Turkish Grand Prix 2011 – Qualifying Report

Sebastian Vettel's unbroken record of pole positions for this season has remained exactly that during qualifying for the Turkish Grand Prix after yet another blinding lap from the German. His Red Bull teammate Mark Webber will join him on the front row after setting a time four tenths of a second slower than the reigning champion, whilst Nico Rosberg was able to continue Mercedes's promising form by lining up in third.

Q1

Vettel was the first of the pole contenders to set a time, using the harder compound tyres to set a 1'27.0. Fernando Alonso, after a series of updates for the Ferrari were made on the off-form red cars since last time out, could only manage a time six tenths slower. The Spaniard's effort was then matched by Sebastien Buemi, who made use of the soft tyres in order to do so, and was a tenth faster than Michael Schumacher's initial run on hard tyres. The seven-time champion's teammate Rosberg was able to take a provisional second place with a time two tenths quicker, but he was soon deposed by the Red Bull of Webber, who came within six hundredths of Vettel. Lewis Hamilton matched Webber at the wheel of his McLaren, with Jenson Button in the other silver-and-red car a couple of tenths further back in fourth place. Vitaly Petrov showed Renault's potential by setting a time good enough for fifth place, but after an extremely poor first lap that left him on the bubble towards the end of the session, Felipe Massa felt the need to use the soft tyres to assure himself of a place in Q2. Despite the significant advantage of the soft rubber however, he only just beat Vettel's best time which was set using hard tyres – a lucid indication of the current gulf in pace between the Ferrari and Red Bull. None of the new-team drivers could do enough to go any further than Q1, although Heikki Kovalainen came within a creditable seven tenths of doing so. Joining the six regulars at the back of the field will be Kamui Kobayashi, after his Sauber suffered a loss of power before the young Japanese charge could post a time.

Eliminated – Heikki Kovalainen (Lotus), Jarno Trulli (Lotus), Jerome D'Ambrosio (Virgin), Vitantonio Liuzzi (Hispania), Timo Glock (Virgin), Narain Karthikeyan (Hispania), Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber)

Q2

Curiously, both Mercedes cars were sent out for their first runs on hard tyres, meaning Schumacher's initial time of 1'27.5 was blown away by one-and-a-half seconds when Webber put on the softs. Button was four tenths adrift of the Australian after his first lap, but Vettel took an ominous four tenths out of the time of his fellow Red Bull driver. Hamilton matched Webber's time to go into second, while Alonso's time was another tenth slower. After getting onto the soft tyres, Schumacher was able to relieve his former championship rival for fifth position, but Rosberg reached second after a fine lap in the sister Mercedes. Further down the order, Nick Heidfeld denied Rubens Barrichello a berth in Q3 by two tenths of a second, meaning the Brazilian joined his teammate Pastor Maldonado, both Force Indias, Toro Rossos and the sole remaining Sauber of Sergio Perez in being eliminated.

Eliminated – Rubens Barrichello (Williams), Adrian Sutil (Force India), Paul Di Resta (Force India), Pastor Maldonado (Williams), Sergio Perez (Sauber), Sebastien Buemi (Toro Rosso), Jaime Alguersauri (Toro Rosso)

Q3

Only three of the ten remaining runners in qualifying, both McLarens and Alonso, opted to make two runs in the final session of qualifying off the back of Hamilton's success in China, when the Brit conserved a set of tyres in Q3 to subsequently win the race. Petrov opened the going with a 1'26.4, a time shaded by four tenths by Button. Alonso made good use of the revised Ferrari to go another tenth faster, but unsurprisingly Webber was able to depose the two-time champion with a time that was quicker by four tenths. Hamilton later slotted neatly into second after his first run, but then along came one S. Vettel who put in another of his trademark flawless laps to lock away pole position with a time four tenths faster than Webber. After getting out of the car on his return to the pit-lane, the provisional pole-sitter watched his compatriot Rosberg reach an excellent third place, just a tenth shy of knocking Webber off the front row. Curiously, Schumacher was unable to extract the maximum out of his Mercedes during his first Q3 of the season, meaning he'll start tomorrow a disappointing eighth, sandwiched between the two Renaults. None of the three men to attempt a second run managed to improve their position, while Massa failed to even set a time at all after abandoning his one and only run of the session because of a mistake.

Top 10 – Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull), Mark Webber (Red Bull), Nico Rosberg (Mercedes), Lewis Hamilton (McLaren), Fernando Alonso (Ferrari), Jenson Button (McLaren), Vitaly Petrov (Renault), Michael Schumacher (Mercedes), Nick Heidfeld (Renault), Felipe Massa (Ferrari)

My Prediction

Barring another strategic error à la Shanghai, a third win in four races for Vettel would appear to be on the cards with Webber not too far behind. Here's the rest of my prediction for tomorrow's race:

1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Hamilton, 4. Alonso, 5. Rosberg, 6. Massa, 7. Schumacher, 8. Heidfeld, 9. Kobayashi, 10. Sutil

Personally, I think a podium for Rosberg is a long shot given the seemingly superior race trim of both the McLaren and Ferrari, while Massa, as a three-time winner at this track, should be able to make up a few positions. I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a controversial clash between Button and Petrov in the opening stages of the race, allowing Schumacher and Heidfeld to gain places. Behind, Sutil will surpass Barrichello, but won't quite hold off Kobayashi for ninth as the Sauber driver makes good use of his extra tyres and natural overtaking talents to scythe his way through the pack, Webber-style.

We'll discover tomorrow how events at Istanbul unfold, and if the last two races have been anything to go by, we should be in for another corking grand prix. Check back here tomorrow for a full report of the action.