The declining interest in F1 in Japan in general is belied
by the army of legion of fans who make the annual pilgrimage to the Suzuka
Circuit, who rank among some of the most passionate anywhere in the world. Over
the years, they’ve been treated to some epic confrontations, many of which have
decided the title: Senna and Prost’s infamous coming-togethers in 1989-90,
crowning victories for Damon Hill, Mika Hakkinen and Michael Schumacher as well
as Kimi Raikkonen’s tremendous charge through the field in 2005 ranking as some
of the highlights.
The circuit itself is a real test of man and machine, being
one of the longest on the calendar at 3.6 miles. The seemingly-endless
switchbacks of the first sector of the lap demand abundant front-end grip,
whilst corners like Degner and the mighty 130R are a true test of a driver’s
commitment and rear-end stability. The DRS zone, as per last year, is to be
found on the main straight on the approach to the imaginatively-titled ‘First
Curve’, with hard and soft compound Pirellis on offer to make for some
intriguing strategy options.
Fresh from victory two weeks ago at Singapore, Sebastian
Vettel has taken over from Lewis Hamilton as Alonso’s closest title rival. The
Red Bull should be at home around Suzuka, whilst the German himself can boast
two victories at the circuit in 2009 and 2010 to go with his title-clinching
second place last year. A third Japanese victory for Vettel this weekend would
underline his title credentials, with the gap between himself and Alonso
standing at 29 points, whilst teammate Mark Webber is all but out of the
running barring a spectacular return to the form that has been absent since his
Silverstone victory back in July.
McLaren is facing something of a quandry as far as its title
ambitions are concerned. Whilst a bid for the constructors’ title that has
eluded Woking since 1998 appears to be well on course, considering the team has
taken the last four pole positions, their prospects for the drivers’ title are
somewhat more shaky. Their drivers Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button are 52 and
75 points adrift of Alonso respectively, which puts a team renowned for their
reluctance to use team orders in a difficult position – do they ask Button to
play a supporting role to Hamilton at this stage, or continue to allow their
drivers to race freely?
Matters of course are further complicated by the recent
announcement that Hamilton will be driving for Mercedes next season, which
would lessen still the willingness of the team to give up on the title
ambitions of Button, who is believed to be contracted to McLaren until the end
of 2014. There’s no reason to suggest that McLaren won’t be firmly in
contention for a fourth victory in five races at Suzuka; Button will no doubt
be hoping for a repeat of his 2011 success whilst Hamilton will be equally
eager to strike Suzuka from the list of tracks at which he is yet to win –
though he did triumph at a very wet Fuji back in 2007.
With the exception of Spa, Alonso has finished in the top
five of every race since the Spanish Grand Prix five long months ago. In spite
of his points cushion, the double-champion has re-iterated the need for Ferrari
to improve the car if he is to remain in charge of title proceedings; a rear
wing upgrade that was abandoned during practice at Singapore as it failed to
deliver the expected performance gains is something Maranello can ill-afford a
repeat of. Suzuka hasn’t been kind to the Italian squad in recent years either,
their last victory being back in 2004 courtesy of Michael Schumacher.
Whilst Alonso is fighting for his championship, teammate
Massa is potentially fighting for his F1 career. Sergio Perez’s move to McLaren
in place of the Mercedes-bound Hamilton theoretically boosted Massa’s chances
of being retained by Ferrari for an eighth consecutive season, but an
announcement has not been forthcoming as the team allegedly continues to
evaluate replacements in the form of Force India drivers Paul Di Resta and Nico
Hulkenberg. Thus, a top-six finish for Massa might just tip the balance in his
favour as Ferrari seek to defend third place in the constructors’ standings
from Lotus.
In their bid to overhaul Ferrari, Lotus are slated to
introduce their eagerly-anticipated version of the ‘double-DRS’ device
pioneered by Mercedes this weekend. Such an upgrade would go a long way to
rectifying the team’s performances in qualifying, which has been something of
an Achilles’ heel for the Enstone-based squad throughout the year. Raikkonen is
of course no stranger to victory at Suzuka, having been at the centre of the
incredible 2005 race in which the Finn charged to victory from 17th
on the grid. The effectiveness of the Lotus upgrades (if they are indeed
introduced here) will likely determine whether Raikkonen has any realistic
chance of remaining in the title fight.
On paper, Sauber ought to be another team in with a chance
of upsetting the front-runners. The car has tended to perform well when the
hard compound tyre has been in use (think Perez’s second place at Monza),
whilst the track has a fairly similar mix of corners to Spa, where the Swiss
cars lined up second and fourth on the grid. The team is running out of time if
they are to catch their rivals Mercedes in the constructors’, who may be
expected to struggle somewhat at this style of track. Schumacher, who has the
added handicap of a ten-place grid penalty for his shunt with Jean-Vergne at
Singapore, will therefore have to muster all the experience of his six Suzuka
victories to score points this weekend.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Alonso, 5. Perez,
6. Webber, 7. Grosjean, 8. Button (pen) 9. Massa, 10. Kobayashi
Race Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Alonso, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Button,
6. Perez, 7. Grosjean, 8. Kobayashi, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Rosberg
Hamilton has been on blistering form as of late, and now the
question of for whom he’ll be driving next year has been resolved he should be
fully focused upon ending his McLaren career on a high. I’ve therefore backed
the Brit to do the double, closely followed by Vettel on both Saturday and
Sunday. Alonso will find his way on the podium to minimise the damage caused to
his points lead, with Raikkonen just behind after a much-improved qualifying.
Perez will put in another eye-catching performance to finish sixth, just behind
future teammate Button who is facing a five-place gearbox penalty. Romain
Grosjean will have a sensible drive ahead of Kamui Kobayashi, who’ll be helped
along by the fervour of the home fans, with the two Nicos Hulkenberg and
Rosberg rounding out the points finishers. No sign of Webber or Massa – I sense
that a Ferrari front wing could well converge with a Red Bull rear tyre at the
Casio Triangle.
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