Well, here we are. After all the fracas surrounding whether
or not we should be, the fact is F1 has come to Bahrain to race and nothing
else. I’ve already dealt with the core of the issue in my previous preview
post, putting myself on the record that I back the decision for the race to go
ahead.
This morning, it was reported that a member of the Force
India team had chosen to leave Bahrain following an incident on Wednesday
evening whereby a Molotov cocktail exploded near a hire car being used by four
of the team’s mechanics while it was stopped along the motorway due to clashes between
police and protesters. Whilst none of
the personnel involved were injured, the fact remains that the teams were aware
of the possible safety risks, yet chose to attend the race nonetheless. Of
course, there are theoretically safety risks wherever F1 races – let’s not
forget the incidents of armed robbery in Sao Paulo that affected Jenson Button
and a group of Sauber engineers in the build-up to the 2010 Brazilian Grand
Prix.
The entire situation is somewhat reminiscent of the 1985
South African Grand Prix, where controversy surrounded the decision to race
there in the face of increasing international dismay with South Africa’s policy
of apartheid. In the event, the Renault and Ligier teams were forced to
withdraw from the race due to pressure from the French government, who
effectively financed both (Renault was a state-owned company at the time,
whilst the French state tobacco monopoly of SEITA backed Ligier via the Gitanes cigarette brand). McLaren also
ran devoid of Marlboro decals as the tobacco giant was keen to avoid
association with the event, and the possibility remains that a similar
situation could take place this weekend at Bahrain.
The South African race however otherwise took place without
incident, though it was subsequently dropped indefinitely from the calendar by
FISA. That could well prove to be the case for Bahrain this year, although a
return to the calendar such as that of South Africa after apartheid was
abolished seems doubtful with so many other nations eyeing an F1 race at
present.
Now, back to the small matter of the race itself. The tyre
compounds allocated for the race are the soft and medium compounds, which
considering the likely heat in Bahrain should make tyre preservation quite a
challenge. This will also be the first time DRS will have been used at the
circuit, and predictably it will be in use down the start/finish straight into
the tight first corner. The uninspiring extra half-mile loop of track first
seen at the 2010 race will thankfully not be used this time around, creating a
faster and more flowing track layout.
The biggest question surrounding this weekend’s on-track
action is whether Mercedes will be able to maintain the performance level they
demonstrated at China. The relatively cool conditions last time out meant that the
tyre wear problems that Mercedes experienced in the dry at Melbourne were less
of an issue, whilst the different track layout was also instrumental in allowing
the team to capitalise on the car’s inherent speed. Whilst there’s no reason to
suggest that the Mercedes won’t be equally devastating in a single lap at
Bahrain as it proved to be in China bearing in mind the Sahkir track’s long straights,
a podium for either driver seems a long shot if the car’s race pace is compromised
as it was during the opening race.
The wheels quite literally coming off Michael Schumacher’s
challenge for victory last weekend was a bitter disappointment to put it
mildly. Not only has Schumacher’s largely impressive speed been unfairly
rewarded with just a single point so far this season, but F1 fans were also denied
the first real opportunity to compare his pace to that of his teammate Nico
Rosberg over an entire race distance with a fully competitive Mercedes. The
seven-time champion will be even more desperate now to level the score with
Rosberg, whose win at Shanghai was as convincing as any of Schumacher’s 91
wins. F1 fans can at least anticipate a mighty battle for supremacy at the
Brackley-based team, even if neither Schumacher nor Rosberg are overly likely
to feature in the title chase towards the end of the year.
McLaren once more have to be considered favourites to take
the win at Bahrain, even if pole position eludes both Button and Lewis Hamilton
as it did in China. As a master of tyre conservation, Button has a strong chance
of adding to his Melbourne victory, particularly if the conditions at Bahrain
prove similar. Hamilton meanwhile can never be discounted, but in both dry
races so far he has reached the chequered flag behind his teammate – how he
manages his tyres in the blistering desert heat will very much be the key to his
finishing position.
Red Bull rebounded well from their most disappointing
qualifying session in recent memory at China to claim fourth and fifth places,
underlining their inherently strong race pace. Expect Mark Webber to therefore
be a factor for a podium finish at the least, though Sebastian Vettel in the
sister car will need to get on top of the issues he had with the latest-spec
Red Bull exhaust to really be in a position to beat his teammate. The other
possible contender for a visit to the rostrum is Lotus’s Kimi Raikkonen, who
occupied second place at China for a number of laps before his tyres disintegrated.
The Finn’s pace for much of the weekend was solid, and he could prove the first
in line to benefit from some Mercedes tyre woes to sneak his way onto the
podium if he qualifies clear of the Red Bulls.
Fernando Alonso, the most recent winner of the Bahrain race
two years ago, will once more be in damage limitation mode in the final race
before the crucial test at Mugello; a top-eight result would probably be enough
to satisfy the double-champion given the pace of the car. Sauber should be in
the mix for points in spite of a somewhat lacklustre outing at China, the team
not helped by the cool temperatures which prevented them from exploiting their
car’s knack for looking after its tyres. Williams will in the meantime be
looking to bank further points following two terrific races for the Grove-based
team, whilst Force India and Toro Rosso are really in need of an extra turn of
speed before either of their respective drivers can entertain hopes of finding
a way back into the points-paying positions.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Rosberg, 3. Button, 4. Schumacher, 5.
Raikkonen, 6. Webber, 7. Vettel, 8. Grosjean, 9. Alonso, 10. Maldonado
Race Prediction
1. Button, 2. Hamilton, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Webber, 5. Vettel,
6. Rosberg, 7. Schumacher, 8. Alonso, 9. Perez, 10. Senna
Much as I predicted in China, Button has another brilliant
opportunity on his hands to take the top step of the podium, even if he doesn’t
make the front row of the grid on Saturday. Hamilton will end up just behind
his teammate having not looked after his tyres quite as well, with Raikkonen
making his first visit to the podium in three years with a superb performance
to narrowly overcome Red Bull Messrs Webber and Vettel. Rosberg will fade as
the race wears on along with
Schumacher, with Alonso coming home just behind in eighth place. Sergio Perez
will benefit from relatively light tyre wear to claw his way into the points,
with Bruno Senna continuing his run of points finishes with a clean run to
tenth place.
No comments:
Post a Comment