Monaco Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend sees the Formula One drivers return to action and take on the unique and challenging Monaco Grand Prix – the description ‘jewel in the crown’ may be somewhat hackneyed, but it is difficult to imagine F1 without Monaco and vice versa.

The race was first held in 1929 as a way for the Automobile Club de Monaco to gain equal status with the other racing clubs of Europe, and has been a continuous fixture on the F1 calendar since 1955. The circuit layout has barely changed in that time, with famous corners such as Sainte-Devote, the Loews hairpin and Tabac still more or less in their original form.

As well as being an anachronism in the safety-focused modern era, Monaco has somehow resisted the ‘Bernification’ of F1 – practice is still customarily held on a Thursday rather than on Friday, the track is the only one on the calendar which lacks ‘themed’ trackside advertising (where a single sponsor occupies one particular group of a circuit’s advertising hoardings), and the TV feed is the only one still produced locally rather than by Ecclestone’s FOM organisation.

The race itself is notorious for its lack of overtaking, even in the context of the Pirelli-DRS formula, making grid position more crucial in Monaco than anywhere else. Full of slow corners and with no real long straights to speak of, strong traction out of slow corners is the key to the best lap times, while the circuit gives the driver perhaps the best opportunity of the year to transcend the limits of his machinery.

The tyre allocation for the weekend consists of the super soft and soft compounds, with tyre wear – for once – not expected to be quite as influential in determining the race's outcome as it has been so far this year. Monaco will also be the first race of 2013 with only a single DRS zone, which is found along the start/finish straight on the approach to Sainte-Devote.

Tyres have dominated the agenda since the Spanish Grand Prix, with Pirelli immediately confirming that, on the basis that four pit-stops in a race is ‘too far’, that they would be hardening the tyre compounds from Canada onwards in a bid to reduce the amount of pit-stops as well as to help prevent the rear de-laminations that have been a worryingly regular occurrence as of late.

Understandably, this provoked outrage by Lotus, Ferrari and Force India, the three teams that would stand to lose out  most with such a change. Lotus team principal Eric Boullier likened Pirelli’s decision to widening the size of the goal in football, whilst Ferrari’s ‘Horse Whisperer’ column defended the virtues of four-stop strategies – pointing out that few people were complaining when Sebastian Vettel won at Barcelona in 2011 with four pit-stops.

Red Bull on the other hand were the most vocal supporters of change, believing that the tyre situation had been prevented them from exploiting the inherent speed advantage of their car. The FIA then intervened, stating that tyre changes could only be made on safety grounds, and that any further change would require unanimous approval from the teams. Pirelli are currently seeking consensus to introduce minor changes to the rear tyres, but it seems unlikely such an agreement will be forthcoming with certain teams having a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.

The debate is an interesting one, and you certainly have to feel a certain sympathy for Lotus, Ferrari and Force India for producing cars that deal with the tyre situation better than their rivals, even if, like me, you would prefer to see a return to more durable tyres and flat-out racing. Pirelli of course have their image to bear in mind – four-stop races and de-laminating tyres do not make for good PR. In fact, there’s no guarantee the Italian firm will even be around next year, with the FIA yet to offer them a contract to continue supplying tyres for 2014 and beyond.

The whole episode however highlights the folly of deliberately creating tyres that quickly degrade. A return to a tyre war would not only allow drivers to be on the limit for longer during races, but would prevent the ludicrous scenario whereby the competitive order of the top teams is determined by a single variable over which nobody but Pirelli has control.

The other major talking point has been the confirmation of Honda’s return as an engine supplier in 2015 with the McLaren team, the Japanese marque in particular citing the new turbo engine regulations coming into force for next season as an attractive technological proposition. People expecting a return to the kind of form McLaren enjoyed when they won four consecutive titles from 1988 to 1991 with Honda power had better temper their expectations, however.

Whilst a ‘works’ relationship with their engine supplier will no doubt be advantageous for McLaren, it shouldn’t be forgotten that, during the 2000s, Honda engines were considered average compared to the likes of BMW, Mercedes and Ferrari. Equally, if a development freeze similar to the one currently in force is introduced to save money, it will be impossible for any manufacturer to enjoy the same supremacy Honda did 25 years ago.

That said, Honda’s return is certainly good news for F1 and a strong endorsement of the upcoming formula. Whilst BMW have recently scotched rumours of a comeback to engine supply, hopefully other manufacturers will be encouraged by Honda’s example to join, or return to the fray – Toyota, Ford, VW-Audi and even Hyundai-Kia would all make valuable additions to the grid.

With benefit of the practice timesheets, Mercedes seem virtually certain to take pole position, if not lock out the front row, with Nico Rosberg going quickest in both Thursday sessions. The question is however to what extent tyre woes will slow he and teammate Lewis Hamilton down during the race, and if the Silver Arrows can take the win simply by holding up their competitors all the way to the chequered flag. It’s a big ‘if’, but if so, Rosberg has the chance of emulating his father Keke’s Monaco victory of 30 years ago.

Ferrari also look strong, and if Alonso can replicate his searing race pace of Barcelona, he could be in with a chance of taking the Prancing Horse’s first win in the Monegasque streets since 2001 and become the first driver to win at the principality for three different teams. Lotus also showed some eye-catching long-run pace in practice, even if their headline lap times were less impressive, making Kimi Raikkonen another threat for the win – particularly if he can once more make one less pit-stop than his rivals.

Red Bull meanwhile looked a bit out of sorts through the slow corners, lacking single-lap pace in particular which could severely hamper their chances of a strong race result with overtaking next to impossible. McLaren appeared once again to have made precious little progress since the last race, but since Jenson Button and Sergio Perez both tend to be quick at Monaco, solid points should be in the offing. Pastor Maldonado is another man to look out for as he seeks Williams’ first points of the season on a circuit at which he has always been strong.

Qualifying Prediction

1. Rosberg, 2. Hamilton, 3. Alonso, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Massa, 6. Grosjean, 7. Vettel, 8. Webber, 9. Button, 10. Maldonado

Race Prediction

1. Alonso, 2. Raikkonen, 3. Rosberg, 4. Massa, 5. Hamilton, 6. Webber, 7. Button, 8. Perez, 9. Maldonado, 10. Sutil

Despite Mercedes sewing up the front row, it will be a simple case of Alonso sticking right with the silver cars during the first stint, waiting for them to pit, hammering out a series of fast laps and emerging ahead after his first stop. Raikkonen will replicate the feat to take second, with Rosberg hanging on to third from Massa, who will jump Hamilton during the pit-stops.

Webber will have a steady run to sixth ahead of the McLaren duo, with Maldonado ending Williams’ barren run with a great drive to ninth and Sutil finally having some luck, taking the final point in tenth. Vettel on the other hand is overdue some bad luck and will fail to finish, as will Grosjean in a repeat of his practice contretemps with the Sainte-Devote barriers.