With its mixture of fast and
medium-speed corners, Catalunya provides the most rigorous test of aerodynamic
efficiency on the calendar, meaning any shortcomings in the aero department
will be brutally exposed. What’s more, the first appearance of the season of
Pirelli’s hard tyre compound alongside the soft is likely to make excessive
tyre wear less of an issue that it has been so far. Both of these factors combined
with a layout where overtaking has traditionally been tricky at best stand to
give us our best idea yet of who’s where.
Perhaps the team with most to gain
from last week’s in-season test at Mugello was Ferrari, co-incidentally the most
vocal proponent of the test. The Italian team trialled a raft of upgrades
including new exhausts and revised rear bodywork, but the impact was less than
had been hoped for. Ferrari however insists that there are more modifications
set to be debuted today during practice as well as further updates in the
pipeline for Canada and Valencia, but a podium finish at home for Fernando
Alonso still seems some way off even if the scarlet cars should be closer to
the pace than they have been up to now.
Based on the last race alone,
you’d be hard-pressed to bet against Red Bull to make it two victories on the
bounce. The team has won at Catalunya during each of the last two years with both
Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber, and the former looked as if he had recaptured
his title-winning form as he controlled the race at Bahrain throughout
notwithstanding the late challenge from Kimi Raikkonen’s Lotus. Webber on the
other hand racked up a distant, fourth successive fourth place finish, upon
which he’ll soon need to improve to keep his teammate in his sights as far as
points are concerned. The recent rumour that Ferrari have approached Webber as
a potential teammate for Alonso next season can nonetheless be viewed as a compliment,
even if it may be a tad wide of the mark in reality.
McLaren meanwhile have arguably
failed to capitalise on their strong start to their season. Lewis Hamilton’s early pole positions at
Melbourne and Malaysia already seem some time ago now, particularly after a
disappointing outing at Bahrain whereupon Hamilton finished a lowly eighth
place following two botched pit-stops and Jenson Button retired from a hardly
awe-inspiring seventh place after a near-simultaneous differential and exhaust
failure. The British squad will use the new, higher nose design for this race
seen at the Mugello test in order to try and revive their fortunes for this
race, although the team somewhat curiously elected to use solely its test
drivers Gary Paffett and Oliver Turvey at the test – whether this will prove a
disadvantage to Hamilton and Button remains to be seen.
Lotus is the only team that can
realistically keep the trend of different winning teams alive. Both Raikkonen
and teammate Romain Grosjean performed near-flawlessly at Bahrain, and both
should theoretically be in the hunt for another podium finish this time around.
It’s worth noting that Grosjean was the
fastest man across the three days at Mugello, though the Enstone-based team can
expect a larger degree of opposition than it had last time around with tyre
wear being less crucial. Mercedes on the other hand should benefit from this
situation, but the layout of the Catalunya circuit is rather different to that
of Shanghai were the Silver Arrows were dominant. The car’s performance at
Bahrain, where Nico Rosberg finished fifth, can probably be interpreted as a
more realistic representation of the team’s performance level, the team along
with Lotus and Red Bull having only trialled very minor updates at the Mugello
test.
One of the biggest talking points
this week has been Michael Schumacher’s criticisms of the Pirelli tyres; namely
that tyre management now plays too big a part in deciding the outcome of races
as drivers are unable to push to the maximum in order to preserve their rubber.
It’s easy to overlook these comments as the petulant grumblings of a man who
virtually had tyres designed specifically for his driving style by Bridgestone back
during the early 2000s. However, he does have a point, and there is an argument
to say that rapidly degrading tyres are, whilst entertaining, contrary to the
prevailing ethos in F1 of vorsprung durch technik. I appreciate I may be in a minority on this, but I still yearn for
the days of the good ole’ fashioned tyre war, where the drivers could drive balls-out for the entire race distance.
Of the midfield teams, Force
India and Williams made the largest changes at Mugello with revised exhaust
layouts, although the Sauber team (complete with Chelsea FC decals for this
weekend) still looks the pick of the mid-field bunch. Even so, points for any
of the teams outside the new ‘big five’ will in all likelihood depend on
misfortunes befalling the drivers of these teams, particularly since the updates
Ferrari have brought to the table should make Felipe Massa a more competitive proposition.
Qualifying Prediction:
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3.
Webber, 4. Button, 5. Rosberg, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Grosjean, 9.
Schumacher, 10. Maldonado
Race Prediction:
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Raikkonen,
4. Hamilton, 5. Alonso, 6. Button, 7. Grosjean, 8. Rosberg, 9. Massa, 10. Perez
The Red Bull car has suited
Catalunya perfectly in the past, and the evidence suggests things will be no
different this time around. That’s why I have no choice but to predict another
lights-to-flag performance from Vettel, with Webber some distance behind.
Hamilton will qualifying strongly as usual, but his race pace seemed inferior
to that of Red Bull and Lotus at Bahrain even without his pit-lane dramas. Therefore
I’m forecasting a second successive podium for Raikkonen, albeit with Grosjean
further behind as he struggles to pass Alonso and Button on a track where
overtaking has always been a challenge. Something tells me Mercedes will be the
least competitive of the top teams in race trim, leaving Rosberg eighth and
Schumacher outside the points, with Ferrari driver Massa and Ferrari
driver-elect Perez rounding out the top ten.
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