22 March 2012

Malaysian Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

After an action-packed first race of the season at Melbourne, the question is what did we learn that will help us predict how the remaining nineteen races on the calendar are likely to unfold?

Unfortunately, the answer is precious little. With its myriad of sharp, slow corners, the Albert Park circuit and its ‘point n’ squirt’ nature is a world away from the sweeping, high-speed curves of the Sepang Circuit where the F1 circus has now arrived. Combine that with the fickle nature of the Malaysian weather, and this weekend’s race is just about as wide open as was the curtain-raiser.

Traditionally, it has been the Red Bull that has excelled at downforce-intensive tracks such as Sepang. Evidence in pre-season testing at Barcelona would however suggest that McLaren are now at least as fast as their Milton Keynes counterparts in that particular department. Australian Grand Prix winner Jenson Button thus therefore can be considered the favourite, particularly as he is well-suited to the blistering heat which places a premium upon the tyre perseveration for which he is renowned as well as the monsoon-style conditions Malaysia has been known to throw up on occasion instead.

In the other side of the garage, Lewis Hamilton will be absolutely determined to score the equaliser in an intra-team battle that looks set to rage all season long – the 2008 champion was visibly glum on the Melbourne podium having finished in third place with no real answer to his teammate’s pace having out-qualified him a day previously. Qualifying won’t be quite as key as it was last weekend with the numerous overtaking opportunities Sepang has to offer augmented by a long DRS zone along the start/finish straight, and if it’s dry, Hamilton will have to manage his tyres far better than he did at last year’s event, where a dismal four-stop strategy along with a 20-second penalty for weaving ensured he finished in a lowly eight position.

On the other hand, it was a relatively straightforward lights-to-flag triumph this time last year for Sebastian Vettel, and he’ll be hoping to prove that the Red Bull isn’t trailing the McLaren quite as badly as events Melbourne would suggest this time around. He may have qualified in a disappointing sixth, but second place was a just reward for a next to faultless race from the reigning champion – with a stronger qualifying this weekend, Vettel should be right in the hunt. It was equally refreshing to see Mark Webber bank his best-ever home race result too, the amicable Aussie having also out-qualified his teammate for the first time since last year’s German Grand Prix. It will be fascinating to see how long Webber can keep up such a promising upturn in form.

Lotus drivers Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean could both yet prove troublesome for the two front-running teams, neither really getting the chance to show their true colours at Melbourne. Grosjean may have plonked his Lotus on the second row in a spectacular qualifying session, but it was all for nought when a poor start led to his early exit from the race courtesy of one Pastor  Maldonado. It was the other way round for Raikkonen, who after qualifying in seventeenth by way of a mistake in Q1 proceeded to finish ten places higher in the race with some impressive pace amid traffic. Both could be potential podium threats if they experience trouble-free weekends.

Much the same applies for Mercedes drivers Nico Rosberg and Michael Schumacher. The latter was running in a strong third place before his gearbox packed up, and Sepang is a track at which he has taken victory three times in the past. One the other hand, the chronic tyre wear suffered by Rosberg last weekend doesn’t bode too well for Malaysia if conditions are dry, as it was that tyre wear that put the younger of the Mercedes teammates in the position to pick up a puncture after making contact with the Sauber of Sergio Perez on the final lap of the race. The two silver cars will therefore need to be sure of a strong qualifying session to compensate.

Fernando Alonso may have a done a stellar job to finish his reluctant Ferrari in fifth position at Melbourne, but the weekend was nothing short of disaster for teammate Felipe Massa. The Brazilian struggled with excessive tyre wear throughout the race, eventually retiring after colliding with Bruno Senna in the closing stages of the race, who himself had recovered after getting embroiled in the traditional first corner mêlée. Ferrari have given Massa the benefit of the doubt by providing him with a fresh chassis for this weekend, but the Italian press are already calling for his dismissal – Perez and the out-of-work Jarno Trulli being mooted as potential replacements.

Speaking of Perez, the Mexican enjoyed an excellent afternoon last time out, and would’ve almost certainly crossed the line in sixth if not for the late contact with Rosberg. Instead, teammate Kamui Kobayashi nabbed the position, but the pace of both the Sauber drivers would indicate that they lead the mid-field pack ahead of Force India and Toro Rosso for now. Maldonado may have been on course for a terrific sixth place prior to his last lap shunt, but the Venezelan’s fondness for street circuits as well as Senna’s lacklustre race means we shouldn’t pass judgement on just how big a step Williams have taken just yet. As for the three perennial stragglers, Caterham appear hardly any closer to the midfield than they were last year, with apparent reliability issues to sort out, whilst the Marussia definitely seems to have the legs on at least the HRT on the strength of both drivers actually qualifying for the race – Glock’s 14th place finish could prove crucial when it comes to determining the team’s constructors championship placing come November.

Qualifying Prediction:
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Button, 4. Webber, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Schumacher, 8. Alonso, 9. Grosjean, 10. Kobayashi

Race Prediction:
1. Vettel, 2. Button, 3. Webber, 4. Hamilton, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Alonso, 7. Grosjean, 8. Rosberg, 9. Kobayashi, 10. Hulkenberg

This may be admittedly another fairly conservative prediction, but I’m not going to stick my neck on the line by forecasting a Lotus or Mercedes podium just yet. Indeed, the top four from Melbourne will be the same for Sepang in a different order, with Hamilton’s tyre wear woes dropping him back from a second straight pole position. I can’t help but feel Vettel is going to strike back sooner or later, and provided it remains dry there’s no reason in my view why Malaysia can’t be the place. Alonso will once again wring every possible point out of the Ferrari with Massa nowhere in sight, with Raikkonen just pipping the Spaniard to the mark at the circuit where he claimed his first Grand Prix win nine years ago. Grosjean will bank a healthy handful of points ahead of Rosberg, Mercedes tyre wear gremlins likely to harm the prospects of both of the silver cars. Kobayashi will enjoy a quietly impressive race weekend by starting and finishing inside the top ten, with Nico Hulkenberg levelling the score with teammate Paul di Resta with a measured drive to tenth position.

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