Silly Season 2012

We’ve once again reached that part of the Formula One season when speculation as to which drivers are heading where traditionally becomes rife. While some of the championship’s biggest names are contracted to their existing teams next year, a number of big hitters are yet to have their destinies decided.

The most significant of these is Lewis Hamilton, whose contract with McLaren expires at the end of the year. A number of costly blunders on the part of the Woking-based team have cost him numerous points so far this year, prompting speculation that the Brit could opt to leave the team with whom he has driven since the start of his F1 career five years ago. Red Bull had been mooted as a potential destination for Hamilton, but the recent confirmation that Mark Webber would stick with the Anglo-Austrian team for at least one more year has ruled such a move out.

Of the race-winning outfits, that leaves potential vacancies only at Ferrari and Mercedes. The former is generally regarded as a no-go for Hamilton as long as Fernando Alonso is at the team (the Spaniard is under contract until the end of 2016) due to their tempestuous relationship as teammates at McLaren. Mercedes meanwhile are seemingly keen to retain Michael Schumacher alongside the contracted Nico Rosberg should he choose to continue, which seems likely as 2012 has been by far the seven-time champion’s most convincing season of his comeback yet.

The smart money is therefore on Hamilton sticking around at McLaren, although a potential sticking point could prove to be the length of a new contract. The team will no doubt be eager to secure Hamilton’s services for as long as they can, but the Brit would do well to avoid commiting himself beyond 2013 as the new engine regulations that come into force for 2014 could well mix up the competitive order – McLaren could find itself at a distinct disadvantage without a works engine deal in place, though a revival of its once-dominant alliance with Honda remains a possibility.

Felipe Massa is another driver whose fate remains uncertain. In the wake of some dire early season performances, the chances of the Brazilian retaining his Ferrari seat seemed non-existent. However, a recent upturn in his form means that there is now a distinct chance he could yet stay at the Maranello team for an eighth successive season. Ferrari Academy member Sergio Perez had marked himself out as a likely candidate to replace Massa with his second place finish at Malaysia, but Ferrari president Luca di Montezemelo is on the record saying that he thinks the Mexican lacks sufficient experience to be offered a Ferrari seat just yet.

If the rumour mill is to be believed, Sebastian Vettel has an option to jump ship from Red Bull to Ferrari in 2014, meaning that any replacement would be signed in all likelihood for just a one-year deal. As well as Perez, other possible candidates include Heikki Kovalainen, who has impressed many onlookers with his performances at Caterham, and Adrian Sutil, who despite having been left on the sidelines for this season is working hard on a return. Massa’s former employers Sauber would probably represent his only chance to remain on the F1 grid should he be shown the door at Ferrari, but emulating compatriot  Rubens Barrichello and competing in IndyCar could prove a more attractive option.

Either way, it appears as if Kamui Kobayashi is in danger of dropping off the grid for next season. The Japanese driver has been largely outshone by Perez so far this season at Sauber, and his lack of sponsorship dollars unfortunately does not make him a particularly interesting prospect for any other team. In addition to Massa, former Toro Rosso driver Jaime Alguersuari is a candidate to replace Kobayashi, who will have the advantage of having been one of Pirelli’s test drivers for this season as well as a considerable sponsorship package. Should Perez be offered a Ferrari drive, Sauber may also find it beneficial to sign their current test driver, Esteban Gutierrez, in order to maintain their myriad of Mexican sponsors.

Another potential avenue for Alguersuari is Force India. With Schumacher likely to stay with Mercedes for another year, there appears to be little chance of either Paul Di Resta or Nico Hulkenberg securing a better drive for next season; Hulkenberg thus runs the risk of being replaced either by Alguersuari or by test driver Jules Bianchi, whose chances of being promoted to a race seat have been recently played up by team boss Vijay Mallya. Bruno Senna is another driver who could find himself in the cold at the end of the year, as he has failed to extract the same pace out of the Williams car as teammate Pastor Maldonado. Test driver Valtteri Bottas has reportedly impressed the Grove-based outfit during Friday practice sessions, and thus stands a good chance of partnering Maldonado if Senna fails to lift his game.

Caterham could offer a reprieve to one of the aforementioned if Kovalainen is indeed selected to partner Alonso at Ferrari next season, though test driver Alexander Rossi is also a contender by virtue of his potentially lucrative American passport, while Vitaly Petrov has probably done enough to stay on board notwithstanding the copious number of rubles he brings to the team. At Marussia, Timo Glock is in theory under lock and key for the next two seasons, whilst positive noises are being made about Charles Pic chances of retention, although the same applied for Jerome D’Ambrosio last year before he was quietly dropped by the team – the Frenchman’s fate will probably boil down to sponsorship. The same goes for HRT’s Narain Karthikeyan, with Pedro de la Rosa under contract in the sister car and test driver Dani Clos in the frame to create an all-Spanish line-up for 2013.

With so many drivers with F1 experience on the sidelines this year – including Sutil, Alguersuari, D’Ambrosio and current Red Bull reserve Sebastien Buemi to name a few – there is a risk that, particularly in the era of no in-season testing, that up-and-coming drivers will be unable to make the illusive final step into the ranks of F1. The rules cater for an extra team and thus an additional two seats, which the FIA should be making more effort to realise in order to help ensure that none of the promising talents from GP2 or World Series by Renault, of which there are many, find their paths blocked.