The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve perhaps more so than any other circuit on the Formula One calendar has a habit of serving up fantastic races. Jenson Button's incredible last-to-first win last year will remain firmly etched in the minds of motor racing aficionados for years to come, the Brit's triumph being just the latest in a long series of memorable thrillers we've been treated to since Villeneuve himself won upon F1's first visit to the circuit back in 1978.
The layout of the circuit, situated on the man-made Île Notre Dame in the middle of the St. Lawrence river, consists mostly of long straights and slow to medium-speed corners. The relatively small amount of run-off lends the venue a street circuit feel, whilst also ensuring an appearance from the Safety Car is a probability rather than a mere possibility. Rain can often be a feature too, which contributes to the unpredictable action seen on the circuit still further - barring a repeat of last year's deluge which made the event the longest in F1 history, the two softest tyre compounds will be in use this weekend. Unlike last year's race, there will be just a single DRS zone which will be located along the straight preceding the final chicane.
One team you can expect to come to the fore this weekend is Mercedes. On paper, the circuit should suit the Silver Arrows perfectly: their 'double-DRS' system will be a big advantage along the long straights of Montreal much as it was at Shanghai, particularly so in qualifying, and the comparatively cool temperatures, which also contributed to Nico Rosberg's victory in China, will also aid proceedings. The team's form at Monaco furthermore suggests the car possesses strong traction out of slow corners, a must for being in contention in Canada.
What's more, Montreal is a circuit where Michael Schumacher has a particularly formidable record. The German has taken seven victories there over the years, and there's every chance he could add an eighth this weekend. He was the fastest man in Q3 at Monaco, another track at which he has excelled in the past, and if not for his indiscretion with Bruno Senna at Catalunya he would have started from pole position. Remove his loss of oil pressure from the equation as well, and Schumacher may well have notched up win number 92 by now. Nico Rosberg is on strong form too, and the fact he's scored the most points of anybody in the last four races means he's a definite contender to become our first multiple winner of the season.
Conversely, Montreal is considered the 'bogey' circuit for Red Bull. Besides the yet-to-be-completed Austin circuit, the track is the only one on this year's calendar at which the Anglo-Austrian outfit is yet to win; the nature of this season nonetheless gives the team their best ever chance of breaking their duck. Mark Webber's confidence will be riding high following his Monaco victory, so it could well be the Australian who takes honours if the car is up to task. Sebastian Vettel meanwhile will be eager to re-assert his authority over his teammate, particularly as the pair currently stand level in the championship standings.
Both are three points adrift of championship leader Fernando Alonso, whose supreme consistency has kept him very much in the hunt even at the wheel of a car that appears to remain only fifth in the current pecking order. Further updates to the Ferrari for this weekend will only make Alonso even more of a threat in theory, but their effect on the Italian team's competitiveness will only become clear after Friday's practice sessions. Felipe Massa enjoyed by far his most convincing drive of the year at Monaco with a sixth place finish, but the Brazilian has to consistently replicate that level of performance to maintain any hope of being retained by Ferrari.
Lewis Hamilton meanwhile heads to the scene of his first ever F1 win five years ago in search of that illusive first win of 2012. He has easily had the measure of teammate Jenson Button since Bahrain, and the straight-line speed of the McLaren should mean he's very much in contention for a third Montreal victory. Button on the other hand has scarcely looked like the same driver that triumphed in Melbourne so convincingly just a couple of months ago. His race at Monaco may have been ruined by getting stuck behind Heikki Kovalainen's Caterham, but his dismal showing in qualifying was ultimately responsible for that mishap. Button runs the risk of being left behind in the title battle, as he now sits seventh having scored only two points in three races. Getting on top of his car's setup early on at Montreal, something he has been having difficulty in doing recently, will be the key to turning this recent form around.
We didn't get to see much of Lotus at Monaco, with Romain Grosjean getting spun out of contention the first time through Sainte-Devote and Kimi Raikkonen's weekend ultimately being compromised by limited practice running. That makes it hard to predict how the black-and-gold cars shall fare at Canada, though the team's relatively strong showing at Shanghai bodes well. Sauber are once again shaping up to be a competitive proposition, even if the races of both Sergio Perez and Kamui Kobayashi were ruined during qualifying and the first corner respectively at Monaco, whilst it remains to be seen whether Williams can re-capture the pace that took Pastor Maldonado to victory at Catalunya. Wet weather would undoubtedly come as a blessing for Williams and Sauber as well and Force India and Toro Rosso, both of whom still have work to do to catch up with their midfield rivals.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Rosberg, 2. Hamilton, 3. Vettel, 4. Schumacher, 5. Webber, 6. Alonso, 7. Grosjean, 8. Raikkonen, 9. Button, 10. Perez
Race Prediction
1. Rosberg, 2. Hamilton, 3. Schumacher, 4. Alonso, 5. Vettel, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Webber, 8. Perez, 9. Di Resta, 10. Senna
Choosing Hamilton for the win arguably would have been the safe option - the law of averages dictates he's going to win a race sooner or later, and Montreal is one of his best tracks based on past form. My compunction however is that the double-DRS system will allow Rosberg to edge out Hamilton for pole, and as per Shanghai, barring a poor start or botched pit-stop I can't see anyone stopping him. Hamilton will still secure his best result of the year yet with second, but that tantalising wait for a first win will have to go on a little longer. Schumacher meanwhile will take his long-awaited first podium visit since his comeback, ahead of Alonso and Vettel who will slip down to fifth position in light of the Ferrari's generally stronger race pace. Raikkonen will have a relatively low-key run to sixth ahead of Webber, who will return to his old habit of botching the start, with Perez, Paul di Resta and Senna completing the top ten as Button and Massa both fail to add to their respective points tallies.
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