4 March 2012

2012 Season Preview

Hello! Welcome to my humble blog once more, now moving into its third year of meticulous reporting on all aspects of Formula One. Be sure to check back regularly for race reports and features every weekend, as well as to subscribe to my Twitter feed (@KleinonF1) to keep abreast of all the latest F1 news.

As the eagle-eyed among you are sure to have by now noticed, a series of tabs have emerged since the end of last season. By clicking on them, you'll find all the information you need for this season, including a full run-down of teams and their drivers, list of events for this season and the full championship standings when they become available. In addition, you'll also discover a comprehensive timeline of events that have occurred in the sport since 1950, as well as a plethora of vital F1 statistics for your reference. And finally, I've taken the executive decision to re-instate the 'poll' feature, which can be seen on the right hand side of the page, so make sure you cast vote and make your opinions heard.

As is always the case during the weeks leading up to the first Grand Prix of any season, the true form of all the front-running teams and drivers is shrouded in mystery - Will anybody be able to stop Sebastian Vettel from strolling to a hat-trick of titles? Has Lewis Hamilton put his demons that set him back last season firmly behind him? Is the new Ferrari contender too radical for its own good? Will Mercedes finally take that illusive step into the top echelon of teams? And how will former champion Kimi Raikkonen fare in his much-vaunted comeback with the Lotus team?

Of course, there have been a number of subtle tweaks to the rules since last season, albeit not on the same scale as the alterations that made the racing during 2011 some of the best F1 fans have seen for some time. On the technical side of things, perhaps the most significant change is that 'blown diffusers', that is to say the practice of feeding exhaust gases through the rear diffuser in order to create downforce, have been outlawed with a new technical regulation that requires the exhausts to be positioned higher up the car's bodywork. The FIA then took the further step of banning all attempts to feed exhaust gases over any part of the car with the purpose of aerodynamic gain, as well as more recently re-writing the standard ECU to prevent teams from exploiting a loophole in the regulations that would have permitted partially-blown diffusers after the governing body was tipped off by Mercedes.

In addition, the 'reactive ride height' system that both Lotus and Ferrari had been developing over winter was declared to be illegal by the FIA, in spite of their previous verdict that it conformed to the regulations - the system would have provided added stability under braking by using hydraulic cylinders located in the car's suspension to keep the car's ride height constant. The most visually obvious change in the technical rulebook is however the stipulation that the car's nose must now be 7.5 centimetres lower than last year, resulting in the distinctive 'stepped' nose that has been adopted by every team that has launched their car so far with the exception of McLaren. Inevitably, there have been many complaints among fans that the cars are now too ugly to even lay eyes upon, but as was the case back in 2009 (when the 'skinny' aerodynamic rules were introduced), we'll all be used to the sport's new look after two or three races.

On top of all that, there have been a number of minor sporting regulation changes too. First, lapped traffic will once more be permitted to 'un-lap' itself during safety car periods, with the intention of ensuring backmarkers don't spoil fights for position up front. Also, The FIA will be taking a stricter stance on driving etiquette, with a driver no longer allowed to re-take the racing line having moved off of it in order to defend a position, while drivers will no longer have three sets of tyres specifically allocated to them for Friday practice. Finally, all races will from now on be capped at a maximum duration of four hours during indefinite suspensions of races, in theory meaning last year's Canadian Grand Prix (which lasted just under four hours and five minutes) will remain the longest in F1 history for the foreseeable future.

As for the calendar, the most obvious change is the return of the United States Grand Prix, which was last held at Indianapolis in 2007. This year's edition will take place at the brand new, Hermann Tilke-designed (who else?) Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, and takes its place as the penultimate venue on this year's schedule. Elsewhere, the Bahrain Grand Prix is back despite the ongoing political turmoil within the tiny desert kingdom, occupying the fourth slot in the schedule for the time being at least, whilst the German Grand Prix returns to the Hockenheimring in accordance with the venue's alternating agreement with the Nurburgring, which hosted the race last season.

