Three races left, and two men in (realistic) contention for the ultimate prize. Excuse the cliché, but this weekend's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix truly is make-or-break for Fernando Alonso. He's 13 points down on championship leader Sebastian Vettel, and if the German is able to extend that further on Sunday there will be a realistic chance of him heading to the season finale in Brazil with a 25 point lead - and thus a third world title - in his pocket.
There's no denying the glamour of Abu Dhabi, and the unique day-night timeslot does make for an intriguing spectacle. While the track layout is far from classic, being as it is characterised by a pair of lengthy straights and numerous right-angled corners, it is more reminiscent of Singapore than Korea or India. Hopefully that will translate into a tighter battle for honours than what we've become accustomed to recently.
Strong traction will come in handy for the more technical section in the latter half of the lap, whilst solid top speed will also be a must to avoid becoming a sitting duck in the DRS zones, located as ever along the two aforementioned straights on the approach to turns 8 and 11 respectively. The teams will be utilising the medium and soft tyre compound choices this time, meaning that there should be more degradation than we saw during the relatively sedate affair that was India.
Though the Abu Dhabi circuit is theoretically less suited to the dominant Red Bull RB8 than the last two venues have been, it would take a brave man to bet against Vettel making it five in a row. He has tasted victory twice here in only three attempts, and if not for that bizarre first-corner puncture last year he could easily have had a perfect record. The events of last year however is a timely reminder to F1 fans that the law of averages will probably strike sooner or later.
It's worth reflecting at this stage that without Vettel's alternator failure at Valencia, he would in all likelihood have a 45 point lead (taking into account Alonso slipping from first to second) by this stage and every chance of sealing the deal this weekend. Looking at the Ferrari camp, while there have been two non-finishes for Alonso, neither were caused by car failure. Alonso will no doubt he hoping that the Red Bull gremlins that have served to keep in touch with the championship leader strike again before the year is out.
Abu Dhabi is of course a track that doesn't bring back fond memories for Alonso. He arrived at the track in 2010 with the odds in his favour to bag a third word title, yet it was rank outsider Vettel who walked away with the silverware. The Spaniard is going to have to rely on the new upgrades being brought along by Ferrari this weekend being enough for him to at least qualify on the first two rows, and then let his sizzling race pace do the rest. Having teammate Felipe Massa in the mix, as he was in Korea, would also be a bonus.
McLaren have finally admitted that their chances of securing either title are over, but that's not to say that they won't be trying. In the hands of Hamilton, the McLaren was by a small margin the fastest car at Singapore, so there's no reason why the Brit can't be in contention for a second consecutive Abu Dhabi victory on Sunday.
Button wasn't quite on his teammate's pace at India, but the fact he kept Vettel honest after Hamilton's demise at Singapore should give him optimism that he can get himself in the hunt. A competitive McLaren team can only help Alonso, as simply finishing second behind Vettel again won't be good enough - at least if he can't get on terms with Red Bull, having a McLaren or two ahead of Vettel will soften the blow in terms of lost points.
Another man who could prove useful in that respect is Kimi Raikkonen, who looked to have strong race pace at India despite being bottled up Massa for nearly the entire distance. The Mercedes cars should be competitive in a straight line, as should the Toro Rossos, whilst the second part of the lap should favour the Williams car. With its street-circuit like layout, Pastor Maldonado is another man you ought to look out for this weekend.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Webber, 4. Alonso, 5. Massa, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Button, 8. Maldonado, 9. Rosberg, 10. Grosjean
Race Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Alonso, 4. Button, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Massa, 7. Maldonado, 8. Grosjean, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Senna
I'm going to put my optimistic hat on once more and predict a Hamilton victory, which will allow Alonso to drop just three points as opposed to seven. Webber will drop behind Alonso at the start before bearing the brunt of Red Bull unreliability again. That will allow Button into fourth place, who will just get the better of Raikkonen's Lotus and the second Ferrari of Massa. Maldonado will have a strong drive to seventh ahead of Grosjean, who will in turn just about fend off the advances of Hulkenberg. Senna will have to fight his way past numerous cars to take tenth place, but he proved last weekend he's no slouch at doing so.
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