If I were to sum up the 2013 Formula One season in one word, it would probably be "disappointing". Off the back of 2012, most fans were expecting another ultra-close contest, but, in the event, however, nobody could truly compete with the irresistible combination of Sebastian Vettel and the Adrian Newey-designed Red Bull RB9.
It took until Pirelli's mid-season revision of its tyres, prompted by the spectacular series of tyre failures that threatened to reduce the British Grand Prix to a level of farce comparable to the 2005 United States Grand Prix, before the Red Bull could truly stretch its legs. The fact the tyres were made more durable allowed Vettel to fully express the superiority of the package beneath him which had previously been disguised to a degree by the rapid tyre degradation that characterised many of the early races.
The key to Red Bull's success was their relentless rate of development. Every modification they brought to the track made a tangible difference to their car's pace, whilst certain other teams - notably Ferrari - struggled to consistently make forward steps. The Italian team's technical director Pat Fry admitted that the title began to slip from Fernando Alonso's grasp around the time of the Canadian Grand Prix, when a major update package failed to deliver the expected progress.
The tyre changes didn't help either, rendering moot the Ferrari's best characteristic, its tendency to preserve its rubber during the race. But, even by the time the revised tyres were introduced in earnest in Hungary, Alonso was already all but out of the running for the title. The fact he still managed to finish a clear second in the championship despite having only the fourth best car by season's end is testament to the Spaniard's uncanny ability to maximise his (often limited) scoring opportunities at virtually every race.
The debate as to whether Vettel or Alonso is the better driver rages on, the 2013 season doing little to provide a conclusive judgement one way or the other. Whilst I rated the former as the best driver of the season in my recent top 10, that largely boils down to his ostensibly unrivaled ability to adapt his driving technique to the rigours of the Coanda-assisted cars. Put the pair in a midfield car, and I would expect Alonso to perhaps squeeze out a couple more points than Vettel over the course of a season.
The contention that Vettel must prove himself with a team other than Red Bull in order to cement his place among the greats is nonetheless a somewhat churlish one. After all, Ayrton Senna's failure to win titles for any team besides McLaren is not counted against him, whilst had Michael Schumacher won all seven of his titles at Ferrari, it's doubtful, looking back, fans would think any the less of him for it. Jim Clark, meanwhile, never even drove for any team besides Lotus, let alone win titles for a rival outfit.
That said, sooner or later, Vettel will have to accept not having the best car in the field at his disposal - perhaps as soon as next year if the widespread prediction that Mercedes have produced the best power-train proves correct. But, chances are, should Red Bull experience a fall from grace, it won't take long for Vettel to re-align himself with whichever team are setting the standard. Schumacher's record of seven titles, it must be said, looks vulnerable at this stage.
The realisation that Vettel won't be around forever is what informed Red Bull's decision to recruit Daniel Ricciardo as Mark Webber's replacement off the back of an assured second season at Toro Rosso. Whilst the wide-smiling Aussie is hardly likely to deprive his new teammate of much sleep next season, he has the chance to establish himself as the team's main hope if and when Vettel decides the time is right to forsake the organisation that has helped him to so much success.
When that day arrives, my money would be firmly on Daniil Kvyat, who will be making his F1 debut in place of Ricciardo at Toro Rosso next season, making the step up to the senior Red Bull team. Whilst the young Russian could probably have used a season of Friday test sessions, his rate of improvement in GP3 - of which he was the undisputed king for the final three race weekends - suggests he should be able to find his feet at the highest level quickly. Jean-Eric Vergne best have his wits about him next season.
In a year of disappointments, Mercedes' performance this season was one of the few positive surprises. Vaulting from fifth in the constructors' standings in 2012 to second this year, the W04 was the only car over a single lap that could hold a candle to the Red Bull. Though it almost invariably chewed its tyres during the races, three race wins and eight pole positions is a level of achievement few would have foreseen the Silver Arrows reaching before the start of the year after three largely average seasons beforehand.
Indeed, for what was supposed to be an interim season, Lewis Hamilton must be delighted with his decision to jump ship from McLaren this year, especially after the extent of his former team's troubles became clear. Nico Rosberg also gave his teammate a harder time than many had anticipated, to the extent that many are now tipping the German as next year's title favourite ahead of Hamilton. Whether he can live up to this new-found level of expectation remains to be seen, however.
As for McLaren, nothing could have prepared them for the catastrophe they endured in 2013, the first season during which the Woking-based team failed to secure a podium since 1980. That was the final year of the ancien regime led by Teddy Mayer at McLaren before Ron Dennis took over at the behest of sponsors Marlboro, and there have been reports lately that Dennis could be looking to make a comeback as team principal in the wake of their dreadful performances this year.
Martin Whitmarsh meanwhile has made a bold decision indeed by signing young Danish talent Kevin Magnussen, who will be making his F1 bow next year alongside Jenson Button. The decision to drop Sergio Perez after a single, solid - if not spectacular - season was undeniably harsh, but it indicates no shortage of faith in Magnussen's talent, McLaren being unable to find the young Dane a suitable apprenticeship further down the grid. Perhaps, though, it was Button who should have made way.