Got all of that? In that case, let's move on to scrutinising the prospects of all 12 teams and 24 drivers for the 2012 season...


Red Bull Racing

Drivers – Sebastian Vettel (D), Mark Webber (AU)
Reserve Driver – Sebastien Buemi (CH)

The signs that we’ve seen during pre-season testing so far appear to indicate that the Red Bull team, who cantered so effortlessly to both the drivers and constructors titles last year, will once more prove the team to beat in 2012. The new Red Bull RB8, designed by the technical virtuoso that is Adrian Newey, unsurprisingly bears a strong resemblance to its all-conquering predecessor, and so far has gone exceptionally well during testing race simulations. This means that Sebastian Vettel has to begin this season as favourite to take a third title on the trot, though that isn’t to say that the young German is likely to have things as easy as he did last year. In fact, his biggest challenger could well come from within the team in the form of Mark Webber, who despite having been made to look rather average last season appears to be somewhat re-invigorated after a positive winter. That said, it will require a herculean effort on the part of the Australian to match the form of his teammate, who at the tender age of 24 is likely to only get better and better as each season passes at this stage of his career.

Vodafone McLaren Mercedes

Drivers – Jenson Button (GB), Lewis Hamilton (GB)
Reserve Drivers – Gary Paffett (GB), Oliver Turvey (GB)

If there’s one team that can depose Red Bull this season, much like last year it would seem that team is McLaren. The new MP4-27 is the only car that has been unveiled so far that has eschewed the controversial ‘stepped’ nose in favour of a more traditional set-up, which indicates the team has opted to retain less of the DNA of their challenger from last year than their rivals. This approach would have appeared to have paid off, the car looking to have the one-lap pace that was lacking for much of last season in comparison to Red Bull. Jenson Button has arguably come off the back of his best ever season in F1, which in theory will make him equally formidable this season, whilst Lewis Hamilton looks to have put behind him at least some of the demons that were unquestionably holding him back last year. Whether that will be enough to topple Vettel is another question altogether – the danger persists that the pair of Brits will take away too many points from each other for either to represent a real title threat.

Scuderia Ferrari

Drivers – Fernando Alonso (E), Felipe Massa (BR)
Reserve Drivers – Giancarlo Fisichella (I), Marc Gene (E), Davide Rigon (I)

Will this be yet another year of disappointment for Ferrari? Whilst things for the oldest and most illustrious team of them all have not been looking terribly promising in testing, prompting new technical director Pat Fry to predict that neither Ferrari driver will feature on the podium at Melbourne, it shouldn’t be forgotten that last season McLaren suffered an abysmal winter before bouncing back in time for the first race. The team can also take heart from the fact that its imaginatively titled F2012 challenger looked a damn sight better at the second test at Barcelona than it did two weeks earlier at Jerez, though at this stage the rather aggressively-designed machine still has work to do before being on a par with McLaren and Red Bull. Drivers Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa are nonetheless quietly confident about their prospects this season, both claiming that there is a lot more speed to be unlocked from within the car. Alonso of course is more than capable of extracting the very maximum from any car handed to him, whilst 2012 really is ‘last-chance saloon’ for Massa, who absolutely has to improve on his miserable tally of zero podiums last season to stand any chance of retaining his seat next year in the face of stiff competition.

Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team

Drivers – Michael Schumacher (D), Nico Rosberg (D)
Reserve Driver – TBA

Team principal Ross Brawn has set his Mercedes team a fairly ambitious goal for 2012 – to finish in the top three of the constructors standings. He may have head-hunted Aldo Costa and Geoff Willis to help the Brackley-based team achieve this end, but overhauling one of Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari will prove no mean feat for a team that has been firmly locked in fourth position for the last two seasons. The new W03, which was only launched in time for the second test at Barcelona, has looked like it could, for the time being, at least prove a match for Ferrari, though as ever it will be virtually impossible to assess the relative pace of any of the teams with total accuracy until Q1 gets underway at Melbourne. Question marks still surround just how good Michael Schumacher v2.0 is, which in turn has made it frustratingly difficult to pinpoint the extent of the talents of his teammate Nico Rosberg. If the Mercedes is up to the challenge this season however, it may just be that F1 fans finally have their questions answered. A first win for the team since its Brawn GP days is far from out of the question, whilst both drivers will no doubt be equally desperate to clinch victory number ninety-two and one respectively.

