Belgian Grand Prix 2011 – Qualifying Report

Sebastian Vettel returned from Formula One's summer break in the finest possible fashion by attaining yet another pole position at the legendary Spa-Francorchamps circuit. The drying track surface threw up a fairly unconventional starting order, but amidst the confusion, Vettel's lap was good enough to keep his Red Bull team's perfect 2011 qualifying record intact. Lewis Hamilton qualified half a second adrift of Vettel in second place, ahead of Mark Webber and Felipe Massa.

Q1   

The intermediate was the tyre of choice in Q1, where a rain shower had suitably dampened the track. Things got off to a dramatic start when Michael Schumacher's Mercedes shed a wheel on the run down to Rivage corner on his initial out-lap, pitching the silver car into the barriers and consigning the seven-time champion to the back of the grid. Once things got away in earnest, the ever-drying track meant that the times kept tumbling. Hamilton set a 2'09.5 early on for McLaren to top the timesheets, before the Red Bull pairing began to trade fastest times: Vettel went fastest on a 2'07.7, before losing P1 to teammate Webber whose lap was eight tenths of a second quicker. Vettel then proceeded to re-take the upper hand with a 2'06.6, before Webber raised the bar by over two seconds with a 2'04.5. Hamilton then disrupted this intra-team battle by posting a 2'04.2, but his reign was cut short by his teammate Jenson Button as he went three tenths faster. Hamilton responded with a 2'03.0, before Button set one final lap that would see him end the session on top – a 2'01.8, over ten seconds faster than his very first lap of the session. Things weren't going quite so smoothly for F1's third Brit as a spin at the Bus Stop chicane meant that Paul Di Resta was sat on the 'bubble' in 17^th position during the final minutes of the session. Believing their man to be safe, his Force India team ordered him to pit, but failed to recognise the threat posed by Heikki Kovalainen, who snatched the final ticket to Q2 at the eleventh hour. This meant Di Resta was out, along with the stricken Schumacher and the remaining new-team cars.

Eliminated – Paul Di Resta (Force India), Jarno Trulli (Lotus), Timo Glock (Virgin), Jerome D'Ambrosio (Virgin), Vitantonio Liuzzi (Hispania), Daniel Ricciardo (Hispania), Michael Schumacher (Mercedes)

Q2

A brief sprinkle of rain moistened the track once more in between the two sessions, meaning the whole field would again have to use the intermediate tyre. Ferrari's Fernando Alonso opened up the going for the session with a 2'09.2, but was soon beaten by a full two seconds by Button, a man very much at home in such conditions. Hamilton and Webber both failed to best the Hungarian GP winner's time, but Vettel was able to eke out an extra tenth to take the top spot, a position he would hold until the red flags were shown with seven minutes left on the clock. The reason the session was stopped was a flurry of debris left on the track by Adrian Sutil, who after posting the fifth fastest time proceeded to run his Force India on to the slippery kerbs on the exit of Eau Rouge at the beginning of his next attempt. The car span straight into the barriers as a result, denying Sutil the chance to compete any further in the session and further compounding a disappointing afternoon for Force India. When the session got underway once more, the track had dried even more, allowing Toro Rosso driver Sebastien Buemi to briefly take first, though he was promptly dispatched from such a heady position by a succession of fast times from Alonso, Button, Webber, Vettel and Hamilton, whose lap at one point appeared to be wrecked by traffic. The Briton didn't let this setback stop him though, as he muscled his way past the slower Williams of Pastor Maldonado at the Bus Stop en route to setting the fastest time of 2'02.8. The Venezuelan driver missed the Q3 cut as a consequence, prompting the incensed rookie to make an ill-judged swipe at Hamilton's McLaren as he drew alongside after the La Source hairpin. Whether he'll receive a penalty for his outburst is yet to be seen. While Hamilton soared into Q3, the other McLaren of Button surprisingly failed to make the grade as his team, mistakenly as it turned out, instructed him to return to the pits with several minutes still to run. He'll begin tomorrow's race from a lowly 13^th on the grid.

Eliminated – Sebastien Buemi (Toro Rosso), Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber), Jenson Button (McLaren), Rubens Barrichello (Williams), Adrian Sutil (Force India), Pastor Maldonado (Williams), Heikki Kovalainen (Lotus)

Q3

By this time, the track had dried sufficiently for the remaining ten runners to equip dry tyres, with everybody naturally choosing the soft compound over the slower, more durable medium compound. Alonso was the first heavy-hitter to set a time, his 1'54.6 demonstrating the performance differential between a dry and wet track. Webber then bettered the Spaniard's time by eight tenths, and looked a strong bet for pole position for much of the session with a succession of fastest times, culminating in a 1'49.4. With a few minutes to go though, Vettel suddenly seized the advantage by going two tenths faster than the Australian. Hamilton was then able to go a half a second faster than Vettel, seemingly endangering the Red Bull monopoly on pole position, but as the chequered flag fell the German ace pulled a further half-second out of the bag to secure the twenty-fourth pole position of his career. Hamilton was thus forced to settle for second, whilst Webber failed to improve on his earlier time which ended up being only good enough for third. Felipe Massa unexpectedly outqualified teammate Alonso, who mysteriously could only muster eighth on the grid. Between the two Ferraris on the grid therefore lie Nico Rosberg for Mercedes, Jaime Alguersauri's Toro Rosso after an exceptional performance from the youngster and Bruno Senna's Renault, who replaces Nick Heidfeld in the seat for this event and the next. Perez along with Vitaly Petrov in the other Renault rounds out the top ten.

Top Ten – Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull), Lewis Hamilton (McLaren), Mark Webber (Red Bull), Felipe Massa (Ferrari), Nico Rosberg (Mercedes), Jaime Alguersauri (Toro Rosso), Bruno Senna (Renault), Fernando Alonso (Ferrari), Sergio Perez (Sauber), Vitaly Petrov (Renault)

My Prediction

Despite the rain in today's qualifying session, tomorrow's race reportedly is likely to be dry, at least until the closing stages. Therefore it's tricky to see how any of his opponents are to deny Vettel his seventh win of the season:

1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Alonso, 5. Massa, 6. Rosberg, 7. Button, 8. Perez, 9. Petrov, 10. Kobayashi

Hamilton and Webber will hold station to the respective remaining podium finishes, whilst Alonso will move up to fourth ahead of teammate Massa. Rosberg will continue his usual habit of finishing lower than he started, whilst Alguersauri and Senna's excitement at starting so high up the grid will translate into a collision between the pair. This will allow Button to take seventh, ahead of Perez, Petrov and the ever-consistent Kobayashi.

The unpredictability of the weather in the Ardenne forest means anything at all could happen – Button could stage another miraculous comeback should the rain come down earlier and harder than anticipated, whilst Schumacher will undoubtedly be doing a rain dance in order for him to have the best possible chance of a good result at the very circuit where he made his sensational debut twenty years ago. Don't forget to come back here tomorrow to read all about what promises to be another exciting grand prix.