23 July 2013

Hungarian Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend's Hungarian Grand Prix marks the halfway stage of this year's Formula One season and the final opportunity for the teams and drivers to make an impression on the championship standings before the month-long summer break that follows.

A regular fixture on the calendar since 1986, the Hungaroring presents a real challenge before the drivers with its tight, twisty nature. Sometimes described as "Monaco without the barriers", the 2.7 mile circuit is characterised by a never-ending supply of slow and medium speed corners which rigorously test a car's front-end grip, traction and balance.

A good grid slot at Hungary is key, as overtaking remains next to impossible at the circuit despite the lengthening of the start/finish straight in 2003 and the addition of a DRS zone along it to help facilitate passing into the first corner. A second zone has been placed along the short stretch leading towards the second corner, but will likely have no impact either.

With weather conditions expected to be sweltering (reportedly as high as 37°C or 99°F), immense strain will be placed on the soft and medium compound tyres Pirelli are supplying. The Italian firm originally intended to bring the hard compound, but revised this choice after criticism that such an allocation would be overly conservative. The hot weather could mean they come to regret that decision yet, though.

Furthermore, this weekend marks the debut of the revised specification tyres, which feature this year's compounds combined with last year's constriction, following a successful three-day test last week at Silverstone. The fact that this new rubber is expected to degrade somewhat less may sound ominous for the title battle, but such pessimism would be misplaced.

After the unfortunate pit-lane accident last time out at the Nurburgring which hospitalised FOM cameraman Paul Allen, the FIA has pushed through certain new pit-lane safety measures. Crucial among these is a reduction in the pit-lane speed limit from 100km/h (62mph) to 80km/h (50mph).

This measure will increase the time taken to complete a pit-stop, and thus the disadvantage of making an extra stop in comparison to one's rivals. As this places a further premium on tyre preservation, those teams that have looked after their rubber well in 2013 - namely Ferrari, Lotus and Force India - stand to benefit.

That could be exactly what is required to breathe life into the title fight, with Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen in need of some big results to get back on terms with championship leader Sebastian Vettel.

That said, the fact that overtaking is so difficult at the Hungaroring could in fact lead to a scenario similar to what we saw at Monaco - where those that qualified at the head of the field were able to control the race from the front, and the faster race cars unable to move forward.

That could bring Mercedes into play at Hungary, although both Silver Arrows would probably have to be on the front row to give either Lewis Hamilton - a three times winner at the Hungaroring - or Nico Rosberg a realistic chance of victory given the pace of the Red Bulls.

As well as Vettel, Mark Webber has to be regarded as a strong contender for the win given his strong form in the last couple of races since he announced his upcoming departure from F1; the Aussie took to the top step of the podium at the Hungaroring back in 2010 and is surely overdue his first win of the season.

Raikkonen is another former winner who should be right in the hunt, particularly if the Lotus can get by with one stop fewer than the Mercedes or Red Bull, but a strong grid position will be vital. It will also be fascinating to see if Romain Grosjean can maintain his form from the Nurburgring and challenge for a second successive podium finish.

The high temperatures could be just what Ferrari need to ensure Alonso starts from a decent grid position, in which case a podium finish should be well within reach for the Spaniard. Felipe Massa on the other hand urgently needs to have an error-free weekend and prove once more to his bosses he can be a reliable points-gatherer for the Scuderia.

McLaren have won five of the last six Grands Prix held in Hungary, but there's little evidence to suggest a major upturn in the Woking outfit's form is close at hand. Another solid, points scoring weekend will be all that Jenson Button, who memorably took his first win in the former communist state back in 2006, and Sergio Perez can hope to aspire to.

Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Webber, 4. Rosberg, 5. Alonso, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Grosjean, 8. Sutil, 9. Di Resta, 10. Ricciardo

Race Prediction
1. Webber, 2. Alonso, 3. Vettel, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Grosjean, 6. Hamilton, 7. Sutil, 8. Button, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Rosberg

For the reasons stated above, Webber is my pick for the weekend - and you can bet Red Bull won't bother issuing any kind of team orders if it does boil down to a Webber-Vettel duel for the lead. The warm temperatures should favour Alonso, and although qualifying in fifth will harm his victory prospects, he will still have the pace to overhaul Vettel and finish second.

Raikkonen will finish right on the reigning champion's tail, with Grosjean a few seconds back ahead of pole-sitter Hamilton, who will lose ground by being forced to make an additional stop. Adrian Sutil will collect some more solid points for Force India ahead of Button, Red Bull hopeful Daniel Ricciardo and an embattled Rosberg. Massa will qualify and finish outside of the top ten in another disappointing weekend.

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