10 July 2014

The 2014 Silly Season Gets Underway

Speculation over which drivers are heading where for the following season seems to begin earlier and earlier each year in Formula One, and this year's silly season now appears to have kicked off in earnest following comments from McLaren boss Ron Dennis in the run-up to last weekend's British Grand Prix that Jenson Button needs to "try harder".

The Briton responded to this jibe in the best possible way at Silverstone, taking his best result since the season opener at Melbourne and coming within a second of breaking his podium duck at his home circuit, but it appears to be accepted wisdom that McLaren have been knocking on the door of potential replacements for Button in the form of both Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton.





While it would take a peculiar set of circumstances indeed to compel the latter to re-join the very team he spurned at the end of 2014 to join the now-dominant Mercedes outfit, a return to McLaren for Alonso is a somewhat more viable prospect, albeit not the near-certainty it seemed six months ago prior to Dennis' return to prominence at Woking.

Prior to his dismissal as McLaren team principal, Martin Whitmarsh is understood to have been angling for Alonso to return, travelling to Madrid late last year in a bid to arrange a pre-agreement of sorts with the Spaniard - who himself told the media last year that any lingering resentments towards the team over his tempestuous 2007 season were because of "one man", in whose absence he would have no problem returning.

The man to which Alonso was referring is of course Dennis, but if the two-time champion was to arrive at the conclusion that McLaren and Honda are more likely to provide him with a title-winning car than Ferrari, any personal disagreements would surely be cast aside; equally, it's difficult to see Dennis taking issue to welcoming back to his team the man that many still rate as the very best on the grid.

With Alonso staring down the barrel of his first win-free season since he joined Ferrari, the possibility of jumping ship at the end of the year must surely have crossed his mind on more than one occasion - but with Mercedes and Red Bull all but certain to retain their existing driver line-ups, returning to McLaren is the only other viable option besides staying put at the Scuderia.




But, it's a risky choice: Honda's past success is by no means a guarantee that the Japanese firm's 2015 engine will be of similar quality to their offerings of the late 1980s, while McLaren, despite the vast resources at their disposal, as of late seem to have forgotten how to produce a chassis worthy of contending for the title.

It may thus be a case of better the devil you know for Alonso, who would be well-advised to give Ferrari, now under the stewardship of Marco Mattiacci, one final chance to deliver the goods next season whilst simultaneously keeping a close eye on the progress of the renewed McLaren-Honda alliance as well investigating the possibilities of any vacancies arising at either Mercedes or Red Bull.

Such a scenario gives Button one final chance to end his career on a high note after two seasons saddled with substandard machinery. Coming into this season, it seemed conceivable that this season may have proven the last in the sport for the 34-year-old, but the way he has responded to the challenge of fending off young Kevin Magnussen in the other side of the garage has been admirable.

But, if the second most senior driver on the grid looks to have done enough to prolong his career, things look a great deal less certain for the elder statesman. Kimi Raikkonen has endured an utterly torrid season, having been out-qualified 7-2 by teammate Alonso so far this year and having finished no higher than seventh place. The Finn languishes down in 12th in the drivers' standings on 19 points, versus 87 for the Spaniard.




On only two occasions this year has Raikkonen appeared even vaguely like the driver who won Ferrari's last drivers' title back in 2007 - at Spain, where he out-qualified Alonso and kept the home favourite at bay until the dying stages of the race, and at Monaco, where a likely podium finish went begging after Max Chilton contrived to give him a puncture during a Safety Car period.

Clearly, this isn't what Ferrari had in mind when they selected Raikkonen to replace Felipe Massa, much less when they agreed to remunerate the Iceman to the tune of a reputed $14m per year. Raikkonen's return to Ferrari was supposed to serve as a reminder to Alonso that no one man is bigger than the team; if he can't regularly challenge the Spaniard, what purpose does his presence at the team serve?

Then there's the question of motivation. Only Kimi himself knows exactly how motivated he is at this late stage in his career, though the fact he has recently gone on record to say that he will probably retire from the sport at the end of his existing contract with Ferrari, which expires at the end of 2015, is hardly the sign of somebody desperate to add a second world title to his resumé.

So, is history destined to repeat itself? Will Raikkonen and Ferrari once again agree to part ways with a year still to run on their contract? The reason the Finn was forced out of the picture last time around in 2010 was because of Ferrari's eagerness to begin their partnership with Alonso, but there appears to be no equivalent on the scene this time around as long as Mercedes and Red Bull maintain their current line-ups.



The likes of Nico Hulkenberg and Romain Grosjean would be available; both are ready to step up to a top team and would probably push Alonso harder than an out-of-sorts Raikkonen. But the real question is whether Ferrari are sufficiently desperate to get a younger, hungrier driver in their second car to atone for the embarrassment of effectively announcing that they were wrong to re-sign Kimi in the first place.

