The Formula One fraternity’s summer break of five weeks is
almost at an end, with races lined up for this weekend and the next at two
classic, high-speed circuits that mark the conclusion of this season’s European
leg.
The first of these is the legendary Spa-Francorchamps
circuit. Nestled deep in the Belgian Ardennes Forest, this hallowed (albeit
shortened) 4.3 mile strip of tarmac has provided us with some truly memorable moments
in recent history – think Damon Hill taking Jordan’s maiden victory in
torrential conditions in 1998, Mika Hakkinen’s masterful pass on Michael
Schumacher at Les Combes in 2000, and Giancarlo Fisichella’s rather unexpected
pole position for Force India three years ago.
The track itself is literally dripping with some of the
finest corners on the F1 calendar – Les Combes, Pouhon, Stavelot, Blanchimont,
and, of course, the fearsome Eau Rouge. The fast, flowing nature of the Spa
track makes it one of the best circuits for overtaking on the calendar, and
more importantly it means that the driver is able to make more of a difference
here than at most tracks. Combined with an infamously unpredictable weather
system and one of the closest F1 seasons in history, all the ingredients for a truly
classic race are here.
Small wonder then, that Spa is often cited as a favourite among
drivers and fans alike, who will no doubt be relieved to hear that the Walloon
government has struck a deal for the track to remain on the calendar until at
least 2015. The frankly unnecessary DRS zone will be, as per last year, located
along the Kemmel Straight between Eau Rouge and Les Combes, whilst the tyre
compounds on offer will be the hard and the medium.
If one man has made Spa his own in recent years, it’s Kimi
Raikkonen. The Finn has triumphed four times here in the past, for both McLaren
and Ferrari, and on the evidence of his performance at Hungary, there’s a
distinct possibility of a fifth Belgian Grand Prix win this weekend. However, the
most obvious potential sticking point is the weather – all of Raikkonen’s
podiums so far this year have come in relatively warm conditions, with his best
performances (Hungary and Bahrain) coming in particularly searing heat.
With Spa being renowned for being cool and occasionally wet,
it is unclear how the Lotus will perform. Raikkonen, along with teammate Romain
Grosjean, should nonetheless be in the running, but it’s unlikely that the
Enstone-built cars will prove to be the strongest package. Whether Raikkonen’s
affinity with the track will allow him to overcome that fact remains to be
seen.
The McLaren is likely to be right in the hunt, as it has
been in both warm and cool conditions this year. Lewis Hamilton has a single
win to his name at Spa, which he secured two years ago, and clinching another
this weekend would serve to put the Brit back in the thick of the title battle.
A victory would furthermore help dispel sour memories of last year’s race,
where Hamilton was the subject of much criticism after clumsily colliding with
a lapped Kamui Kobayashi and subsequently finding himself in the barriers.
Teammate Jenson Button will likewise be eager to get himself
back on the top step of the podium for the first time since Melbourne at a
circuit at which he’s never won. With nine races to go, he seems unwilling to
get behind Hamilton’s title bid just yet, despite himself being no fewer than
88 points in arrears of championship leader Fernando Alonso.
Alonso would probably be glad to see the Belgian weather
gods do their worst, having bagged two pole positions in wet conditions in the
last three events. Though Hungary suggests that the Ferrari is now not as quick
as the Lotus, McLaren or the Red Bull, Spa could scarcely be more different,
with regards to both the track layout and the likely weather conditions. Like
Button, Alonso has never tasted victory at Spa, a statistic he has every chance
of putting right this weekend.
Ferrari have won three of the last five races at the
circuit, one of which came courtesy of Felipe Massa in somewhat controversial
style – he finished second on the road behind Hamilton, who was later penalised
for being deemed to have overtaken Raikkonen illegally. Massa has nine races
left this year to prove he deserves to keep his Ferrari seat, with Heikki
Kovalainen, Sergio Perez, Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg all among the
potential replacements. His goal this weekend has to be to finish as close to
Alonso as possible and deprive several of his title rivals precious points.
Sebastian Vettel was the man who was victorious at Spa last
year, and will be hungry to add to the single win he has claimed so far this
year at Bahrain. He has appeared to re-establish the upper hand over teammate
Mark Webber during the last two races, and continuing to do so will be
imperative to his title aspirations. Webber meanwhile needs to rediscover the
spark he had at Silverstone to ensure his own challenge doesn’t stall; he can’t
really afford to be languishing behind Vettel by more than a handful of points
as the championship reaches its climax.
The Spa circuit should, at least on paper, be kind to
Mercedes, whose double-DRS system will make it one of the most formidable
machines down the long Kemmel Straight. Michael Schumacher will be aiming high
on his 300th Grand Prix outing at the track where he debuted back in
1991; with six Belgian Grand Prix wins to his credit, the German could be the
surprise package of the weekend. Teammate Nico Rosberg will be hoping the
double-DRS helps reverse his fortunes, having taken just two points in the last
three races to Schumacher’s twelve.
Cool conditions tend to favour Sauber, so expect Perez and
Kobayashi to make some serious inroads in the top ten as the race progresses.
Pastor Maldonado meanwhile needs to get himself back on the scoreboard for the
first time since his Barcelona win, having been out-raced by fellow Williams
driver Bruno Senna at Hungary for the first time since the early-season
flyaways. Force India could do with some extra speed to be in contention for
points, whilst Toro Rosso have switched their focus to next season already
after nine straight points-free weekends.
Qualifying
Prediction:
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Rosberg, 4. Alonso, 5. Grosjean, 6.
Raikkonen 7. Schumacher, 8. Webber, 9. Button, 10. Maldonado
Race Prediction
1. Alonso, 2. Hamilton, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Vettel, 5.
Grosjean, 6. Rosberg, 7. Webber, 8. Perez, 9. Schumacher, 10. Kobayashi
Although Hamilton will have the one-lap pace to take pole
position, the cool and possibly wet conditions make Alonso a safer bet for the
win. Raikkonen will have to hang on somewhat for his first post-comeback
victory, just coming out on top in a fierce battle with Vettel. Rosberg will
slip somewhat from his lofty grid position without the help of double-DRS in
the race, coming home behind Grosjean who stands to complete his first race lap
around the Spa circuit (remember his collision with Button on lap one in
2009?). Webber will endure a somewhat
disappointing weekend, as will Button, who will fail to score with the cool
track preventing him from warming his tyres effectively. Perez and Kobayashi will
both break into the top ten either side of Schumacher with the Sauber showing
strongly.
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