This may seem an odd contention, but bear with me. 2014 will be an interim season for McLaren before they join forces once more with Honda the following year, and Whitmarsh has made little secret of his desire to lure Alonso into the fold in 2015 - even going so far as to travelling to the opening of the Spaniard's personal museum in Madrid a few weeks ago. Assuming such a move comes off, next year could have acted as a shootout between two, hungry young guns to partner Alonso at the dawn of McLaren's new era.
Instead, Button doesn't just have to prove himself against Magnussen, he has to prove to McLaren that he can still spearhead future title assaults - but the fact that Whitmarsh is so hungry to have Alonso on board suggests that the 33-year-old has a lot of work ahead to prove that is the case. What's more, if Magnussen comes out of the blocks and beats his teammate in year one, it would be fair to assume that would bring down the curtain on the Brit's long and distinguished F1 career.
Whilst things look as if they can only get better for McLaren, Lotus is one team who could be set for something of a slump when you consider their precarious financial situation. The long-running saga of the elusive investment deal from Quantum Motorsports ultimately failed to come to fruition, leaving the team little choice other than to accept the millions on offer from Pastor Maldonado and his native Venezuela's state oil concern PDVSA to fill the cockpit vacated by the Ferrari-bound Kimi Raikkonen.
2013 proved the "Iceman" can still compete with the best of them when the car beneath him is working well and he is fully committed to the cause, but, as was the case during his Ferrari days, his performances wane at an alarming rate if the above criteria are not satisfied. This was the case after the summer break, as the Lotus dropped further behind the Red Bull and speculation over Raikkonen's future intensified. Missing the final two races was arguably nothing short of expected given the circumstances.
Raikkonen's tendency to go off the boil was what allowed Romain Grosjean to build his confidence and assert himself as Vettel's most consistent rival in the latter half of the year. The Frenchman was unlucky to miss out on a maiden win at Germany, but that first trip to the top step of the podium will come in due course. Whether it's with Lotus is another matter; perhaps Grosjean will need to one day leave the comfortable surroundings of Enstone in order to fully thrive as a Grand Prix driver.
The question is now whether Lotus can do to Maldonado what they did with Grosjean - turn a fast driver with a propensity to make frequent errors into a consistently convincing performer. That win at Catalunya last year offered a glimpse into what the erratic Venezuelan can do when everything's going his way, but a final season with Williams marked by over-driving and petulance suggests Maldonado may struggle if Lotus do indeed take a backwards step.
Considering the two teams behind them in this year's constructors' battle, McLaren and Force India, will be using the seemingly favoured Mercedes engine next year, as well as the fact that Lotus have effectively had to almost bankrupt themselves in order to be a front-running outfit for the past two seasons, it's more than possible that the black-and-gold cars could frequently be mired in the midfield ruck next season - hardly conditions in which Maldonado is likely to thrive.
While the consensus in the paddock was that Nico Hulkenberg deserved the vacant seat at Lotus, it could be that Force India transpires to be the better bet in 2014 thanks to its Mercedes powerplant; based on his sparkling form in the Sauber this season, early season podiums for the lanky German next year are a distinct possibility. Having been turned down by Ferrari this year, one would expect Hulkenberg to be in pole position to slot into any vacancy that may have arisen at Maranello this time next year.
Similarly, landing a Force India seat is about the best outcome Perez may have hoped for once it became clear that McLaren would be dispensing of his services, but beating Hulkenberg over the course of a season will be extremely tough. That is precisely what the Mexican will have to do if he harbours ambitions of returning to a top-line drive, however, whilst competition from the likes of Valtteri Bottas and Jules Bianchi for such seats in the coming seasons will be stern.
At the end of 1997, predictions that McLaren would start the following year, which saw a whole raft of technical rule changes, as the pace-setters proved bang on the money, whilst the dominant force of the past few seasons, Williams, suffered a nose-dive in form. It doesn't require too much imagination to foresee a similar scenario unfolding next year, with Mercedes coming out of the traps fastest and Red Bull being demoted a couple of positions in the competitive pecking order.
In fact, the first half of next year could well see the performances of the teams fluctuating wildly as they learn how to get the best from their all-new packages at differing rates, whilst unreliability is likely to prove a decisive factor early in the season. This unpredictability is precisely what F1 needs after an exceptionally dull second half of last year, when viewers knew well in advance that, barring catastrophe, they would be hearing the Deutschlandlied and seeing that famous index finger at the end of each race.
This will be my last blog post until my 2014 season preview in March, so all that remains for me to do is to extend my gratitude to everyone who has read my scribblings this year. I will of course be back to cover all of next year's on-track and off-track action next year, but in the meantime, you can keep up to date with all the F1 news that matters by following @KleinonF1 on Twitter and by reading my ramblings on the soon-to-launch sports website sportontap.com. Until then, have a great Christmas and see you in the new year!
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