The Sensible Season

For the Formula One circus, the summer break is often a time when speculation about who's heading where for next season is rife. Like last year however, Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes are all but certain to retain their current drivers, whilst many of the midfield teams are also seemingly content with their line-ups. This means the 'Silly Season' is once more proving to be something of a damp squib, although there are still question marks hanging over certain teams and drivers as to their plans for 2012 and beyond.

A lot rides on whether Robert Kubica can recover from his injuries in time to re-take his rightful place at Renault next season. If not, then it's possible that Nick Heidfeld could stay on alongside the contracted Vitaly Petrov, but team principal Eric Bouiller has not done a particularly brilliant job in concealing his disappointment with the experienced German's performances thus far. Rumours are abound that as early as the Singapore Grand Prix, Heidfeld could be replaced by GP2 championship leader Romain Grosjean, who replaced the disgraced Nelson Piquet Jr. at Renault two years ago. He failed to make an impression then, leading to his replacement by Petrov, but his decimation of several fancied runners in GP2 this year would appear to have earned him a second chance.

If Kubica cannot return, expect Grosjean to slot in beside Petrov for next year unless Heidfeld seriously raises his game. In fact, should Petrov fail to impress for the remainder of the year, it's far from inconceivable that Grosjean could take the Russian's seat in the event that Kubica does return. Looking down the grid however, there are precious few seats for either Heidfeld or Petrov to occupy should they be shown the boot at Renault. Sauber recently confirmed that both Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez would remain on their driving strength for at least another year, whilst over at Force India, both Adrian Sutil and Paul Di Resta have probably done just about enough to warrant their retention by the team, even if team owner Vijay Mallya has admitted he is in no rush to announce as much.

The situation at Williams is less certain. Whilst it appears unlikely that the Grove-based outfit would drop Pastor Maldonado due to the amount of financial backing he brings, Rubens Barrichello's seat could be under threat. The Brazilian is raring to go for a twentieth successive F1 campaign, but his recent criticism of the team combined with his reported $5m annual pay packet could make recruiting another young gun a more attractive option. Many other talented GP2 drivers, including Giedo Van Der Garde, Jules Bianchi, Charles Pic and Sam Bird, are all desperate for an F1 chance next year – taking one of them on would certainly help balance the books financially, but continuity may be what the beleaguered Williams team needs as it searches to regain its lost momentum.

Toro Rosso is another team whose drivers appear less than secure, particularly as its raison d'être is to give Red Bull Junior Team members a point of entry to F1. The scheme's latest hopeful, Daniel Ricciardo, is already turning heads at Hispania and seems set to join the Faenza-based team next year. That means that either Sebastien Buemi or Jaime Alguersauri is going to have to make way, and the jury is still out as to which one. The former has scored two more points than the latter, though Alguersauri has featured in the points four times in the last five races. Thus, much depends on the final eight races for the pair, particularly as the only other possible outlets for either are likely to be among the bottom three teams.

Lotus is one such outlet; though there has been talk of the team renewing Jarno Trulli's contract, his motivation to continue battling it out with the Virgins and Hispanias at the rear of the grid is questionable. Should the popular Italian decide to call it a day, that would free up a space for a driver such as Heidfeld or Buemi to measure themselves against the highly-rated Heikki Kovalainen at a team which may not be too far away from becoming a solid midfield contender. Jerome D'Ambrosio's seat at Virgin could also be up for grabs come season's end, but it has to be said that the Anglo-Russian team's prospects are decidedly gloomier than those of Lotus. Quite why a driver of Timo Glock's calibre has committed himself there for another three seasons is beyond this writer.

Vitantonio Liuzzi seems set to stay on at Hispania, though there should be a vacancy alongside him next year unless Ricciardo's scheduled departure to Toro Rosso is delayed by extraordinary performances from both Buemi and Alguersauri in the latter half of this year. It's anybody's guess as to who may end up filling the young Australian's seat, particularly with the likes of Nico Hulkenberg, Bruno Senna and Lucas Di Grassi all waiting patiently in the wings for a reprieve.

Of course, the main reason why there looks to be such little driver movement this year is the fact that all the championship's big-hitters are going nowhere. However, 2013 could provide us with a real shuffle of the deck: Michael Schumacher and Mark Webber look set for retirement, whilst Felipe Massa's Ferrari contract is unlikely to be extended unless he can markedly improve his form. This will give opportunities to highly-rated youngsters such as Kobayashi, Perez, Di Resta and Ricciardo to take their places, in turn creating a number of gaps among the midfield teams that would require filling too. Such a scenario occurred both in 2006-07 and 2009-10 as a result of several big names either moving teams or leaving the sport altogether.

What would also add further spice to the driver market, as it did in 2009-10, would be more slots on the grid. The rules cater for up to thirteen teams, yet at present we have only twelve. With Epsilon Euskadi, Stefan GP and Durango all having been rejected last year, surely the FIA should invite more applications to fill the void. An extra two grid slots could be the difference between a potential world champion getting a chance to prove themselves and not, and perhaps more to the point, any prospective entrant is unlikely to do much worse than Hispania managed last year.