Assuming Raikkonen wishes to continue for one more year, therefore, there is likely to be a place for him at Ferrari, all the more so because the team have a ready-made replacement in the form of Ferrari Academy member Jules Bianchi ready to fill the breach in 2016 - who could be stationed at a midfield outfit next year to serve the final year of his apprenticeship after two assured seasons at Marussia.

In the event Raikkonen does decide to hang up his helmet come November, Ferrari could decide to fast-track Bianchi to the seat alongside Alonso next year, which would have the benefit of providing continuity heading into 2016 should Fernando indeed opt to depart Maranello at that stage. Alternatively, the Scuderia could sign either Hulkenberg or Grosjean on a one-year deal before re-assessing their options for 2016.

Elsewhere, Williams and Force India are likely to retain their existing line-ups, although Bianchi, the team's third driver in 2012, would be the obvious option to fill the void at the latter team left by Hulkenberg were the German to be given the call-up by Ferrari. Bianchi could also end up at Lotus in place of compatriot Grosjean if the Franco-Swiss was selected to replace Raikkonen.




Grosjean has expressed his desire to step up to a regular race-winning outfit next year, but Ferrari isn't the only potential destination in that regard. Eric Boullier's appointment by McLaren at the start of the year sparked rumours that Grosjean could be destined for a drive at Woking in 2015, and such a move remains a possibility. But, of the team's existing drivers, it would probably be Magnussen who would have to make way.

That may seem harsh given that the young Dane has done a solid job in a less-than-competitive car this year, but having such an inexperienced driver on board has clearly hindered development of the recalcitrant MP4-29. Loaning Magnussen out to a rival outfit before bringing him back to the fold a couple of years down the line, when the team has returned to winning ways, is an option, much as Williams did with Button in spite of a strong debut season back in 2000.

Either way, it looks as if Grosjean's time at Lotus is coming to an end now that the Enstone outfit have announced a switch to Mercedes power for 2015, which is almost certain to herald the departure of fuel company Total, Grosjean's main backer. Should no vacancies emerge at either Ferrari or McLaren, Force India may be able to offer refuge to the 28-year-old.

Pastor Maldonado, meanwhile, seems certain to remain on board at Lotus as long as his PDVSA cash doesn't dry up - although the Venezuelan state oil concern, in this writer's opinion, should look carefully at the possibility of switching their backing to promising GP2 racer Johnny Cecotto Jr. in the wake of what has been an unacceptably scrappy first half of the season for Maldonado.

One driver set to make his F1 debut next season is Carlos Sainz Jr., championship leader in Formula Renault 3.5, who would replace Jean-Eric Vergne alongside Daniil Kvyat at Toro Rosso. The Russian now has to be regarded as odds-on favourite to ultimately step up to Red Bull ahead of Vergne, which leaves no place for the Frenchman at a team whose raison d'ĂȘtre is to prepare young talents for the senior squad; a third driver role at Red Bull for Vergne could beckon.



Things are looking more fluid over at the cash-strapped Sauber team. The Swiss outfit will be reluctant to drop Adrian Sutil after a single season, but key to the German's fate - along with the somewhat underwhelming Esteban Gutierrez - will be money. Ex-Caterham driver Giedo van der Garde, the team's third driver, could well make his race return next year at Hinwil on that basis, while Sergey Sirotkin and Simona de Silvestro are also options for the team, albeit much riskier ones.

It's a similar story at Marussia, where there is set to be at least one seat up for grabs as Bianchi moves up the pecking order. Chilton could yet remain for a third season depending on the state of his finances, with last year's GP2 champion Fabio Leimer a prime contender to join the Banbury outfit. Jolyon Palmer, who currently leads the points in the official feeder series, could also be in contention if the requisite money can be found.

It's unclear whether Caterham will be on the grid next year, let alone who will be driving for the team recently sold by a disillusioned Tony Fernandes. Colin Kolles' involvement in the beleaguered squad's sale to a group of Arab investors has also raised questions of whether the squad will be merged with the Romanian-backed Forza Rossa outfit, which has been granted an entry by the FIA for 2015.

Assuming there is an 11th team, Marcus Ericsson is likely to stick around, although he could take his cash to Marussia if the Leafield-based team don't resurface next year. On the other hand, Kamui Kobayashi surely doesn't have the money to remain on board for a second year and would probably be replaced by a well-funded GP2 racer; Julian Leal and Rio Haryanto have driven for the team in testing, while Nathanael Berthon has recently been announced as a junior driver for the squad.

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