19 July 2012

German Grand Prix 2012 - Preview

It’s fair to say that the modern layout of the Hockenheimring is, at best, a shadow of its former, high-speed self. Since it was redesigned a decade ago, it has failed to provide Formula One fans with the exciting contests the old circuit had become associated with. As was the case with Valencia however, that could all be about to change in 2012.

The present-day, 2.8 mile Hockenheimring is a mix of high, medium and low speed corners, which simultaneously demands strong traction and downforce. With the track absent from last year’s calendar, this will be the first time we see Pirelli tyres and DRS at the circuit – the tyre allocation for the weekend consists of the medium and soft compounds, whilst the DRS zone is located, perhaps predictably, on the long, curved approached to the Spitzkehre hairpin.

The last race at Silverstone perhaps gave us our clearest insight yet as to how this year’s intriguing title battle may unfold. Unquestionably, Red Bull and Ferrari proved the class of the field, with Lotus not far behind at least as far as race pace is concerned. McLaren and Mercedes meanwhile seemed somewhat out of sorts, and found themselves mired in a midfield melee with the Sauber and Williams teams.

Based on last year’s form, few would have given Mark Webber a chance of adding his name to the illustrious list of world champions heading into this season; his emphatic victory at Silverstone is all the evidence required to suggest he does however have a chance of becoming the eldest world champion since Alain Prost in 1993. The Australian has nonetheless not been the most consistent driver since his early run of fourth place finishes, so a strong sequence of podiums could well prove key for Webber if he is to live up to the promise he showed so clearly two weeks ago.

If not for that alternator failure at Valencia, Sebastian Vettel would in fact be leading the championship at this stage. Whilst he may have fallen slightly short of teammate Webber at Silverstone, one can’t help but feel that Vettel remains the more attractive prospect of the Red Bull pairing when it comes to this year’s title. The German suffered a strangely lacklustre performance at home last year, and the event is one of the few remaining on this year’s calendar that he is yet to win. Vettel will no doubt be itching to set straight that particular record, and in doing so re-establish superiority over Webber.

The Hockenheimring is likely to bring back some bad memories for the Ferrari team. It was of course during F1’s last visit to the circuit that Felipe Massa’s race engineer Rob Smedley delivered those immortal words to his driver in his trademark Middlesborough accent – ‘Fernando is faster than you.’  Still, Massa has finished on the podium during his last three Hockenheim outings, and his spirited drive to fourth at Silverstone could well set the tone for the Brazilian's first podium appearance in two years.

Judging how close Fernando Alonso was to back-to-back wins at Valencia and Silverstone, two very different circuits, it’s safe to say that the Ferrari is likely to be quick at most circuits from this point onwards. The Spaniard is always a threat when provided competitive machinery, and has indeed featured on the podium at four of the last five races. His near-metronomic consistency could prove the decisive factor come Interlagos, and it would take a brave man to bet against him ascending the podium once more in Germany.

Given how quick the Lotus car has been on occasions this year, it’s tempting to say that ‘Team Enstone’ ought to have won its first race since Alonso’s victory for Renault at Fuji back in 2008. The majority of Kimi Raikkonen’s race at Silverstone was clearly compromised by Michael Schumacher’s slower Mercedes, and the pace he demonstrated towards the end of the race was indictative of the potential still locked away in that car. It has largely been Saturday when Raikkonen and teammate Romain Grosjean have tended to come up short, making a strong qualifying performance imperative if either driver is to get among the Red Bulls and Ferraris come race day.

With the summer break looming, McLaren need to pull something out of the bag both here at Germany and Hungary to maintain its title hopes in both championships – ideally, Lewis Hamilton needs to take a win either here or next weekend at the Hungaroring. The team are introducing what team principal Martin Whitmarsh promises will be an outwardly noticeable upgrade package in order to help him do just that, though it is going to have to make an immediate and dramatic impact after an abysmal home race for both Hamilton and Jenson Button. With next to no hope of taking the title himself, Button’s goal now has to be to take away as many points from Hamilton's rivals as he can to allow his teammate to put himself firmly in the title hunt.

If Silverstone is anything to go by, Mercedes may be about to experience an equally dismal home race as McLaren did. Michael Schumacher’s undiminished wet-weather prowess may have allowed him to qualify a heady third at the Northamptonshire track, but the car was evidently not up to task in the warm and dry race conditions. Nico Rosberg’s victory at Shanghai must feel like some time ago by now, the team having fallen to a distant fifth in the constructors standings. A cool or even wet race will be the team’s only likely hope of pleasing its home fans as Schumacher and Rosberg bid to try and make up some of the ground the team has lost to its rivals in recent races.

Pastor Maldonado’s latest antics as well as Kamui Kobayashi’s pitlane blunder unfortunately served to deny Sauber any chance of scoring points at Silverstone in spite of the strong early pace they showed, but both Kobayashi and Sergio Perez will probably have the opportunity to re-inforce the team’s stranglehold on sixth in the constructors'. Williams meanwhile have scored just four points since Maldonado’s Spanish GP victory, and risk slipping behind Force India if they can’t score a reasonable haul of points this weekend at a track that should theoretically suit the car.

Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Alonso, 3. Webber, 4. Hamilton, 5. Massa, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Maldonado, 8. Rosberg, 9. Button, 10. Grosjean (penalty)

Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Alonso, 3. Webber, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Hamilton, 6. Massa, 7. Grosjean, 8. Rosberg, 9. Perez, 10. Senna

Red Bull are on some fine form at the moment, and a driver of Vettel’s calibre can’t avoid winning his home race forever. Thus, I’ve backed the home hero for success on Saturday and Sunday, with Alonso and Webber closely in his sights on both occasions. Raikkonen will make his way forward ahead of Hamilton and Massa during the race, with Grosjean unable to do no more than seventh, albeit right behind the second Ferrari, thanks to his five-place grid penalty for a gearbox change. Rosberg will scrape no more than a few points with Schumacher a little further down the order, with Perez and Senna completing the top ten as Button becomes Maldonado’s latest scalp.

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