re-assessing their options for 2016.

Elsewhere, Williams and Force India are likely to retain their existing line-ups, although Bianchi, the team's third driver in 2012, would be the obvious option to fill the void at the latter team left by Hulkenberg were the German to be given the call-up by Ferrari. Bianchi could also end up at Lotus in place of compatriot Grosjean if the Franco-Swiss was selected to replace Raikkonen.




Grosjean has expressed his desire to step up to a regular race-winning outfit next year, but Ferrari isn't the only potential destination in that regard. Eric Boullier's appointment by McLaren at the start of the year sparked rumours that Grosjean could be destined for a drive at Woking in 2015, and such a move remains a possibility. But, of the team's existing drivers, it would probably be Magnussen who would have to make way.

That may seem harsh given that the young Dane has done a solid job in a less-than-competitive car this year, but having such an inexperienced driver on board has clearly hindered development of the recalcitrant MP4-29. Loaning Magnussen out to a rival outfit before bringing him back to the fold a couple of years down the line, when the team has returned to winning ways, is an option, much as Williams did with Button in spite of a strong debut season back in 2000.

Either way, it looks as if Grosjean's time at Lotus is coming to an end now that the Enstone outfit have announced a switch to Mercedes power for 2015, which is almost certain to herald the departure of fuel company Total, Grosjean's main backer. Should no vacancies emerge at either Ferrari or McLaren, Force India may be able to offer refuge to the 28-year-old.

Pastor Maldonado, meanwhile, seems certain to remain on board at Lotus as long as his PDVSA cash doesn't dry up - although the Venezuelan state oil concern, in this writer's opinion, should look carefully at the possibility of switching their backing to promising GP2 racer Johnny Cecotto Jr. in the wake of what has been an unacceptably scrappy first half of the season for Maldonado.

One driver set to make his F1 debut next season is Carlos Sainz Jr., championship leader in Formula Renault 3.5, who would replace Jean-Eric Vergne alongside Daniil Kvyat at Toro Rosso. The Russian now has to be regarded as odds-on favourite to ultimately step up to Red Bull ahead of Vergne, which leaves no place for the Frenchman at a team whose raison d'être is to prepare young talents for the senior squad; a third driver role at Red Bull for Vergne could beckon.



Things are looking more fluid over at the cash-strapped Sauber team. The Swiss outfit will be reluctant to drop Adrian Sutil after a single season, but key to the German's fate - along with the somewhat underwhelming Esteban Gutierrez - will be money. Ex-Caterham driver Giedo van der Garde, the team's third driver, could well make his race return next year at Hinwil on that basis, while Sergey Sirotkin and Simona de Silvestro are also options for the team, albeit much riskier ones.

It's a similar story at Marussia, where there is set to be at least one seat up for grabs as Bianchi moves up the pecking order. Chilton could yet remain for a third season depending on the state of his finances, with last year's GP2 champion Fabio Leimer a prime contender to join the Banbury outfit. Jolyon Palmer, who currently leads the points in the official feeder series, could also be in contention if the requisite money can be found.

It's unclear whether Caterham will be on the grid next year, let alone who will be driving for the team recently sold by a disillusioned Tony Fernandes. Colin Kolles' involvement in the beleaguered squad's sale to a group of Arab investors has also raised questions of whether the squad will be merged with the Romanian-backed Forza Rossa outfit, which has been granted an entry by the FIA for 2015.

Assuming there is an 11th team, Marcus Ericsson is likely to stick around, although he could take his cash to Marussia if the Leafield-based team don't resurface next year. On the other hand, Kamui Kobayashi surely doesn't have the money to remain on board for a second year and would probably be replaced by a well-funded GP2 racer; Julian Leal and Rio Haryanto have driven for the team in testing, while Nathanael Berthon has recently been announced as a junior driver for the squad.