Lotus F1 Team

Drivers – Kimi Raikkonen (FIN), Romain Grosjean (F)
Reserve Driver – Jerome D’Ambrosio (B)

The newly renamed Lotus team, which has until now competed as Renault since 2002, will be looking to pick up where they left off at the end of 2010, when Robert Kubica finished inside the top eight of the championship. The Enstone-based outfit suffered dearly in the absence of their star driver last season, and while the Pole is yet to fully recover from the horrific accident he had just over a year ago, the team have secured the services of another proven winner in the form of Kimi Raikkonen to drive their new E20 contender. After two mediocre seasons in the World Rally Championship, the Finn is as motivated as ever to work toward his second F1 title. More to the point, the testing timesheets indicate that the ‘Iceman’ has lost none of the speed that propelled him towards championship glory in 2007, and reigning GP2 champion Romain Grosjean provides an ideal number two driver who stands to benefit enormously from his teammates experience. The Franco-Swiss driver has well and truly earned a second crack of the F1 whip, his two year stint in GP2 having added a much-needed dose of maturity to his obvious speed. The team may have suffered somewhat from its lack of running at the second pre-season test at Barcelona, making a repeat of the shock early podiums last year unlikely; don’t be too shocked however if Raikkonen’s undiminished prowess nets the team a top-three finish or two later in the season.

Sahara Force India F1 Team

Drivers – Paul di Resta (GB), Nico Hulkenberg (D)
Reserve Driver – Jules Bianchi (F)

The Force India team faces an uphill struggle if it is to continue its upward trajectory in the constructors standings. The team finished sixth last season, just falling short of edging out Renault for fifth, but it would do well indeed to outscore the seemingly rejuvenated Lotus team this year. Even so, the new Mercedes-powered VJM-05 has looked promising, regularly outpacing their rivals at Sauber, Williams and Toro Rosso. Paul di Resta remains with the team for a second season, and will be hoping to build on the impressive rookie campaign he had last season. Also looking for an eye-catching sophomore year will be his new teammate Nico Hulkenberg, who replaces his out-of-favour countryman Adrian Sutil. This was the man who, lest we forget, bagged Williams its first pole position in five years in the rain at the 2010 Brazilian Grand Prix, so it’s far from inconceivable that he could come out on top of what should prove to be one of the more intriguing intra-team rivalries on the grid this season. GP2 frontrunner Jules Bianchi will also be eager to follow in Hulkenberg’s footsteps and prove himself worthy of an F1 race seat as he participates in selected outings for the team in Friday practice this season in conjunction with a season in World Series by Renault.

Sauber F1 Team

Drivers – Kamui Kobayashi (J), Sergio Perez (MEX)
Reserve Driver – Esteban Gutierrez (MEX)

Peter Sauber’s eponymous team got off to a flying start last year before tailing off during the latter stages, so they will be hoping to sustain their performance all season this time around. The departure of technical director James Key’s will have hardly helped matters, but his DNA is nevertheless to be found in this year’s striking C31. Both of the Swiss team’s drivers have important years ahead of them. After something of a lacklustre second half of 2011, Kamui Kobayashi needs to prove he has the pace to stave off the challenge of his teammate Sergio Perez, as well as to rediscover some of the spark that turned so many heads during the second half of 2010 and the early part of last year, whilst Perez needs to add a healthy dose of consistency to his evident pace to put himself in the frame for a hypothetical promotion to Ferrari. A disappointing year for either could seriously limit the lifespan of their careers, whilst a good season could equally have the precise opposite effect – as is the case at Force India, this battle of the teammates could well be among the closest on the grid.

