As per last year, it will be the soft and super-soft tyre compounds
that will be available this weekend, while the rules regarding DRS are also
unchanged: during practice and qualifying, the system will be unusable through
the tunnel section, whilst the DRS zone will again be the start/finish straight
on the approach to the first corner of Sainte-Devote. Even with DRS and tyre degradation however,
passing remains next to impossible at Monaco, as evidenced by Sebastian Vettel
holding off the marauding Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button on extremely aged
tyres en route to a win at the principality last year.
Determining who will be in
contention in this year's event, or indeed any F1 race this year it seems, has become nigh on impossible. In fact,
Pirelli have been accused in some quarters of creating an ‘impossible challenge’
for the F1 teams this season, and Mark Webber is also on record as saying he
thinks that too much variety in terms of winning drivers will turn off the
fans. Whilst I still maintain that tyre performance is still having too much
bearing on who’s hot and who’s not, having many different winners is certainly
no bad thing – remember having eleven
different winners back in the roller-coaster season that was 1982?
Someone, somewhere, undoubtedly made a tidy sum two weeks
ago with odds for a Pastor Maldonado victory said to be in the region of 500/1.
Heading into Monaco, some bookmakers are offering as little as 10/1 for the Venezuelan
to make it two in a row at a circuit for which he justifiably has a certain fondness: he
was on course for his first career points last season before being bungled into
the barriers by a certain Lewis Hamilton, and has won there both in GP2 and
Formula Renault 3.5. A second successive win is certainly a long shot, more so
than the bookies would have you believe, but if the Williams can perform
equally well another visit to the podium seems a plausible outcome.
Maldonado’s success has inevitably put pressure on his
teammate Bruno Senna, with rumours already circulating that Williams are preparing
to slot in their current reserve Valtteri Bottas alongside Maldonado for 2013.
This seems somewhat premature, particularly as Senna has already banked two
excellent finishes at Malaysia (sixth) and China (seventh), but admittedly he
has tended to qualify considerably further down the grid that F1’s most recent
race-winner. The Brazilian nonetheless has also won around the Monegasque streets in GP2, so now would be as good a time as any to prove he can match Maldonado.
The other star of Catalunya was Lewis Hamilton. The Brit, who after being excluded from qualifying charged through the field with a two-stop
strategy to take a commendable eighth place, will be a threat to take an overdue first win of the year. More so than any
other track, qualifying is the key, so if the Brit can bag a third pole
position of the season, half the battle is won. The second McLaren of Jenson
Button has had two lacklustre races on the trot, and seems to be struggling to
achieve the perfect balance without which he has recently proved unable to
fulfil his or the car’s potential. A good result this weekend is required to
get a season that started so brilliantly at Melbourne back on track.
Red Bull have taken the last two wins at Monaco, but then
again so they had at Catalunya where Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber disappointingly
finished sixth and eleventh respectively. It appeared at Bahrain that normal
service had been resumed, but as with every other team Red Bull still have a
long way to go when it comes to understanding the nuances of the Pirelli tyres.
Nico Rosberg’s breakthrough success at China also appears to have been
something of a false dawn, with the Mercedes still struggling with tyre wear
more than most. Michael Schumacher will also be greatly hindered by a
five-place grid penalty as a result of slamming into the back of Senna’s car
last time out.
Fernando Alonso can never be ruled out, and considering how
close the Spaniard came to winning at perhaps the most aero-dependent track of
the year, the Ferrari appears to have made a genuine step forward. Well, at
least one of them had – Felipe Massa’s performance last time out was about as
far away from that of Alonso as it’s ever been. It seems that the team is
finally losing patience, with Ferrari president Luca di Montezemelo expecting a
‘change of gear’ this weekend from the Brazilian.
Both Sauber drivers have been mooted as potential replacements for Massa, and not without good reason. Perez was on course to qualify strongly at
Monaco last year before his heavy qualifying shunt, whilst Kobayashi took a
career-best finish of fifth, which he incidentally matched two weeks ago at
Catalunya. Seeing either of them on the podium would come as no real surprise,
whilst the Lotus team appear capable of making it six winning
teams in as many races. Kimi Raikkonen is no stranger to winning around the
streets of Monaco, having done so back in 2005, whilst Romain Grosjean has won
here in GP2. The Lotus car has had genuine race-winning pace for the last two
races, and there’s no reason why that should be about to change.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Alonso, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Grosjean, 5. Vettel,
6. Maldonado, 7. Button, 8. Webber, 9. Perez, 10. Rosberg
Race Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Alonso, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Vettel, 5.
Grosjean, 6. Button, 7. Maldonado, 8. Perez, 9. Rosberg, 10. Kobayashi
Track position is king at Monaco, making the pole-sitter a
strong bet for victory. According to that logic, Hamilton will do the double,
with Alonso hot on his heels. Raikkonen will be in with a shout, but the Lotus
has so far raced better than it has qualified, meaning a win is unlikely for
the Finn. Vettel may be able to leapfrog Grosjean during the stops, but the Red
Bull with the exception of Bahrain hasn’t been excellent in a single lap so far
this season. Button will do likewise with Maldonado, but his qualifying
performances have been consistently lacking in comparison to Hamilton,
particularly considering the narrow spread in performance among the top
runners. Perez and Kobayashi will finish either side of Rosberg, whose car
wouldn’t appear to be particularly suited to this circuit, with Webber’s bad
luck continuing with a second successive non-score following a disappointing
Saturday.
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