The Silly Season 2013

Though many paddock observers saw it coming, the recent announcement of Mark Webber's impending retirement from Formula One has inevitably intensified rumours over which drivers may be heading where next year, bringing an earlier than usual start to 'The Silly Season'.

Webber's departure for Porsche's endurance racing programme means there will be at least one top-line drive up for grabs. If Felipe Massa, who has been struggling for form in recent races, is ditched by Ferrari, there could be two vacancies among the top teams, which could prompt a major re-shuffle of the grid.

It appears that Kimi Raikkonen heads Red Bull's wish list of drivers who could partner Sebastian Vettel at the moment, with the Milton Keynes outfit apparently eager to have a proven and reliable points-gatherer at the helm of their second car.

However, questions have to be asked of whether it is really in the team's best interests to have someone as threatening to Vettel's de facto number one status as Raikkonen is likely to be. It's highly improbable, after all, that the Finn is going to be any more sympathetic to obeying team orders than Webber has been.

Besides, there's no guarantee Raikkonen would choose to forsake Lotus in favour of Red Bull. The "Iceman" is said to enjoy the atmosphere at Enstone, and would no doubt balk at the thought of the media commitments Red Bull would like to have him fulfil.

What's more, if Lotus can maintain the kind of form they showed at the Nurburgring, where both Raikkonen and teammate Romain Grosjean challenged for the win, the odds are that Kimi will opt to stay put.

Should Raikkonen indeed spurn Red Bull, that would, by the team's own admission, essentially leave them with a choice between Toro Rosso teammates Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne. It's fairly marginal, but the evidence so far leans towards the former despite the higher points haul of the latter during their time as teammates.

This can be explained by the fact that, while both Ricciardo and Vergne have had a roughly even amount of stand-out drives, it just so happens that, largely down to circumstances, Vergne has been able to finish slightly further up the points on those occasions.

Ricciardo's greater consistency, particularly in qualifying, is reflected in the fact that the Aussie has out-qualified Vergne in 22 of a possible 29 races, and can boast six Q3 appearances (including in each of the last three Grands Prix) against the Frenchman's two.

Either way, you have to question the point of Red Bull's links with Toro Rosso, as well as its young driver programme more broadly, if they pass up both Ricciardo and Vergne in favour of the man who will be the elder statesman of the F1 grid in 2014.

Should that be the case, there will be of course be a seat at Lotus that needs filling. While the team is bullish over its prospects of retaining Raikkonen, they would be well advised to consider who they may like to replace the Finn should they find themselves unable to convince him to stay.

Nico Hulkenberg is virtually certain to be on the market as a result of Sauber breaking his contract through non-payment, and would surely be an attractive prospect to Lotus if they were in need of a replacement for Raikkonen, though the German is likely to also be on Ferrari's radar.

A potential link-up with Ferrari was regarded to be the main motivation for what can now be considered perhaps an ill-judged move from Force India to Sauber, while, as has become traditional for this time of year, Massa is under pressure to retain his drive.

Conversely to last year, when the Brazilian raised his game after an abysmal start to the year, Massa's form has taken a dive at a critical phase of the season, with his early spin into retirement at the Nurburgring the latest in a sequence of costly errors during the last few races.

It's not too late for Massa to turn his situation around, as last year proved, but Ferrari ought to consider who they may like to replace Alonso as their number one driver in the longer term. Hulkenberg is one option to slot in alongside the Spaniard next year, and would probably be at least as competitive as Massa as well as considerably cheaper.

Another contender is Marussia's Jules Bianchi, who is a member of Ferrari's young driver academy and has already built a sound reputation for himself despite the inadequacy of the machinery at his disposal. Ferrari would nonetheless be a gigantic step up for the Frenchman, and a couple of seasons with a midfield team would do him no harm.

Should Massa be dispensed of by Ferrari, he could potentially find refuge at Lotus, although such a move would probably hinge upon Raikkonen moving to Red Bull - Romain Grosjean seems likely to retain his seat if he can maintain the kind of form that saw him finish on the podium at the Nurburgring, particularly when you consider his links to team principal Eric Boullier.

Even then, there's no guarantee Lotus would opt for Massa over a more exciting young talent like Hulkenberg or Paul Di Resta. That means, if he does lose his Ferrari seat, Felipe could find himself in the cold with both McLaren and Mercedes having their existing drivers under contract for next year.

Sauber, whose financial troubles have been the subject of much speculation recently, announced this morning that their immediate future has been guaranteed by an investment by a number of Russian companies, which inevitably will mean a Russian driver at the wheel of one of the Swiss cars.

It seems that man, as one may have assumed, will not be former Renault and Caterham driver Vitaly Petrov. Instead, the investors' preferred candidate is the 17-year-old Formula Renault 3.5 driver Sergey Sirotkin, who stands to become the youngest ever man to start an F1 race if he does indeed take to the grid in March.

It is however hard to see Sirotkin, who is currently only in his third full season of car racing, being able to handle the pressure of motorsport's pinnacle at such a tender age. It could transpire to be a terrible waste of potential for a driver whose results so far suggest that he has what it takes to become Russia's first Grand Prix winner.

Regardless, with Esteban Gutierrez unlikely to be dropped from the team unless his Mexican sponsorship money dries out, it would be Hulkenberg who would get the axe to make way for Sirotkin. If the German is unable to secure a drive at either Ferrari or Lotus, he would be left in a difficult position.

A vacancy at his former Force India team is only likely to appear if Di Resta is snapped up by a larger team, with both he and Adrian Sutil having performed well so far. Williams meanwhile are unlikely to drop either Valtteri Bottas, who has impressed this year, or Pastor Maldonado, whose Venezuelan state oil money is too valuable to lose.

Toro Rosso will be a closed shop for Hulkenberg as well, with Ricciardo and Vergne both likely to stay on for a third season if neither is promoted to a Red Bull drive, and Formula Renault 3.5 driver Antonio Felix da Costa first in line to step in to any vacancy that may open up at Faenza.

Caterham have Charles Pic under contract for next year, but Giedo van der Garde's drive could come under threat from one of a number of similarly well-financed drivers. One possibility is GP2 driver Felipe Nasr, who is fighting for the title this season in just his second year in the category. The Brazilian could also slot into a Marussia seat if Bianchi departs for pastures new.

Alas, the driver market will remain largely up the in air until two key decisions are made: one by Kimi Raikkonen, and the other by the upper management at Ferrari; careers could be made or broken in the next few months based upon what the outcomes of those decisions are.