Scuderia Toro Rosso

Drivers – Daniel Ricciardo (AU), Jean-Eric Vergne (F)
Reserve Driver – Sebastien Buemi (CH)

Needless to say that, as a young driver, being backed by Red Bull has its perks, but along with the substantial amount of energy drink cash comes even more pressure to succeed. Just ask Toro Rosso’s drivers from last year, Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersauri – the pair were deemed to not be future champions by Red Bull head honcho Helmut Marko, and have consequently been released in favour of Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne, the two drivers next in line in the Red Bull Junior Team. The new STR7, whilst hardly looking like anything more than a solid midfield contender, should provide the perfect platform for both men to launch their F1 careers, the extent of Ricciardo’s talent in particular having been up to now masked by the deficiencies of the HRT car during his handful of outings for the Spanish team last year. The two men don’t have time on their side when it comes to the business of proving that they are the worthy successor of Mark Webber at the senior Red Bull team, rendering the stakes higher for Ricciardo and Vergne this year than perhaps for any other driver in the thick of the midfield battle.

Williams F1 Team

Drivers – Pastor Maldonado (YV), Bruno Senna (BR)
Reserve Driver – Valtteri Bottas (FIN)

If Williams is ever going to reverse its apparently inexorable decline towards oblivion, 2012 has to be the year. A new era has dawned at the team as co-founders Frank Williams and Patrick Head have both stepped down from the team’s board since the end of last season, breaking just about the last remaining link modern-day F1 enjoyed with its ‘good old’ less commercialised and professionalised past. The team has jettisoned Rubens Barrichello (who has now committed to racing in IndyCar this season), and brought in another Brazilian in the form of Bruno Senna to partner Pastor Maldonado. The decision to do so may have been partially rooted in financial concerns, Senna bringing valuable backing from Embratel and Gillette, but the nephew of triple champion Ayrton did show glimpses of promise during his stint at Renault late last season. It will be interesting to see how he and Maldonado, who performed solidly last season, fare at the wheel of the new Renault-powered FW34, which has so far looked likes representing a step forward from its ill-fated predecessor. Finland’s next likely F1 driver, GP3 champion Valtteri Bottas, will also compete during selected Friday practice sessions, whilst the signing of new technical director Mike Coughlan could also well signify the start of a long and arduous recovery for this once-great team.

Caterham F1 Team

Drivers – Heikki Kovalainen (FIN), Vitaly Petrov (RUS)
Reserve Driver – Giedo van der Garde (NL)

The newly rechristened Caterham team, which competed under the ‘Team Lotus’ moniker last year, is, much like a year ago, anticipating that this year will finally bring its long-awaited first points. Testing has provided indication that this particular objective may prove a tad on the ambitious side, the new CT01 tending to find itself largely toward the bottom of the timesheets, but that isn’t to say the team has made no progress since last season. If anyone is capable of excelling the capabilities of the car, then it’s Heikki Kovalainen, who drove immaculately last season unfortunately for no tangible recompense. Jarno Trulli meanwhile, in spite of previously being confirmed as a driver for the team this year, has been cast aside in favour of the better-funded Vitaly Petrov, who has performed satisfactorily at Renault for the past two seasons.  This means that for the first time in a World Championship race since 1973, there will be no Italians entered at Melbourne; Giedo van der Garde on the other hand has taken a step towards being the first Dutch driver on the grid in a good five years with the confirmation that he will partake in a number of Friday practice sessions this season.

HRT F1 Team

Drivers – Pedro de la Rosa (E), Narain Karthikeyan (IND)
Reserve Driver – Dani Clos (E)

After a second straight season vying with Virgin Racing (now Marussia) to avoid F1’s ‘wooden spoon’ award, the boys at HRT really need to make something vaguely resembling a step forward in order to guarantee their immediate F1 future. The new F112 was expected to launch in time for the second test at Barcelona after new signing Pedro de la Rosa competed during the first two days of the earlier test at Jerez, but this effort was thwarted when the car failed to comply with all the mandatory FIA crash tests in time. The team eventually overcame this hurdle, but still failed to prepare the car in time for the final test at Barcelona, meaning practice at Melbourne will be the first time the car will have been driven in anger. The arrival of de la Rosa, one of the most experienced drivers in the history of the sport in terms of sheer miles driven, can only be a good thing for the car’s development, whilst Narain Karthikeyan will be keen to show he hasn’t returned to the team (having been forced aside for Daniel Ricciardo mid-way through last season) simply for the sake of his Indian sponsors keeping the team afloat. GP2 racer Dani Clos will also partake in numerous practice sessions for the team, taking advantage of the team’s efforts to become something of a Spanish national effort.

