European Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

The Valencia Street Circuit has acquired something of a reputation for producing boring races since it joined the Formula One calendar four years ago. In this most unpredictable of seasons however, that could all be about to change.

Despite being a street track in the technical sense of the term, Valencia’s circuit layout is more akin to a permanent track that happens to be located within a city. It has a series of fairly long, curved straights, particularly by street circuit standards, broken up by numerous slow corners and chicanes with expansive run-off areas. Overtaking has traditionally being extremely challenging, the race having been won from pole position on three of four occasions, and the DRS zone located on the long back straight on the approach to turn 12 is unlikely to make passing much easier. Pirelli will be providing its soft and medium compound tyres for the teams to make use of this weekend, high temperatures likely to make tyre management as important as always.

Incredibly, we’ve had seven different winners from seven races so far, and bidding to make that eight will be the Lotus team. Despite having had an excellent car since the start of the season, neither driver has taken that illusive victory, though both Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean have both a second and third place apiece to their name. Temperatures in Valencia are set to be relatively high, which should benefit the Lotus machine much as it did at Bahrain, but what will determine the extent to which the Renault-powered cars can be in contention will be qualifying, as it has been low grid positions that have arguably prevented them from winning races that they perhaps may have done. Raikkonen has suffered a difficult couple of races through little fault of his own and should be right on the pace if the car is up to task; Grosjean meanwhile managed his tyres excellently at Montreal, a handy skill to be able to count on at a circuit like Valencia. A first win for the Franco-Swiss driver isn’t totally out of the question.

The last two races at Valencia have been won by Sebastian Vettel’s Red Bull, and it would take a brave soul to bet against the German making it a hat-trick. The car’s lack of top-end speed harmed its prospects at Montreal, but its prowess through the twisty stuff is in little doubt. The high temperatures that saw Vettel win in Bahrain will of course help proceedings as well, so it may be tyre wear towards the end of the race that could potentially prove their biggest problem, particularly if the chasing Lotus cars are able to conserve their rubber better. Mark Webber will be equally keen to atone for a disappointing outing at Montreal with traffic and tyre wear, and his Monaco victory should hold him in good stead at a track that features some similar low-speed bends.

Lewis Hamilton appears to be back on top form for good following his Canada win, which always makes him a formidable competitor. However, McLaren’s lack of pace relative to the Red Bull and Lotus cars at Bahrain perhaps makes a second win on the trot a rather tall order for the Brit – it will be interesting to see whether the ‘new improved’ Hamilton will be willing to settle for a fourth or fifth place finish it that is all the car is capable of. Jenson Button on the other hand hardly looks like the same driver that took victory so assuredly at Melbourne. He’s slumped to eighth in the standings following another non-scoring race in which he was lapping faster than only the Marussia cars at certain stages, and desperately needs to find some form as a matter of urgency to maintain any realistic title hopes. Button is set to adopt Hamilton’s set-up for practice in a desperate search for pace, though it remains to be seen if this tactic will bear any fruit.

Fernando Alonso can never be ruled out of the running, not at least at one of his two home circuits, and despite the Ferrari not being particularly quick at Bahrain, it has received a number of major upgrades since. Felipe Massa in the other side of the garage seems to fancy his own chances of becoming winner number eight at a circuit at which he won back in 2008, but that particular prediction does smack somewhat of over-optimism. Michael Schumacher will be equally keen to assert himself after another race-ending gremlin at Canada, but the Mercedes may suffer more severely with tyre wear than most which will render expectations of the seven-time champion and his teammate Nico Rosberg in the race fairly modest, even if the double-DRS system facilitates solid grid positions.

Sergio Perez secured a second podium finish of the year at Canada with another tyre-preservation masterclass, and the Mexican could be on course for another fair haul of points if he can put in another level-headed and consistent drive. Kamui Kobayashi in the other Sauber is in danger of being overshadowed by his teammate, and would do well to re-discover the turn of speed that saw him take seventh at Valencia two years ago. Williams conversely have had something of a lean spell since Pastor Maldonado’s Catalunya victory, but the warm temperatures twinned with slow corners where their car has proved adept previously means a solid points finish is a real possibility for both Maldonado and Bruno Senna.

Qualifying Prediction:
1. Vettel, 2. Webber, 3. Hamilton, 4. Alonso, 5. Grosjean, 6. Rosberg, 7. Raikkonen, 8. Schumacher, 9. Maldonado, 10. Massa

Race Prediction:1. Vettel, 2. Grosjean, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Webber, 5. Hamilton, 6. Alonso, 7. Perez, 8. Massa, 9. Rosberg, 10. Kobayashi

If Vettel puts the Red Bull on pole, which I think he will, it’s hard to see who will stop him barring an uncharacteristic poor start or a mechanical problem. Webber will make it an all-Red Bull front row, but a poor start will knock him off his stride from the get-go. The Lotus cars will make their way through the order much as they did at Bahrain, only this time it will be Grosjean that leads home his more illustrious teammate to secure a second straight runner-up position. Webber will be able to fend off the advances of Hamilton and Alonso behind to take his customary fourth place, with Perez stealthily working his way well inside the points ahead of the second Ferrari of Massa. Rosberg will limp home to ninth as his rear tyres suffer some serious degradation during the closing stages of the race, Kobayashi securing the final point but still finding himself upstaged by his Sauber teammate. Button will remain in the doldrums until further notice, whilst Mercedes’ tyre woes will prevent Schumacher from scoring.