Formula One's four-week summer break is almost at an end, with the action getting back underway this weekend at the legendary Spa-Francorchamps circuit.
The Belgian venue, nestled in the heart of the Ardennes Forest, almost invariably ranks among each driver's two or three favourites on the calendar, and it's not hard to see why. Despite having been significantly shortened in 1981, Spa is still one of the fastest and most challenging tracks anywhere in the world - and drivers can really make all the difference at such fearsome corners as Eau Rouge, Pouhon and Blanchimont.
Overtaking tends to be relatively straightforward at Spa, although two DRS zones - one along the start/finish straight and the other on the Kemmel Straight approaching Les Combes - will make matters even easier. The tyre allocation for the weekend consists of the medium and hard compound tyres, though if current weather forecasts are to be believed, the intermediate or wet tyres may also be making an appearance.
Speculation regarding the state of the driver market has been rife throughout the summer break, and this weekend it seems as if the first piece of the puzzle may finally slot into place. Kimi Raikkonen's manager Steve Robertson effectively ruled out a move to Red Bull for the "Iceman", paving the way for Toro Rosso driver Daniel Ricciardo to make the step up to the reigning champion team in place of the soon-to-retire Mark Webber.
According to some sources however, Red Bull aren't ready to throw in the towel in the fight for Raikkonen's services yet, with one final offer reportedly to be made to the Finn this weekend. If true, this seems to smack of desperation on the part of Red Bull, who, in my opinion, would be better off going for the younger, more malleable Ricciardo in any case.
Speculation has also escalated in recent days that Raikkonen is poised to return to Ferrari, for whom he won the title in 2007, but this seems unlikely when you consider the terms on which the Finn left Ferrari at the end of the 2009 season - in order to get Fernando Alonso in their car a year sooner, the team terminated Raikkonen's contract a year early and paid him handsomely to remain on the sidelines.
Were Ferrari to take Raikkonen back in place of the ailing Massa, it would represent a significant loss of face for the team, in particular for Ferrari President Luca di Montezemelo. And, even if that obstacle could be overcome, would Raikkonen really want to play second fiddle to Alonso in a team clearly galvanised around the Spaniard?
The smart money thus remains on Raikkonen - a four-time winner at Spa - remaining at Lotus next season. But, while their driver technically remains a free agent, it's imperative that the Enstone outfit are able to perform well in order to convince Raikkonen they can be a championship-winning force.
On the other side of the Lotus garage, Romain Grosjean returns to the scene of his infamous first corner shunt last year that saw the Frenchman slapped with a one-race ban. While Grosjean's prospects of being retained for next season have significantly improved in light of his pace at the last two races, any incident at Spa is likely to bring memories of 2012 flooding back and put his drive in renewed doubt.
Though Sebastian Vettel took a convincing victory at Spa two years ago, the Belgian track isn't generally considered a happy hunting ground for the German or the Red Bull team. That makes this weekend's race, as well as the next one at Monza, which has a similar character to Spa, a crucial opportunity for Vettel's rivals to make up precious ground in the title race.
Arguably, his emphatic win last time out at Hungary makes Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton the biggest threat to Vettel, despite the Brit being 48 points in arrears of the reigning champion in the standings. With the W04 seemingly at home on the revised Pirelli tyres at the Hungaroring, it will be fascinating to see how the car goes around a circuit which offers an altogether different challenge.
Alonso meanwhile will be hoping that Ferrari is able to perform better at Spa following a rather indifferent performance at Hungary which saw the two-time champion slip to third in the championship behind Raikkonen. A strong result is not only imperative to claw back some of the lost ground to Vettel, but also to show that the Scuderia can be a genuine title contender in the latter half of the year.
Following two successive races with both cars in the points for his McLaren, Jenson Button will no doubt be optimistic of his chances of a strong result in Belgium, even if a repeat of his win from last year remains well out of reach. The Woking team has now closed to within two points of Force India in the fight for fifth in the constructors' standings, and it would surely be a great morale booster for McLaren to take that place this weekend.
With the driver market set to fall into place quickly once Raikkonen's future has been determined, the next few races will be pivotal for those looking for a step up to a top team - principally Nico Hulkenberg, Paul di Resta and Adrian Sutil - to show what they are capable of. What better place to do exactly that than at a proper drivers' circuit such as Spa?
Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Rosberg, 4. Webber, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Alonso, 7. Grosjean, 8. Massa, 9. Sutil, 10. Ricciardo
Race Prediction
1. Raikkonen, 2. Hamilton, 3. Vettel, 4. Alonso, 5. Grosjean, 6. Rosberg, 7. Button, 8. Perez, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Hulkenberg
After a couple of near misses, Spa virtuoso Raikkonen will finally take his second win of the season and take a chunk out of Vettel's points lead, with pole-sitter Hamilton keeping his title hopes alive with second place. Nico Rosberg meanwhile will show solid qualifying pace once more but will lose places to Alonso and a sensible Grosjean during the race.
Meanwhile, McLaren will once again end up with both cars in the points, with Button and Perez crossing the line within a couple of seconds of one another and Force India struggling to score once again. Completing the top ten will be Ricciardo, buoyed by a likely promotion to Red Bull, and Hulkenberg, who will squeeze every last tenth out of his Sauber in a bid to impress Ferrari and Lotus.
No comments:
Post a Comment