Italian Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend's Italian Grand Prix at the legendary Monza circuit marks the end of Formula One's European season as well as, arguably, the last chance for Sebastian Vettel's rivals to make up serious ground on the runaway points leader.

Despite a distinct lack of Italians on the F1 grid these days, the annual visit to Monza is always one of the most atmospheric events of the calendar, thanks in no small part to the Ferrari-loving tifosi.

The venue, situated close to the city of Milan, is the oldest the F1 circus visits, having opened in 1922, and those that were there for the inaugural Italian Grand Prix that year would still recognise the circuit today.

The old banking still exists, albeit in an unusable state, and the rest of the track is more or less the same as it was some 90 years ago. The only real differences are the additions of the chicanes at Rettifilo, just after the start/finish straight, Ascari and Roggia in the 70s in a bid to reduce speeds.

Monza's high-speed nature means that, almost uniquely in today's F1 calendar, downforce goes relatively unrewarded. Instead, a high maximum speed, stability under braking and traction out of the chicanes are the most important factors in securing a good lap time.

Similarly to the previous race at Spa, the medium and hard tyres make up the weekend's allocation, but according to the weathermen, rain could yet play a part in proceedings as well. The DRS zones are unchanged from last year, and can be found on the start/finish straight and on the approach to the Ascari chicane after the second Lesmo.

The big news in the past two weeks is that, after much delay, Red Bull finally announced Daniel Ricciardo as their second driver for next season. The announcement, whilst expected, was music to my ears, having been a fan of the big-smiling Aussie since his Formula Three days in 2009.

What puzzled me, however, is that Red Bull opted to make the announcement on Monday evening - whilst much of the F1 fraternity was attending the premiere of Rush. It almost seemed as if the reigning champion team were keen to downplay Ricciardo's appointment, as if they were embarrassed they hadn't succeeded in signing a 'big name' such as Kimi Raikkonen to partner Vettel.

As I've written many times before though, the decision is absolutely the right one. Not only is Ricciardo a better long-term bet than Raikkonen, who will be the eldest driver on the grid next year, he has proven he has the speed to get the job done during his tenure at Toro Rosso.

Not only that, but his technical feedback is said to be excellent and he'll have no qualms carrying out the PR work Red Bull expect him to, unlike a certain laconic Finn. Unless next year's RB10 seriously underperforms, there's no doubt in my mind that Ricciardo will be a Grand Prix winner by this time next year.

With that particular facet of next year's driver market decided, attention will undoubtedly turn towards Raikkonen, who is yet to commit to Lotus for next season amid rumours that a switch to Ferrari could still be on the cards.

Whilst a fresh deal to remain at Lotus seems the most likely outcome for the Finn, the lingering possibility of a reunion with Ferrari will keep the Enstone team under severe pressure to perform. Lotus will thus be hoping that the introduction of their long wheelbase E21 this weekend marks a step forward in performance after a disappointing showing for the team at Spa.

After finishing a strong second two weeks ago, Fernando Alonso must be feeling upbeat about his chances of taking the fight to Vettel this weekend. After all Monza tends to be a happy hunting ground for Ferrari, whilst the next block of races will favour Red Bull - it's an opportunity to gain ground in the championship that Alonso cannot afford to miss if he is to make a contest of this year's title run-in.

With a 46-point advantage in his pocket, Vettel will no doubt be more than satisfied with a solid haul of points before heading to Singapore, the venue where his season really took off last year. Still, it would be foolish to write off the reigning champion for a victory, especially given that he was able to dominate at Monza two years ago.

If the German can extend his points advantage this weekend, it's fair to say that it would take something very much out of the ordinary for him to not clinch a fourth successive title.

Having been touted as Vettel's biggest threat following his commanding victory at Hungary, Lewis Hamilton, last year's Monza winner, saw his championship aspirations suffer a severe blow at Spa. A strong result at a circuit which, on paper, should suit the Mercedes is thus essential for the Brit to keep Vettel in sight.

Jenson Button conversely was very satisfied with his McLaren's improved performance last time out. What's more, the low downforce layout at Monza in theory gives the Woking team their best chance yet of breaking their 2013 podium duck, even if a win remains well out of reach in dry conditions.

But, if the rain does fall this weekend, all bets are off. In fact, with the driver market beginning to fall into place, a wet weekend could be just the thing for a driver to stake a claim to an opening at a better team, or merely to prove they deserve to hang on to their existing drive.

Paul Di Resta, Adrian Sutil, Nico Hulkenberg, Esteban Gutierrez, Jules Bianchi and Giedo van der Garde all fall into the above category, and it will be fascinating to see which of them respond to the pressure the best.

Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Rosberg, 3. Alonso, 4. Vettel, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Webber, 7. Massa, 8. Grosjean, 9. Button, 10. Di Resta

Race Prediction
1. Alonso, 2. Hamilton, 3. Rosberg, 4. Vettel, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Webber, 7. Perez, 8. Grosjean, 9. Di Resta, 10. Ricciardo

Though Mercedes will sweep all before them in qualifying, Hamilton taking a fifth straight pole position, the Ferrari will prove marginally a better race car, allowing Alonso - cheered on all the way by the tifosi - to get the job done and take a decent chunk out of Vettel's points lead. Hamilton and Rosberg meanwhile will hold on to make it two Silver Arrows on the podium with Vettel taking his equal-worst finish of the year in fourth.

Raikkonen meanwhile will have an uneventful afternoon, starting and finishing fifth ahead of Webber, with Perez getting his McLaren well inside the top ten in seventh place. Next will be Grosjean, somewhat unaccustomed to the circuit after sitting out last year's Italian race due to his one-race ban, with Di Resta and an on-form Ricciardo rounding out the points finishers. Button will suffer his first non-finish since Malaysia as a result of an altercation with the perennially under-pressure Massa.