22 November 2013

Brazilian Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

This weekend's race at the legendary Interlagos circuit in the Brazilian city of Sao Paulo will bring down the curtain on what has been a memorable, if not always thrilling season of Grand Prix racing.

After a string of fairly tame races in which Sebastian Vettel has utterly crushed his adversaries, Formula One fans will be looking to Interlagos, which has a history of throwing up unpredictable results, to provide a sorely needed dramatic finale to the 2013 season.

Many a title has been decided at Interlagos - not least of all last year, when Vettel fought his way through the pack to secure the points needed for his third title crown after an early spin. Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso also know what it's like to win titles in Brazil, as does Felipe Massa - even if it was only for 30 seconds for the undoubted home crowd hero at that unforgettable finale five years ago.

The track itself is a far cry from the series of 'Tilkedromes' F1 has visited in recent months, featuring fast, flowing corners and myriad overtaking opportunities. Despite having been shortened from eight to 4.3 kilometres, Interlagos remains one of the most physically demanding circuits for the drivers; its bumpy nature and high altitude also make it one of the more testing races on the calendar for the cars.

Pirelli have opted for the same tyre allocation seen a week ago in Texas - the medium and hard compounds - as well as some experimental rubber for next year to be used in practice. However, the weather forecast firmly suggests that the intermediate and wet tyres will be getting a fair bit of mileage this weekend, and a long overdue first wet race of the year would certainly do much to spice up the action.

After all, it's probably only the weather that will be able to stand between Vettel and a ninth consecutive win that would see him match Alberto Ascari's 60-year-old record and Michael Schumacher's benchmark of 13 wins in a season, set in 2004. Vettel was just untouchable at Austin, and although the Interlagos circuit is quite a different kettle of fish, the Red Bull's degree of superiority over the rest will undoubtedly tell in dry conditions.

In the wet, however, all bets would be off - and there is no shortage of drivers who will have their eye on the top step of the podium should the heavens open on Sunday morning. Chief among them will be a certain Mark Webber, who will be participating in his 215th and final Grand Prix on Sunday.

His career started with a fairytale result at Melbourne in 2002, when he finished an improbable fifth place for Minardi in a race of extreme attrition, so why can't it end with a fairytale victory too? A 10th and final victory would be a fitting tribute to the career to perhaps the most popular man in the paddock in recent years - his honesty, dry sense of humour and integrity will be sorely missed.

Equally fitting would be for Romain Grosjean to take the first win of his career, which would be the icing on the cake of what has been a superb latter half of the season for the Frenchman. This time a year ago, Grosjean's future was looking decidedly uncertain, but after some tremendous performances, most notably his flawless run to second place a week ago, he is rightly being hailed as a likely future world champion.

Fernando Alonso won't have a prayer of winning the race without the help of the weather gods, but if the rain does indeed arrive he'll be eager to erase the memories of a fairly dismal run of form, equally laying down a marker for incoming teammate Kimi Raikkonen. Lewis Hamilton meanwhile, having won only the one race at Hungary to Nico Rosberg's two, will be determined to deploy his wet weather skills to even the score at Mercedes.

Not only that, but positions in both the drivers' and constructors' tables are still up for grabs. Just six points separate Hamilton and Webber in the battle for third place behind Vettel and Alonso, who is now safe in second, whilst the runner-up spot in the constructors' - and all the cash that comes with it - is still just about within reach for Ferrari, who lie 15 points adrift of Mercedes, as well as Lotus, who are a further 18 points down.

Looking further down the order, there are several men in the midfield fighting for their careers as the driver market continues to take shape. With the Quantum money still not forthcoming at Lotus, it appears the well-heeled Pastor Maldonado is destined for the vacant seat alongside Grosjean at Enstone next season instead of Nico Hulkenberg, who is now believed to be closing on a deal to return to Force India.

With Adrian Sutil dropping a particularly unsubtle hint that he has already signed a fresh deal to remain at Force India next season, that could leave Paul Di Resta in the cold. The Scot has been linked with an IndyCar drive, particularly as cousin and four-time series champion Dario Franchitti has recently been forced to retire from injury, but nonetheless insists his main focus is on remaining in F1.

If Force India do indeed plump for an all-German line up of Hulkenberg and Sutil, that will leave little option for Sergio Perez, who was recently dumped by McLaren in favour of newcomer Kevin Magnussen, but to return to Sauber. His team-mate, depending on all sorts of financial complexities, would either be fellow Mexican Esteban Gutierrez, who looks to have done enough to warrant a second year subject to funding, or Russian novice Sergey Sirotkin - though paddock gossip suggests this deal may have now fallen through.

Brazil is also the last chance for Caterham to wrest back 10th place in the constructors' from arch-rivals Marussia, just as they did this time last year in a drama-filled wet finale at Interlagos. To do so, either Charles Pic or Giedo van der Garde must finish in 13th place, which would be virtually impossible without some major assistance from the weather.

Were either to manage the feat, however, it would do their chances of staying with the team next year no end of good, particularly as Heikki Kovalainen continues to advertise his services at the wheel of the second Lotus this weekend. Over at Marussia, the signs are pointing to an unchanged line-up now that, Magnussen, who had been thought of as a potential replacement for Max Chilton, has been given the nod at McLaren.

Qualifying Predictions
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Grosjean, 4. Hamilton, 5. Rosberg, 6. Hulkenberg, 7. Massa, 8. Alonso, 9. Kovalainen, 10. Bottas

Race Predictions
1. Grosjean, 2. Alonso, 3. Hamilton, 4. Hulkenberg, 5. Massa, 6. Kovalainen, 7. Button, 8. Sutil, 9. Bottas, 10. Vergne

After weeks of boring predictions, I've decided that, this weekend, rain is going to wreak carnage, hence my rather left-field prediction. After both Red Bulls collide with each other whilst dicing for the lead, Grosjean will come through to take a popular first win, with Alonso and Hamilton joining the Frenchman on the podium. Hulkenberg will star once again, just missing out on his first podium finish, with Massa coming home fifth in his final outing for Ferrari.

Kovalainen will bank a very handy 8 points for Lotus to go with Grosjean's bumper haul of 25, with Jenson Button rounding off a miserable season with an steady run to seventh. The remaining points finishers will be made up of Sutil, Bottas and Vergne, with numerous other casualties during the race including Rosberg, Perez, Maldonado, Di Resta and Gutierrez. Well, I can hope, can't I?

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