Marussia F1 Team

Drivers – Timo Glock (D), Charles Pic (F)
Reserve Driver – TBA

It has to be said that things are not looking rosy for the rebranded Marussia team. The Russian-owned outfit was hoping that their latest challenger, the MR01, the first in the team’s short history to have been designed using wind tunnel testing, would be ready in time for the final test at Barcelona. Coming a-cropper of its final FIA crash test made that an impossibility however, meaning their new car, along with that of HRT, will not be driven competitively until Melbourne, though the team did attend the second pre-season test at Barcelona with its 2011 design. It should also be noted that the MR01 will be the only car this season to not run with KERS, whilst rumour has it that it will be the only car besides the McLaren not to feature a stepped nose design. There are still causes for the team to be optimistic – the new car is the first to feature the input of new technical consultant Pat Symonds, whilst the modified driver line-up of Timo Glock and Charles Pic, who replaces Jerome D’Ambrosio, is a very sound one, the latter coming off the back of a GP2 campaign in which he showed flashes of real potential. The combined talents of all three of the aforementioned could well be enough to keep Marussia out of the last place in the constructors table it has so begrudgingly occupied for the past two years.

Championship Predictions
It’s still far too early to call this year’s championship, but my prediction can’t be much worse than last year’s – I predicted Alonso as the champion on the strength of Ferrari’s showing in testing and Button to be down in sixth place! Forgive me if I end up being some way off the mark again…

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Alonso, 4. Webber, 5. Button, 6. Rosberg, 7. Massa, 8. Raikkonen, 9. Schumacher, 10. Grosjean, 11. Hulkenberg, 12. Ricciardo, 13. Vergne, 14. di Resta, 15. Perez, 16. Senna, 17. Kobayashi, 18. Maldonado, 19. Kovalainen, 20. Petrov, 21. Glock, 22. de la Rosa, 23. Pic, 24. Karthikeyan

1. Red Bull-Renault, 2. McLaren-Mercedes, 3. Ferrari, 4. Mercedes, 5. Lotus-Renault, 6. Force India-Mercedes, 7. Toro Rosso-Ferrari, 8. Sauber-Ferrari, 9. Williams-Renault, 10. Caterham-Renault, 11. Marussia-Cosworth, 12. HRT-Cosworth

Fancy a Flutter?
I would hardly describe myself as a betting man when it comes to most things in life, but motorsport is a different story. Perhaps more the case than in any other sport, detailed knowledge of F1 can put a wise punter in a strong position to take advantage of the odds offered by the majority of bookies. Here’s a rundown of the outright odds for the front-runners*:

Vettel evens, Hamilton 6-1, Alonso 6-1, Button 10-1, Webber 16-1, Rosberg 25-1, Schumacher 28-1, Raikkonen 33-1, Massa 100-1

At evens, Vettel is tremendous value considering his status as pre-season favourite. Should the German win, a £100 bet would yield £200, money that could be used to cover both Hamilton and Alonso with bets of £25 apiece. Button and Webber, whilst perhaps lesser contenders for the title win, are both tempting choices for each-way bets. Webber at 16-5 in particular isn’t a bad tip to finish in the top three of the championship, whilst it could be argued that Massa is almost worth sticking a fiver on each-way at 20-1 just in case the Ferrari miraculously becomes the car to beat.

That’s all from me for now, but be sure to check back next weekend when I’ll be investigating the trend between the winners of the first race and the eventual championship victor prior to my comprehensive report of the Australian Grand Prix.

* Odds taken from oddschecker.com on 4 March 2012

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